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Want to know where the stock market is headed?

 
Hiro Protagonist
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04/01/2009 05:03 PM
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Want to know where the stock market is headed?
April is a special month because all the good little workers get to make their last minute 201K deposits. You can be sure the corporate advisors are telling them to put their money in stocks.

So, unless something major happens in the next 2 weeks, the market will make it's climb toward the 200 day moving average.

It could be a neck breaking pace because it will take another 1300 points to get there, but as we've seen the last few weeks it's certainly doable.

The question in this game of chicken is who will move out of the way first - bulls or bears.

I went back and looked at April of 1930 (of course there were no 201k's or even 401k's back then) but the market rebounded strongly up to the 200 day moving average during the first two weeks of the month.

But the rally failed after the second week, and we all know what happened after that. It took 20 years to get back to the 1929 levels.

This could be the bulls last hurrah, so expect nothing but happy news for the next two weeks until tax day, or like today, as the AP so aptly put it "Hope beats bad news".

After that, when selling resumes, you'll see the bad news trotted out daily to explain why the latest money added to the 201K's has suddenly disappeared.

dance

As they said on South Park...."and it's gone"

edit:forgot the link to the chart - here's where we're headed.

[link to moneycentral.msn.com]

Last Edited by Hiro Protagonist on 04/01/2009 05:05 PM
Yours Truly!
Hiro Protagonist (OP)

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04/01/2009 05:10 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
nobody?

Is it my breath?
Yours Truly!
Anonymous Coward
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04/01/2009 05:20 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
^
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Anonymous Coward
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04/01/2009 05:21 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
Most people sell some stock holdings to pay their income tax
Frigg Stuyvesant

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04/01/2009 05:23 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
I think we get it.
Cui Bono?
Anonymous Coward
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04/01/2009 05:24 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
bsflag
Anonymous Coward
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04/01/2009 05:25 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
FYI market has been up 3 straight weeks and this will be the 4th will any uptick tomorrow or Friday.

yawn
Anonymous Coward
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04/01/2009 05:26 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
DOWN; after the media/bankster LIERS can't tell another one, BIGGER that the last, and make it BELIEVEABLE !
Anonymous Coward
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04/01/2009 05:27 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
1930 did not have electronic trading yawn

Day traders did not exist, nor like 100 other things, all you people that compare 2008/ 2009 to the 1920s and 1930s are truly idiots tomato
Hiro Protagonist (OP)

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04/01/2009 05:29 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
I think we get it.
 Quoting: Frigg Stuyvesant


Which part?

Because there's many who are calling for a new bull market. Some "pundits" are starting to call a bottom and we have repeated guarantees by the "O" administration that the recession will end this year.

If you go look at the charts for 29/30 you can see the pattern.
Yours Truly!
Anonymous Coward
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04/01/2009 05:30 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
1930 did not have electronic trading yawn

Day traders did not exist, nor like 100 other things, all you people that compare 2008/ 2009 to the 1920s and 1930s are truly idiots tomato
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 647582



Everything is different yet the story remains the same. Much faster, more intertwined, bigger numbers but the lesson they have not learned .The timing may be off but this market will go down again BIG sooner than later.
Hiro Protagonist (OP)

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04/01/2009 05:32 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
1930 did not have electronic trading yawn

Day traders did not exist, nor like 100 other things, all you people that compare 2008/ 2009 to the 1920s and 1930s are truly idiots tomato
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 647582


Lol, nice try Mr. Know-nothing.

I traded for 25 years.

Charts have existed for centuries and charts don't require daytraders, computers, or your opinion about either.

If anything, it's MORE likely to happen exactly as it did in 29/30 because the computers that do the trading use historical data to make decisions.
Yours Truly!
Anonymous Coward
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04/01/2009 05:33 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
When they relax mark to market rules tomorrow...Thursday...The market will soar...the leaders will be bank stocks....


.
Hiro Protagonist (OP)

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04/01/2009 05:35 PM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
When they relax mark to market rules tomorrow...Thursday...The market will soar...the leaders will be bank stocks....


.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 647968


Possibly, but this is already known and traders trade on the rumor.

The short term trend is up, but I'd expect profit taking.
Yours Truly!
hank
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04/02/2009 09:51 AM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
Up?
Anonymous Coward
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04/02/2009 09:53 AM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
Bottom line is the dow is headed back to 10,000 minimum.

No need to analyze or overthink it.
Anonymous Coward
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04/02/2009 09:54 AM
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Re: Want to know where the stock market is headed?
1930 did not have electronic trading yawn

Day traders did not exist, nor like 100 other things, all you people that compare 2008/ 2009 to the 1920s and 1930s are truly idiots tomato


Lol, nice try Mr. Know-nothing.

I traded for 25 years.

Charts have existed for centuries and charts don't require daytraders, computers, or your opinion about either.

If anything, it's MORE likely to happen exactly as it did in 29/30 because the computers that do the trading use historical data to make decisions.
 Quoting: Hiro Protagonist

you cannot be that stupid. today's independent variables are substantially different then 1929/30. i am not saying it is going up or down, but to think that your little charts can somehow predict future market activity is laughable.

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