Holy crap -- cargo shipping has *collapsed* in a massive way... | |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 342843 United States 10/30/2008 01:28 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here's another chart of BDI, going back to 2001. Look at the total cliff dive it has taken in the last few months: [link to www.investmenttools.com] Amazing. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 380667 United States 10/30/2008 02:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | How long till the shelves go empty? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 488191Exactly. This is what to watch for. I work for a sportswear company...every time I go to work, I buy something....I buy socks, good tee-shirts, warm, practical clothes and shoes, etc. I am buying for myself and for my family members. Because my co-workers right now think I'm goofy because I buy something...but they do not realize that either we'll stop seeing merch on the shelves or we won't have the means to buy it or go to buy it. Americans have been conditioned to seeing full shelves at the malls and at the grocery stores. When this begins to happen, those people will not understand or realize what is happening. A few weeks ago I needed to buy a basic, plain women's brown belt. Either the stores had crap or they were way too expensive...or they simply had nothing to choose from like in year's past. What I'm wondering is: What is it going to be like after Christmas? The 4th quarter earnings are going to be horrible. This will domino effect. None of those merchants will buy because they have limited funds and because they need to sell the stuff they didn't sell at Christmas time. I don't know the time frame but the shelves will definately start to go empty. I also think, depending on what section of the country you are living... some are seeing it before others are. |
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falldown User ID: 520470 United States 10/30/2008 02:07 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times? ~ ~ "He who does not understand your silence will probably not understand your words." ~Elbert Hubbard |
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Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 342843 United States 10/30/2008 02:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times? Quoting: falldownWell, here's what some guy said on a financial forum: "What's going on is a credit crunch, LC and LOC [letters of credit] freeze, and a drying up of dry cargo trade. Capesize freighters are getting only $6,365 per day (from $163,563/day one year ago, $235,000 peak) which is their daily COST. They tried slowing down from 11 knots to 8, now they will just park them in the offing and wait. Total collapse of global trade. Unbelievable. 11750 peak BDI 885 now. -92.5%" |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 490844 United States 10/30/2008 02:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843Well, here's what some guy said on a financial forum: "What's going on is a credit crunch, LC and LOC [letters of credit] freeze, and a drying up of dry cargo trade. Capesize freighters are getting only $6,365 per day (from $163,563/day one year ago, $235,000 peak) which is their daily COST. They tried slowing down from 11 knots to 8, now they will just park them in the offing and wait. Total collapse of global trade. Unbelievable. 11750 peak BDI 885 now. -92.5%" which marks a BOTTOM. (the world has not ended). buy the stocks and get rich. once in a lifetime buy. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 342843 United States 10/30/2008 02:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times? Quoting: falldownOkay, here's a BDI chart going all the way to 1985: [link to wallstreetpit.com] We have clearly been in the middle of an "irrational exuberance" period as you put it from about 2003 where shipping spiked through the roof. Now, it looks we're crashing back to reality. |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 342843 United States 10/30/2008 02:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | which marks a BOTTOM. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 490844(the world has not ended). buy the stocks and get rich. once in a lifetime buy. Ahem... Beware Bottom Callers [link to market-ticker.org] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 490844 United States 10/30/2008 02:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843Okay, here's a BDI chart going all the way to 1985: [link to wallstreetpit.com] We have clearly been in the middle of an "irrational exuberance" period as you put it from about 2003 where shipping spiked through the roof. Now, it looks we're crashing back to reality. whats the bloomberg symbol for that index? |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 490844 United States 10/30/2008 02:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | which marks a BOTTOM. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843(the world has not ended). buy the stocks and get rich. once in a lifetime buy. Ahem... Beware Bottom Callers [link to market-ticker.org] oh i don't go all in. but we are close enough that i will bracket it. |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 485382 United States 10/30/2008 02:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Check out this chart of the Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping activity around the world: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843[link to i66.photobucket.com] It has absolutely plunged from a peak this year (May) of 11,750 down to 885 this month! That's a ginormous drop! The BDI is considered a good indicator of future economic activity, because much of the material being shipped are raw resources to make things. If those resources aren't shipping, then nobody is making (or selling or buying) anything. Yup! I saw the first cargo shipping commercial on TV for anyone to ship anything anywhere! When they have to advertise it is bad..... the end is near! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 129376 United States 10/30/2008 03:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Check out this chart of the Baltic Dry Index, which measures shipping activity around the world: Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843OP, very interesting, thanks for posting. One thing however, the index is an index of shipping prices, not shipping activity. Obviously there's a direct correlation, but there is a difference. [link to en.wikipedia.org] According to Baltic Exchange, the index provides: an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain. |
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Isaac Brock died for us User ID: 535709 Canada 10/30/2008 03:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843Well, here's what some guy said on a financial forum: "What's going on is a credit crunch, LC and LOC [letters of credit] freeze, and a drying up of dry cargo trade. Capesize freighters are getting only $6,365 per day (from $163,563/day one year ago, $235,000 peak) which is their daily COST. They tried slowing down from 11 knots to 8, now they will just park them in the offing and wait. Total collapse of global trade. Unbelievable. 11750 peak BDI 885 now. -92.5%" The credit crunch has really made it difficult to ship things. Aside from that, there is a fundamental change going on too. For example boots. Canadians used to buy "made in Canada" boots which were very high quality. For the last 10 years, most work boots have been made in places like Vietnam. Lately the manufacturers have realised that the cost of shipping leather to Vietnam and then shipping boots back, eats up all the savings on the lower labour costs. Boot manufacturing in Canada is making a comeback. There are probably other consumer industries where they are going back to local manufacturing. Globalisation doesn't always make economic sense. owner of an extensive collection of curios from the exotic orient |
Isaac Brock died for us User ID: 535709 Canada 10/30/2008 03:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yeah, but how's it compare to the 80s-90s, before "irrational exuberance"? Is it because of a collapse in demand (although I'm sure some is), or because shippers went overboard in better times? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 342843Well, here's what some guy said on a financial forum: "What's going on is a credit crunch, LC and LOC [letters of credit] freeze, and a drying up of dry cargo trade. Capesize freighters are getting only $6,365 per day (from $163,563/day one year ago, $235,000 peak) which is their daily COST. They tried slowing down from 11 knots to 8, now they will just park them in the offing and wait. Total collapse of global trade. Unbelievable. 11750 peak BDI 885 now. -92.5%" The credit crunch has really made it difficult to ship things. Aside from that, there is a fundamental change going on too. For example boots. Canadians used to buy "made in Canada" boots which were very high quality. For the last 10 years, most work boots have been made in places like Vietnam. Lately the manufacturers have realised that the cost of shipping leather to Vietnam and then shipping boots back, eats up all the savings on the lower labour costs. Boot manufacturing in Canada is making a comeback. There are probably other consumer industries where they are going back to local manufacturing. Globalisation doesn't always make economic sense. owner of an extensive collection of curios from the exotic orient |
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