DOW Watch January 22, 2009 – It’s Alive! It’s Alive!

Keep posting Diet! Many of us look forward to reading your threads.

How much would you like to wager?

So she's 1 for 3 this week

Lets see if she can det to .500

I was doing research about the markets before I found Diet's threads. I would read a lot on the financial blogs and forums to understand how market watchers made their predictions.

Many of those posters would make wrong calls too (even paid analysts) and in all fairness to Diet, the real problem is transparency and the system not allowing REAL market forces to work as they should. If they were, many of the trends would be predictable to certain extent.

She was right back in Dec(?) when she said there was no transparency. It will be one of the major reasons our economy will fail.

I still commend her for attempting to call it. Her trolls love it though, but as you can see, they are hard pressed to do better.

Food for thought:

[link to economicedge.blogspot.com]

The skids are being greased and the sled is carrying a whopper of deceit. Unbelievable!

[link to www.bloomberg.com]

Bank Nationalizations May Not Trigger Default Swaps

Governments would need to take over all the assets of a bank and take charge of daily operations for a nationalization to trigger payouts on credit-default swaps, according to Bank of America Corp. analysts.

Simple nationalization wouldn’t be enough to settle the derivatives, which protect investors against a company defaulting on debt repayments, New York-based strategist Glen Taksler wrote in a note today. A collapse in share prices of New York-based Citigroup Inc. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc is stoking speculation the U.S. and U.K. will be forced to take full ownership of some financial institutions.

“It’s worth noting the high threshold that would be required for bank nationalization to trigger credit-default swaps,” New York-based Taksler wrote in the note. “Simply taking a substantial ownership stake through equity is not enough.”

Events last year provide a guide to what may have to happen to trigger payouts on the contracts, Taksler wrote.

In the U.K., the nationalization of Northern Rock Plc in February 2008, which had the first run on a British lender in more than a century, didn’t prompt payments on credit-default swaps. This was because the government took over the bank’s equity and not its debt, agreed to manage it at arm’s-length and stated the institution was solvent, the note said.

A statement that a lender is insolvent may be required to start the process of paying out on default-swap contracts, he said.

Bradford & Bingley

Because Bradford & Bingley Plc, which was nationalized last year, wasn’t considered by the U.K. government to be definitely unable to meet its obligations, credit-default swaps on the Bingley, England-based lender weren’t triggered, Taksler wrote.

However, when the U.S. government took over mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September, it placed them into conservatorship, which did trigger default swaps, Taksler said.

More than $1 trillion in losses and writedowns by financial companies around the world are weighing on banks’ stock prices and their ability to repay debt. Citigroup fell 45 percent in New York trading this year, RBS, based in Edinburgh, lost 72 percent and Lloyds Banking Group Plc slipped 57 percent. The U.S., U.K. and other nations implemented bank-rescue packages including asset buyouts and debt guarantees seeking to unfreeze lending.

Anglo Irish

Ireland seized control of Anglo Irish Bank Corp., the nation’s third-largest bank, on Jan. 15 after a scandal that forced the resignations of its chief executive and chairman.

Credit-default swaps on RBS fell seven basis points to 145, according to CMA Datavision at 12:15 p.m. in London. Barclays narrowed to 190 from 198 and Lloyds fell to 130 basis points from 137. Anglo Irish widened to 422.5 basis points from 415, according to CMA.

Timothy Geithner, President Barack Obama’s nominee for Treasury secretary, said yesterday the new administration will take “ substantial action” to stabilize the banking system and ensure credit reaches small businesses.

Geithner indicated the administration is looking at using some type of a “bad,” or “aggregator” bank to remove toxic asserts from bank balance sheets. He gave no indication he’s planning outright government takeovers.

Credit-default swaps are contracts for protecting bonds against default and are used by traders to speculate on changes in credit quality. The swaps pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities if a borrower fails to adhere to its debt agreements.

A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting 10 million euros ($13 million) of debt from default for five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year.

Which is a rather fundamental flaw when you are trying to predict the movement on Wall Street. Of course it has nothing to do with the PPT (or the power of Wall Street) unless it's now the Plunge Protection Team because it's protecting the plunges and making sure they happen!

It is technically impossible to make a prediction of where the markets will end day to day. Sure some short term technical indicators like stochastics can tell you to about a day or two when a large move in the market is due but they cannot tell you where the market is going to close.

The idea itself of judging where the market will be at the end of the day is flawed. And it is a flaw which comes from the same linear thinking that so many of you hold to. Markets aren't some perfect linear systems they don't necessarily hit their lows or highs at the minute the bell rings. They turn when they are ready and can hit their low in the middle of the day or one hour into trading. If anyone were to make a point based prediction that is the prediction to make the low or high of the day not the close.

This is why you are all incapable of rationally analyzing the markets, because you don't understand the mechanism. You refuse to acknowledge their cyclical nature. "The markets must crash and they must crash now!" You refuse to accept any natural rebound from oversold conditions always blaming the PPT. "It went down then right back up then down again this cannot be normal it must be the PPT!" Have any of you even heard of Elliot Wave theory? Any of you actually studied previous bear markets and noted the fact that the biggest rallies occur during bear markets? No because all you know is the economy sucks the markets must collapse and if they don't now in one straight line it's the PPT.

Getting closer to 200
The PPT is such a joke right now.They come in about 1:30pm and agian at 3pm or so. The market turns on a dime.Usually never finishing anywhere near the low of the day.
Usually on these down days the high/low is about noon thats whe I exit.
Been doing this same thing for the last 6 weeks and only held twice till the end only to get wiped out profit wise.
Wait till they kill off all the short ETFs and then re-enter.

there is no reason I can think of for a 150pt swing back twords positive other than The FED/GOV.
Thats why I'm out by noon.

The public awaits GOOGLE results after the bell .I'm sure they will be OK since the market tomorrow rides on their rusults.
Google is the temperature of the outside world for the market.

JOBS--BAD
HOUSING- WORSE

Yet the market must always stay at 8150--SP cannot close below 820 for more than 48hrs

Hopefully today they let it sink-fukkers.

-245 is the call - DIET

dow closed -105

only off by 140 today! DIET right again!


:dietfail:

FAILED AGAIN !! GIVE THIS SHIT UP - 105

1-2-Follow ... keep up the good work, 5 star thread daily for DIET when she is wrong 99.9% of the time.

Why not read what I said above. There is no rule that says a market must hit its peak or trough dead on the bell. The market turns when it is read to do so. It's a very linear way of seeing the market when you consider 4pm everyday as some special end point. Also quick scan of the Dow for the last 10 days reveals nothing to back up what you are suggesting above.

Do U watch the market everyday like I do..Every down day has a 2-2:30 major ADJUSTMENT.Thats right its all that sideline money coming in after lunch..They used to come in at 3:30 everyday now its twice a day.

I guess your right and linear there is no PPT and the market is free.

I trade everday so I can see what happens almost to the minute.

will do!



you need to pick up my slack tomorrow though as i will not be able to call out that transexual hobag fraud. long weekend at the red rooms.

report for duty around 7:30 a.m. soldier.

You trade everyday yet you make claims which historical charts of the markets prove to be false? Like I said at best out of the last 10 days you can only point to two days that are anything like you describe in fact what you describe only really happened today. You are full of crap you say you get out of the market at 12 because you know the PPT are going to come in. Why? If you know for sure when the market is going to go up why not profit from it?

A couple companies (microsoft, google) saw their profits drop, quarter to quarter, for the first time ever, the rest of the economy is accelerating in it's tailspin, trying to find good news is like trying to find a financial company that adheres to GAAP standards (interestingly, also a name of a demon...check wikipedia!), and yet, -100 points today, with plenty of bottom calling still in the market. But of course, if 1-2-Follow and others didn't have DIET to harass, they wouldn't have much reason to be on GLP.

Oh, and for the newbies, PPT is a general term including govt folks, financial folks, and anybody else who makes trades to boost the market instead of technicals or fundamentals, to protect their job security.

So laugh it up, these folks are churning your 401k to keep people in the market, and you're losing whatever retirement you still have left, in the process.

Sorry my noobie friend but PPT or Plunge Protection Team is not a general term it was the public name given to the Working Group on Financial Markets. The PPT was created in response to the Black Monday when computer models of trading went into meltdown.

I don't know what people around here perceive the PPT to be but that's what it is. It is essentially made up of the heads of the Treasury, the Fed, the SEC and the CFTC. What it's true function is and how regularly it intervenes is unclear as with everything in the markets there is no transparency. What we do know is that as of October last year the Working Group announced they were, "taking multiple actions available to it in order to attempt to stabilize the financial system" Whatever that means.

lol...thanks for the book definition, but the govt's PPT is only the visible part of the PPT. Your definition itself shows part of the problem, nobody knows what the PPT is doing, except the general consensus that they're at least buffering rises/drops. To say that there are no corporate enablers is a daft statement.

The "old" PPT used to simply step in and buy stocks intra-day via larger corporate machines that helped hide those moves so nobody could take advantage of the play money the govt threw at the market. (In theory, at least, I'm sure there were plenty of folks making side bets against those moves.) However, those moves were easy to spot, because the rule was that the govt couldn't hold stocks overnight, so at the end of the day you'd have a giant post-market move as positions were balanced out after close.

When the market started to get really volatile last fall, people started to complain, the market would bounce or fall 200 points after the bell as these positions were getting larger. So the rule was quietly relaxed, and the PPT has more discretion to hold overnight. Around the same time, they also loosened bank's direct borrowing rules, probably to offset these changes, among other small tweaks to other rules.

Its hard enough to trade daily without bouncing both ways. I take the downside-Short ETFs and shorting stocks directly. I will make 5-6 trades on the same ETF for between 3-5$ gains per share.If its not there maybe 2. When the market starts an upeard turn I sit it out and just watch. When it moves 300-500pts up I bust out and the shorting starts. You don't trade shit and haven't watched an 8hr session yet. Old charts are good but the market today is much different so the old charts are just that OLD. you have to be fast. I do belive 1 thing the OLD charts all say is that the month of March all recession/depressions have retested the lows or have broken through them..

The PPT is there everyday the market is down

Fukkin tool-how old are you 15 with your cool avatar

Seen your 2 threads with no replies-doing well.

Do U trade or just watch CNBC for all your stock news LOL.

Really I'd be careful trying to accuse someone else of being immature when all you've got to back up your point is what someone's avatar looks like. It makes you look childish and extremely pathetic. Okay no it makes you look kind of pathetic, the fact that you've gone to the effort of looking up all my threads as a come back makes you look extremely pathetic.

I had a bit of amusement this summer, when tech traders were suddenly beginning to realize their 7 year charts weren't working out very well, and there was a scramble to dig up useful information going back to the 90s and earlier. It was kind of sad to see folks still using those same junk charts during the wild autumn, and later.

Of course, I'm not a day trader, that was just too much work for me, I did a bit of that in the late 90s, and while it was fun and exciting for a while, being buried in stock information 24/7 just can't be healthy, at least not for me.

That said, there are days I'm tempted...lol

When all you can say is what Google tell you your not dealing with reality. Sorry for the tool thing then but I do this everyday and you can SEE ithappening. You learn the new Casino rule. I have lost some in the beginning but overall I have made more in the last 6 months than I did working my 40hr week. The best is the commercial for BACKTESTING to see if you would have done well. What a joke. I can tell you 10 min after I made a buy if its good or bad..Seriously get some money get into these 2X-3x ETFs and then you can tell me what is happening. The FED/GOV cannot take another bad swing down.
All the BILLIONS on the side LOL thats where its staying.--

Yes I poked a look at your Avatar to see what your specialty may be --This aint it.

Gotta go shopping BYE

I think my big fear on something like bank nationalization is a coordinated move by the Iranian led group to make the currency switch (backed by gold, oil, Euro, doesn't really matter), throwing more chaos into an already bad pot.

We've all talked about these happening independently, but not much about a move to weaken the US economy as the government makes a relatively unpopular move.

Just something to think about...a little pre-weekend doomage to stir the pot...

Oh, and I'm guessing we're due for a bank collapse. Probably nothing big, but some smaller regional bank, to get things moving in that area, again. Just a small one last weekend in VA, but perhaps something MSM newsworthy this weekend?

[link to bankimplode.com]

I'll give 1 perfect example'SRS is 2X invers ETF to Real Estate..

IYR is the opposite of SRS

everyday IYR wants to break down so badly-SRS is moving up very nicely.
Just about 3pm IYR always has this astonishing move not only what it lost it go's positive-WTF

So now SRS basically drops like a rock losing all gains in less than 15minutes.

Who is buying IYR -no-one I know.

Also the REITS are involved in this -they break key support SRS is flying your up28%--SELL

You wait 20 min hoping the downward conyinues -next thing you know SPG is even and moving up killing your SRS ETF.

They can't let RE stock fall any further so they prop them up. This is almost a daily occurance.

Another good bet is whatever CRAMER says to buy.Wait 2-3 days while his minions load up and then short it . 90% of the time within 5 days the stock has gone downusually below where he recommened it. Its a joke and played by many.
Like I said on a down day I'm done by noon but the trigger finger wants to do 1 more trade 50% of them never work out well. You learn fast when its your money.

I never leave anything sit over the weekend except usually 300 shrs of FAZ-SRS-SKF-TZA --I'll pick 2 just in case Iran nukes itself.

Other than that I'm 90& cash every Friday.

Well, except for constant border disputes, my feeling is Iran's in good shape, till they start testing nukes, at which point, all sorts of interesting things will probably happen.

They make a lot of noise, but Iran hasn't gotten itself into a real war in several hundred years, and is one of the longest continuing societies in the world (perhaps only India has outlived them, you can track their history in a straight line all the way back to the beginning of carved history), so there's some incentive not to go bye-bye.

But heavy cash on the weekends is a good idea, especially if volatility starts to pick up again, IMO.

I was just laughing -people buy the REITS for the divi's

So they asked and were granted persmission to pay the dividend in STOCK

Last week VNO paid out 98cents in 60& cash and 40% stock.

It will all blow soon and I will be there.

Also keep some over the weekend in case all of NY gets Mad Cow..