Godlike Productions - Conspiracy Forum
Users Online Now: 1,638 (Who's On?)Visitors Today: 721,498
Pageviews Today: 825,493Threads Today: 117Posts Today: 2,170
03:41 AM

Back to Forum
Back to Forum
Back to Thread
Back to Thread
Message Subject School closes in UK Flu
Poster Handle Wraithwynd
Post Content
The Math, the Math, The Math...

28 April there were 99 confirmed cases

29 April there were 154 confirmed cases

Yesterday 30 April there were 212 confirmed cases.

Today 1 May there are 478 confirmed cases


[link to news.bbc.co.uk]

99 to 154 (growth 1.55)
154 to 212 (growth 1.376)
212 to 478(growth 2.254)

Lets assume that growth remains constant at an average of those growth figures (1.822)

That means 2 May expected confirmed cases will be 871
3 May 1566
4 May 2850
5 May 5187
6 May 9440
7 May 17,180
8 May 31,267
9 May 56,907
10 May 103,570

If this is a non stop 100% communicable disease, then by 20 May we could be looking at 41,300,109 cases. Yes you read that correctly 41 million.

Even with a low death rate of say 0.05% we are talking a potential 20,650 deaths. Even with a mortality rate of just ).01% we would see 4,130 deaths of the infected population of 20 may.

That's just 20 days down the road.

The math will change as time progresses - mark my words this latest jump in the numbers is not the last large 'sudden' leap. The processing of information and tests will lead to skewed updates of the numbers - that is if the BBC is even given the real numbers.
Please verify you're human:

Reason for copyright violation: