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U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track

 
Riker

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05/07/2009 05:43 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
These are the data points for 5-8 5-14

5/8 3,023 1.55
5/9 4,686 1.55
5/10 7,263 1.55
5/11 11,257 1.55
5/12 17,449 1.55
5/13 27,046 1.55
5/14 41,922 1.55


Surely, sometime around the 11th, that rate will drop. Can it hold it that long?
 Quoting: jlazarus


According to the simulation that was being posted often on GLP and elsewhere, the peak of the epidemic was day 89 from onset. This was assuming 10 cases beginning in L.A.

The first known case that I've read was March 13 in Mexico. Even if you assume the first cases didn't hit Texas/California till April 1, that puts the peak at around July 1.

Would you please create the graphs through July 1?


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jlazarus (OP)

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05/07/2009 05:45 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
Would you please create the graphs through July 1?


 Quoting: Riker

Well, I don't have access to my graphic program right now so saving the graph into a jpeg isn't possible right this moment.

Also, the numbers get so out of whack by July 1 they just are not credible.

I don't think these are predictions of reality, but potential. And let's hope potential is nipped in the bud!
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein
Riker

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05/07/2009 05:46 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
whats the June chart prediction?

That's how I know these have to be off a bit. By June, those numbers just are not believable.

I posted the data points so that others could figure the numbers as well. If you do that, you will see that something has to change - my guess is Summer Heat, combined with only a partial population getting infected due to age!

What worries me is the young people. I have a 19 yo, an 18 yo and a 16 yo. Blah!
 Quoting: jlazarus


JL, please post the june graphs anyway. Some people here are idiots and some of us can explore possibilities (no matter how remote) without freaking out and assuming that they are true or that you are fearmongering.

I think it is just interesting to see something grow exponentially like that.
You shall know the TRUTH, and the TRUTH shall set you free.
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Riker

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05/07/2009 05:48 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
Would you please create the graphs through July 1?



Well, I don't have access to my graphic program right now so saving the graph into a jpeg isn't possible right this moment.

Also, the numbers get so out of whack by July 1 they just are not credible.

I don't think these are predictions of reality, but potential. And let's hope potential is nipped in the bud!
 Quoting: jlazarus


Sorry, I was typing my prior post when you posted this.

What makes them not credible - because they are hard to believe? Unbelievable does not mean impossible.
You shall know the TRUTH, and the TRUTH shall set you free.
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Psa 51:10

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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
[link to www.cdc.gov]

on the above map it shows 204 infected in Ill. Anyone have news on why so infected there?
 Quoting: Dreamer567


Probably because O'Hare airport is one of the busiest airports in the world.
Never mind.
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2009 05:51 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
Still no islamic nations been hit............ !!!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 605338

stir
jlazarus (OP)

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05/07/2009 05:54 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
What makes them not credible - because they are hard to believe? Unbelievable does not mean impossible.
 Quoting: Riker

Can't post the graph but I can post the numbers. Yes, they are not credible because...well frankly, the numbers surpass the population...(of the U.S. - remember, these numbers were based on U.S. cases - not world cases. On the 1st, Wraithwynd did a similar trend using the World Numbers - his numbers began getting out of whack around the same time. I 'll see if I can find his thread. I think MOI posted it somewhere...)

5/29 25,116,989 1.55
5/30 38,931,333 1.55
5/31 60,343,566 1.55
6/1 93,532,528 1.55
6/2 144,975,418 1.55
6/3 224,711,898 1.55
6/4 348,303,443 1.55

Edited to Add: Riker - check out Doom's post about using the 1.2 rate..I modified the numbers to take the 1.55 down to 1.2 and even down to 1.11. Those numbers are more credible, but not a whole lot. I still think they are too high. Maybe it will drop faster? Just my opinion.

Last Edited by jlazarus on 05/07/2009 06:38 PM
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein
jlazarus (OP)

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05/07/2009 05:55 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
Probably because O'Hare airport is one of the busiest airports in the world.
 Quoting: Psa 51:10

I agree and makes sense that plaes like Chicago, LA, Dallas, NY would have higher numbers based on what you just said.

The anomaly to that is Atlanta....Why is GA so low? Is it hotter there now and temps are affected the infectious rate?
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein
DOOM WATCHER

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05/07/2009 06:04 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
What makes them not credible - because they are hard to believe? Unbelievable does not mean impossible.

Can't post the graph but I can post the numbers. Yes, they are not credible because...well frankly, the numbers surpass the population...(of the U.S. - remember, these numbers were based on U.S. cases - not world cases. On the 1st, Wraithwynd did a similar trend using the World Numbers - his numbers began getting out of whack around the same time. I 'll see if I can find his thread. I think MOI posted it somewhere...)

5/29 25,116,989 1.55
5/30 38,931,333 1.55
5/31 60,343,566 1.55
6/1 93,532,528 1.55
6/2 144,975,418 1.55
6/3 224,711,898 1.55
6/4 348,303,443 1.55
 Quoting: jlazarus




I have for the most part agreed with your posts on the subject, however, I think that the R0 you are using is too aggressive.

I believe the actual R0 to be somewhere between 1.2-1.28.

Not 1.55

That said, the numbers will still be similar, just the time scale will be a little different. 1.2 is still exponential growth.

I believe we will see something approaching 750,000 - 1,000,000 confirmed cases by the beginning of June - and that we will see the numbers you came up with of 16million by 5/30, pushed back until the middle/later half of June.

But yeah, make no mistake. Unless the summer heat kills off the spread of the virus, we are looking at exponential growth.

Cheers.

Last Edited by DOOM WATCHER on 05/07/2009 06:05 PM
jlazarus (OP)

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05/07/2009 06:10 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
I have for the most part agreed with your posts on the subject, however, I think that the R0 you are using is too aggressive.

I believe the actual R0 to be somewhere between 1.2-1.28.

Not 1.55

That said, the numbers will still be similar, just the time scale will be a little different. 1.2 is still exponential growth.

I believe we will see something approaching 750,000 - 1,000,000 confirmed cases by the beginning of June - and that we will see the numbers you came up with of 16million by 5/30, pushed back until the middle/later half of June.

But yeah, make no mistake. Unless the summer heat kills off the spread of the virus, we are looking at exponential growth.

Cheers.
 Quoting: DOOM WATCHER

I actually AGREE :) That was the rate I used last friday - based on week of data, and just averaging out throwing out the first and last date.

Yes, I think it will drop. I have seen 1.5 published in an article or two though, but I agree it will drop. I actually think it will drop to about 1.15.

What was strange to me, and why I posted this today, was that my number last week was actually the topic for that article in the OP. And the number was eerily close!

But yes, that rate should drop down to about 1.2, and like I said, going all the way to 1.15, maybe 1.1 over the next month.

For one thing, as people get it, they build immunity and as their friends are exposed, their little 'ring' of potential hosts is narrowed.
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2009 06:12 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
the epidemic function is sinusoidal.
~Moi~

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05/07/2009 06:14 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
Would you please create the graphs through July 1?



Well, I don't have access to my graphic program right now so saving the graph into a jpeg isn't possible right this moment.

Also, the numbers get so out of whack by July 1 they just are not credible.

I don't think these are predictions of reality, but potential. And let's hope potential is nipped in the bud!


Sorry, I was typing my prior post when you posted this.

What makes them not credible - because they are hard to believe? Unbelievable does not mean impossible.
 Quoting: Riker

Op you are doing an awesome job! Some of us know how these pandemics work, based on our knowledge and training. Eh Riker.
I do not believe your numbers are wrong in the least.. that is the way pandemics work.. increasing almost double in numbers every day... Ignore those who do not understand, they will see for themselves soon enough!
"I saw an angel in the marble and carved until I set him free" ~ Michelangelo
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2009 06:21 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
In the news now: 4 confirmed cases in Brazil, so it´s spreading south either...in contradiction to those who said that it was a north american flu
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2009 06:25 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
Gotta milk this thing for all it is worth, doncha'?

After all, how else are you going to declare martial law?
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2009 06:26 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
In the news now: 4 confirmed cases in Brazil, so it´s spreading south either...in contradiction to those who said that it was a north american flu
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 674195

Its starting be winter there
jlazarus (OP)

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05/07/2009 06:32 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
That said, the numbers will still be similar, just the time scale will be a little different. 1.2 is still exponential growth.
Cheers.
 Quoting: DOOM WATCHER

Any ideas on how to drop that 1.5 number down? I mean, it shouldn't go down all at once...and so far that rate has been right....

but if I take the numbers and apply it down - incrementally, starting off slow, then faster, then plateau at 1.1, this is the result:


5/8 1,950 1.55
5/9 3,023 1.54
5/10 4,656 1.53
5/11 7,123 1.52
5/12 10,827 1.51
5/13 16,349 1.5
5/14 24,523 1.48
5/15 36,294 1.46
5/16 52,989 1.44
5/17 76,304 1.42
5/18 108,352 1.4
5/19 151,692 1.38
5/20 209,336 1.35
5/21 282,603 1.33
5/22 375,862 1.31
5/23 492,379 1.27
5/24 625,322 1.24
5/25 775,399 1.21
5/26 938,233 1.17
5/27 1,097,732 1.16
5/28 1,273,370 1.15
5/29 1,464,375 1.14
5/30 1,669,388 1.13
5/31 1,886,408 1.12
6/1 2,112,777 1.11

(snip for brevity - if the rate stays the same from this point until July 1)

6/15 9,107,000 1.11

7/1 48,366,316 1.11

Which is still nuts!!

Last Edited by jlazarus on 05/07/2009 06:46 PM
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein
Lemoning

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05/07/2009 06:49 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
The numbers seem relatively credible for the next week.

As I've said, I doubt they'll be many more deaths (I'm gonna flat out guess... 10 more), until the possible "second wave".

Last Edited by Lemoning on 05/07/2009 06:49 PM
Vincent D. Water
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05/07/2009 07:10 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.

99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP.

iamwith


really? how many predictions actually come true on here? a few every couple of years. the majority of people on here did believe that our country was gonna fall apart months ago. when that didn't happen all of you just switched to the next major scare. this virus.
it never ends with people on here. every few months it's a new thing and it eventually fads away. there aren't gonna be any mandatory shots, this isn't gonna turn into resident evil, and in 2 months this whole thing will have faded away and you nuts will be taking about the next scare that will bring the end of the world.....

allow me one more time iamwith


wow. another great argument dude. i love how the people on here think they know so freakin much but their arguments are smile faces holding signs......

i'm writing down your username and i'll be sure to talk to you in 2 months when this has all gone away.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 563380



You act like your being so sure is so different from others' being sure. Basically, your just a egocentric ass.

I bet you'll come back here and consider yourself right regardless of what happens. You'll be saying "See, you guys said it would be the death of the United states as we know it, and it only killed a measly 2.5% of the U.S. Population."

But you're sitting up on your high horse and saying that this virus which has been shown to be spreading at an exponential rate is just suddenly going to fizzle out based on your illogical assumption that 'people on GLP could never possibly be right, therefore, since they think that this deadly disease is a big deal, it CAN NOT BE.



Either A. In 1918 you would have been sitting there saying "you guys are all quacks, this virus will do NO HARM AT ALL"

or B. In early 1920 you would have looked back and said "see guys, it wasn't that big of a deal, it only infected a quarter of us and only killed a few million of us."

So which kind of idiot are you?

and wouldn't it be ironic if you were already incubating?
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2009 07:16 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
Still no islamic nations been hit............ !!!

stir
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 670454



That's not quite accurate...no majority-islamic nations have REPORTED novel H1N1 infection.
Lemoning

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05/07/2009 07:18 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.

99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP.

iamwith


really? how many predictions actually come true on here? a few every couple of years. the majority of people on here did believe that our country was gonna fall apart months ago. when that didn't happen all of you just switched to the next major scare. this virus.
it never ends with people on here. every few months it's a new thing and it eventually fads away. there aren't gonna be any mandatory shots, this isn't gonna turn into resident evil, and in 2 months this whole thing will have faded away and you nuts will be taking about the next scare that will bring the end of the world.....

allow me one more time iamwith


wow. another great argument dude. i love how the people on here think they know so freakin much but their arguments are smile faces holding signs......

i'm writing down your username and i'll be sure to talk to you in 2 months when this has all gone away.



You act like your being so sure is so different from others' being sure. Basically, your just a egocentric ass.

I bet you'll come back here and consider yourself right regardless of what happens. You'll be saying "See, you guys said it would be the death of the United states as we know it, and it only killed a measly 2.5% of the U.S. Population."

But you're sitting up on your high horse and saying that this virus which has been shown to be spreading at an exponential rate is just suddenly going to fizzle out based on your illogical assumption that 'people on GLP could never possibly be right, therefore, since they think that this deadly disease is a big deal, it CAN NOT BE.



Either A. In 1918 you would have been sitting there saying "you guys are all quacks, this virus will do NO HARM AT ALL"

or B. In early 1920 you would have looked back and said "see guys, it wasn't that big of a deal, it only infected a quarter of us and only killed a few million of us."

So which kind of idiot are you?

and wouldn't it be ironic if you were already incubating?
 Quoting: Vincent D. Water 673285


As I said, It'll be a few months at least until we have any idea of the full extent of this.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
Still no islamic nations been hit............ !!!

stir



That's not quite accurate...no majority-islamic nations have REPORTED novel H1N1 infection.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 633663


...forgot to add this...

no majority-islamic nations, ESPECIALLY nations in which thousands upon thousands of US troops are stationed, have reported novel H1N1 infection.

Carry on.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
Probably because O'Hare airport is one of the busiest airports in the world.

I agree and makes sense that plaes like Chicago, LA, Dallas, NY would have higher numbers based on what you just said.

The anomaly to that is Atlanta....Why is GA so low? Is it hotter there now and temps are affected the infectious rate?
 Quoting: jlazarus

It also has a lot to do with population density.

I'm still not seeing any widespread cases whatsoever.

If 10-50 million get infected by June-July then it's still REALLY bad. 100 million+ if this shit continues to spread insanely as time goes by, and if it's hard to contain because people do not know how to take care of personal hygiene.

Thats a good percentage of the US population.

If the temp in GA mattered at all, TX and CA wouldn't be having so many cases... but compare the immigration rate to Atlanta as opposed to San Diego, LA, or Houston. Not saying its directly related, but it matters.
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
The numbers seem relatively credible for the next week.

As I've said, I doubt they'll be many more deaths (I'm gonna flat out guess... 10 more), until the possible "second wave".
 Quoting: Lemoning

What is the percentage of those who died from this as opposed to actual reported cases? Very low.

We'll be safe, even if it spreads like wildfire so long as we have good reaction teams, and people know how to clean up after themselves, etc.
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 Quoting: OneAngryMom



Sorry, there is no financial bonanza in common sense. Just ask the pharmas and AMA. They need lots and lots of sick people who don't die but just take pills and roll up their sleeves for innoculations of crap to stay afloat.
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05/07/2009 07:42 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
NYC pop. density:

Population (July 1, 2007)[1]
- City 8,274,527
- Density 27,147/sq mi (10,482/km2)
- Urban 18,223,567
- Metro 18,815,988
- Demonym New Yorker

Atlanta is around 4,000/sq mi.
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
I forgot, also the flourided drinking water and filthy factory farming and food processors to strip the nutrition and add in garbage to the available "food".
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05/07/2009 08:27 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
Primary difference between older and younger people? Smallpox vaccine. Almost everyone over 38 got the vaccine as a child. They suspended rotuine childhood smallpox vaccination in 1972. So, almost everyone under 38 didn\'t get it.
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05/07/2009 08:28 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.

99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP.

iamwith


really? how many predictions actually come true on here? a few every couple of years. the majority of people on here did believe that our country was gonna fall apart months ago. when that didn't happen all of you just switched to the next major scare. this virus.
it never ends with people on here. every few months it's a new thing and it eventually fads away. there aren't gonna be any mandatory shots, this isn't gonna turn into resident evil, and in 2 months this whole thing will have faded away and you nuts will be taking about the next scare that will bring the end of the world.....

allow me one more time iamwith


wow. another great argument dude. i love how the people on here think they know so freakin much but their arguments are smile faces holding signs......

i'm writing down your username and i'll be sure to talk to you in 2 months when this has all gone away.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 563380


You think I'm not hoping that it will? If you honestly think that I want all this to go down this way, you are sadly mistaken. I don't like people saying not to worry when there's due cause to worry.
Anonymous Coward
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05/07/2009 08:39 PM
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Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.

99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 563380

4 trillion reasons it was postponed
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 Quoting: jlazarus


Your easily the smartest person I have come across on GLP.

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