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Message Subject School closes in UK Flu
Poster Handle Wraithwynd
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The Math, the Math, The Math...

28 April there were 99 confirmed cases

29 April there were 154 confirmed cases

Yesterday 30 April there were 212 confirmed cases.

Today 1 May there are 478 confirmed cases

Source:

[link to news.bbc.co.uk]

99 to 154 (growth 1.55)
154 to 212 (growth 1.376)
212 to 478(growth 2.254)

Lets assume that growth remains constant at an average of those growth figures (1.822)

That means 2 May expected confirmed cases will be 871
3 May 1566
4 May 2850
5 May 5187
6 May 9440
7 May 17,180
8 May 31,267
9 May 56,907
10 May 103,570

If this is a non stop 100% communicable disease, then by 20 May we could be looking at 41,300,109 cases. Yes you read that correctly 41 million.

Even with a low death rate of say 0.05% we are talking a potential 20,650 deaths. Even with a mortality rate of just ).01% we would see 4,130 deaths of the infected population of 20 may.

That's just 20 days down the road.

The math will change as time progresses - mark my words this latest jump in the numbers is not the last large 'sudden' leap. The processing of information and tests will lead to skewed updates of the numbers - that is if the BBC is even given the real numbers.
 
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