| | | Page 1, 2, 3 | U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 673941
5/7/2009 8:39 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.
99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 563380
4 trillion reasons it was postponed |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 550094
5/7/2009 8:52 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Your easily the smartest person I have come across on GLP. |
| Lemoning
User ID: 674211
5/7/2009 8:55 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
The numbers seem relatively credible for the next week.
As I've said, I doubt they'll be many more deaths (I'm gonna flat out guess... 10 more), until the possible "second wave".
What is the percentage of those who died from this as opposed to actual reported cases? Very low.
We'll be safe, even if it spreads like wildfire so long as we have good reaction teams, and people know how to clean up after themselves, etc. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 432360
I'm talking about confirmed deaths, and yes you are right with the other point.
[link to cryogames.informe.com] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 674283
5/7/2009 8:56 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.
99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 563380
Op is not getting out here to make predictions based on metaphysical perceptions. Instead, he is using rudimentary mathematics - which is what WHO is using as well, plugging in their transmission-rate guesstinmates to make projections of possible case numbers. Is WHO a buncha wackos?..cuz they just guesstimated a possible 2 BILLION infected. Read that again, bud - 2 BILLION. [link to www.msnbc.msn.com] So, if you have problems understanding exponential growth equations, go dust off your algebra book - THEN go bitch at WHO - ever. |
| Capt'n Quaalude
User ID: 673258
5/7/2009 9:04 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
In regards to the graphs, I looked at the figures myself and damn, you're scary! I was looking for a major spike at the end of August myself. However, as someone pointed out to me just the other day, the world isn't in New York, it just feels like it.
While we are going into summer here, the southern hemisphere is going into winter. So, I hate to say this, but don't expect this to fizzle out. It could get bad fairly quickly and your projections, while sick, could turn out to be horribly right.
As for why no islamic countries are getting hit, I would like to point out that half of the islamic population keeps it's face covered at all times in public (ie, every woman) So if wearing face masks slows this thing down, then you already got half of the islamic population covered.
I find it a tad ironic that this archaic practice may have a practical side to it.
(oh my little desert flower, I only make you wear thirty pounds of cloth to cover every inch of skin to protect you from those deadly viruses the USA makes to kill us! And to make sure you don't expose your hair and tempt angels to come down from heaven and have sex with you. Which wouldn't be rape, because you'd be asking for it.)
Now Your Cooking with Mustard Gas!
-CQ |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 542524
5/7/2009 9:41 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
[ link to news.yahoo.com]
THURSDAY, May 7 (HealthDay News) -- The number of confirmed or suspected cases of swine flu in the United States was approaching 1,900, federal health officials said Thursday, with most new cases now caused by person-to-person transmission and not some link to Mexico, as was the case when the outbreak began nearly two weeks ago.
"Only about 10 percent of confirmed cases have a travel history for Mexico," which is believed to be the source of the outbreak, Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said during an afternoon teleconference. "This indicates ongoing transmission in communities. We would expect that as this [virus] travels more around the country that we are going to see that number go down. While there may have been introduction from travel to Mexico, the spread that's ongoing does not require travel to Mexico," he added.
Besser said there are now 1,823 probable and confirmed cases in 44 states, with most of the infections mild and leading to a quick recovery. The median age of hospitalized individuals with swine flu is 15.
He also said the CDC plans to stop concentrating on reporting numbers of cases and start concentrating on where flu activity is most pronounced in the country. "At some point reporting on individual cases no longer has value from a public health perspective, but knowing where in the country we are seeing large amounts of flu activity does remain important," he added.
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| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 660494
5/7/2009 9:44 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.
99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 563380
It's the GLP effect.
You have no idea how many catastrophes we've averted on behalf of mankind by absorbing all the doom.
 |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 670330
5/7/2009 10:01 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
jlazarus, nothing but respect, man.
I work in data for a living. I understand that you are just showing the trends based on the data available. That you were able to trend so closely is not bullshit--it's just math and stats. I don't get people.
Like you said, you're expecting the rate to fall soon. Let's pray it does and/or this thing stays mild. Looks like it's gonna grow through May, at least. Scary stuff, reality. |
| a passing cloud
User ID: 616505
5/7/2009 10:05 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
if pigeons start carrying infectious disease here in new york city, we're dead. you can't walk 50 feet without being near one, and they leave their germs everywhere. |
| ShaneCMuir
User ID: 611456
5/7/2009 10:17 PM
 | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
All this fear talk will only make things worse by scaring people into having a vaccination.
The vaccination will give you the flu.
The only way you can get an animal disease is by injecting animal tissue.
We need to keep track of the statistics of who has had a flu vaccination.. and then who gets sick from it.
If you want to stay healthy.. listen to a health expert.
Here is a radio interview with nutritionist Aajonus Vonderplanitz.
It is about 28MB.. right click, save to your computer and listen to it.
[link to trilogymedia.com.au]
Then you will have the inforamtion you need to get through this hoax. |
| jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 10:40 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Your easily the smartest person I have come across on GLP. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 550094
Not by a mile. But Thanks!
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
| Got Questions?
User ID: 671821
5/7/2009 10:42 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
But yeah, make no mistake. Unless the summer heat kills off the spread of the virus, we are looking at exponential growth.
Cheers. Quoting: DOOM WATCHER
I'm not sure the summer influence is about heat killing off the virus, at least not directly. I think the hypothesis that Vitamin D levels in the body are relevant might have some weight to it. In the summer, people get out in the sun much more than in the winter, so with that extra UV-B exposure, their Vit. D levels naturally go much higher than in the winter.
It seems most people are often noticeably Vit. D deficient, especially in winter. Low fatty fish in the diets, plus too-low Vit. D fortification lvls. in other foods seems to contribute to the deficiencies.
There is evidence that Vit. D supplementation can help ward off all kinds of flus. I have begun supplementing since day 1 in the US. I take 5000iu/day, and some doctors have recommended children take no more than 2000iu/day. There is a study that has shown 10,000iu/day for adults is fine. I'm not a doctor and cannot give medical advice, so do your own research.
You can thank UD for the above wisdom.
Peace.
[link to healthnews.benabraham.com]
[link to www.rejuvenation-science.com]
[link to www.associatedcontent.com] |
| jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 10:43 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
jlazarus, nothing but respect, man.
I work in data for a living. I understand that you are just showing the trends based on the data available. That you were able to trend so closely is not bullshit--it's just math and stats. I don't get people.
Like you said, you're expecting the rate to fall soon. Let's pray it does and/or this thing stays mild. Looks like it's gonna grow through May, at least. Scary stuff, reality. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 670330
Thank you for getting it. I have no doubt it will drop, the big variable is 'when' will it drop. If it's next week, things might look great going into summer heat (at least for the northern hem).
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
| jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 10:45 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
I'm not sure the summer influence is about heat killing off the virus, at least not directly. I think the hypothesis that Vitamin D levels in the body are relevant might have some weight to it. In the summer, people get out in the sun much more than in the winter, so with that extra UV-B exposure, their Vit. D levels naturally go much higher than in the winter.
It seems most people are often noticeably Vit. D deficient, especially in winter. Low fatty fish in the diets, plus too-low Vit. D fortification lvls. in other foods seems to contribute to the deficiencies.
There is evidence that Vit. D supplementation can help ward off all kinds of flus. I have begun supplementing since day 1 in the US. I take 5000iu/day, and some doctors have recommended children take no more than 2000iu/day. There is a study that has shown 10,000iu/day for adults is fine. I'm not a doctor and cannot give medical advice, so do your own research.
You can thank UD for the above wisdom.
Peace. Quoting: Got Questions? 671821
Vit D is a big factor, yes, but also heat kills the virus living on surfaces - less surfaces that it's on reduces rate of infection.
Vit D may be a bigger factor though. I don't really know! :)
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
| jlazarus
User ID: 348904
5/7/2009 10:52 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
It's the GLP effect.
You have no idea how many catastrophes we've averted on behalf of mankind by absorbing all the doom.
Quote of the day. Love it!
I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. ~ Robert Heinlein |
| Got Questions?
User ID: 671821
5/7/2009 11:18 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Although it's true that heat kills A/H1N1, the CDC says it takes at least (167-212°F [75-100°C]) to do so. So summer heat is not hot enough to directly kill the virus.
They also say that the virus can live outside the body for 2-8 hours, although I'm hearing other numbers elsewhere, before it dies.
I think the biggest factor for its persistence outside the body may be the moisture medium it's living in while outside the body. I suspect the longer the moisture endures on a surface, the greater it's chances of prolonged survival in that moisture. If that proves true, then perhaps a hot tropical humid area will allow for greater persistence than say a hot desert dry area, which will evaporate that moisture rather quickly. Once the moisture is gone, I think the virus dehydrates and is toast.
[link to www.cdc.gov] |
| ThohT.org
User ID: 571826
5/8/2009 12:44 AM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
keep in mind the CDC is not confirming at the same rate they used to.
Not only do they no longer consider it important (they say) but the more samples they have the less they're able to confirm (percentage-wise).
The CDC in Atlanta can process about 100 samples per day. Labs around the world are helping out, but it's not that many.
So there should be a projection based on this.
Think about this:
If the CDC suddenly received 500,000 samples, 10% of which were infected with swine flu then the number "confirmed" cased would increase at the same rate as it had the week prior, unless they increased their capacity to test samples. Simply because they can only test ~100/day |
| Got Questions?
User ID: 671821
5/8/2009 1:30 AM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Right, they are limited by their analysis capacity. And as more labs come online, that capacity will rise somewhat.
But if they stop reporting individual cases to the public, how will we track and project the trends from that point forward? I suspect they will still track individual cases, but will stop releasing the data to the public.
Perhaps other organizations within individual states and counties will continue to publish data for their own areas.
Hopefully, they'll still publish data for "hot spots" they are focusing on, so that we can have a clue to get out of those areas if necessary. I suspect the news will be all over those hot spots reporting anyway. |
| Lemoning
User ID: 674534
5/8/2009 7:57 AM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
keep in mind the CDC is not confirming at the same rate they used to.
Not only do they no longer consider it important (they say) but the more samples they have the less they're able to confirm (percentage-wise).
The CDC in Atlanta can process about 100 samples per day. Labs around the world are helping out, but it's not that many.
So there should be a projection based on this.
Think about this:
If the CDC suddenly received 500,000 samples, 10% of which were infected with swine flu then the number "confirmed" cased would increase at the same rate as it had the week prior, unless they increased their capacity to test samples. Simply because they can only test ~100/day Quoting: ThohT.org 571826
This is also a good point.
[link to cryogames.informe.com] |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 533714
5/9/2009 12:17 AM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
How is this not pinned? for the graphs, this thing is proving itself true day by day. if it keeps going we'll go level six in a couple of weeks. |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 533714
5/9/2009 6:35 PM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
 |
| Anonymous Coward
User ID: 170917
5/12/2009 10:41 AM | | Re: U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track | Quote |
Next week's graph looks insane. So hopefully summer heat will kill this thing off quickly!
post next weeks graph man!
Here they are...They are also in the the original post from last week (just to show the time I made these was last Friday):
[ link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Here are the graphs - but please understand, just as I said last week, these have GOT to be wrong...because..well, they are just too insane, and because the exponential factor SHOULD drop down as summer heat hits.
:may14:
:may28:
woa
they are not wrong and you know it
that's exponential growth
where are we today in numbers and how does it compare to this projected graph, but can we really rely upon the CDC to be forthright about their true numbers anyway?
where can I get today's reported number of cases |
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