"Metal" Bird - Flu ..pondering when air travel would be halted..

It'll happen fast...


Like the sun setting.

I like the way you put that.

That is a very scary thought! Can you imagine if the USA and Mexico were shut off from the world? No one in and no one out! Yikes......

ditto


as its approaching night in Australia.. and i'm surprised that during the span of today it went from a disease in the US\MEXICO to now on my doorstep in New Zealand....what does tomorrow hold?

I know!! I have quite a few friends and family members who are traveling now or have plans to..

* I suppose it wouldn't be horrible to be stuck in Hawaii *

We knew planes would be a MAJOR problem in a situation like this. Movies have portrayed it, books, discussions.. Planning.. etc.. We knew..

Is there anything out there document wise that tells any specifics about when to halt air travel? Probably somewhere, I'll search too..

I guess it wouldnt only be planes..

Large-scale spatial transmission epidemic models

[link to vcolizza.googlepages.com]



also..

Mechanistic epidemic approaches

Would travel restrictions work to contain the next pandemic flu? A key issue dominating the recent discussions on containment plans against a possible pandemic influenza is the effectiveness of restriction measures on the international air travel. Recent findings based on detailed data-driven numerical simulations pointed out the limited benefit provided by feasible travel flows reductions in slowing down the global spread of an infectious disease not contained at the source. Introducing the coarse-grained framework, it is possible to study the problem of travel restrictions aimed at halting the spread by reducing the amount of travelers. Results show that the complex structure of realistic mobility patterns, characterized by the presence of highly connected cities, would favor the global spread of epidemics, notwithstanding huge reductions in the travel flows. The complex nature of our increasingly interconnected world is responsible for the failure of feasible travel restriction measures.

This was modeled for SARS.. but same type thing..


Computational approaches for large-scale spatial transmission rely on multi-scale or metapopulation models where the population is structured into separate communities (e.g. city locations, urban areas, regions) connected by individual mobility patterns. Random mixing is assumed at the lowest level of description, i.e. within the local community, whereas detailed knowledge of mobility patterns provide the connections between relatively isolated communities. In this framework, we developed a large-scale model for the transmission of an infectious disease via air travel, building on the works by Baroyan et al. (Bull Int Epidemiol Assoc 18: 22–31, 1969) and Rvachev & Longini (Math Biosci 75: 3–22, 1985). The model integrates the complete IATA (International Air Transport Association) database with 3,100 airports in the world and almost 20,000 connections, each characterized by the travel flux of passengers on a daily basis. The travel data is complemented by detailed census data of the population size of the urban areas surrounding each of the 3,100 airports, representing the local community of the multi-scale model.

The approach can be used: (i) to address theoretical problems for the understanding of the role of travel behavior in the international spread of epidemics; (ii) to study specific applications as e.g. reproducing the worldwide spread of SARS to validate the model and investigate the mechanisms responsible for the observed pattern; (iii) to provide forecasts of an emerging pandemic influenza and strategies to control it; (iv) to produce risk assessment scenario analysis in case of bioterrorism attacks and propose appropriate intervention strategies.

Role of transportation.

The complexity of the airline transportation network, characterized by large fluctuations in the number of connections of each airport (from few connections to a max of 318 for Frankfurt, Germany), decreases our ability to provide reliable forecasts, since it provides a large number of possible paths for the infectious traveler to take. On the other hand, the large fluctuations in the number of passengers on each flight connection (from few passengers to 106) increase the accuracy and reliability of the epidemic predictions by identifying some preferred channels of propagation, called epidemic pathways.

plane travel won't be shut down till , some country threaten's to shootdown american/mexican flights and then does it.
to much $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ in travel/business/tourism to give a shit about spreading death to the peons.

At what point do humans become more important than trade, airline, and oil profits?



Swine flu could infect US trade and travel

[link to tvnz.co.nz]

<snip>

Katherine Andrus, general counsel for the Air Transport Association, said the airline trade group is taking its cues from the WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) but that so far there had been no decision to restrict travel between the United States and Mexico.

Travel restrictions?

"Any time there is an outbreak of something ... we certainly pay attention. But we really look to CDC," Andrus said. "We wouldn't expect to see international air traffic actually halted for something like this."

US Commerce Department data shows about 5.9 million US citizens flew to Mexico in 2008.

The last major health-related disruption of air travel came during the 2002-2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which killed hundreds of people around the world.

The SARS outbreak, which began in China, came on the heels of the September 11 attacks on the United States in 2001 and hit earnings for airlines with large operations in Asia.

"Avian flu in 1997 and SARS in 2002-2003 killed economic activity, so a swine flu problem in 2009 might result in more of the same," said Stephen Schork, editor of the Schork Report, an energy-related newsletter in Philadelphia.

In 2008, Mexico was the top export market for US beef, with sales valued at nearly $2.4 billion ($US1.4 billion). It was the No. 2 market for US pork, valued at $1,207.17 million ($US 691.28 billion).

"It is too early to tell what impact we could see," said a spokesperson at Schneider National Inc, the largest privately held US trucking company.

The pressure on oil prices that could result from decreased travel and economic activity was echoed by several other industry sources, who also noted that Mexico and Texas have large numbers of oil industry workers that could be affected.

Exactlyyyyyyyyyyyy



I was just reading that..

It seems plane travel is the most often reported cause.. besides Cali, Texas, and Mexico.. It got me thinking.

we expected bird flu.. we sort of got it..

problem, reaction, solution???


Will people want travel halted?

I really think world travel has gotten to a point where it is too massive to control.. I can't imagine everything stopping.


What do you guys think public reaction will be about travel if this continues?

May 23rd 2009

I just can't imagine...

Travel advisory for flights to/from Mexico City

[link to www.newswire.ca]

MONTREAL, April 26 /CNW Telbec/ - Due to an outbreak of Human Swine
Influenza in Mexico City, Air Canada is providing the following information
for customers with plans to travel to/from the area:
For customers with reservations for travel to/from Mexico City up to
April 30th, Air Canada is waiving change fees in order to facilitate changes
to travel plans and allow for travel at a later date.
Customers may rebook their travel without penalty, through Air Canada
Reservations at 1-888-247-2262; TTY hearing impaired: 1-800-361-8071, or
through their travel agent.
Air Canada continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide
further travel updates as developments occur. For further information on Swine
Influenza, customers are encouraged to consult the Public Health Agency of
Canada website at: [link to www.phac-aspc.gc.ca]


_____________________________________________________________​______


Swine flu outbreak sparks travel advisory from US Airways

[link to www.abc15.com]

Tempe-based US Airways has issued a travel advisory on their website because of the swine flu outbreak.

[link to www.usairways.com]

The airline said it will waive standard change fee, advance reservation and ticketing requirements for customers with travel to, from or through Mexico City on the dates of April 24th through April 30th.

The change will allow airline travelers to move their entire itinerary up to seven days before or after the scheduled origination date.

Travelers can also apply the full value of their unused tickets toward the purchase of a ticket to an alternate destination, although travel must originate within seven days of the scheduled origination date.

Passengers can called the airline at 800-428-4322 for more information.

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Swine flu and the airlines - carriers, airports respond to "public health emergency"

[link to www.examiner.com]


<snip>

Mexicana appears to be the first of what could be a number of airlines to allow passengers scheduled to fly to Mexico City (MEX) to change their plans. The airline says it “is offering international passengers traveling to Mexico City, or who are required to catch connecting flights at the Mexico City airport, the option of rescheduling their flights and/or travel dates at no extra charge.’

Flyers have to be booked to travel between April 24 and April 30.

The World Health Organization, “the current situation constitutes a public health emergency of international concern.” WHO is recommending that “all countries intensify surveillance for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illnesses and severe pneumonia.”

The International Civil Aviation Organization recommends that its members “review their preparedness plans for aviation and consider how they may be implemented in the event that the current situation becomes more widespread.”

That is precisely what worries health officials and airlines, that the swine flu could spread. They vividly remember the damage done to public health, the economy, and air travel by the November 2002 to July 2003 outbreak of SARS – Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. SARS claimed at least 774 lives, and its epicenter was Asia. During that time, Asian airlines were hard hit. Carriers such as Cathay Pacific flew nearly empty, with cabin crew wiping down tray tables, seats and such with disinfectant to stem the spread of the virus.



edited for 50% rule


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Last Edited by Tangy on 08/22/2011 11:47 PM