| | | Page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28 | Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change.
| FHL(C)
User ID: 305088
9/29/2007 12:29 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
One should never overlook the high jinx games played by the Knights of the Oval Table. In summer 2006, Goldman Sachs in a bold careless display reduced the weight on their GS Commodity Index for unleaded gasoline from 9% to 2%. The $100 billion invested in funds tied to the GSCI index forced $7 billion in gasoline contract sales. Gasoline prices plummeted as ordered. Of course, no insider trading and market manipulation charges ensued, not for a Knight. My guess is that last week the EIA energy inventory data was falsified bullish, since GoldSax probably helped push the crude oil price over 80. Now comes the profit taking event, as crude oil dips below 80, giving a buying opportunity to the shrewd. Lo and behold, today the EIA energy inventory data was bearish in slightly increasing supply. This game reminds me of the soldier death count from the Vietnam War. They were so bad on given weeks, that military officials smoothed the data from week to week so as to eliminate shockingly high death counts on a single week. Pushing down the crude oil price is essential for defense of the USDollar, as many arbitrage trades link the US$ with crude oil in inverse fashion. Defend the buck with a decline engineered in the crude oil price. The flip side is a surging crude oil price foretells of a serious USDollar failure.
A higher oil price will have to fight against a head wind of recessionary forces, like lower energy demand both at the industrial and consumer sectors. Higher costs will slow the USEconomy markedly. The conclusion is STAGFLATION, from the worsening recession and its growing awareness. A weaker USDollar with a slower USEconomy is precisely what has been called stagflation. Terrific money supply expansion is clearly next, coming, assured. The goal is to avert a dreaded recession, which in my view is unavoidable. Higher prices across the spectrum from a weaker USDollar are a guaranteed outcome. The housing and bond and banking problems are too deep and intractable right now, weighed down by insolvency scourges more than illiquidity challenges.
THE ANOMALY CONFIRMS STAGFLATION
The USTreasury Bond market has defied the USFed and its urgent rate cut decision. Clearly, the USFed has put defense of the economy from recession as a much higher suddenly urgent priority than fighting price inflation. This constitutes an abrupt 'ABOUT FACE' reversal, one of consequent embarrassment! With money supply growing at over 14% annually, inflation is the policy. My title of the USFed as the Dept of Inflation, and the chairman post as the Secy of Inflation, are well deserved. They manage inflation, staff the printing press, order the emergency output, and double in service as disaster bubble bust insurance underwriters. People actually regard this as normal, when it is heretical.
When the USFed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, both for the Fed Funds (bank loans to banks), and for the Discount Rate (bank loans from the Fed itself), the USTreasury Yield Curve has responded. THE SHORT END HAS SEEN SLIGHTLY LOWER RATES, INDICATIVE OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN. The bond market believes the USFed sees that slowdown finally. The 2-year TBill yield fell below 4.0% for a time, but since have moved above that level, only to fall below it today again. My interpretation is that the bond market anticipates a highly likely economic recession. The other conclusion is the Treasury Bond market is making a statement that the USFed will make one more 50 basis point rate cut. The USFed official Fed Funds target is now at 4.75%, with another identical cut sending it to 4.25% next month perhaps. The 2-year TBill, if it continues under 4.0%, signals a continued rate easing cycle. We have not arrived at that point yet, yet, yet. The ratio of the 10-year TNote yield over the 2-year TBill yield is useful. While not a yield spread, the ratio indicates a clear trend. Look at the reaction after Sept 18th, which is a widening of the spread and thus a rise in the ratio.
The longer term trend is revealing also. Immediately after the official rate cut decision, the 10-year TNote yield rose. Market watchers noticed. Pundits commented upon the anomaly. Not enough attention has been brought to this anomaly. THE LONG END HAS SEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATES, INDICATIVE OF THE ONSET OF WORSE PRICE INFLATION. The 10-year TNote yield has fluctuated in a tight range between 4.55% and 4.70% for the last several days. Clearly, many bond traders are shifting from long-term maturity bonds to short-term bonds, to reduce risk. My interpretation is that the bond market anticipates a highly likely trend of price inflation in the coming quarters. Another ugly implication is the housing market might not receive much assistance from the lending rate structure, in particular for fixed mortgage rates.
CONFIRMATION OF WORST OF BOTH WORLDS
Foreigners should tremble with a falling USDollar exchange rate coupled with a rising long-term bond yield. Investment funds in China or Japan or the Saudis or Arab nations face a double loss, one from bond principal and two from currency exchange. This rebellion in the 10-year and 30-year TBonds represents the ultimate nightmare in frustration for the hampered hamstrung hidebound US Federal Reserve. A steeper USTreasury yield curve is a horrible scenario, a confirmation of stagflation potential, and a failure on both ends of their policy initiatives. The USFed wants low price inflation with economic growth. STAGFLATION means the opposite on both scores, a double failure.
STAGFLATION IS THE OPTIMAL CONDITION FOR GOLD, AS THE ECONOMY STALLS, MONEY IS PUMPED INTO THE SYSTEM, BUT PRICE INFLATION RISES. The bigger picture trend can be seen with a chart over almost three years in the USTreasury Yield Curve. Notice the moving average crossover in June, when the 20-week MA traversed above the 50-week MA. Serious gyrations have been seen in August and September, in market uncertainty. After months and months of utter stupidity in economic analysis, proclaiming a strong USEconomy, the envy of the world, the haven of the downtrodden, the USFed finally acknowledges the tide has shifted toward the other side. The world sees the United States as a land of a deflating housing bubble, the site of an unspeakable asset-backed bond fraud, and the location of desperate central bank policy fully exported to other central banks. The steeper USTreasury Yield Curve, simply stated, should be regarded as a loud statement that the future prices of items of all kinds will be higher than today. Like in any other commodity market, the steeper future prices of money indicates we have entered the price inflation picture. What is true of a natural gas steep curve, or a copper metal steep curve, is true in the price of money itself also.
HOUSING CURVE BALL
A radically messy curve ball has been pitched against the policy makers at bat. The mortgage rates for fixed 30-year contracts will not likely come down. Those who wish to avoid the quicksand trap of adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) will find little satisfaction. This is the exact opposite of what the USFed officials desired. Notice their silence. The acidic time bombs known as ARMs will once again be pursued, not so much by choice, but rather by lack of alternatives. The challenges will be to find a lender willing to lend with risk to besieged borrowers, to find a lender flush with available funds to lend, to find properties properly priced whose buyers have a big enough down payment stake to withstand more equity decline. Then you have the LIBOR challenge, which is tied to about 25% of US-based ARM mortgages. Fortunately, the LIBOR rates have ratcheted down, probably as a result of some government interference, or actions taken by their Knights.
In the last few weeks, a new concept has entered the lexicon. For a few years we have read of Twin Deficits from the federal budget and the trade gap. Fresh on the billboards is the home equity deficit from under-water homeowners whose loan balances exceed their home values, the harsh reality of falling prices. The Mod Squads whose uphill task is to renegotiate the loan terms, deal with pre-payment penalties, write down loan balances, fix rates, forgive a monthly payment, will remain daunted and nearly impossible. The eventual inevitable climax of the RESCUE CORNUCOPIA will be a grandiose RESOLUTION CORPORATION to handle both asset-backed bond liquidation but also refinanced mortgages. They must enable a strong home buyer bid, but also provide some transparency on mortgage bonds. Both are crippling problems.
GOLD SOON TO TAKE CENTER STAGE
Look for housing prices to ignore the USFed and continue downward. My expectation is that the USFed and USGovt will embark on broad, deep, and significant rescue package measures, each to be futile for as much as another year. The main driving forces will be the continued relentless bear market in housing from a worsening inventory problem, and the downward momentum in the USEconomy. The existing home inventory rose to a mindboggling 10.0 months of supply in August. Foreclosures are threatening to rise year over year by 100%. No evidence of a bottom or of stability is remotely evident. The first rescue motion was the reduction in the Discount Window rate. Next was the President's remarkably hollow FHA refinance package deal. My guess is few will even qualify, unless they abandon all requirements to qualify. Then came the USFed official rate cut, coupled with another Discount Rate cut. As each rescue package measure is piled on, one after the other, gold will lift higher.
The shift in priority away from defense against price inflation will be starkly clear, in favor of preventing an unstoppable recession. Some pundits, even in the gold community, expect a USEconomic recession to be averted. With most central banks growing their money supply at 13% to 14% or greater, we are entering modern day Weimar times. Gold is gaining attention. The 735 price high for gold has been exceeded, but not convincingly. The HUI precious metal mining stock index has broken out to new highs, but again not convincingly. The USDollar defense counter maneuvers have begun, possibly centered on crude oil. One might take the technical chart manual and declare that the HUI has only retreated to the breakout level, to ensure consolidation, before the next bigger leg in the breakout. My image of a diving springboard always comes to mind. Time will tell. More weak economic news to join the weak housing data will add to the urgency for the USFed to continue in rate cuts enough to warrant calling it a NEW EASING CYCLE. That will be anathema for the USDollar but great for gold.
Lastly, a little noticed event took place. The USGovt just received early approval of a lift in the official federal debt limit. The previous limit in force has been $8965 billion. The new limit is set to become $9820 billion, another cool trillion$. The USGovt federal debt has risen by double since the current diminutive leader took office in January 2001. The higher limit will enable additional debts to be authorized by the federal government. Do foreigners have an appetite for them, or are they entrenched in the early stages of a boycott, as stated in my prediction? Meanwhile, net foreign capital inflows have dropped from $181.9 billion in Q1 to $150.9 billion in Q2. The bad news is that this might be insufficient to cover the Current Account deficit of $190.79 billion in Q2. The US financial balance sheet is in trouble. Can you say NATIONAL INSOLVENCY??? The historical response is for fast rising interest rates generally in defense. Increasing desperation will be very evident in the coming months. Gold will head toward $1000. In time, whether triggered by $800 gold or the passage of six weeks time for money to filter down to the junior mining niche of stocks, the HUI will be vaulting to new highs!!!
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[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 305088
9/29/2007 12:33 AM | | FHL(C)
User ID: 305088
9/29/2007 12:47 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FU&FW
To say this fdic thing is disingenuous is way worse than an understatement, if any average person was informed of this when they decided to do business with a bank, as reason for security in putting money in a bank, they would reassess their strategy, and probably cap their deposits.
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
^TrInItY^
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9/28/2007 11:13 PM
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Re: Major USA Bank Failure Today!!!!! Netbank - (FDIC) was named Receiver. Quote
In another thread, someone said we need to read the FDIC "fine print" -- they have you insured up to $100,000 -- BUT, fine print: they have up to 99 years to pay back your $100,000.
Quoting: Flipper 305045
that is true
even my banker told me this
[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 183770
9/29/2007 12:53 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FHL(C);
Don't get your knickers in a twist over any of this.
The stock market will go where "they" want it to go.
The price of gold will go where "they" want it to go.
The 'economy' will go where "they" want it to go.
We're being fools to think we can second guess them.
 |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 305088
9/29/2007 1:31 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FU&FW
with thanks to
Redheaded Stepchild
User ID: 295324
9/28/2007 2:00 PM
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Grocery Bills to Soar as Grain Prices Surge (WSJ)
Quote
[link to money.aol.com]
Grocery Bills to Soar as Grain Prices Surge
By SCOTT KILMAN, The Wall Street Journal,
Posted: 2007-09-28 08:56:58
Rising prices and surging demand for the crops that supply half of the world's calories are producing the biggest changes in global food markets in 30 years, altering the economic landscape for everyone from consumers and farmers to corporate giants and the world's poor.
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 305088
9/29/2007 1:32 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FHL(C);
Don't get your knickers in a twist over any of this.
The stock market will go where "they" want it to go.
The price of gold will go where "they" want it to go.
The 'economy' will go where "they" want it to go.
We're being fools to think we can second guess them.
thanks, i am not, its a record of what was and will be.
[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 305088
9/29/2007 1:45 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FU&FW
with thanks to Eyes wide open and
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 305046
9/29/2007 1:28 AM
Report abusive post
Re: One World - Jeremiah Films - Earths Soon Coming Last Days Quote
The Vortex Strategy: Part 2
by Chuck Missler
The Plot Thickens
Last month we reviewed the increasingly difficult predicament we face in attempting to position ourselves-and our families-in this volatile world. In addition to the terrorist threats and other geopolitical tensions, the mismanagement of our own national financial scene appears increasingly problematic.
Another Tremor
The subprime mortgage mess metastasized into a full-blown global credit crisis last month, crushing stocks in Europe as well as the U.S.
The meltdown began in France and forced the European Central Bank to inject more than $130 billion into the continental banking system so that it wouldn’t seize up entirely. Standard and Poor’s said that move was unprecedented.
The Federal Reserve (which is neither federal nor a reserve) put more than $60 billion into the U.S. banking system. Unlike previous sell-offs, which were concentrated in specific sectors, this one cut across the entire stock market. Investors increasingly seem to fear that the problems among the big investment banks are proving bigger than expected.
International investors now own $672 billion of the $835.4 billion worth of Treasuries due in 3-10 years.1 A record 80% of the Treasury notes due in 3-10 years are foreign owned. Not since the 19th century have foreigners held so much American debt.2
Another way to examine our reserves is to take a look at our checkbook and compare it with others:
Rank Current Account Balance3
1 China $179,100,000,000
2 Japan 174,400,000,000
3 Germany 134,800,000,000
4 Russia 105,300,000,000
5 Saudi Arabia 103,800,000,000
6 Norway 63,350,000,000
7 Switzerland 50,440,000,000
. . . . . . . .
159 France -38,000,000,000
160 Austria -41,620,000,000
161 U.K. -57,680,000,000
162 Spain -96,600,000,000
163 United States -862,300,000,000
Out of 163 countries, we rank dead last. In fact, we are nine times worse off than the runner up-Spain-who is recognized as a near-bankrupt nation in the financial press.
(I understand that Spain just sold off 80 of their remaining 90 tons of gold from their national treasury to “stay afloat” a little longer.)4
The Federal Government recorded a $1.3 trillion loss last year-far more than the official $248 billion deficit-when GAAP accounting standards are applied.5
“The gap between future U.S. receipts and future U.S. government obligations now totals $65.9 trillion, a sum that is impossible for the U.S. to reconcile, which means the U.S. is now technically bankrupt.”6
But it gets worse. In fact, our most disturbing predicament is being prepared “under the radar” and deliberately.
The Deliberate Destruction of America
That sounds like a conspiracy theory, doesn’t it? Well, it is. And it is really happening.7 There is no intention of our present administration to enforce our borders.
There is a well-laid-out plan to merge the United States with Canada and Mexico. There are several dozen working groups laying out the administrative regulations. There are extensive construction projects preparing a “NAFTA Superhighway” to expedite goods from Lázaro Cárdenas, on the Pacific Coast of Mexico, through Laredo, Texas, to the Kansas City “SmartPort” (an electronic port of entry to be regarded as Mexican territory), on though Duluth, Minnesota to Canada.
Most of these facilities are being built by foreign investors, so we will have to pay to use them. They are being designed to expedite goods from China to the entire North American Union.
(China and Wal-Mart are investing $300 million just to upgrade the container handling facilities at Lázaro Cárdenas. China already controls facilities at Long Beach, California, and at both ends of the Panama Canal.)
What is particularly disturbing is that this is all being done covertly, without the benefit of public discourse. It is being denied by the administration, and yet it would seem to be treasonous-the very disenfranchisement of the entire electorate and its assets.
The primary whistle-blower on this is our dear friend, Jerry Corsi, whose blockbuster book, The Late Great U.S.A., just came out. It is a must read for any American.
(Jerry will also be a featured speaker at our Annual International Meeting of the Koinonia Institute, November 9-11, 2007, at the Coeur d’Alene Resort. He will also give our KI students a private insider’s briefing on the evening prior, November 8th. Join us if you possibly can. But register early: it will be a sell out and space is limited.)
You and I aren’t likely to change the course of history, but we can exercise prudence in our personal and family preparations.
A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished.
Proverbs 22:3
What is your action plan to protect yourself and your family?
Our times are uniquely uncertain and impossible to predict. Will we have a depression? Will we have hyperinflation? Will we experience logistic upheavals? The optimum strategy under conditions of uncertainty is mobility. In financial terms, that’s called liquidity. So that leads us to our basic four-step strategy, which we call “the Vortex Strategy.” It is disarmingly simple, but absolutely essential:
The Vortex Strategy
1) Lower your cost of living
2) Get out of debt
3) Guard your liquidity
4) The most important factor of all
1. Lower Your Cost of Living
Don’t count on increases in your income. Live beneath your means so that you have something extra at the end of each month. That will be your ticket to financial freedom.
A useful hint: review the allocations of your time. Are there indulgences that are expensive and yet might not stand scrutiny from a cost/reward relationship? Often our most enjoyable involvements are not necessarily tied up with capitalized indulgences. Simplify in order to win what really counts.
2. Get Out of Debt
Debt is a presumption on the future and is contrary to God’s plan for your life: the borrower is slave to the lender (Proverbs 22:7).
Use the increments from Step 1 to refinance variable rate mortgages and eliminate credit card debt. Establish and control your budget as if your life depends upon it: it does!
3. Guard Your Liquidity
Once debt is under control, use the margin from Step 1 to establish reserves. Diversify your holdings among different asset classes. Straddle industries, borders, and currencies.
Strive to maintain liquidity, not maximize earnings. That’s for later when the horizon is more clearly in focus.
Lastly, get your assets out of reach from your adversaries: know who they are and take precautionary steps before they’re needed. Some tactical alternatives for Step 3 will be the subject of our article next month, “The Vortex Strategy: Part 3.”
4. The Most Important Factor of All
Learn the supernatural elements of stewardship. This is the solution to all financial problems!
The Secret Weapon: The Tithe
Abraham, the “Father of the Faithful,” left us an example to follow. The tithe (or “tenth”) is clearly the ordained pattern in the Old Testament,8 and in the New Testament nothing has changed. Christ did not set aside the tithe.9 The fact that Christ is our High Priest after the order of Melchizedek, not the Levitical priesthood, makes Abraham’s tithing to him an example for each of us.
There appears to be at least four reasons for the remarkable institution of the tithe:
1) It acknowledges the Creator’s rights. The Tenth of all is His.
2) It is the antidote for greed and covetousness.
3) It is a test of our faith.
4) It is the solution to every financial problem.
In fact, it would appear even more binding on us since our privileges are greater:
For unto whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required.
Luke 12:48
Bring ye all the tithes into the storehouse, That there may be meat in mine house, And prove me now herewith, saith the Lord of hosts, If I will not open you the windows of heaven, And pour you out a blessing, that there shall not be room enough to receive it.
Malachi 3:10
The only other use of the peculiar phrase “windows of heaven”10 is the “abundant outpouring” of the Genesis Flood!11 Can you imagine that phrase-“the windows of heaven”-being applied to your financial situation?
God changes not. He does not vary the principles of His government. God will not be your debtor! He is asking, “Trust Me.” Do you?
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 302909
9/29/2007 3:14 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
Watch the stock markets it can't be long now for the long awaited/expected *ALL-TIME NEW HIGHS*.
This has got to be one of the more dumber threads ever.
3 years after claiming a correction, the stock market is at its best levels.
:rflmao: |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 305088
9/29/2007 3:49 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
Watch the stock markets it can't be long now for the long awaited/expected *ALL-TIME NEW HIGHS*.
This has got to be one of the more dumber threads ever.
3 years after claiming a correction, the stock market is at its best levels.
:rflmao:
not hard to tell your a shill, either an ignorant one or paid one, either way, volume tells you nothing about value , or even recent historical comparison, so get and education and read the thread. Also , you must have it now types really don't understand time because of your selfish gratificational immediacy , soon can be measured in much longer terms than seconds dependent on many factors.
[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 294846
9/29/2007 4:39 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FHL(C);
Don't get your knickers in a twist over any of this.
The stock market will go where "they" want it to go.
The price of gold will go where "they" want it to go.
The 'economy' will go where "they" want it to go.
We're being fools to think we can second guess them.
That's not entirely true. Rules of the market follow psychological principals. Give too much of a psychological stimulant, and accommodation occurs. Give too little, and the stimulant doesn't provide enough benefit-cost. Americans have become accommodated. We don't value money, so we don't care if we're paying 400 bux for a iphone. We don't care if we're paying 450k for a house that used to cost 250k. We don't care if we're paying 10 bux for a cocktail. |
| rodin
User ID: 295520
9/29/2007 4:56 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
4. The Most Important Factor of All
Learn the supernatural elements of stewardship. This is the solution to all financial problems!
The Secret Weapon: The Tithe
Abraham, the “Father of the Faithful,” left us an example to follow. The tithe (or “tenth”) is clearly the ordained pattern in the Old Testament,8 and in the New Testament nothing has changed. Christ did not set aside the tithe.9 The fact that Christ is our High Priest after the order of Melchizedek, not the Levitical priesthood, makes Abraham’s tithing to him an example for each of us.
There appears to be at least four reasons for the remarkable institution of the tithe:
1) It acknowledges the Creator’s rights. The Tenth of all is His.
2) It is the antidote for greed and covetousness.
3) It is a test of our faith.
4) It is the solution to every financial problem.
In fact, it would appear even more binding on us since our privileges are greater:
For unto whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required.
Luke 12:48
Bring ye all the tithes into the storehouse, That there may be meat in mine house, And prove me now herewith, saith the Lord of hosts, If I will not open you the windows of heaven, And pour you out a blessing, that there shall not be room enough to receive it.
Malachi 3:10
The only other use of the peculiar phrase “windows of heaven”10 is the “abundant outpouring” of the Genesis Flood!11 Can you imagine that phrase-“the windows of heaven”-being applied to your financial situation?
God changes not. He does not vary the principles of His government. God will not be your debtor! He is asking, “Trust Me.” Do you?
[ link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Who collects this 10% 'tithe'?
Belief is the Enemy of Truth |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 306329
10/1/2007 8:42 PM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
Credit derivative volumes rise 32 pct to $45.5 trln
Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:20am EDT
Email | Print | Digg | Reprints | Single Page | Recommend (-)
[-] Text [+]
NEW YORK, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Global volumes in credit derivatives grew 32 percent in the first half of 2007, and are up 75 percent on the year, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said on Wednesday.
Credit derivatives volumes surged to $45.46 trillion, from $34.42 trillion at the end of 2006, ISDA said. Interest rate derivatives also grew 21 percent in the same period to $347.09 trillion, from $285.73 trillion, with volumes increasing 38 percent on the year.
"We expect this strong volume to continue over the 2007 second half, as privately negotiated derivatives have provided liquidity and functioned efficiently through the recent market volatility," Robert Pickel, chief executive officer of ISDA, said in a release.
Over-the-counter derivatives are privately negotiated contracts and are not traded on exchanges.
Volumes in equity derivatives also grew 39 percent in the first half of the year, and are up 57 percent over the past year, to $10.01 trillion, ISDA said. Volumes in the securities were $7.18 trillion at year end. |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 306883
10/3/2007 3:09 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FU&FW
[link to www.jsmineset.com]
Posted On: Sunday, September 30, 2007, 11:07:00 PM EST
Prayers Are All That Keep The OTC Firestorm From Exploding Into The Limelight
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear CIGAs,
There still is a firestorm out there and as long as it can be kept behind the curtain of public view the longer the timeline the central bankers have to pray it will go away. The problem is the gigantic mountain of credit and default derivatives. What is incredible is the total size of the derivative mountain wherein notional value becomes real value when these derivatives are called upon to perform and performance is nowhere to be found. No wonder the major improvement in the commercial paper and CDO markets is widening of spreads which basically means not much at all. A stock drops from $100 to $5. The market is a $5 bid offered at $6. The market now becomes a $4 bid offered at $8. That improvement is basically nothing.
With housing dragging at the US economy, central banks must do everything possible to keep equities from unraveling. The level of the equity indices are all that is left of the “Wealth Effect.” That means finding an accelerant for equities lies in the pouring of more gas on the fire of international liquidity. This is a global phenomenon and not a situation limited to the unwinding of the many Greenspan bubbles of the past few years.
At the center of the Earth there is a molten ball of magma that always seeks fissures through which to escape. When it escapes it blows the hell out of everything. It is then witnessed as an erupting volcano. This is what we are dealing with here. The molten ball is an unimaginable heap of unfinanced, non transparent, unregulated paper called over the counter derivatives. The fissures you have been seeing are the CDOs, mortgages (forget the spin title subprime), brokerage house tittering even among the halls of Wall Street Ivy, the collapse of so many so called but clearly not hedged hedge funds, the demise of major real estate lending banks and rollovers called takeovers of Internet financial entities. As long as you do not recognize these are united in the magma of over the counter derivatives and it all can be blamed on the peskiest bad mortgages made to under financed people, the longer the central bankers can pray for a miracle. Prayers is a great tool, but not for those who know what they were doing. The shock of Greenspan’s book, which I believe discredits him, is that he always knew the destruction that his acts would visit upon the world. Of all the disgusting things, the worst as I see it is his persisting support of no regulation for over the counter derivative and his pronouncements that these weapons of massive financial destruction act to spread the risk from the few to the many. What happened is over the counter derivative spread the risk from the few to the fewer who proliferated the world with offsetting paper and sucked the money out.
Simply stated we all have been killed in some degree, but 99.9% of the people have no idea it has happened.
Just as Heinz will argue articulately that there is no derivative risk to the junior and the major gold entities from short of gold derivatives, the question is will the major deliver the 30% (or whatever the percentage the junior holds) junior’s gold at $1650 while delivering their own 70% at $325? All my efforts in major mining trade publications from 1999 to 2003 pleading with the industry not to continue hedging with crap paper called over the counter derivatives were laughed at. The world at large has no idea what a meltdown in derivatives means.
I can keep giving you the numbers where gold will go to and where it will find support, calling them major and minor Angels such as at $751 followed by another minor Angel at $782, but all that serves to do is encourage you to trade and to give the opposition a target to shot at. You want it so I will continue.
The real matter is ARE WE IN THE MELTDOWN AND IS THIS IT? My answer is yes and yes. Did I not send everyone who signed up for our free email list a note saying that a couple of weeks ago?
What has changed? Absolutely nothing except the central bankers are doing everything in their power to hold the curtain shut so you cannot see what is really causing havoc with financial institutions.
Assuming I am correct, then why seek to sell the top of a small move when for all we know in terms of gold, this is it! You may recall I told you that when gold closed 3% above $529.40 it had moved into a runaway and trading should cease. Who listened out there? A few yes, but not many.
The only selling I would do in base or precious metals is if there was a distinct need for cash for a good and necessary purpose.
The last time gold passed a clutch point, a point where the clutch of price is depressed and a higher gear is selected, gold ran $400 in a little over a month. Could you handle that if you sold and before you could inhale gold was in the four figures? Well, that is the very risk you face. Those legal and illegal shorts think they have it knocked but it is upside their heads that is going to be knocked.
This volcano is smoking and the short is like the man who would not move from Spirit Lake when Mt. Saint Helen was rumbling and smoking. Now there is no more Spirit Lake and no more man standing beside it.
Smoke is spewing from the fissures. The molten magma of OTC derivatives is seeking an escape hatch which to blow out and you do not yet really believe it. Just like Heinz and the greats of the Gold producing industry shorting gold hedgers from 1991 to present, you are still trying to trade your insurance away and away it will certainly go.
Stop selling even the 1/3 unless you have a distinct need for the funds for a good purpose for their use.
What has been feared since 1968 has now occurred at orders of magnitude more than even this day is imaginable. Monty has said this could end in tears, and it will for the gold greedy hot shots that want every move gold will make.
Stay away from all credit. Hold gold and whatever currency you feel will decline the least against gold which means rise the most against the dollar. There really is little else you can do as the smell of sulfur is in the air.
It is quite interesting to see today’s article from the British Press on the new preference of those who have experienced a bank run, which is not for paper again in the hands of a financial institution, but rather for gold. I will wager that the gold is being taken delivery of. There will be bank runs here. That you can count on. First the little banks, the Internet financial organizations, the brokers and finally a massive addition of liquidity to protect their own, the international investment houses and major international banks. Yes it is that bad, only hidden from the sight of the many.
Northern Rockers go for gold
30 September 2007
By Richard Curran
Some beleaguered Northern Rock customers who withdrew their savings used the money to buy gold in search of old fashioned stability.
Dublin-based broker Gold and Silver Investments said that some of its British customers had switched funds from Northern Rock to gold as the price of the precious metal hit a 28-year high last week.
Mark O’Byrne said the demand for gold has been rising steadily but the falling dollar and record oil prices have driven up gold prices as investors turn to traditional investments.
‘‘The turbulence in financial markets is another factor,” O’Byrne said. Gold and Silver Investments sells gold to investors in Britain and Ireland and it is the only broker in this region to sell gold held in the famous Perth Mint in Australia, an institution with a AAA credit rating.
More…
[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 306883
10/3/2007 3:36 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FU&FW
[link to www.reasontofreedom.com]
Blackstone, China, and the end of the world as we know it: Get Ready
The Melinda's picture
Submitted by The Melinda on Sun, 2007-09-23 03:45.
* Bill of Rights
* Finance
America is now poised for an event that has happened elsewhere in the world but never, for living Americans, here on US soil. That event is a hyperinflation that will destroy our savings, milking Americans dry. Those who planned this event have been in charge of the monetary system, and in charge of every branch of government. While occupying those positions of trust they have profited mightily. Now, many of those who believed their were 'insiders' will face a reality that confronts them with the fact that they, too, have been had. Their employers have used them to immunize themselves as they prepared to move off shore, convert their stolen assets into Swiss Francs, hard money, and commodities, hunkering down to ride it out as they slurp champagne.
The mortgage market is draining away one portion of American savings while the Securities and Exchange Commission finalizes the enabling of hedge funds and limited partnerships like Blackstone Group, to suck out the pensions and secured savings that elderly Americans thought would carry them through to the end of life, leaving a nest egg for their children and grandchildren. Those in power did not forget other kinds of savings, including those intended to educate our children. It was all up for grabs. To protect yourself and those you love you need to see the world, not as they present it to us, but as it appears to them.
We are the bees. They control our hive.
The Corporate Greedy, BigOil, think they have won; they did all within their power to convert our form of government from a representative republic made up of independent states to a serial monarchy/oligarchy. They busily changed the meaning of words, for instance converting the word, “Conservative” to Big Government Federalist for a start.
You may also still believe that communism was a real threat to America instead of another boogie man intended to keep us in line. You may still believe that a tiny insane cabal of Muslims, individuals who had been marginalized in their own countries, are a threat to us. It is time to lose your illusions.
Iraq is about the oil; The only surge those in power really care about is the one being carried out by the Security and Prosperity Partnership and the other forms of control for installing what they hope will be the militarized ground they intend to turn into one large plantation that they call the North American Union. Think of it, and us, as their long term investment strategy.
The hyper inflation now beginning is intended to make us helpless, unable to resist, focused on stark survival, as they staple in place a new, overt form of government on the savaged bones of our Constitution.
Those plans, as reflected in the words, “Security and Prosperity Partnership” are about just that. For their own children they want not prosperity but the culmination of their own fantasied, a guaranteed, unending flow of money and security. The Partnership is for the Corporate Greedy only.
You and I are not to be the beneficiaries of that flow. Our purpose in their eyes is to either produce the wealth, be consumed, or conveniently die.
The Corporate Greedy have been eating us alive for generations. By doing so they worked to provide for those future generations of trust fund brats with no character, morals or clue about the work ethic; more George W. Bushes, more little Murdochs and Rockefellers. For that purpose they have driven America into bankruptcy using all of the institutions we paid for and thought were intended to provide security for us, the real Americans, and our families.
Like the movie, “The Matrix,” it is very simple when you understand.
This hyperinflation cycle is the corporate beekeepers harvesting the hive. They are now harvesting America, making room for those of us who survive, to produce more. At the same time they are looking at which bees are likely to give them the best return. They intend that the 'useless eaters,' the elderly, the lowest income people, the inconveniently political, die.
After they finish harvesting America will be a third world country. The North American Union will be in place to act as their conduit for rebuilding on very different lines, smugly expecting us to be grateful for the opportunity to simply survive and serve.
Hyperinflation is one of their tools that shows you what is about to happen. It has been used before. Stan Mikhalsky experienced the hyper inflation that took place in the Soviet Union. Here is his story.
by Stan Mikhalsky
“It started in November 1985. The Soviet Union had been shaken by a tsunami of deaths as one after another, starting in 1982, Party leaders died in office. First Brezhnev, then Andropov followed by Chernenko. Never had the Soviet Union seen so many deaths just in three years.
Then, suddenly, a new guy, younger, eager, and unexpected... Gorbachev, came into office.
The 70s in Soviet Union had been marked as years of prosperity and peace. Ordinary people had prospered. Then, in 19 , we found ourselves at war in Afghanistan and the world changed.
When I stepped on American soil in 1996 I had the same feeling of those fat, happy years of the 70s in the Soviet Union. Yet in the back of my mind I wondered. I was worried because I knew how that time of peace and prosperity had ended. Putting that aside I figuratively rolled up my sleeves and got to work; good times mean profits and there was much I wanted for my family, much they needed after the trauma we had survived in the Ukraine.
Those fat years of the 70s in the Soviet Union had been followed by a long nightmare, one I see beginning here in America.
Gorbachev had been in office just a couple months when he ratified a new bills exchange. A bills exchange means exchanging the currency then in use for different money.
Well, you could ask, that is normal in many countries, right? Normal? Maybe. But the outcome was like they had pumped us dry of savings. Going through it was torture, seeing the savings of a life time drained in days, weeks, or months.
Current denominations of fifties and hundreds could be exchanged for new bills for only three days and only 500 Rubles could be exchanged at one time. So, what is a big deal?
Many honest people in the Soviet Union had escaped scrutiny, moving into the burgeoning middle class, by keeping their profits in cash. For example, at the time there were many 'underground milliners' whose enterprises were not in sync with ruling Communist Party. These were "illegal activities" though they harmed no one.
Gorbachev had decided, alone or based on advice, to kill these people as a class. And that action -- bill's exchange -- killed a segment of the middle class in Soviet Union.
The artificial currency exchange ratio (at the beginning of the Gorbachev tenure) was 69 kopeek (lowest USSR currency) for 1 US Dollar. It wasn't real, of course. In reality there were people who dealt with foreigners, buying from them and then selling to the general population (jeans, for example). These entrepreneurs were called "farcovshiki". Farcovshiki were risking their lives to support their families. The penalty for these activities were up to 15 years in prison, the same sentence that was applied by criminal law to rapists and killers.
To live in the Soviet Union was to live with danger. To be in business we needed to have a real currency, real US Dollars and Deutsch Marks. The new exchange rate had risen to 3 Rubles per US Dollar.
In the wake of these events, people were literally hiding their money under pillows, afraid to put their funds in the bank. The biggest USSR Savings Bank loomed as a threat to all savings. Instead those funds were kept close at hand, buried in a backyard or hidden in the attic. Imagine what shock we felt when it was announced the new bills would be valid and old ones void in three days!
Just like in the United States, there are always people who worked hard to build businesses and support their families. In the Soviet Union we called those people, who were like my parents, "hard working communists." Like all law abiding citizens they kept their hard-earned money in the USSR Savings Bank. At that time they had enough money in the bank to support them in comfort in their retirement. So, in a sense, these money were US 401K plans equivalent."
1985, everything changed. They figured out how to reach into the places we had used to hide the money we hoped would give us security.
The 'free market' overwhelmed formerly Soviet Union citizens. Overnight the world had changed, some for the good and some not. Now we, ordinary people, could say what we wanted, not just in own kitchens but out loud in public. Our world grew larger. Freedom gave us the ability to see beyond the borders of the USSR. Now we saw the world as it had appeared to to Party leaders, the Military Elite, and their friends. We could see R-rated movies and read different opinions.
However, with this new freedom brought with it hyper inflation, gangsters, and crooks.
Inflation was no longer controlled as it had been before. Because Gorbachev said that the "Free Market" was subject to any forces that came by 1989 the Ruble had fallen to a value only 1/6th that of the US Dollar.
By 1991 the
[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 306883
10/3/2007 3:38 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FU&FW
By 1991 the Soviet Union had ceased to exist and Ukraine had become independent.
That led to more instability and new rounds of inflation through currency manipulation.
As an independent nation, the Ukraine decided to have its own currency. That 'currency, ' which we called, 'coupons,' was printed on low quality paper and was easily reproduced in basements using Xerox machines. Counterfeit currency became a reality, dooming the Coupons. Rubles were highly valuable in exchange because Russia had a strong infrastructure.
The Ukraine, on the other hand, had and has today, an economy based largely on agriculture.
There, Russia and Ukraine found a common ground. Ukrainians carried their bags of farm food to Moscow, where Muscovites bought with pleasure. Moscow, without a strong agricultural economy, was suffering from a reliable food supply. This was a win-win outcome for both with Moscow getting their food and Small-Russia, the name often given to the Eastern Ukraine, receiving Rubles for radishes.
However, trade and the possibility of profit stopped in August 19, 1991. The coup in Moscow severed these connections with the Ukraine.
Inflation was like an avalanche, a tsunami that destroyed businesses and savings. Before long the Ukraine announced a new currency and, on paper, everyone in Ukraine became a millionaire as the value of our Coupons plummeted to 200000 to 1 against the US Dollar. Money in your pocket was worth less every moment. We lived in a state of perpetual uncertainty and shock.
Half-legal currency exchange became a very profitable business. You could go to special a market and exchange your life savings, packaged now in packs of coupons with rubber bands, for crispy "greens." Greens were US dollars. Most prized were crispy new greens; This bias tremendously helped counterfeit US currency to conquer our shaky post-Soviet market.
Some of you may wonder why we needed US dollars in a first place? Well, because borders were much more open than before; many entrepreneurs started trade with other countries and former Soviet Union Republics, making the dollar the only currency we could use to trade. All of us were having the same problems with currency.
Then, in the end of 1995, a new Ukrainian currency arrived. That was the Grivnya. It was a better quality banknote that exchanged elsewhere in ratio 1 Grivnya = 100000 Coupons. It brought some stability for a short while. Far from perfect, the new currency was again counterfeited; these then flooded the markets. Inflation continued to escalate.
During the 1996-2001 period the Grivnya continued to lose its value until the US Dollar itself began to slip. What had been 1 US Dollar to 6 Grivnyas became 2 Grivnyas per Dollar.
Today, it is finally stable and the dollar is losing its luster. And there begins the warning I need to share with you.
There are parallels in those years I lived through in the Ukraine with what I see and sense with the current US market situation.
The law of "survival of the fittest" is still in power. You need to prepare yourself for what may come from uncontrollable US inflation and staggering political instability. Do as many of us, having survived through so many rounds of instability learned to do. Do not hold on to currency. Instead, buy and hold raw products and commodities.
In all countries that painted the map of the Europe after Soviet Union and later, Yugoslavia separation, the oligarchy raised their wealth on these natural products. Some of the oligarchs came from banking industry but in general – oil, gas, colored metals, and media. I am pretty sure that this pattern will apply to any future independent states with economics in turmoil.
Get ready. It will happen here.”
The problem that we face in America at this minute is what Stan and other citizens of the Soviet Union faced, but for us that is only a part of the story. After the inflation we will be facing a new world, now being created to control us by the same people who are harvesting the hive of American wealth as I write.
To survive and provide the softest landing possible for Americans we need to take action as follows.
At the local level you need to get out of debt. If you can't pay off your credit cards to big corporations don't feel bad; their grid has been one of the conduits for stealing placed intentionally to put Americans into their control. The reason they changed the bankruptcy laws was because they knew where they were taking us. Pay off your mortgage if possible or find the means for at least lowering your exposure by moving to a fixed interest rate loan.
Get ready to look for the investment opportunities that will soon be available to ordinary people for lower cost alternatives in energy, transportation, and other off-grid technologies. They are coming. Every home that gets off their grids strikes a blow for freedom. Look at all the grids, energy, transportation, water, food, credit, insurance, medical. Understand how they bind you; there are solutions to each of these. You can break free.
Look at where you live. Can you grow your own food? Look into starting a coop, bringing in locally grown farm food. Join with those around you; this will build a community of cooperation that will bring both security and provide the means for local control.
Growing and eating locally will reduce your exposure to reliance on food that is shipped in from off shore, perhaps bringing in with it diseases or toxic substances, and also mean more security for you and those around you in a steady, clean, supply of food.
Growing your own food has many other benefits; many generations of Americans did just that. Learn more about what you can do along with others in your community. Local food, vegetables and meat, taste better and do not carry the additives that we are slowly learning have had drastic physiological impacts on our health.
Make sure you know what your children are learning. Schools now routinely turn out students who are functionally illiterate, suited only for the kinds of jobs they envision for our posterity. Dumbing down was part of their agenda.
The planning for that began in California with the Reagan Administration with his election as governor there. Examine what you think you know. We were all conned, often and early.
The best indicator for future success in life is how early you have your first job, not how many degrees you accumulate; education has become about symbols over substance. Tesla had no degrees and never attended college. This generation of children will be finding out what it means to work the hard way. Nothing about the policies that have extended childhood far into the twenties have been about protecting children; those policies are about control.
At the same time you need to come together with others in your community to take back control. Use persuasion; true community is about including and caring for everyone voluntarily.
Look at your local police. You pay their salaries. If they are focused on a militarized agenda, converting you and other citizens into criminalized targets, ignoring your Constitutional rights under the coloration of 'gang control' you need to take action. The Constitution is for all of us.
The individuals hired as police need to understand that the militarized agenda for control will not be tolerated. Deliver the message.
We need to take back control of our courts. Understand the bait and switch that took place and study the common law that is America's real heritage for enacting justice and lowering the transaction costs of conflict and crime. A crime has not taken place if there is no victim.
The Sheriff in your County is the highest Constitutional law enforcement authority. If you can't trust him, remove him and elect someone who will be willing and able to tell the Feds to stay out. Expect them to move rapidly on their agenda to assert control over regional areas and state governments. Be ready to react accordingly.
One of the victims of the Blackstone ploy, recounted in my last article, was stripping China of the hefty investment they had made in that company. China was conned. They lost billions of dollars and they are justly angry.
China today outspends us on military infrastructure. That was not a smart move on the part of the Corporate Elite. China is not one of them and we may all pay for the con game played out there.
Lastly, start thinking about the many ways that same Corporate Elite has conned us, manipulated us continue their predatory behavior. Through the stock market, through the mortgage industry grab, through the continued rackets they run in every place they touch our lives.
Count up what they have cost you, when, where and who. Make a record. Gather together all of those accounts that show how they have stolen from you, done all within their power to suck you dry.
There will be an accounting and you need to be ready.
You can get in touch with Stan at: elissee@gmail.com
[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 306883
10/3/2007 3:39 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FU&FW
[link to www.reasontofreedom.com]
What about a more relavent US example.
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 2007-09-26 09:34.
I'd be the first to agree that hyperinflation is bad. Russia is but a recent example, but others are Zambia (currently), Germany in the 30's, and Argentina (late 90's?). The best recent US example might be the late 70's into the early 80's. Inflation was spiking, interest rates were 18%. (I know because I actually bought a house then, thinking the rate would get worse). Everyone was buying an asset (gold, art, houses, coins, etc). All due to the government printing too much money. We were financing a war in Indochina and financing the "great society". Guns AND butter. And that's happening again.
Some of the moves in the article to protect yourself are good. My suggestion: move some money offshore. Relatively easy now that Global/International EFT's exist. You gain for every penny for the dollar's decline. Want an even bigger play? Buy long puts on the dollar betting on a continued decline. This is quite possible if the FED drops interest rates again. The risk: the US hyperinflation doesn't "infect" the rest of the world. See the recent credit problems as a cautionary event.
»
[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 306883
10/3/2007 3:40 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
FU&FW
[link to www.chicagotribune.com]
Here's a new one: Being too broke to sell
Mary Umberger | Real estate
September 30, 2007
Most anybody in the mortgage business will tell you that August was a month that will live in infamy: The market was in turmoil, as doubts about the stability of subprime loans spread to other sectors of the mortgage world.
How bad was it? A survey of mortgage brokers suggests that one in three consumers who recently signed purchase contracts canceled in August -- up from just 4 percent three years ago, according to the research firm that conducted the survey for Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade journal.
The cancellation rate undoubtedly was fed by two scenarios playing out: Many buyers couldn't get mortgage approval because lending suddenly tightened; or, financially strained lenders yanked funding from their borrowers at the last minute.
But another factor was at work: Sellers -- not buyers -- were in trouble as their closing dates neared.
"Our office had four sales in one week that failed to close because the seller didn't have the cash," said the real estate agent, who declined to be identified because she feared office repercussions.
The sellers couldn't come up with the money?
It seems that for those homeowners on the margins -- those with some but not much equity -- the costs of a real estate transaction are turning into a kick in the pants.
The problem seems to start, she said, with those formerly easy-to-snatch mortgages that cover 95 or 100 percent -- or more -- of the purchase price.
The idea -- seems quaint now, doesn't it? -- was that home values would continue to spiral blissfully skyward, equity would build and that loan-to-value ratio would improve so the buyer would be richly rewarded when he sold.
Closing day approaches, and our leveraged homeowner apparently has forgotten how many folks have their hands out at the table -- and without appreciable appreciation he can't satisfy them all.
As an example, my real estate agent acquaintance grabs a settlement sheet from a recent transaction on a home that cost just under $600,000.
Reeling off a few of the line items, she notes that the seller had to cover $1,800 in title insurance, a $75 water-certification fee, nearly $900 in tax stamps to Chicago and Illinois; a $550 attorney's fee; a $40 "overnight processing" fee. Those and numerous other charges drove the closing costs to about $3,400.
And that didn't include the pro-rated property taxes for which the seller was liable and which weren't covered by the escrow account. In this case, the seller had to set aside $6,000 from the sale of the house to cover the taxes.
Then, ahem, there's the commission.
"If you're listing a house for $410,000 and the mortgage is $390,000, you've got a problem," she said, in a bit of an understatement.
Based on the 5 percent rate she says prevails among city real estate agents, a seller in her $410,000 example would pay a $20,500 commission.
"People get a call from their attorney the week before closing, and they're expecting to hear, 'This is what you're going to get at the closing;' instead, it's 'Here's how much you have to bring,'" she said.
So, in the recent cases that have put her brokerage's teeth on edge, the buyers have just said "forget it" to the deal, which might amount to simple disappointment, except that he lawyer, title company, et al, still expect to be paid.
John O'Brien, chairman of the Illinois Real Estate Lawyers Association in Arlington Heights, said he hasn't seen cases like these lately but isn't terribly surprised by the picture the agent is painting.
"They're probably people who have borrowed the equity out of their houses," he said. "Some people don't understand that a home-equity loan is a lien against the house and it has to be paid back at closing."
Or, he said, they may have been among the legions of borrowers with hefty loans who have come to find, gulp, that those promises of home prices appreciating in perpetuity have turned out not to be true.
If you, the seller, see yourself in either of those categories, don't be surprised if your agent insists on having an intimate chat about your closing's bottom line.
My friend said her fellow agents had been admonished by management that they should delicately wrestle their sellers' finances to the ground before matters progress too far.
"There used to be a rule of thumb that you needed to be able to set aside 10 percent of your sales price," she said. "Five percent covered the commission, and another 5 percent covered the miscellaneous fees, the cardboard boxes and the movers."
Now, in our over-leveraged age, that number seems just too tight.
"All those fees, they don't seem so big when you're looking at a $50,000 check coming your way," she said, her voice trailing away. "But when you've spent all your equity on a new car ..."
[link to freewordofgod.yuku.com] |
| FHL(C)
User ID: 306883
10/3/2007 4:24 AM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 302909
10/8/2007 9:40 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
Watch the stock markets it cant be long now for the long awaited/expected correction/s. Quoting: FHL(C)
Mods, please induct this thread into the official GLP Hall of Shame.
The OP knows as much about stock markets as brain surgery. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 309582
10/9/2007 7:08 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
von Doom, the DOLLAR has LOST 98 PERCENT of it's VALUE from 1913 to 2002 and then LOST 62 PERCENT of THE REMAINING VALUE since 2002.
Do the Math! As you can see, the Dollar is damn near zero now!
THE FEDERAL RESERVE KILLED OUR COUNTRY! |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 310047
10/9/2007 10:44 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
As well the reason for nation states being in debt to central banks, the interest paid has in the main, paid of the original loans many times over, but once interest starts compounding you never get to pay of the principal, and till those yolks of slavery and bondage are thrown off, well look at whats happening to the Usa , going to get ugly for workers and unemployed, but banksters and their backers will just move offshore if needs be and still practice usury.
texas nli
Another thing, the credit card companies and banks have to stop raping the customers. It truly is their greed that has broken their backs.
A standard rate for credit, a grace period for payments, and no more crooked schemes to put charges on the cards that deliberately push accounts over the limit.
No more schemes to hold payments from posting until after they are late to get more interest and more fees.
It isn't about paying the principle anymore. the credit card companies don't give a damn about you paying off the balance. They want you enslaved to the interest and fees, not paying off the product balance to the retailers.
The retailers need to do in house credit again, to make sure they get paid, because the credit card companies will make sure they don't.
Mortgages, no one should have to pay for their home three time over. It's flagrant robbery.
A one time fee equal to ? 10 % of the sale price. that's it. It's enough to pay for handling the note. That's all that should ever be required.
Our dollars need to be pumped back into the economy as a whole, not into the hands of the crooked credit and banking industries. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 310443
10/10/2007 9:37 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
Social Security hits first wave of boomers
Drain on the system picks up in Jan., when millions born in '46 start taking benefits
By Richard Wolf
USA TODAY
EARLEVILLE, Md. — When Kathleen Casey-Kirschling signs up for Social Security benefits Monday, it will represent one small step for her, one giant leap for her baby boom generation — and a symbolic jump toward the retirement system's looming bankruptcy.
Casey-Kirschling — generally recognized as the nation's first boomer (born in Philadelphia on Jan. 1, 1946, at 12:00:01 a.m.) — won't bankrupt the Social Security system by taking early retirement at 62. But after her, the deluge: 80 million Americans born from 1946 to 1964 who could qualify for Social Security and Medicare during the next 22 years.
The first wave of 3.2 million baby boomers turns 62 next year — 365 an hour. About 49% of the men and 53% of the women are projected to choose early retirement and begin drawing monthly Social Security checks representing 75% of the benefit they'd be entitled to receive if they waited four more years to retire.
In 2011, they'll turn 65 and be eligible for Medicare. In 2012, those who didn't take early retirement benefits will turn 66 and qualify for their full share.
"Once it starts to happen, and it's going to start in January, you're going to see millions of baby boomers starting to take it," says Casey-Kirschling, a retired seventh-grade teacher and nutrition consultant.
By 2030, Social Security's caseload will be 84 million people, up from 50 million today. Medicare will go from 44 million beneficiaries to 79 million. That will leave barely more than two workers paying payroll taxes for every retiree.
The boomer retirements have demographers, actuaries and economists worried as they prepare for an estimated $50 trillion in future obligations over the next 75 years. Social Security will rise from 4% to 6% of the nation's economy. Medicare will go from 3% to 11%.
"This," says Brian Riedl of the conservative Heritage Foundation, "is the single greatest economic challenge of our era."
Medicare's hospital insurance fund now pays out more than it takes in. Barring action by Congress, Social Security will start doing so in 2017. In 2019, the hospital insurance fund is projected to run out of funds. In 2041, the Social Security Trust Fund will run dry.
All the while, Medicare's payments for doctors and prescription drugs are projected to rise faster than the nation's overall economic growth. Beneficiaries' premiums, deductibles and co-payments will rise faster than their incomes, the government says.
It's a coming financial implosion that Washington hasn't mustered the will to confront. Fixing Social Security solely with higher taxes or cuts in spending would mean a 16% increase in the payroll tax or a 13% cut in benefits. Medicare's needs would be far greater: a 122% payroll tax hike or a 51% reduction in spending, just for hospital care.
Each year action isn't taken, the prognosis gets worse and the cure more expensive. It's "the power of compounding," says David Walker, the nation's comptroller general. "Right now, it's working against us."
On this one issue, liberals and conservatives agree: It's an unsustainable path, it must be altered, and Democrats and Republicans must do it together.
"Partisanship on this issue is as foolish as a food fight on the Titanic," says Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn. Adds Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Va.: "It's not red or blue."
So far Washington has done little.
President Bush and Congress cut taxes in 2001 and 2003, which has left federal revenue at a level that Walker says will not support promises to future retirees. Congress added $768 billion over 10 years to Medicare in 2003 by creating a prescription-drug benefit. Two years later, lawmakers nicked Medicaid's projected cost by $5 billion over five years, but the Congressional Budget Office still projects the program to grow by about 8% a year.
Bush tried to overhaul Social Security and create private investment accounts in 2005 but was blocked by Democrats, who said it would drain money from the Social Security Trust Fund. Last week, his administration renewed an effort to charge upper-income seniors more for Medicare's prescription-drug coverage — a plan Congress ignored earlier this year.
Now a few lawmakers and budget analysts are sounding the alarm. Three commissions have been proposed to study the issue, recommend changes and, in two cases, force Congress to vote.
Walker is headlining a group of analysts from the political left and right on a nationwide "Fiscal Wake-Up Tour," speaking to dozens of Rotary clubs and newspaper editorial boards. Pollsters are holding focus groups in which citizens, once informed of the nation's fiscal future, usually say they'll accept tax increases or cuts in benefits.
Casey-Kirschling recently moved with her husband, Patrick Kirschling, a university professor who turns 62 in March, into what had been their summer home on Maryland's Bohemia River. After years of working, they want the good life: time with family and friends, volunteer work, a villa in Florida and a 42-foot trawler to get them there. Its name: "First Boomer."
In deciding when to take Social Security benefits, the couple did the math and agreed Casey-Kirschling would take the money next year. They estimate she will get $240 less per month than she would have if she waited four years, but the money she'll receive — she wouldn't say precisely how much that will be — initially will stop her from having to tap other investments, she says.
"I could be dead next year," she says, "so why not take it this year?"
The imbalance between workers and beneficiaries didn't happen overnight. In 1945, a decade after Social Security was created, there were 42 workers paying into the system for each retiree. Today, there are three. By 2030, Riedl says, "Every couple will have their own retiree to support."
Lawmakers have long known this. But in recent years, the short-term deficit picture has improved, masking the long-term problem.
The annual budget deficit dropped from $413 billion in 2004 to about $161 billion this year, but much is not included in that calculation: money owed to the Social Security Trust Fund, future federal and military retirement costs, obligations to veterans and more.
Nothing drives the problem home better than the baby boom generation. The impact of baby boomers on the Social Security and Medicare systems started in about 1990, when they began entering their 40s and were more prone to getting hurt or sick. The number of Americans claiming disability benefits doubled from 4.2 million in 1990 to 8.4 million in 2006.
"This has been going on for some years already," says Rick Foster, Medicare's chief actuary.
Now the boomers are readying for retirement. The Class of 1946 features some big names: President Bush, Laura Bush, former president Bill Clinton. (Hillary Rodham Clinton follows a year later.) Also turning 62 next year are five U.S. senators and 22 House members.
In each retiree's case, the decision on whether to take Social Security benefits now or later hinges on two issues: life expectancy and investment acumen. Those who take Social Security at 62 will get only 75% of their full benefit each month for the rest of their lives. Those who put off receiving the benefits get a higher percentage of their full benefit, up to 100% for those who wait until age 66 to retire. Those who wait up to age 70 can get 132% of their full benefit.
If you expect to live to a ripe old age, financial planners say, it may be worth waiting for the larger benefit at age 66 or later. But if you're investment-savvy or can put the money to good use now, it may be worth taking early retirement.
"Most people are claiming (benefits) in their early 60s," says Andrew Eschtruth of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Average age: 63.
The actuaries at Social Security have accounted for such decisions. Because benefits are reduced for early retirement, the choices retirees make won't affect the long-term solvency of the system, says Stephen Goss, Social Security's chief actuary.
The Medicare situation is far worse. As baby boomers age, so will the average age of beneficiaries, and with it the medical costs that accompany longevity. Recognizing that health care costs present the greatest threat to the federal budget and economy, the Congressional Budget Office has revamped its operation to find new ways to lower costs.
While bickering over $22 billion that Democrats want to add to Bush's 2008 budget of $1.9 trillion, the White House and Congress realize bigger issues lie ahead.
"In 10 years, Social Security will turn upside down," says White House budget director Jim Nussle, referring to when paid benefits will outweigh taxes coming in. "Anything we can do to wake people up to this challenge is important."
That's where the "Fiscal Wake-Up Tour" comes in. The presentation by the traveling troupe of policy watchdogs — hardly anyone's idea of entertainment — has appeared in 22 states so far, seeking to ignite public interest and political action. "The American people are starved for two things: truth and leadership," Walker says.
Robert Bixby of the Concord Coalition, which organized the tour, opened a recent event in Manchester, N.H., with a reference to that state's first-in-the-nation presidential primary. "The first thing I want to do is assure you that none of us is running for president," he said. "After you hear what we have to say, you'll understand why."
During the next hour, the local chamber of commerce was treated to a series of PowerPoint presentations with arrows that invariably pointed the wrong way. Negative savings rates. Rising health care costs. An aging population.
Pushing aside her chicken and rice in the back of the room, Manchester insurance agent Kathy Sousa, 55, started jotting down fixes she would be willing to consider. The first one was profound: stopping heroic care for the terminally ill, which costs Medicare billions. "This gets to be a very emotional conversation," she said.
It's getting emotional in Washington as well. Even the debate over immigration is connected, because an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants make up a growing share of the payroll tax-paying workforce. The influx of immigrants helps to slow down the inexorable decline in the number of workers per retiree.
Cooper and Wolf last month proposed a panel that would force Congress to vote up-or-down on a fiscal fix — akin to the process now used to close military bases.
That's because the solutions aren't pretty: raising the retirement age for full Social Security benefits past 67, the current limit for people born in 1960 or later. Charging wealthier Medicare beneficiaries more — a new reality for doctors' care — or giving them less. Raising or eliminating the $97,500 wage cap for payroll taxes. Perhaps all of that and more.
Drinking tea on their porch, Casey-Kirschling and her husband say they're willing to do their part on behalf of their two daughters, who are socking money away for retirement because they don't expect much government help.
"I can't imagine what's going to happen with our children and our grandchildren," Casey-Kirschling says. "They're not going to be able to retire."
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[link to www.usatoday.com] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 310443
10/10/2007 10:19 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
insights from elsewhere, and remember, the biggest banksters decreed long ago, that workers should only get subsistence wages.
The (barely) HIDDEN AGENDA here, folks, is that they want YOU to work and work and work until the day that you DIE.
Work until you DIE.
Be a SLAVE to the SYSTEM.
Social Security was a program designed to allow a person to work the most productive years of their lives, then retire with at least a minimal income and some dignity.
Medicare was to provide for medical insurance in those latter years.
But now They (the same folks who are now running around the country crying about how SS is bankrupting the country, ad nauseum) have STOLEN 40 YEARS WORTH OF SOCIAL SECURITY PAYMENTS FROM THE BABY BOOMERS, and with the THEFT of the money complete, want YOU to go along with the notion of CHEATING the boomers a second time, and making BOTH THEM AND ALSO YOURSELF WORK TILL YOU DIE.
And alot of that theft is hidden from plain sight.
For example, the first boomers paid into the system as far back as 1965 or so. A single dollar, earned in 1965, would buy what it now takes about 10 dollars to buy today. Check any inflation calculator.
But they were REQUIRED BY LAW TO PAY DOLLARS THAT WERE WORTH ALOT MORE BACK THEN WHEN THEY EARNED THOSE DOLLARS with the promise that they could collect some pension money that would be alot less than when those dollars were paid in so long ago.
Nonetheless, they were promised with the authority of law that they WOULD be able to collect a pension based on the number of dollars THEY PAID INTO THE SYSTEM.
Now, the politicians who stole their money want them to WORK UNTIL THEY DROP DEAD, because, after all, these same politicians STOLE THE BOOMERS MONEY.
Well, Bovine Manure!
Boomers aren't going to put up with this load of crap!
And they should not be expected to!
They PAID the bill, and now, it IS time to reap the benefits for a lifetime of payments.
Let the politicians that stole their money labor until they die!
I understand the ire...
"For example, the first boomers paid into the system as far back as 1965 or so. A single dollar, earned in 1965, would buy what it now takes about 10 dollars to buy today. Check any inflation calculator."
Care to imagine how much interest the feds paid on that Barry?
Zilch. They didn't save a penny of it. This is strictly a 'PAYGO' program...and now there aren't enough new workers to support the Ponzi scheme.
"Boomers aren't going to put up with this load of crap!"
Indeed they are not..it will be the political battle of the century...and looky' thar...the PAC groups just pushed through freeeee perscription drugs to boot...just in time to throw jet fuel on the fire. Now, why would somebody go and do that?
And here comes the Amero just in time! Imagine that.
Mexico's FOX Confirms AMERO
Enough handwriting on the wall for you?
Lessee now. How many dollars have gone into Iraq? Billions upon billions upon billions you say. Would be nice if that money was put into those that actually earned it.
"...President Bush and Congress cut taxes in 2001 and 2003, which has left federal revenue at a level that Walker says will not support promises to future retirees.."
Fed and State revenues the highest in history and this guy is claiming they could even be higher?
Interesting.
"They had a choice between dishonor and war. They chose dishonor. They shall have war." Churchill on Munich
"...President Bush and Congress cut taxes in 2001 and 2003, which has left federal revenue at a level that Walker says will not support promises to future retirees.."
Fed and State revenues the highest in history and this guy is claiming they could even be higher?
Interesting.
The public debt is also "the highest in history".
Nothing about the American Medical Association works. It's collapsing as millions of people look elsewhere for cures and treatments (alternative medicine). The AMA is owned by Big Pharma, pushing mind-altering drugs instead of curing anything. They are creating more diseases with their vaccines and drugs and curing nothing. They make billions from diabetes (created by Zyprexa and high fructose corn syrup). They make billions from autism, created by vaccines full of mercury/thimerisol.
Big Pharma buys politicians and the politicians pass laws making us subject to the vaccines and the AMA, their brainless buttboys.
As for SS, I've paid over $40,000 into it. Just give me my money back, please! I'll go buy gold and never cost the taxpayers of this country a dime.
But the people of this country are systematically robbed by SS/Medicare, the government-controlled 401K plans, devaluation of the currency and high interest rates and taxes, taxes, taxes. No one is ever supposed to get ahead of the game.
They (the same folks who are now running around the country crying about how SS is bankrupting the country, ad nauseum) have STOLEN 40 YEARS WORTH OF SOCIAL SECURITY PAYMENTS FROM THE BABY BOOMERS, and with the THEFT of the money complete, want YOU to go along with the notion of CHEATING the boomers a second time
So instead, we should steal the money from the present generation of workers to pay for the Boomers' benefits? Hey, we baby boomers will get ours, who gives a crap if their money and labor get stolen? Tough noogies, losers!
Very moral.
Of course, Social Security was never intended to be anything more than a supplement for the savings the Boomers should have been piling up all along—but didn't. But let's not split hairs, eh?
Congress can never be trusted with the SS fund, which they consistently rob - and they pass laws making it legal.
Let the American people take care of their own money and plan for retirement.
As for SS, I've paid over $40,000 into it. Just give me my money back, please! I'll go buy gold and never cost the taxpayers of this country a dime.
Won't happen.
Let the American people take care of their own money and plan for retirement.
Won't happen.
You're on your own. Suck it up, save what they leave you, and don't vote for Democrats.
Anyone wanna bet they will raise the retirement age-again? I bet they will try to. Work until your 90 years old so our Gov doesn't have to shell out Social Security.
__________________
"There Is No Such Thing As Coincidence Because There Is A Reason For Everything". "You Have To Experience To Understand" "It's Not About Making It To Heaven, It's ALL About Wanting To Be With Jesus More Than Everything In This World.
It's not just the lawyers. It's the mentality of just about everyone employed or funded by the govt. So much is wasted by them - from govt funded lunches & stolen pens to vehicles & gas or airplane tickets to govt funded conferences.
And nobody cares because it's not their own money they're spending. Consider how much we'd have in the gov't pot if there were no free lunches, no free vehicles & fuel, all conventioins/conferences were to be teleconferences, etc.
Over 25 years ago I worked for a newspaper owned by Knight Ridder, We got a memo passed down about how much money "waste" loses the company. I don't remember the exact figures, but it was something like "if we didn't throw away 80% of the paperclips that the corporate office purchase purchased (for company wide use), they'd save over $1,000,000 a year. Back then that was a lot.
Picture the savings, govt-wide, state and federal, on our taxes.
Oh goody. This ought to be just what Hell-are-eee needs to stampede the sheople. DRUGS, give US more free DRUGS! More death care! NOW! Never forget, dumbocracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what they will have for dinner. This stupid ponzi scheme, illegal under the Law Of Nations, was never intended to be anything but a social engineering and human inventory system for thinly veiled Marxism in America, all feel-good humanism, (because you really can't accurately call it anything related to humanitarianism), aside. This then is the thousand pound flea on the 40 pound dog that ate America, and you want to what, improve it with socialized medicine?
Oh, ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. The joke is on US, and is not a good one. So suck it up, admit you're been had royal, make other plans, and try electing someone who isn't a stinking communist in future. Listen to these publicans and demoncraps pandering to the vote. Work together on what, more of the same madness, deception, and fuzzy math that got US into this mess?!
Ah'll tell you whut. The chickens is coming home to roost for all the lonesome liberal boomers who murdered their offspring in the womb, in these hard times to come. Hell to pay. Get over it. Repent, and find your Provider again, America.
Correct me on this. The next generation that pays into Social Security actually pays YOUR Social Security.
Ok I will. No way, that is total smoke and mirrors insofar as Algore's "lockbox" concept, (which he didn't invent any more than the internet), or any "trust fund", (which is how they wrapped it in lies for decades for sale and consumption).
It's another UNconstitutional tax on the labor, life and property of the common man, is all, despite any alleged promise to pay, and in that sense, yes, if they don't import enough foreign dummies to pay more taxes, (since Americans murdered their kids wholesale in the last generation), or sell Americans more communist ideals so they will pay say, 60% total taxes instead of 40-something gladly to fund the demise of their own liberties, the holder in due course of the note on this whole place gets nervous, see, and tells them to get the serfs to gather their own straw and make more bricks, or else the plug gets pulled on the electronic Government Growth Industry machine which says "made in the USA" on it, and the one made in China gets rolled out for a test run.
But the big lie is the whole schamola is upside down, bankrupt and insolvent, on the Congressional Record, because you can't repay a debt with a debt. -2 + -2 is minus 4, and when you have all the money, all that remains is absolute power.
Watch. They'll tell you it has to be fixed at any and all costs, including social balkanization of America, and then, when you have elected all the right communists, the thing will be declared defunct anyway, and you will be given the choice between totalitarian world communist government or being transmorgrified into Soylent Green.
White man speak with forked tongue.
So instead, we should steal the money from the present generation of workers to pay for the Boomers' benefits? Hey, we baby boomers will get ours, who gives a crap if their money and labor get stolen? Tough noogies, losers!
Very moral.
Of course, Social Security was never intended to be anything more than a supplement for the savings the Boomers should have been piling up all along—but didn't. But let's not split hairs, eh?
So, WHAT IS YOUR SUGGESTION,
To neglect the Baby Boomers, and work them until their deaths, so that YOU don't have to help pay a single dime towards the support of the generation that supported YOUR generation AND at the very same time supported the generation that preceeded it?
Anything so that YOU can live in comfort, eh... ? Who cares about Them, anyway?
And I'd beware if I were you, cuz it's NOT just the Baby Boomers that TPTB want to enslave until death.
They want YOU TOO, and if you support enslavement of the Baby Boomers today, you are setting YOUR OWN SELF up for enslavement in your old age as well. You think you can save alot of money for your own retirement? Don't kid yourself.... They know how to steal your nest egg too....
This whole mess goes back to "Tricky Dicky" who stole millions of dollars from SS and put it in the general fund many years ago. The SS system was solvent and would have remained solvent indefinitely if that would not have happened. I've said all along that the feds should be forced to return the money that was taken from SS and put it back in good standings.
The millions of dollars was used for politicians to take vacations, etc. It was common theft of private funds that were earmarked for retirees. But they got away with it because nobody worried about the future. They got their instant gratification and that's all they cared about. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 310875
10/11/2007 11:29 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
The Federal Reserve meets in two weeks and the deliberate destruction of the dollar must be insured so the markets do not crash, the monetary conversion process can continue unabated, and the banksters can continue to extract wealth from the middle and lower class via the inflation tax. So how does one induce the Federal Reserve to act without raising suspicion, bribery, or some other devious action? If there are no “black swans” migrating into the picture the solution is simple:
Paint a white swan, black. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 310875
10/11/2007 11:31 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
Credit card debt is ready to blow
Jay Hancock
October 10, 2007
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After every financial crisis over the past 10 years, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates and pumped money into the economy. Each rescue solved the problem - and created a new one.
The next bomb from this chain reaction of bailouts and blowups will be credit-card debt. Hardly anybody is talking about it yet, but banks and consumers are laying the ground for a wave of credit-card defaults, bankruptcies and asset write-offs for 2009 or so.
Regulators and investors have discouraged excessive mortgage lending, so banks are turning to credit cards as the next growth business. They're starting to raise credit limits, lower lending standards and increase recruitment. And now that they can't borrow against homes so easily, consumers are borrowing more against plastic - even to meet higher, adjustable mortgage obligations that they can't handle from their income.
This can end only one way. The only question is how bad it will be.
The percentage of banks tightening credit-card lending standards is hovering near its lowest levels in a decade, according to a Federal Reserve survey.
Junk-mail credit-card solicitations jumped late last year, although they're still below the levels of 2005, according to the Tower Group, a financial services research firm. But more importantly, the percentage of people responding to credit-card come-ons has risen steadily and nearly tripled since mid-2005.
"It doesn't mean that banks are giving the store away, but they've eased their lending standards to be able to grab [market] share" in credit cards, says Dennis C. Moroney, a senior analyst at Tower.
Increasing market share is often banker-ese for "making lots of loans that won't get paid back."
Here's Countrywide Financial boss Angelo Mozilo talking to Wall Street analysts three years ago: "We have a strong focus on growing market share and have set a very ambitious goal of attaining 30 percent market share by 2008." These days, thanks to the dud mortgages Countrywide issued, it has a strong focus on trying to avoid bankruptcy.
When mortgages and home-equity loans were all the rage, consumers had no need to crank up credit-card balances and bank salesmen had no need to push plastic.
But cards are now the bank growth product and consumer lender of last resort. Some households are almost certainly meeting mortgage obligations by borrowing against their credit cards, although it's impossible to tell how many, says banking analyst Bert Ely of Ely & Co. Millions of mortgages issued at low, teaser rates will reset over the next two years, adding to pressure on household finances.
"I wonder how many people are out there right now getting new credit cards and just preparing for that day," says Ely.
As growth in home equity balances has fallen almost to zero, credit-card balances have increased at a 17 percent annual rate over the past six months, according to a report by Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg. And the trend, he writes, "is clearly accelerating." A year ago card balances were shrinking.
Card defaults are up, too. They are nowhere near the levels reached after the tech-stock meltdown and the 2001 terrorist attacks, but they will grow. The average American has seven credit cards in his wallet. Americans owe more than $500 billion on cards already. Household debt levels and debt payments are near all-time highs. And the economy is in danger of entering recession.
If banks are swallowing hard before issuing asset-backed mortgage loans these days, should they really be increasing unsecured card debt to the same people? Especially since credit-card interest can be three times as high as mortgage rates and isn't tax-deductible?
No - but the Fed is creating money, regulators eyes' are off the ball and the dough will flow along the line of least resistance.
I'm not saying credit-card pain will be as bad as previous financial blowups. I'm not even saying the Fed shouldn't lay on some lubrication.
I am saying to expect a new chapter in the chain reaction of bubbles that began 10 years ago. The Fed cut rates to fix the emerging-markets stock collapse in 1997 and 1998, and we got the Nasdaq craze. It cut rates to fix the Nasdaq crash and we got the housing bubble. Now it's cutting rates to fix the housing slump.
Easy card deals will soon be everywhere you want to be. It may be good news for retailers temporarily. But look out below.
jay.hancock@baltsun.com |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 310875
10/11/2007 11:51 AM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 310875
10/11/2007 11:54 AM | | Anonymous Coward
User ID: 312161
10/14/2007 9:38 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
Rich Getting Richer, Says IRS Report
Friday, Oct. 12, 2007 8:33 a.m. EDT
The richest one percent of Americans earned a postwar record of 21.2 percent of all income in 2005, up from 19 percent a year earlier, reflecting a widening income disparity among different classes in the nation, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing new Internal Revenue Service data.
The data showed that the fortunes of the bottom 50 percent of Americans are worsening, with that group earning 12.8 percent of all income in 2005, down from 13.4 percent the year before, the paper said.
It said that while the IRS data goes back only to 1986, academic research suggests that the last time wealthy Americans had such a high percentage of the national income pie was in the 1920s.
[link to moneynews.newsmax.com]
The article cited an interview with President Bush, who attributed income inequality to "skills gaps" among various classes. It said the IRS didn't identify the source of rising income for the affluent, but said a boom on Wall Street has likely played a part. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 312161
10/14/2007 9:40 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
Hyperinflation Will Blow The Economic Doors Off
By Roger Wiegand
Oct 11 2007 3:35PM
www.tradertracks.com
“Our professional money managers and economic experts are trapped. The lesser of two evils, rabid inflation is preferable to a Destroying Deflationary Depression. Currency printing whether through the printing press or, by simple key strokes on central bank computers, delivers the same result…Legendary Hyperinflation. Mr. Volker, where are you when we need you so badly?”- Traderrog
Wikopedia’s Free Enclyclopedia Tells Us:
“In economics, hyperinflation is inflation that is "out of control," a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value. No precise definition of hyperinflation is universally accepted. One simple definition requires a monthly inflation rate of 20% or 30% or, more. In informal usage, the term is often applied to much lower rates.
“The definition used by most economists is ‘an inflationary cycle without any tendency toward equilibrium.’ A vicious circle is created in which more and more inflation is created with each iteration of the cycle. Although there is a great deal of debate about the root causes of hyperinflation, it becomes visible when there is an unchecked increase in the money supply or drastic debasement of coinage, and is often associated with wars (or their aftermath), economic depressions, and political or social upheavals”-Wikopedia
A 500,000,000,000 (500 Billion) Yugoslav Dinar Banknote Circa 1993.
“This currency example of Hyperinflation from Wikopedia, is the most extreme example we could find in our research. Yugoslavia suffered greatly with currency debasement and its nasty companion, civil war. Note that this event was only 14 years ago. Will the western and G-7 nations find the identical fate? Let’s hope not but they are all printing furiously.”- Traderrog
Most Famous Hyperinflation Occurred In Germany in 1923-1924
Inflation 1923-24: A German woman feeding a stove with currency notes, which burn longer than the amount of firewood they can buy.
“The main cause of hyperinflation is a massive imbalance between the supply and demand of a certain currency or type of money, usually due to a complete loss of confidence in the currency similar to a bank run.
Hyperinflation is generally associated with paper money because the means to increasing the money supply with paper money is the simplest: add more zeroes to the plates and print, or even stamp old notes with new numbers. There have been numerous episodes of hyperinflation, followed by a return to "hard money". Older economies would revert to hard currency and barter when the circulating medium became excessively devalued, generally following a "run" on the store of value.
Unlike inflation, which is sometimes seen as a necessary evil in a healthy economy, hyperinflation is always regarded as destructive. It effectively wipes out the purchasing power of private and public savings, distorts the economy in favor of extreme consumption and hoarding of real assets, causes the monetary base whether specie or hard currency to flee the country, and makes the afflicted area anathema to investment. Hyperinflation is met with drastic remedies, whether by imposing a shock therapy of slashing government expenditures or by altering the currency basis” -Wikopedia
“Loss of confidence means a bank-run. Useless, valueless, fiat paper cash causes a return to HARD MONEY AND BARTER. HARD MONEY IS GOLD AND SILVER. BARTER IS PURE OLD FASHIONED TRADING-MY GOODS FOR YOUR GOODS.” Traderrog
Gold and Silver Have Barely Scratched The Surface of True Values
“If gold and silver were fairly adjusted for inflation, gold would be over $2,000 per ounce, not just $740. Silver, instead of being valued at $13.33 per ounce would be nearly $25. Some traders and investors view gold’s forthcoming top at $873 and silver’s at $50 based upon non-adjusted inflation valuations in 1979-1981. Watch what comes next in the on-going gold and silver bull market of the century. We are only in the 3rd or 4th inning. The outcome will be truly astounding!” - Traderrog
We wanted our readers to clearly understand what is happening to international currencies and their devaluation by over-printing. Russia prints at the rate of +50% annually. The United States is shoveling it out between 11% and 14%. Asian central banks produce new cash at rates between 12% and 20%. Where do we suppose this all ends? The ending is cast in bronze and it will not be a happy event. Review history and watch what our leaders do not what they say.
Your only conclusion is to eliminate debt, buy and trade gold and silver investments and most of all become an independent thinker and leader. Take care of yourself, your family and your friends. Most of them will not believe these ideas so move quietly to take charge and guarantee your future and theirs. Not only can you protect what you have, but you’ll move swiftly to increase your holdings and might even become wealthy in the process. Good luck and good trading! - Traderrog
Roger Wiegand
[link to www.kitco.com] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 312161
10/14/2007 9:46 AM | | Re: Watch, Its happening ,the global economic change. | Quote |
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
The proposal being floated calls for the creation of a “Super-SIV,” or a SIV-like fund fully backed by several of the world’s biggest banks to provide emergency financing. The Super-SIV would issue short-term notes to finance the purchase of assets held by the SIVs affiliated with the banks, with the hope of reassuring investors.
But whether the banks would buy the assets directly or just buy the short-term debt is still unclear, according to people briefed on the situation. So are other aspects, like the amount of capital each bank would need to contribute, how it would be administrated, and the fee structures and cost burdens.
The effort to create a backup fund began about three weeks ago, when the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson, called a meeting in Washington that included the chief executives of Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan and other big banks. With Wall Street firms having almost no luck finding buyers for mortgage-backed securities and derivatives, Mr. Paulson wanted to see what could be done to relieve the bottleneck.
Several rounds of discussions followed — in Washington, New York and on conference calls — led by two senior Treasury Department officials: Robert Steel, the under secretary for domestic finance and a former Goldman Sachs executive who is a close adviser Mr. Paulson; and Anthony Ryan, a former investment banker who is now assistant Treasury secretary for financial markets.
Besides hearing from senior executives from each of the big banks, the group also sought ideas from others. Several big international banks, including Barclays and HSBC, have been asked about their interest in participating. The group also reached out to several of the major structured investment funds, as well as big institutional investors in the commercial paper markets.
There is NO solution!!!
If you have any cash buy gold coins. Get out of debt.
This kind of high level meeting could cause money managers and funds to get out of the stock market.....Monday! This is the kind of news that precipates a stock collapse and back runs. Notice the problem still isn't resolved by those meeting this weekend. We're talking about 20 trillion dollars of derivative credit that won't be repaid. It's every person for themselves. They've left the Europeans and Asians holding the bag of debt and they're not happy and that is why they have called this meeting. 75 billion to solve this credit problem is like me sending Visa 10 dollars to pay off my Visa bill. Watch gold on Monday.
The crash is happening already. Read here: [ www.jsmineset.com] |
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