Second part of the economic crisis coming in 2009 ...and it is BAD!!!!

THE DERIVATIVE CASINO

Financial engineering by the shadow money-lenders accelerated further credit creation. The United States led the way. During the past ten years, while income stagnated, consumer spending rose to a record $8.34 trillion fueled by cheap consumer loans – home mortgage, credit-card loans, car loans, holiday loans etc.

The securitization of the growing stream of compound interests from the wide range of consumers’ debts was the natural and logical step in the next round of credit creation for the derivative casino. These debts were sliced and diced into tranches to form CDOs, synthetic CDOs, CLOs, MBS and CDS etc. and marketed worldwide. The demand for securitization was so great that banks and mortgage brokers were even willing to lend to borrowers on the barest of credit information. They were aptly called “Liars’ Loans”!

In 2004, $157 billion CDOs were issued but rocketed to an amazing $557 billion in 2006. And when there were insufficient mortgages to be securitized into CDOs, Wall Street created the “synthetic CDOs” – bonds which have no underlying loans and or security but allegedly have an income stream based on a parallel contract and on contingencies which may or may not result in any interest payments. Investment is risk, stupid! Higher risks, higher payouts!

In the first quarter of 2007, the creation of CDOs surged further, led by Merrill Lynch which sold nearly $29 billion in February and March, sixty per cent more than the preceding two-month period; Goldman Sachs pushed $10 billion in March which more than double the value in February and Citigroup sold $9 billion in March, one third more than the previous month. CDOs were the rave and the ticket to glorious wealth.

The US, specifically Wall Street became the “Mecca of debts”.

The rest of the world jumped on the bandwagon. So much CDOs were packaged and sold so quickly that no one even had the time to determine which and what securities were being securitized in the CDOs. “Just do the trade, just do the trade” was the chorus line for the traders.

The following table says it all – the Sub-Prime Fiasco.





The Shadow Money-lenders also came up with a scheme to protect investors and which brought another massive stream of revenue. The scheme was called “Credit Default Swaps” (CDS).

Total Face Amount of CDS was estimated as follows:

2001 $918.9 Billion
2002 $ 2.2 Trillion
2003 $ 3.8 Trillion
2004 $ 8.4 Trillion
2005 $ 17.1 Trillion
2006 $ 34.4 Trillion
2007 $ 62.2 Trillion
2008 $ 54.6 Trillion as of June 2008

The world became addicted to debt!

Then the housing bubble busted, and with it the gigantic Ponzi scheme.

Creditors are now faced with a dilemma, what to do with the loads and loads of dollar toilet paper, now derisively referred to as “toxic wastes” – stand pat, sell down, continue to be paid in dollar toilet papers or shut down the printing press?

We are now at this juncture.

THE SHADOW MONEY-LENDERS’ LAST GAMBIT

The Fed’s decision to cut the Fed Fund Rates to 0.25 percent means that the Fed has embarked on a Zero-Interest-Rate Policy (ZIRP) and to proceed with the policy of Quantitative Easing (QE) – to turn on the spigot for “limitless supply of credit”.

In layman’s jargon, to encourage more debts – mortgage debts, credit-card debts, car loans, and more importantly to revive the derivative casino, presently on life support. This was the drug addiction that sustained the global financial system in the last twenty years and more intensely in the last seven years!

The announced policy (ZIRP / QE) is the last bullet in the Fed’s arsenal or as I have stated earlier, using another analogy, the final gamble, the last chip on the betting table. There will be no more ammunition left after this.

This huge gamble will take six months to play out but it will end in failure as surely as the sun will rise in the East tomorrow.

But a more sinister aspect of the zero-interest-rate policy which has not been highlighted by any economist or financial commentator is that the United States under the present Bush regime has declared to the entire world that the United States cannot and will not service anymore interest payments on the nation’s outstanding debts amounting to trillions.

Bush has declared that the United States for all intent and purposes is bankrupt and have no means to service the interest due, what more the principal sum.

Bush, Bernanke and Paulson have therefore collectively agreed to give the “two-finger sign” to the world’s creditors and in no uncertain terms are saying that:

You creditors, you a@#holes, you can jerk off. You know, I know and the whole bloody world knows that the US of A have no income to even service the interest which amounts to a few hundred billion a year.

So let us stop the pretense. We owe trillions and interest on top of that runs to hundreds of billions, which when unpaid is capitalized. And every year we have to borrow from you guys just to pay the interest so as to avoid a call on default. There were so many occasions when we have defaulted, but you guys allowed us to roll over to maintain the façade that the US of A is still floating.

We ain’t floating like a bee, but we are sinking fast! Let’s cut the crap and be real.

So this is the offer. And you jerks better listen good because this will be said once and once only.

You guys should be more than happy with so much interests already accruing on the outstanding. All these years, you guys have been only too happy to see us print the toilet papers in payment of your goods and to service the interests. It was an incredible con and what a free ride we had all these years. You guys were part of the con as well.

If you insist that I continue to pay you in toilet papers, why do you insist that we issue more toilet papers as interest payments? It is just more toilet papers. You guys are swarmed with toilet papers!

The toilet paper is worthless. So what is the point of paying “toilet paper interest” on outstanding toilet papers?

This is it! We are not paying anymore toilet paper interest. We are going to print more toilet papers to pay for whatever we want to purchase. If you want to sell to us, you will get toilet papers but with no interest. Period!

This is the greatest irony. The Fed, the world’s biggest money-lender and its partners-in-crime are telling their creditors to stuff it! When debtors cannot pay the exorbitant interests and the principal, these financial predators demand that the debtors give their pound of flesh in lieu of cash. But when they borrow, they repay in toilet paper money abd get away with it!

And now they even have the audacity to give an ultimatum:

We are the biggest buyers in town. If you don’t want toilet papers from us, that is fine by us. You can get tissue papers from the Europeans, bamboo papers from the Japanese and whatever that is on offer. Who is going to argue whether tissue paper would do a better job than plain toilet paper? Hey, this is a free market. Pick your choice!

This is the ultimate poker game. Bush, Bernanke and Paulson is betting that no one will call their bluff, turn away and stop selling anymore goods to the US of A. Bush is counting that the fear of recession and or social unrest in the creditors’ countries will force the creditors to capitulate.

Unfortunately, this gambit will fail. The reason is simple. The US cannot supply the goods that the American consumers want, even the most basic stuff. The manufacturing industries are all anemic, while others are on life support. Without imports, the United States will have to shut down within six months.

There will be massive riots all over the US, with people killing for food and other basic necessities. Basic raw materials, commodities for manufacturing etc. will be unavailable. There will be no more cars on the freeways! Millions of Americans licensed to carry arms will stalk the streets for whatever scrap they can get their hands on.

You can bet your bottom dollar, the Shadow Money-Lenders and its military partner will impose martial law.

Preparation is already on the way.

PRESIDENT BUSH’S STARK WARNING

PRESIDENT BUSH’S STARK WARNING

On Tuesday, December 9th 2008, President Bush in fascist speak stated that, “I have abandoned free market principles to save the free market system.”

If you guys out there still don’t get it, this is what Bush is saying:

I am imposing dictatorial rule!

This is because the opposite of “free market” according to conventional wisdom is “state-control economy”. In a word, Socialism – Big Government.

The Fed and the Treasury, in connivance with Congress, have already approved and financed big time, the acquisition of the major banks in Wall Street through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), and the $700 Billion bailout plan. Several US financial commentators have already conceded that this is outright nationalization of the financial institutions.

Soon it will be the nationalization of the big corporations like GE, GM, Ford and Chrysler, all too big to be allowed to fail.

Too far fetched? Just look back to the events leading to World War I and World War II and to the dictatorships in Latin America in the 1970s.

How did Franklin Roosevelt get out of the 1930s mess if not for big government policies and engaging in the wars in Europe, against Germany and Japan in Asia? He even decreed Americans could no longer own gold in any form. They were all confiscated. President Roosevelt ruled with an iron fist, and don’t you believe otherwise.

Now that the entire world knows that the Federal Reserve Note (the dollar bill) is toilet paper and even though in law is “legal tender” (i.e. by law the toilet paper must be accepted as full payment of any debt, failing which the debt is deemed paid), the Shadow Money-Lenders cannot afford the risk of an armed open rebellion and the fiat money system to be overthrown. It is therefore necessary in these circumstances to enforce the use of the US dollar toilet paper by military rule and brutality.

To those who are not attuned to “dictatorship speak”, there is no clearer message to prepare the elites for the coming catastrophe that the announcement that free market principles will no longer apply. The emphasis is on the word “free” and not the word “market”.

We can argue till the cows come home whether my reading of events is correct. Time will be the final judge.

WORLD GOVERNMENT BY CONQUEST OR CONSENT

James P. Warburg, the son of Paul M. Warburg (first Chairman of the Board of the Federal Reserve System), had proclaimed that world government is their ultimate objective. But that objective cannot be achieved unless and until the United States is completely subdued. A world government can only come about if there is created a crisis that will engulf the entire world, starting from America. Such a crisis will not and cannot be resolved by any one country. It will have to be a global solution. And since countries can only work through a common mechanism, there is therefore a need for an international institution or mechanism.

The United Nations is the precedent from which a new world government will emerge.

Henry Kissinger, since the onset of the crisis, has been calling and cajoling world leaders to submit to such an endeavour if the world is to avoid a global calamity.

And it will be a socialist world government. Before anyone protest and declare that I have gone insane, let me state here once and for all, I am in full command of my faculties. I have done my research.

Capitalism and Socialism are two sides of the same money-lender’s coin. Both ideologies serve a common master - the global shadow money-lenders.

For doubting Thomases, please consider the following facts:

1) The Russian October Revolution, led by Lenin was financed by bankers, to be precise, the bankers in New York and Berlin. In New York, the money was organized by the banking firm of Kuhn, Loeb & Co whose directors included Mr. J. Schiff and Mr. Warburg, founder of the Federal Reserve System. In Berlin, the German banker was the brother of the New York Warburg.

2) On January 16, 1962, the Look and Life magazine published the following statement by David Ben Gurion, the first Prime Minister of Israel who was then still in office:

“The image of the world in 1987 as traced in my imagination: The Cold War will be a thing of the past. Internal pressure of the constantly growing intelligentia in Russia for more freedom and the pressure of the masses for raising their living standards may lead to a gradual democratization of the Soviet Union. On the other hand, the increasing influence of the workers and farmers and the rising political importance of men of science, may transform the United States into a welfare state with a planned economy. Western and Eastern Europe will become as federation of autonomous states having a socialist and democratic regime … countries will become united in a world alliance, at whose disposal will be an international police force. All armies will be abolished and there will be no more wars. In Jerusalem, the United Nations (a truly united nation) will build a shrine of the prophets to serve the federated union of all continents; this will be the seat of the Supreme Court of Mankind, to settle all controversies among the federated continents, as prophesied by Isaiah.”

3) On the success of the Russian October Revolution and the abdication of the Czar Nicholas II, the British Premier David Lloyd George said in Parliament, that Britain had achieved one of its major war aims.

4) The principal aim of Capitalism and Socialism is the centralized rule of an elite political group which owns and or controls all the means of production and the issuance of money and credits – in the case of the former, through various forms of monopoly and in the case of the latter, public monopoly.

WHY WAR IS INEVITABLE

To prove the point, let me use a simple analogy.

It is often reported in the headlines of newspapers that a certain gentleman or woman had been brutally beaten up for failing to pay the debts due to a money-lender. In Malaysia, money-lenders are often referred to as “Ah-Longs”. This is even the case when the debt is paltry. If the money-lender adopts the “soft method” in recovering a loan, it may encourage defaults and non-payments. Brutality ensures full compliance!

So is the case with nations. When the very survival of a nation is at stake because of economic and or currency warfare, do you really think that the nation at risk would not go to war?

The US invaded Iraq not because of the threat of Saddam’s WMD but for the crude oil and because Saddam was selling crude oil in Euros instead of the dollar toilet paper.

The shadow money-lenders are in a desperate situation and they will start a world war to avoid the collapse of the fiat money system. The war will be financed by the major central banks and their proxies – the 8 to 10 global commercial and investment banks. As in World War I and II, the elites of the City of London and Wall Street will be the primary movers of this insidious plot.

Anyone who doubts this scenario need only to ask one simple question – Do you think the financial powers centred in the West would accept and tolerate their loss of financial power?

I am using such graphic terms because the average Joe Six-Packs have yet to appreciate the full import of the latest announcements by President Bush that the US will abandon “Free market principles”, and by Bernanke of the Fed’s Zero-Interest-Rate Policy. Worst still, the majority of the political leaders of the third world are equally ignorant. This was evident in the APEC Summit in Peru. Like the average Joe Six-Packs, these leaders have no idea how the fiat money system works. When Washington and London say “print”, “open the spigots”, “lower interest rates”, and vice-versa they just follow blindly. There was just one rare exception, when Malaysia opted out during the 1997 financial crisis. Even then, this was temporary as the new Badawi regime has succumbed to the old ways.

Can this war be stopped?

There is a slim chance. If American patriots, who are lawfully armed, rebel and resist the imposition of martial law, world war may be averted.

The IMF has already warned that if the US fails to resolve the crisis, there will be massive social unrest. There will be blood flowing on the streets! Military power would be pitted against brave militias with a proud tradition of having once defeated the mighty British colonial power.

Dare we hope for a second American Revolution?


Matthias Chang is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Matthias Chang

[link to www.globalresearch.ca]

Confirmation,

[link to rense.com]

[link to www.alternet.org]

Confirmation,

[link to money.cnn.com]

[link to www.theleftcoaster.com]

Tell me how its not truth?

Is the economy all fine and dandy in your little mind?

So now is not a good time to buy a house??

Damn!!

I was wanting to buy a house or should I say my girlfriend wants me to. Guess I'll have to get rid of my girlfriend who's been pushing me to go into debt.

Gulp,.. ahhhh, oh yeah, that was refreshing,

[link to www.dailygalaxy.com]

...could you step aside you are disturbing my delusional reality. Prosperity is just around the next corner !!!!

As another American Hero once said:

"Let's Roll"

The OP's article sums it up, but I think that things hold together for another month.

There's too much "hope" placed on the Messiah's shoulders and while Wall Street tells you that you shouldn't trade on hope, they're glad to sell it to you as a reason to buy stocks.

I think this week will see a strong, irrational rally into the end of the year and first two trading days of January.

Then we see a pullback for a week, status quo the next, and then another run up to the inauguration.

I've seen predictions in the 9700 range and I think that's possible.

After the election, there should be another sell-off and a struggling market until they can cook up some shit or another to try and float this pig to suckers.

This market never be healthy until people are running from the exits with their hair on fire and "Hope" has been squarely kicked in the nuts.

There will be a tipping point, feel it in me bones. ;)


When the Time Has Come
Huey Lewis & the News

everything's gonna clear up
and the sun will shine
everybody's gonna cheer up
'cause it's redemption time

don't you worry 'bout a thing
cause you know things are gonna change
when the time has come

walls are gonna crumble
and fall into the sea
oh, all men will be humble
that's a guarantee

a little rain is gonna fall
but it will only wash away the tears of us all

don't you worry bout a thing
'cause that train is gonna run
you will be on it
from here to kingdom come
when the time has come

listen to the band
feels like a change

wind is gonna rise up
and blow us all away
people gonna wise up
cause it's judgement day

so don't you worry about a thing
cause you know that train is gonna run
you will be on it
not just for some
we'll all be on it
from here to kingdom come
when the time has come


when the time has come
when the time has come
oh when the time has come

everything's gonna clear up

When the Time Has Come

everybody cheer up
walls are gonna crumble
all men will be humble
feeling it getting stronger
won't be down much longer
we will be free
when the time has come

when the time has come
i believe the time has come
feels like a change
when the time....

In case no one posted it yet, this is the site of Alex Wierbinski, author of the article in the first post:

[link to www.borderfirereport.net]

Close the Federal Reserve

OP fails

it's all about: the middle and lower class, the general welfare, the wellbeing of the people, BLA BLA BLA

IF YOU CANT FEED YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY THEN YOU SHOULDNT OF LEFT MOM AND DADS HOUSE

and if they kicked ya out, thats because THEY COULDNT KEEP ON FEEDING YOU

bottom line: fess up and make your worth. don't just sit on your ass waiting for a handout. you have to fight for that better position. millions and millions have done it, and they read crap like the OP and wonder... WTH is wrong with people

remember: YOU HAVE TO FIGHT! FOR YOUR RIGHT! TO PARTYYYYYYYYYYYYY

Mom & Dad house is America. They are kicking you out.
Don't sit on your ass (401K) it ain't coming back. Hope you are not retired, cause you got to fight for your right to party while Joe the CEO gets your money for his island in Dubai.

Holiday Sales Drop to Force Bankruptcies, Closings (Update4)
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By Heather Burke

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers face a wave of store closings, bankruptcies and takeovers starting next month as holiday sales are shaping up to be the worst in 40 years.

Retailers may close 73,000 stores in the first half of 2009, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Talbots Inc. and Sears Holdings Corp. are among chains shuttering underperforming locations.

More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc., Sharper Image Corp. and Steve & Barry’s LLC, have sought bankruptcy protection this year as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. Investors will start seeing a wide variety of chains seeking bankruptcy protection in February when they file financial reports, said Burt Flickinger.

“You’ll see department stores, specialty stores, discount stores, grocery stores, drugstores, major chains either multi- regionally or nationally go out,” Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group, a retail-industry consulting firm in New York, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “There are a number that are real causes for concern.”

Sales at stores open at least a year probably dropped as much as 2 percent in November and December, the ICSC said last week, more than the previously projected 1 percent decline. That would be the largest drop since at least 1969, when the New York-based trade group started tracking data. Gap Inc. and Macy’s Inc. are among retailers that will report December results on Jan. 8.

Women’s Clothing, Electronics

Consumers spent at least 20 percent less on women’s clothing, electronics and jewelry during November and December, according to data from SpendingPulse.

Retail Metrics Inc.’s December comparable-store sales index will drop an estimated 1.2 percent, or 5 percent excluding Wal- Mart Stores Inc. Retailers’ fourth-quarter earnings may fall 19 percent on average, the seventh consecutive quarterly decline, according to Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, a Swampscott, Massachusetts-based consulting firm.

Probably 50,000 stores could close without any effect on consumer choice, Gregory Segall, a managing partner at buyout firm Versa Capital Management Inc., said this month during a panel discussion held at Bloomberg LP’s New York offices. Only retailers with healthy balance sheets will survive the recession, according to Matthew Katz, a managing director at consulting firm AlixPartners LLP.

Store Closings

The ICSC predicts, using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, that 148,000 stores will shut down in 2008. That would be the largest number since 151,000 closings in 2001, during the last recession, according to ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira. The total number of retail establishments will decline by about 3 percent this year, also taking into account locations that were opened, he said. The U.S. had 1.11 million retail locations in 2002.

Another 73,000 locations may shut their doors in the first part of 2009, Niemira said.

The U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter at a 0.5 percent annual pace, the worst since 2001, according to the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of December forecast the world’s largest economy will contract through the first half of 2009.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Retailing Index has shed 34 percent this year, with only two of its 27 companies rising.

The index doesn’t include Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, which fell 24 cents to $55.11 at 4:02 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Wal-Mart shares have gained 18 percent this year.

Discount Advantage

“If you’re going to be in retail right now, the discount space is where you want to be,” Patrick McKeever, a senior equity analyst at MKM Partners LLC, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Discounts of 70 percent or more by Macy’s, AnnTaylor Stores Inc. and other retailers failed to prevent a spending drop of as much as 4 percent during the final two months of the year, according to data from SpendingPulse. Retailers’ pricing models are being challenged by consumers, according to Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC of Newport Beach, California.

“The whole pricing system is becoming an old-fashioned bazaar,” Hastings said today in a telephone interview. “They’re going into the stores and they’re looking at the stuff and they’re saying ‘You know what? I know that that price is way too high,’ and they have figured out that the signage doesn’t mean that much.”

Retail bankruptcies may help the industry in the long run, according to Flickinger.

“We’ll be going from a Dickens-esque worst of times this December to the best of times in future Decembers because we’ll rationalize out all the redundant retailers and retail space in shopping centers,” Flickinger said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heather Burke in New York at [email protected].
Last Updated: December 29, 2008 16:17 EST
[link to www.bloomberg.com]

Imagine what it would feel like if you used a large chunk of your life savings to buy GM in Oct 2007 at $40 a share and now they are worth $3.60. There must be some suicidal people out there. Now these same people might have to face living in a society undeveloping around them without purchasing power and knowledge on how to live cheap. Heaven help them, heaven help us all.

Thank you for an awsome article, it is everything i have been thinking but could never put into words after being absorbed in months research and reading up on all that is happening in the world. God have mercy on the ignorant.

Regards,

kevin

GLP Effect. Everything's mental. If you can understand that, then you should be able to understand how your mental state can be messed with. That's what it's all about here, it's an experiment in how much they can mess people up. I'm pretty sure.

They brought down the Financial and Insurance markets so that they could hide all of the FELONIES they committed during the Bush-Cheney administration. That is why they allowed Slave Trader company Lehman to fail. They put Jeb Bush on the board of Lehman in August and went out of business in September? What's up with that? They are just hiding all of the electronic records of wire transfers, theft of Billions in the Middle East, pay-offs to keep everyone quiet about the crimes, etc.

What happens when the federal government declares bankruptcy next year.That's the big one coming.

To some people this is a wonderful time.
A Great opportunity.

Some people studied markets and finance and knew this was inevitable. They structured their lives for this event, while all the narcissistic ones danced, partied, and spent.

Some people have saved cash, have no debt or mortgage and have lived frugally all their life. They have watched the greedy self absorbed Americans who live like spoiled brats on borrowed money.

Arrogant aloof Americans who have looked down on other nations and have relished the thought of nuking anyone who gets in their way. They have followed The Sheenies, Disney, and Mastercard like they were pied pipers. And all the time claiming to be self sufficient, rebels, and independent thinkers. The US was invincible.

To watch a California Prima Donna go from driving a BMW to having to suck unwashed cock for survival is going to be a gratifying thing.

To some people these are very good times indeed.

People keep voting them back into office.

They're getting ready for this "guy" (Not really one of US) to come...With his group of "masters"..

He is coming soon..

Keep an eye on the sky....

And WATCH OUT!....HERE WE GO!..

This has been talked about for months. Well one article had to do with the closed door session back in May. It was speculated that the dollar would fall in september (it didnt but came damn close) and in jan-feb timeframe the fed would crash.
I dont know of anyone thats thinking its going to get better any time soon.

"Soon a darkened Pyramid will rise
Their will be no escaping from the all seeing eye
Lost In Blindness
Serving shielded masters still unknown
Chaos is their goal
Corrupt you heart and soul
The air is getting thin
Will you give in?"




When they're broken and lost everything..They're so much easier to lead..

Economy is going to bounce back around the fourth quarter of 2009. That's it, nothing more. There never was any doom. What we have today is just a bad economic cycle. Relax. As a foot note, over 90% of my savings is in the stock market. I'm keeping it there and continuing to invest heavily. Coffee can savers will remain poor indefinitely. Do yourself a favor and invest in the market.