|
| Page 1, 2, 3 |
U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 4:17 PM
Report abusive post | U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
| Quote |
[link to news.yahoo.com]
THURSDAY, May 7 (HealthDay News) -- The number of confirmed or suspected cases of swine flu in the United States was approaching 1,900, federal health officials said Thursday, with most new cases now caused by person-to-person transmission and not some link to Mexico, as was the case when the outbreak began nearly two weeks ago.
"Only about 10 percent of confirmed cases have a travel history for Mexico," which is believed to be the source of the outbreak, Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said during an afternoon teleconference. "This indicates ongoing transmission in communities. We would expect that as this [virus] travels more around the country that we are going to see that number go down. While there may have been introduction from travel to Mexico, the spread that's ongoing does not require travel to Mexico," he added.
Besser said there are now 1,823 probable and confirmed cases in 44 states, with most of the infections mild and leading to a quick recovery. The median age of hospitalized individuals with swine flu is 15.
He also said the CDC plans to stop concentrating on reporting numbers of cases and start concentrating on where flu activity is most pronounced in the country. "At some point reporting on individual cases no longer has value from a public health perspective, but knowing where in the country we are seeing large amounts of flu activity does remain important," he added.
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 605338
5/7/2009 4:19 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Still no islamic nations been hit............ !!! |
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 4:21 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
These were the graphs I made last Friday morning. At the time, I figured this week would hold, and was hoping that by next week the projected trend would fall. My projections were that by May 7, there would be 1950 some odd cases in the U.S.
 
Here were the numbers used:
As of Last Friday, this was the data:
Date, Confirmed, Rate
4/24 7
4/25 no data no data
4/26 20 2.857142857
4/27 40 2
4/28 64 1.6
4/29 91 1.421875
4/30 109 1.197802198
5/1 141 1.293577982
These were my projections for the following week (this week):
Date, Projected Cases, Rate used (1.55)
5/2 218.55 1.55
5/3 338.7525 1.55
5/4 525.066375 1.55
5/5 813.8528813 1.55
5/6 1261.471966 1.55
5/7 1955.281547 1.55
5/8 3030.686398 1.55
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 4:22 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Next week's graph looks insane. So hopefully summer heat will kill this thing off quickly!
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 526325
5/7/2009 4:24 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Still no islamic nations been hit............ !!! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 605338
Allah rules? |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 526325
5/7/2009 4:25 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Still no islamic nations been hit............ !!! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 605338
Funny, but wrong
[link to healthmap.org] |
|
TreeNode
User ID: 646269
5/7/2009 4:27 PM | |
Sude the Mucus factory
User ID: 674005
5/7/2009 4:46 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
That is because the virus was already spread in the carribean being diagnosed as other causes of death.
When it hit mexico it was widely spread ..
Natural carriers are birds and pigeons ...
so migratory birds fron the carribean had already infected the US regions up to canada , when sumer hits ...
thats the time things will get realy Hot ..
 Coff! Snifff! Snorrrrttt.. Ptew!  |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 674037
5/7/2009 4:48 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Next week's graph looks insane. So hopefully summer heat will kill this thing off quickly! Quoting: jlazarus
Good job on the graphs. Scary as shit if their accuracy continues. |
|
Dreamer567
User ID: 31340
5/7/2009 4:52 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
[link to www.cdc.gov]
on the above map it shows 204 infected in Ill. Anyone have news on why so infected there? |
|
^TrInItY^  
Forum Administrator
5/7/2009 4:53 PM
 | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Next week's graph looks insane. So hopefully summer heat will kill this thing off quickly! Quoting: jlazarus
post next weeks graph man!
Few will listen,
Of the few who listen, fewer still will understand,
Understanding does not mean believe,
Of the handful who believe, most may not know what to do,
Those who even know, how many will actually do ?
And the rare ones who have done it.......
Need not listen to you anymore.
|
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 5:02 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Next week's graph looks insane. So hopefully summer heat will kill this thing off quickly!
post next weeks graph man! Quoting: ^TrInItY^
Edited to add:
I used 1.55 as the rate as explained above - that rate should drop down to about 1.2, and like I said, going all the way to 1.15, maybe 1.1 over the next month. To see those numbers, go to page 2 - I posted revised numbers with the rate going down to 1.1.
The number should go down for a number of reasons - summer, etc., but also, as people get it, they build immunity and as their friends are exposed, their little 'ring' of potential hosts is narrowed. I just don't know WHEN that rate will drop. I am not an expert in epidemics, so when it starts to shift? I don't know!
---------------------------------
Here they are...They are also in the the original post from last week (just to show the time I made these was last Friday):
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Here are the graphs - but please understand, just as I said last week, these have GOT to be wrong...because..well, they are just too insane, and because the exponential factor SHOULD drop down as summer heat hits.
Edited to add the May 15 week because it didn't post originally.
Last Edited by jlazarus on 5/7/2009 at 6:50 PM
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 432850
5/7/2009 5:03 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
I'm calling June "Hell Month" |
|
OneAngryMom
User ID: 506709
5/7/2009 5:06 PM
 | |
^TrInItY^
Forum Administrator
5/7/2009 5:07 PM
| | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Next week's graph looks insane. So hopefully summer heat will kill this thing off quickly!
post next weeks graph man!
Here they are...They are also in the the original post from last week (just to show the time I made these was last Friday):
[ link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Here are the graphs - but please understand, just as I said last week, these have GOT to be wrong...because..well, they are just too insane, and because the exponential factor SHOULD drop down as summer heat hits.
woa
they are not wrong and you know it
that's exponential growth
Few will listen,
Of the few who listen, fewer still will understand,
Understanding does not mean believe,
Of the handful who believe, most may not know what to do,
Those who even know, how many will actually do ?
And the rare ones who have done it.......
Need not listen to you anymore.
|
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 5:10 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
These are the data points for 5-8 5-14
5/8 3,023 1.55
5/9 4,686 1.55
5/10 7,263 1.55
5/11 11,257 1.55
5/12 17,449 1.55
5/13 27,046 1.55
5/14 41,922 1.55
Surely, sometime around the 11th, that rate will drop. Can it hold it that long?
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 671341
5/7/2009 5:11 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
 |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 563380
5/7/2009 5:13 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.
99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP. |
|
FyreStorm
User ID: 588922
5/7/2009 5:14 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.
99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 563380
[link to www.fyreblade.com]
[link to www.mywrigleyville.com] |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 563380
5/7/2009 5:17 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.
99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP.
really? how many predictions actually come true on here? a few every couple of years. the majority of people on here did believe that our country was gonna fall apart months ago. when that didn't happen all of you just switched to the next major scare. this virus.
it never ends with people on here. every few months it's a new thing and it eventually fads away. there aren't gonna be any mandatory shots, this isn't gonna turn into resident evil, and in 2 months this whole thing will have faded away and you nuts will be taking about the next scare that will bring the end of the world..... |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 673832
5/7/2009 5:17 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
LOOK AT THIS ANIMATION. BOOKMARK IT. STOP THINKING THIS THING IS GOING AWAY.
IT IS NOT GOING AWAY!
[link to www.swine-flu-map-animation.com] |
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 5:19 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.
99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 563380
I did the graphs last Friday based on the first week's rate of growth.
I agree, the last two weeks are skewed. If you look at my original post form last Friday, I said that myself.
I think the reason they are skewed is that people over 50 might just have a natural immunity, which should slow the growth rate. Evidence so far points to younger people being much more susceptible.
Also, yes, forecast rates should drop - statistically speaking.
But those numbers from the first week were based on published numbers. You can check them if you like.
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 5:20 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
really? how many predictions actually come true on here? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 563380
Not many, lol! And mine is NOT a prediction, although 1 week out it was spot on. It's just a trend rate, nothing more.
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
FyreStorm
User ID: 588922
5/7/2009 5:20 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.
99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP.
really? how many predictions actually come true on here? a few every couple of years. the majority of people on here did believe that our country was gonna fall apart months ago. when that didn't happen all of you just switched to the next major scare. this virus.
it never ends with people on here. every few months it's a new thing and it eventually fads away. there aren't gonna be any mandatory shots, this isn't gonna turn into resident evil, and in 2 months this whole thing will have faded away and you nuts will be taking about the next scare that will bring the end of the world.....
allow me one more time
[link to www.fyreblade.com]
[link to www.mywrigleyville.com] |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 673144
5/7/2009 5:22 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
whats the June chart prediction? |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 665963
5/7/2009 5:23 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
median age is 15? That is very odd. |
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 5:23 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Also, I will add that two weeks is not enough data to come to accurate conclusions.
But we don't have a crystal ball.
All we have are the numbers that are being published.
I am not a fear monger. I am also not putting my head in the sand.
All I - or anyone can do - is look at the data we *have* and try to sort out what the possibilities are, and make preparations if we think they are needed. I am not to the 'the sky is falling' stage yet.
1 week from today we'll look back at the numbers and reassess.
That's what able minded people should do. Don't you agree?
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 5:25 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
median age is 15? That is very odd. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 665963
Yes, very odd!
[link to cbs13.com]
From that article:
1.) U.S. health officials said the median age for confirmed hospital cases in the United States is 15. And in Mexico, new figures showed that almost half of the 42 confirmed swine flu deaths were of people 29 and younger.
2.) During the regular winter flu season, elderly people and those with chronic health conditions are the most likely to be sent to a hospital.
3.) On Tuesday, Mexico's Health Department released figures showing Mexicans 19 and younger accounted for more than half of those confirmed ill from the virus.
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 5:27 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Absolutely - knowledge of how to prepare is always relevant in my opinion!
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 605000
5/7/2009 5:28 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
The key thing for me is that the CDC said that "numbers won't be tracked anymore and that only affected areas shaded".
They really dont want anyone knowing how bad this thing is. |
|
jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 5:29 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
whats the June chart prediction? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 673144
That's how I know these have to be off a bit. By June, those numbers just are not believable.
I posted the data points so that others could figure the numbers as well. If you do that, you will see that something has to change - my guess is Summer Heat, combined with only a partial population getting infected due to age!
What worries me is the young people. I have a 19 yo, an 18 yo and a 16 yo. Blah!
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
|
| Page 1, 2, 3 |
|
