U.S. Swine Flu Count Nears 1,900; Person-to-Person Transmission Now Common, Trend on Track

These are the data points for 5-8 5-14

5/8 3,023 1.55
5/9 4,686 1.55
5/10 7,263 1.55
5/11 11,257 1.55
5/12 17,449 1.55
5/13 27,046 1.55
5/14 41,922 1.55


Surely, sometime around the 11th, that rate will drop. Can it hold it that long?

Would you please create the graphs through July 1?

whats the June chart prediction?

That's how I know these have to be off a bit. By June, those numbers just are not believable.

I posted the data points so that others could figure the numbers as well. If you do that, you will see that something has to change - my guess is Summer Heat, combined with only a partial population getting infected due to age!

What worries me is the young people. I have a 19 yo, an 18 yo and a 16 yo. Blah!

Would you please create the graphs through July 1?



Well, I don't have access to my graphic program right now so saving the graph into a jpeg isn't possible right this moment.

Also, the numbers get so out of whack by July 1 they just are not credible.

I don't think these are predictions of reality, but potential. And let's hope potential is nipped in the bud!

[link to www.cdc.gov]

on the above map it shows 204 infected in Ill. Anyone have news on why so infected there?

Still no islamic nations been hit............ !!!

What makes them not credible - because they are hard to believe? Unbelievable does not mean impossible.

Probably because O'Hare airport is one of the busiest airports in the world.

What makes them not credible - because they are hard to believe? Unbelievable does not mean impossible.

Can't post the graph but I can post the numbers. Yes, they are not credible because...well frankly, the numbers surpass the population...(of the U.S. - remember, these numbers were based on U.S. cases - not world cases. On the 1st, Wraithwynd did a similar trend using the World Numbers - his numbers began getting out of whack around the same time. I 'll see if I can find his thread. I think MOI posted it somewhere...)

5/29 25,116,989 1.55
5/30 38,931,333 1.55
5/31 60,343,566 1.55
6/1 93,532,528 1.55
6/2 144,975,418 1.55
6/3 224,711,898 1.55
6/4 348,303,443 1.55

I have for the most part agreed with your posts on the subject, however, I think that the R0 you are using is too aggressive.

I believe the actual R0 to be somewhere between 1.2-1.28.

Not 1.55

That said, the numbers will still be similar, just the time scale will be a little different. 1.2 is still exponential growth.

I believe we will see something approaching 750,000 - 1,000,000 confirmed cases by the beginning of June - and that we will see the numbers you came up with of 16million by 5/30, pushed back until the middle/later half of June.

But yeah, make no mistake. Unless the summer heat kills off the spread of the virus, we are looking at exponential growth.

Cheers.

Would you please create the graphs through July 1?



Well, I don't have access to my graphic program right now so saving the graph into a jpeg isn't possible right this moment.

Also, the numbers get so out of whack by July 1 they just are not credible.

I don't think these are predictions of reality, but potential. And let's hope potential is nipped in the bud!


Sorry, I was typing my prior post when you posted this.

What makes them not credible - because they are hard to believe? Unbelievable does not mean impossible.

In the news now: 4 confirmed cases in Brazil, so it´s spreading south either...in contradiction to those who said that it was a north american flu

That said, the numbers will still be similar, just the time scale will be a little different. 1.2 is still exponential growth.
Cheers.

lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.

99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP.




really? how many predictions actually come true on here? a few every couple of years. the majority of people on here did believe that our country was gonna fall apart months ago. when that didn't happen all of you just switched to the next major scare. this virus.
it never ends with people on here. every few months it's a new thing and it eventually fads away. there aren't gonna be any mandatory shots, this isn't gonna turn into resident evil, and in 2 months this whole thing will have faded away and you nuts will be taking about the next scare that will bring the end of the world.....

allow me one more time


wow. another great argument dude. i love how the people on here think they know so freakin much but their arguments are smile faces holding signs......

i'm writing down your username and i'll be sure to talk to you in 2 months when this has all gone away.

Still no islamic nations been hit............ !!!

lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.

99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP.




really? how many predictions actually come true on here? a few every couple of years. the majority of people on here did believe that our country was gonna fall apart months ago. when that didn't happen all of you just switched to the next major scare. this virus.
it never ends with people on here. every few months it's a new thing and it eventually fads away. there aren't gonna be any mandatory shots, this isn't gonna turn into resident evil, and in 2 months this whole thing will have faded away and you nuts will be taking about the next scare that will bring the end of the world.....

allow me one more time


wow. another great argument dude. i love how the people on here think they know so freakin much but their arguments are smile faces holding signs......

i'm writing down your username and i'll be sure to talk to you in 2 months when this has all gone away.



You act like your being so sure is so different from others' being sure. Basically, your just a egocentric ass.

I bet you'll come back here and consider yourself right regardless of what happens. You'll be saying "See, you guys said it would be the death of the United states as we know it, and it only killed a measly 2.5% of the U.S. Population."

But you're sitting up on your high horse and saying that this virus which has been shown to be spreading at an exponential rate is just suddenly going to fizzle out based on your illogical assumption that 'people on GLP could never possibly be right, therefore, since they think that this deadly disease is a big deal, it CAN NOT BE.



Either A. In 1918 you would have been sitting there saying "you guys are all quacks, this virus will do NO HARM AT ALL"

or B. In early 1920 you would have looked back and said "see guys, it wasn't that big of a deal, it only infected a quarter of us and only killed a few million of us."

So which kind of idiot are you?

and wouldn't it be ironic if you were already incubating?

Still no islamic nations been hit............ !!!





That's not quite accurate...no majority-islamic nations have REPORTED novel H1N1 infection.

Probably because O'Hare airport is one of the busiest airports in the world.

I agree and makes sense that plaes like Chicago, LA, Dallas, NY would have higher numbers based on what you just said.

The anomaly to that is Atlanta....Why is GA so low? Is it hotter there now and temps are affected the infectious rate?

The numbers seem relatively credible for the next week.

As I've said, I doubt they'll be many more deaths (I'm gonna flat out guess... 10 more), until the possible "second wave".

Thread: PRACTICAL things you CAN do to protect yourself and your family from this Flu...

I think the above thread is relevant....

lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.

99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP.




really? how many predictions actually come true on here? a few every couple of years. the majority of people on here did believe that our country was gonna fall apart months ago. when that didn't happen all of you just switched to the next major scare. this virus.
it never ends with people on here. every few months it's a new thing and it eventually fads away. there aren't gonna be any mandatory shots, this isn't gonna turn into resident evil, and in 2 months this whole thing will have faded away and you nuts will be taking about the next scare that will bring the end of the world.....

allow me one more time


wow. another great argument dude. i love how the people on here think they know so freakin much but their arguments are smile faces holding signs......

i'm writing down your username and i'll be sure to talk to you in 2 months when this has all gone away.

lol. wtf is with these graphs? you randomly predict insane growth numbers each day? what are you basing this on? all of you thought the U.S. would be on lockdown by now so i find it hard to believe that you are buying this shit.

99% of GLP said that the U.S. was gonna fall apart b/c of the financial crisis by March. like usual, those predictions failed. you guys complain that the media blows things out of proportion and freaks people out. by NOBODY does that more then the people of GLP.