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School closes in UK Flu

 
Cynical Realist
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User ID: 658760
United Kingdom
05/01/2009 11:58 AM
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School closes in UK Flu
British school in Bristol is closing untill the 11th may. Puilp confirmed with swine flu.. She was on the same plane as the scottish couple, who were first confimed here in the UK. Link... BBC
.... And thats coming from an old Cynic

A Brit quote. Cynical Serialist
Cynical Realist (OP)

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05/01/2009 12:05 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
[link to news.bbc.co.uk]



Look at the latest news Although School not mentioned there... It will be closed till the 11th
.... And thats coming from an old Cynic

A Brit quote. Cynical Serialist
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 12:06 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
Better to be safe than sorry. Right now in the UK there is a 1 in 5.5 million chance of getting swine flu and a zero chance of dying.
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 12:08 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
LOL, i am in Bristol.
BTW i can't seem to find the news about Bristol school closing. Your link only talk about a guy who got it from the couple who came from Mexico.
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 12:10 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
They're closing schools but letting sporting events carry on tomorrow.
Cynical Realist (OP)

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05/01/2009 12:11 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
The school is Downend School in Bristol
.... And thats coming from an old Cynic

A Brit quote. Cynical Serialist
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 12:11 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
why 1 in 5.5 million?
Its more like 1 in 60 million.
Did you know chances of winning the lottery is only 1 in 14 million?
So, i think there is more chances of winning the lottery than getting the flu. I think i'll go and buy a ticket in Asda.
I am in Bristol.
Cynical Realist (OP)

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05/01/2009 12:12 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
LOL, i am in Bristol.
BTW i can't seem to find the news about Bristol school closing. Your link only talk about a guy who got it from the couple who came from Mexico.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 276706


Its runing across the top of the latest news ticker... also reported on Telly.

Last Edited by Cynical Realist on 05/01/2009 12:12 PM
.... And thats coming from an old Cynic

A Brit quote. Cynical Serialist
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 12:12 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
The school is Downend School in Bristol
 Quoting: Cynical Realist

Really? My brothers boy goes there.WOW
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 12:23 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
The school is Downend School in Bristol

Really? My brothers boy goes there.WOW
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 276706

Just texted him to see if he had more news. They came round to dinner to our house last night.

Just text back to say they had to go and collect his son from school as it has been shut down.

The girl in question is from year 7. My brothers son is in year 8
Cynical Realist (OP)

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05/01/2009 12:25 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
The school is Downend School in Bristol

Really? My brothers boy goes there.WOW

Just texted him to see if he had more news. They came round to dinner to our house last night.

Just text back to say they had to go and collect his son from school as it has been shut down.

The girl in question is from year 7. My brothers son is in year 8
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 276706

And an extra week off also tounge
.... And thats coming from an old Cynic

A Brit quote. Cynical Serialist
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 12:35 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
Yup. My brother just said his son is chuffed. No school for another week.
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 12:42 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
I shouldn't be worried really but i am a bit now. We had dinner with my brother and his family last night. Now this morning the school that my brother's 12 year old son goes to has been closed because a girl one year younger had the flu from a trip to Mexico. Now i wonder how much of it has been transfered to the rest of school. Which in turn might be transfered to me, my wife (who is a nurse and works with special needs)and my daughter and my sister who was with us last night.

I guess i must be the first would be casualty of this in UK who is on GLP.
Shit, i never thought it would be me.LOL
Wraithwynd

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05/01/2009 12:55 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
The Math, the Math, The Math...

28 April there were 99 confirmed cases

29 April there were 154 confirmed cases

Yesterday 30 April there were 212 confirmed cases.

Today 1 May there are 478 confirmed cases

Source:

[link to news.bbc.co.uk]

99 to 154 (growth 1.55)
154 to 212 (growth 1.376)
212 to 478(growth 2.254)

Lets assume that growth remains constant at an average of those growth figures (1.822)

That means 2 May expected confirmed cases will be 871
3 May 1566
4 May 2850
5 May 5187
6 May 9440
7 May 17,180
8 May 31,267
9 May 56,907
10 May 103,570

If this is a non stop 100% communicable disease, then by 20 May we could be looking at 41,300,109 cases. Yes you read that correctly 41 million.

Even with a low death rate of say 0.05% we are talking a potential 20,650 deaths. Even with a mortality rate of just ).01% we would see 4,130 deaths of the infected population of 20 may.

That's just 20 days down the road.

The math will change as time progresses - mark my words this latest jump in the numbers is not the last large 'sudden' leap. The processing of information and tests will lead to skewed updates of the numbers - that is if the BBC is even given the real numbers.
Sinkhole list:
Thread: Sinkholes Updated 28 Dec 2010
find a sinkhole, add it to this thread, please.

"Whoever hates his brother is a murderer, and you know that no murderer has eternal life abiding in him." (1 John 3:15, NKJV).
suezq
User ID: 668345
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05/01/2009 01:16 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
Well done, Wraith... great explanation. I'm so tired of people saying that the flu goes around all the time, like that somehow negates the need to prepare or stay vigilant. Knowledge is power; thanks for the perspective.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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05/01/2009 05:33 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
bump
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 05:51 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
Well done, Wraith... great explanation. I'm so tired of people saying that the flu goes around all the time, like that somehow negates the need to prepare or stay vigilant. Knowledge is power; thanks for the perspective.
 Quoting: suezq 668345



and the math, i hate doing that bit! hf
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 05:56 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
Update on Flu in Bristol.
I have spoken to my brother. He says that only the year 7 students were given Tamiflu tablets and the rest of the school were sent home and told not to worry. I kinda think this may not be correct since the student would have been in contact with all age groups in the school.
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 06:01 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
Update on Flu in Bristol.
I have spoken to my brother. He says that only the year 7 students were given Tamiflu tablets and the rest of the school were sent home and told not to worry. I kinda think this may not be correct since the student would have been in contact with all age groups in the school.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 276706


I hope the parents of those kids keep a very close eye on them. Tamiflu can make them suicidal like it did to the kids in Japan who took it.
Anonymous Coward
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05/01/2009 06:05 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
why 1 in 5.5 million?
Its more like 1 in 60 million.
Did you know chances of winning the lottery is only 1 in 14 million?
So, i think there is more chances of winning the lottery than getting the flu. I think i'll go and buy a ticket in Asda.
I am in Bristol.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 276706

If there is a population of 60 million and 11 people have flu, it is 1 in 5.5 million.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 669319
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05/01/2009 06:37 PM
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Re: School closes in UK Flu
lol

more than 11 have the flu ffs

how many thousands are just toughing it out?

this is all bullshit. this virus is probably sitting inside YOU at this very second, reading this bollocks I just typed!

chuckle

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