Our Recession is ending - your chance to make $$

Here are some actual numbers:

In fact, we are profitable through the first two months of 2009 and are having our best quarter-to-date performance since the third quarter of 2007. In January and February alone, our revenues excluding externally disclosed marks were $19 billion.

The $19 billion equals about $3.50 in revenues PER SHARE in the first two months of 2009, alone. Projected over a year we can easily expect revenues exceeding $10 per share.

Given a reasonable PE ratio, the stock is worth $50/share. Take out a 40% dilution factor and it's worth $30 a share.

Consider the trading price of $2.40 right now.

do you really have a handle on their liabilities? You used the example of real estate which is plausible, but I doubt a significant amount of their exposure is in hard assets.

the banks are bright enough to value real estate properly. you figured it out and certainly they did on that small asset base. I don't think tangible assets are the "toxic debt".

look into the counterparty risks of CDS's where there isn't anything tangible. THAT's the black hole that everyone is worried about. They lived well when things were good on essentially insurance premiums but those days are over.

our insurance carrier for health care is jacking the rates 40% this renewal. Why? because their financial hijinks aren't paying off anymore and they now reflect the true costs of group insurance. If the banks have to make their money the old fashioned way (loans, fees) it will take a long time to earn that kind of money back.

Citi at 2.76/share/

Bump

Citi's Rally Undermines Hedge Funds' Trading Tack
The Wall Street Journal
By SUSAN PULLIAM and JENNY STRASBURG

In another example of the unintended consequences of the government's deep involvement in the financial markets, some hedge funds have suffered losses on a trade they thought would be easy money based on the latest bailout of Citigroup Inc.

Hedge funds rushed in to buy preferred shares of Citigroup after the New York bank announced last month that it would convert preferred shares into common stock. The fast-money crowd hoped to scoop up a quick profit based on the attractive conversion terms being offered by Citigroup to preferred shareholders, including the government.

Now, though, the hedge funds are licking their wounds. The reason: Their strategy of buying Citigroup preferred shares while selling short the common stock backfired. Since March 5, the price of Citigroup common shares has tripled, including a 23% jump Wednesday that left the stock at $3.08 in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

"There are a lot of hedge funds looking for free money, and a lot of people were betting against Citi," says Jonathon Trugman, who runs Pendulum Capital Management, a stock-picking hedge fund in New York. Hedge funds lost money on Citigroup because "not every patient who goes into coronary arrest fails to come out of it."

The hedge funds' pain from Citigroup looks like the government's gain, at least for the moment, since preferred holders would be converting each share of preferred stock into common stock that has risen mightily in value. As of Wednesday afternoon, the difference between the preferred and common shares was $8.45, based on the conversion rate of 7.31.

At the time of last month's announcement, there was a difference of $2.80 between the per-share price of Citigroup's preferred stock and the common stock. A few days later, the spread was around 70 cents.

The hedge funds brought some of the problems on themselves. Some became nervous about the conversion terms when Citigroup didn't file documents outlining the conversion as quickly as they had hoped, hedge-fund managers say. Citigroup didn't give a deadline for when it planned to make an exchange-offer filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, but many traders hoped it would come out Monday along with Citigroup's preliminary proxy filing.

Citi hit 3.89 today before rapid fall to $2.60.