Large-scale spatial transmission epidemic models

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Mechanistic epidemic approaches

Would travel restrictions work to contain the next pandemic flu? A key issue dominating the recent discussions on containment plans against a possible pandemic influenza is the effectiveness of restriction measures on the international air travel. Recent findings based on detailed data-driven numerical simulations pointed out the limited benefit provided by feasible travel flows reductions in slowing down the global spread of an infectious disease not contained at the source. Introducing the coarse-grained framework, it is possible to study the problem of travel restrictions aimed at halting the spread by reducing the amount of travelers. Results show that the complex structure of realistic mobility patterns, characterized by the presence of highly connected cities, would favor the global spread of epidemics, notwithstanding huge reductions in the travel flows. The complex nature of our increasingly interconnected world is responsible for the failure of feasible travel restriction measures.