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RECESSION IS OVER...
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725634
7/14/2009 4:58 PM
Report abusive post | RECESSION IS OVER...
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725104
7/14/2009 5:09 PM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725104
7/14/2009 5:09 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Jul 14, 2009 | Updated: 2:57 p.m. ET Jul 14, 2009
Could our long national nightmare be over? The economic contraction, this Great Recession, began in December 2007, and there's no apparent end in sight. As the unemployment rate has spiked, analysts have thrown cold water on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's March sighting of "green shoots." The stock market's spring rally has fizzled.
But in this season of doubt, I'm prepared to declare that the recession is really, most probably over. Why? Well, it's not because the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal believe it'll end in this quarter. (These guys wouldn't know an economic inflection point if it hit them upside the head. All through 2008, when the economy was contracting, they projected growth for the year.) No, two of the best and most objective forecasters, who are not connected to investment banks or to the CNBC noise machine, have recently called the upturn. Macroeconomic Advisers, the St. Louis-based consulting firm that compiles a monthly GDP index, reported to its clients Monday that while second-quarter GDP was tracking at negative 0.1 percent (recession), the third quarter was tracking at 2.4 percent growth.
The folks at the Economic Cycles Research Institute agree enthusiastically. It's not because they've detected green pea shoots in Central Park. Rather, it's because we've seen the three P's, says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, which has been studying business cycles for decades and was one of the few outfits to call the last two recessions with any degree of accuracy.
Click here to find out more!
The economic data that get the most play in the news—unemployment, retail sales—are coincident or lagging indicators and historically have not revealed much about directional changes in the economy. ECRI's proprietary methodology breaks down indicators into a long-leading index, a weekly leading index, and a short-leading index. "We watch for turning points in the leading indexes to anticipate turning points in the business cycle and the overall economy," says Achuthan. It's tough to recognize transitions objectively "because so often our hopes and fears can get in the way." To prevent exuberance and despair from clouding vision, ECRI looks for the three P's: a pronounced rise in the leading indicators; one that persists for at least three months; and one that's pervasive, meaning a majority of indicators are moving in the same direction.
The long-leading index—which goes back to the 1920s and doesn't include stock prices but does include measures related to credit, housing, productivity, and profits—hits bottom and starts to climb about six months before a recession ends. The weekly leading index calls directional shifts about three to four months in advance. And the short-leading index, which includes stock prices and jobless claims, is typically the last to turn up.
All three are now flashing green. According to Achuthan, the long-leading index growth rate has been recovering since November 2008, the weekly leading index has been recovering since last December, and the short-leading index growth rate bottomed in February 2009. In sequence, each turned up, "and by April the three Ps had all been satisfied." Sure, corporate profits continue to disappoint, and the unemployment rate is climbing. But for ECRI, which navigates by relying exclusively on its instruments, that's only a part of their picture. They're the Spocks of the economic forecasting crowd—unemotional, uninvested in anything but the logic of what history and their dashboard tell them. "From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks," says Achuthan. "The recession is ending somewhere this summer." In fact, it may already be over.
There's plenty of ground for skepticism, in part because the news flow is still quite negative, especially when it comes to corporate profits. ECRI's response? "Indicators are typically judged by their freshness, not their prescience. Since most market-moving numbers are coincident to short leaning, while corporate guidance is often lagging, it is no surprise that analysts do not discern any convincing evidence of an economic upturn."
Still, Achuthan warns that one of the most important indicators—employment—isn't showing recovery yet. The reason: The combination of deleveraging and the long-term decline of manufacturing is hindering job creation and destroying existing jobs. After the last recession ended in 2001, the service sector created jobs, but payroll employment continued to fall through 2003 because millions of jobs were lost in the manufacturing sector during the expansion. "We may see some echo of that in this recovery." But while employment is vital, payroll jobs growth alone doesn't make the difference between recession and expansion.
"We've always felt that employment is very important, but it's a roughly coincident indicator," said Achuthan. "We would not expect the employment indicators to be mirroring anything we're seeing in the leading indicators." ECRI notes that job losses and unemployment claims are off their worst levels. "If we're right and the recession is over, the job market should improve by year's end."
Of course, improvement doesn't mean the sort of 1990s-vintage broad-based employment growth that boosts wages and expands benefits coverage. And without the tailwind of cheap money and a housing boom, it's difficult to see—as it always is at the beginning of expansions—what is going to produce large-scale jobs growth.
The recession is over! Let the jobless recovery begin!
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 708940
7/14/2009 5:09 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Yep, The recession is over.....
Now the depression will begin. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725634 (OP)
7/14/2009 5:10 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
FUCK DOOM
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725634 (OP)
7/14/2009 5:11 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Yep, The recession is over.....
Now the depression will begin. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 708940
In your doom filled dreams PUNK  |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 639785
7/14/2009 5:12 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
 stop posting childish crap , grow up or leave GLP |
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aznwarlord
User ID: 706876
7/14/2009 5:13 PM
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is the 2 trillion dollars of budget gap coming out of your ass?
“I am against religion because it teaches us to be satisfied without understanding the world.”
– Richard Dawkins |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725634 (OP)
7/14/2009 5:14 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
stop posting childish crap , grow up or leave GLP
Are you joking? LMAO |
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genes of Isis
User ID: 471791
7/14/2009 5:14 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
kidding or not, ill say this as many times as i feel necessary. we have not seen anything yet. by late 2011, .. you will see. this is just the beginning.
"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear."
— George Orwell |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725634 (OP)
7/14/2009 5:14 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
is the 2 trillion dollars of budget gap coming out of your ass? Quoting: aznwarlord
Read the article dipshit... |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725634 (OP)
7/14/2009 5:16 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
kidding or not, ill say this as many times as i feel necessary. we have not seen anything yet. by late 2011, .. you will see. this is just the beginning. Quoting: genes of Isis
Whatever... your doom never materializes...
We are in a recession... it is over/ending...
Deal with the real world doom freaks...
We have had many recessions and even the great depression before... this is 2009 not the 1920s...
enjoy your doom... MY LIFE ROCKS... cause I do not focus on DOOM and B.S.
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725634 (OP)
7/14/2009 5:16 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 37525
7/14/2009 5:20 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 725634
The teleprompter told you, right? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 726141
7/15/2009 11:32 AM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 554503
7/15/2009 11:43 AM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Why don't you ask refugee if the recession is over? |
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Nailer45
User ID: 724920
7/15/2009 11:44 AM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 725634
recession has been over for sometime as the depression took its place. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725825
7/15/2009 11:45 AM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 428255
7/15/2009 11:47 AM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 703130
7/15/2009 1:54 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Great news! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 703130
7/15/2009 1:55 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Great news! uhh I forgot, sorry:
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 725405
7/15/2009 1:57 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Yeah party time folks
3 cheers for Obama heroic job
at fixing the economy
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Pheenix11
User ID: 665901
7/15/2009 2:00 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Anyone who believes this bullshit deserves the ass raping that is coming. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 721556
7/15/2009 2:06 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Above poster is correct. Recession over, depression has started. ALT-A's and ARMs to reset by the hundreds of thousands, leading to more foreclosures. California bankrupt, MI, IL, NY, NV, and many others right behind.
Commercial real estate market collapsing. S&P profits fell off a cliff. U6 at something like 17%. Thousands of college students won't be able to go back to school because state aid is drying up and CITI on verge of collapse.
Oh Yeah! The recession's over!! |
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<<<FOCUS>>>
User ID: 660580
7/15/2009 2:13 PM
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OP, do you really believe that?
If so, you are deluding yourself |
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1-2-Follow
User ID: 726229
7/15/2009 2:14 PM
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OP, do you really believe that?
If so, you are deluding yourself Quoting: <<<FOCUS>>>
when are you gonna step into reality and realize doom is only on this forum???
Last Edited by 1-2-Follow on 7/15/2009 at 2:14 PM
"As of 10:18 a.m. EST, on the 23rd day of July, I officially declare this the day your DOW DOOM died. 9000 has just been breached." - the 1-2
Truth is schilling in the empire of retards.
"Yep but for now we dub you toast guy." - AC520845 |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 709018
7/15/2009 2:15 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Lol, it was over a while ago; it's been a depression for some time. |
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george_glass
User ID: 663051
7/15/2009 2:16 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
lmao!
sure it is....
because one stupid fuck says so?
sure it is....
need i remind the dipshit, cocksucking, ignorant as fuck op that they have been saying "the recession is over" since last october before they even admitted we were in a recession to begin with?
then when they admitted it, they said we have been in one for a year.
yeah, id really believe anything these people say.
fucking idiots.
Man created gods in HIS image. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 389464
7/15/2009 2:19 PM | | Re: RECESSION IS OVER... | Quote |
Yes!!! Obama has done it!
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1-2-Follow
User ID: 726229
7/15/2009 2:20 PM
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lmao!
sure it is....
because one stupid fuck says so?
sure it is....
need i remind the dipshit, cocksucking, ignorant as fuck op that they have been saying "the recession is over" since last october before they even admitted we were in a recession to begin with?
then when they admitted it, they said we have been in one for a year.
yeah, id really believe anything these people say.
fucking idiots. Quoting: george_glass
2 stupid fucks, you stupid fuck.
"As of 10:18 a.m. EST, on the 23rd day of July, I officially declare this the day your DOW DOOM died. 9000 has just been breached." - the 1-2
Truth is schilling in the empire of retards.
"Yep but for now we dub you toast guy." - AC520845 |
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Jomama
User ID: 724655
7/15/2009 2:20 PM | |
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