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Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed

 
amateurs just sail on
User ID: 783851
United States
10/01/2009 11:45 PM
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Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
No retards please. That may be a lot to ask but if you have no idea just admit it and move on. Better yet just move on and don't leave a retarded message.

If you estimate the probability of an event happening at 40 percent, and the event could occur on any one of six date pairs if it is going to occur at all, then what is the probability of the event happening on any one of the six date pairs? Is the answer 6.666% ? If the first date pair passes and the event doesn't happen is the probability still 6.666 for the next pair?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 647422
United States
10/01/2009 11:50 PM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
Yes to both.

You seem to know what you're doing, it doesn't take genius.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 783923
Canada
10/01/2009 11:58 PM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
Yes to both.

You seem to know what you're doing, it doesn't take genius.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 647422

The answer would most definitaly be "Thrice."
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 783851
United States
10/02/2009 12:04 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
Yes to both.

You seem to know what you're doing, it doesn't take genius.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 647422


I was concerned about the first date pair passing, leaving only 5 remaining date pairs.If the probability is 40 percent that the event will happen overall, then the probability is still 40 percent but you only have 5 date pairs left.

So are you sure about that??
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 783851
United States
10/02/2009 12:05 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
Yes to both.

You seem to know what you're doing, it doesn't take genius.

The answer would most definitaly be "Thrice."
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 783923


yeah except you can't spell definitely so I don't believe anything you say. Read what I said about retards. This is a retard free zone.
cartaphilus

User ID: 784388
China
10/02/2009 12:09 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
though it is correct, the question of this answer has no predicates hence the answer obtained has no sense of reality. you just add another pairs of date,the answer shall change as expected unconditionally. then you see,the points you get from the answer do not need to fit into reality. what you really need is not a genius but a guy who is down to the earth style.
Idol1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 647422
United States
10/02/2009 12:10 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
Yes to both.

You seem to know what you're doing, it doesn't take genius.


I was concerned about the first date pair passing, leaving only 5 remaining date pairs.If the probability is 40 percent that the event will happen overall, then the probability is still 40 percent but you only have 5 date pairs left.

So are you sure about that??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 783851

Pretty sure. If the prob of the event ever happening is only 40%, and you say there are only six possible dates it can happen, then the passing of one date doesn't change the prob for the other 5 dates.

I would suggest that the prob would no longer be 40% after the 1st date passes, but would be 33.33%, but you say that's not the case, so...
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 783851
United States
10/02/2009 12:15 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
Yes to both.

You seem to know what you're doing, it doesn't take genius.


I was concerned about the first date pair passing, leaving only 5 remaining date pairs.If the probability is 40 percent that the event will happen overall, then the probability is still 40 percent but you only have 5 date pairs left.

So are you sure about that??

Pretty sure. If the prob of the event ever happening is only 40%, and you say there are only six possible dates it can happen, then the passing of one date doesn't change the prob for the other 5 dates.

I would suggest that the prob would no longer be 40% after the 1st date passes, but would be 33.33%, but you say that's not the case, so...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 647422


I am thinking the answer is going to depend on exactly what the original assumption is. If the assumption is that the probability is 40 percent that the event will happen overall, but it can only happen on one of those six date pairs, then lets say 5 date pairs pass, and only one remains. Could it be possible that the last date pair now has a 40 percent chance of the event ?
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 783851
United States
10/02/2009 12:16 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
though it is correct, the question of this answer has no predicates hence the answer obtained has no sense of reality. you just add another pairs of date,the answer shall change as expected unconditionally. then you see,the points you get from the answer do not need to fit into reality. what you really need is not a genius but a guy who is down to the earth style.
Idol1
 Quoting: cartaphilus


FAIL
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 784375
United States
10/02/2009 12:18 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
I am a retard, and I feel discriminated against verysad
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 647422
United States
10/02/2009 12:19 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
I am thinking the answer is going to depend on exactly what the original assumption is.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 783851


Until you settle that, the question can't be answered.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 783851
United States
10/02/2009 12:20 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
I am a retard, and I feel discriminated against verysad
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 784375


Whatever. At least you can spell.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 783851
United States
10/02/2009 12:23 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
I am thinking the answer is going to depend on exactly what the original assumption is.


Until you settle that, the question can't be answered.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 647422


Ok; well lets say the assumption is that the event has a 40 percent chance of happening and even until the last second of the last date pair there is still a 40 percent chance it could happen and then after it there is zero chance.Then how do the six date pair probabilities go?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 784375
United States
10/02/2009 12:28 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
I am a retard, and I feel discriminated against verysad


Whatever. At least you can spell.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 783851



Thank you for noticing my humble endeavors.... ura
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 783851
United States
10/02/2009 12:35 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
I am a retard, and I feel discriminated against verysad


Whatever. At least you can spell.



Thank you for noticing my humble endeavors.... ura
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 784375


then endeavor to answer my question instead of thinking up five dollar words or sail on. This is a serious question and unfortunately there is no time for chit chat.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 784423
United States
10/02/2009 01:00 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
On the first of six possible dates 6.66%
With 5 dates left 8%, then 10%, 13.33%, 20%, and the last possibility 40%
Scuba Steve

User ID: 763460
United States
10/02/2009 04:36 AM
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Re: Genius (or at least statistics expert) needed
No retards please. That may be a lot to ask but if you have no idea just admit it and move on. Better yet just move on and don't leave a retarded message.

If you estimate the probability of an event happening at 40 percent, and the event could occur on any one of six date pairs if it is going to occur at all, then what is the probability of the event happening on any one of the six date pairs? Is the answer 6.666% ? If the first date pair passes and the event doesn't happen is the probability still 6.666 for the next pair?
 Quoting: amateurs just sail on 783851


Uh no, for every day that passes you must divide 40% by how many days are left.

First day passes its 8%

second day its 10%

so and and so forth

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