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ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17
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Intruth
User ID: 586863
10/10/2009 8:35 PM
 | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
No, I don't think those in the know would alert the general public if a super volcano were about to erupt
Is toba bigger than Yellowstone? Quoting: Trayen11
Probably a better Question is Toba and Yellowstone antipodal? |
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CRYSTAL in MATRIX
User ID: 501458
10/10/2009 8:38 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Didn't they both erupt 70,000 or so years ago? |
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Bonnie
User ID: 776717
10/10/2009 8:57 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
No, I don't think those in the know would alert the general public if a super volcano were about to erupt
Is toba bigger than Yellowstone?
Probably a better Question is Toba and Yellowstone antipodal? Quoting: Intruth
No, they aren't. Here's a link to an "Antipodal Map"
[link to www.antipodemap.com] |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 791241
10/10/2009 9:04 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Interesting thread |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 702728
10/10/2009 9:30 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Toba errupted 70,000 years ago.. before that it errupted 800,000 years ago.. It can not errupt this soon.. and even if it does it will probably be 1/10th as powerful as the previous erruption.. becasue very little of the magma will be erruptible. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 789588
10/11/2009 5:15 AM | |
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 790533
10/11/2009 5:25 AM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
It doesn't take a genius to see that there are definately heavily increasing amounts of seismic activity.
Likely magnetic constriction from moving alignment with galactic center. Who knows?
I do imagine that having a north pole that is now in siberia along with the planetary core's desire to switch magnetic north south polarity may have something to do with it as well.
What does it all mean, Basil? |
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ºCRAPº
User ID: 728223
10/11/2009 7:06 AM
 | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Toba errupted 70,000 years ago.. before that it errupted 800,000 years ago.. It can not errupt this soon.. and even if it does it will probably be 1/10th as powerful as the previous erruption.. becasue very little of the magma will be erruptible. Quoting: 702728
In a perfect world under perfect conditions you would be correct. However, there are so many factors involved. If eruptions were that cyclic, we would have accurate volcanic prediction tables.
Fact is they can erupt just as powerful in a fraction of time it may have rested prior to. They can also lay dormant for 10x's there last rest and erupt at 1/50th the power.
Those who give up a little freedom for a little security deserve neither and lose both. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 375286
10/11/2009 7:10 AM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Those are not harmonic tremors.
They are recordings of distant earthquakes. When the waves reach the seismographs, they look different than a seismograph that's right on top of the quake would.
Everyone swore that those same waves at Yellowstone were harmonic tremors in January. They were wrong. And so are you.
Just want to point out you could be a little nicer.
How about something to back up your statement with actual facts other than "they were wrong". If you have knowledge about why they are not harmonic tremors please educate us why. I would be more than willing to learn.
Thanks. Quoting: Smilin' Irish Eyes
Pwned! lol. I dought he has the mental capacity to be able to back his statements up with facts. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 791441
10/11/2009 7:11 AM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
No, I don't think those in the know would alert the general public if a super volcano were about to erupt
Is toba bigger than Yellowstone?
Probably a better Question is Toba and Yellowstone antipodal?
No, they aren't. Here's a link to an "Antipodal Map"
[ link to www.antipodemap.com]
interestingly though, the antipodes of BOTH are right on plate boundaries. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 791441
10/11/2009 7:12 AM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Toba errupted 70,000 years ago.. before that it errupted 800,000 years ago.. It can not errupt this soon.. and even if it does it will probably be 1/10th as powerful as the previous erruption.. becasue very little of the magma will be erruptible. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 702728
one tenth of the previous eruption will have rats nibbling at YOUR bones within a year of this 'small' eruption mate.
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ºCRAPº
User ID: 728223
10/11/2009 8:00 AM
| | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
And on the statement concerning harmonic tremors,
Even trained geologist and seismologists can overlook what appears to be an earthquake when in reality it is a harmonic tremor.
A general rule of thumb is to visually look at the dynamics of the wave. Also, harmonic waves tend to keep a more consistent frequency where standard earthquakes are chaotic in frequencies.
Basic rule for casual observation: If the ramp up is equal to or less then the peak and if the ramp up is as long as the ramp down, it is most likely a harmonic tremor.
Earthquakes have a strong ramp up from the release of tension peaking much higher then the mid-point of the entire wave length.
There are more advanced methods for determining harmonic waves versus standard earthquakes but I do not have the knowledge or equipment to determine. As it stands, I viewed harmonic tremors in the area.
In fact, Geologist misunderstood several earthquakes a bit after the 2004 tsunami as regular quakes when viewed later, they were harmonic tremors.
Those who give up a little freedom for a little security deserve neither and lose both. |
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ºCRAPº
User ID: 728223
10/11/2009 8:07 AM
| | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
[link to www.indiadaily.com]
Around Toba, increasing harmonic tremors have started after the Tsunami two years back.
[link to www.Gas_oven.com]
According to computer models, somewhere near Toba, along the fault line there may be another super volcano getting ready for eruption. 3.1 mile sinking of Indo-Australian plate under the Eurasian Plate in the last 74,000 years has created enough magma for a super volcano.
The recent series of volcanoes in that area have increased the level of alarm.
Some of the quakes mistaken as aftershocks were harmonic tremors signifying lava movements. If Toba, or along Toba, the volcanic eruption take place, it can bring the human civilization to its knees.
Even though the article and news was in 2005, that is a blink in time for a Super Volcano. Toba is still building up be sure of that. It is a question if all these earthquakes either hastened Tobas eruption or are they signals of an imminent eruption. Unfortunately, scientist don't have those answers as we never recorded a super volcanic eruption in all of mankinds recorded history.
Those who give up a little freedom for a little security deserve neither and lose both. |
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Ice
User ID: 729060
10/11/2009 9:09 AM
 | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Vanuatu - 7 hits in less than 30 hrs all plus 5 mag
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP
MAP 5.6 2009/10/11 04:47:47 -13.037 166.152 10.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.9 2009/10/10 19:41:24 -15.643 -173.232 10.0 TONGA
MAP 5.1 2009/10/10 16 08 -14.322 166.397 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.3 2009/10/10 15:35:00 -14.133 166.536 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.2 2009/10/10 14:36:35 -14.170 166.285 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.8 2009/10/10 14:25:18 -14.220 166.665 48.1 VANUATU
MAP 5.3 2009/10/10 11 11 -13.723 166.417 10.0 VANUATU
You have until 2016 to get your Act together! Be Wise! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 734630
10/11/2009 12:24 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 791602
10/11/2009 12:25 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Vanuatu - 7 hits in less than 30 hrs all plus 5 mag
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP
MAP 5.6 2009/10/11 04:47:47 -13.037 166.152 10.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.9 2009/10/10 19:41:24 -15.643 -173.232 10.0 TONGA
MAP 5.1 2009/10/10 16:49:08 -14.322 166.397 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.3 2009/10/10 15:35:00 -14.133 166.536 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.2 2009/10/10 14:36:35 -14.170 166.285 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.8 2009/10/10 14:25:18 -14.220 166.665 48.1 VANUATU
MAP 5.3 2009/10/10 11 11 -13.723 166.417 10.0 VANUATU
i love these random emoticons.
they just sum it all up SO perfectly.
 |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 791602
10/11/2009 12:26 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Vanuatu - 7 hits in less than 30 hrs all plus 5 mag
MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP
MAP 5.6 2009/10/11 04:47:47 -13.037 166.152 10.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.9 2009/10/10 19:41:24 -15.643 -173.232 10.0 TONGA
MAP 5.1 2009/10/10 16:49:08 -14.322 166.397 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.3 2009/10/10 15:35:00 -14.133 166.536 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.2 2009/10/10 14:36:35 -14.170 166.285 35.0 VANUATU
MAP 5.8 2009/10/10 14:25:18 -14.220 166.665 48.1 VANUATU
MAP 5.3 2009/10/10 11 11 -13.723 166.417 10.0 VANUATU
i love these random emoticons.
they just sum it all up SO perfectly.
I'm talking about the animated one above BTW! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 702728
10/11/2009 3:34 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
how are the vanatu earthquakes related to Toba.. they are geographically much further away and are due to tectonic plates.. the one close to philipines I can understand but not Vanatu |
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ADEND
User ID: 758549
10/11/2009 5:40 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
No, I don't think those in the know would alert the general public if a super volcano were about to erupt Quoting: Anonymous Coward 323774
I have to agree. I think the most they would do is move some assets to a safer place, like repositioning subs and carrier groups to a part of the world that would be more protected. |
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Bonnie
User ID: 776717
10/11/2009 8:05 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
They have already put a shadow government in place, underground, (see Continuity of Government), to activate at a moment's notice. When TPTB (at least the minions) start to disappear, you'll know IT's here - they will be like rabbits running into their warrens. |
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Ice
User ID: 729060
10/11/2009 8:49 PM
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 785666
10/11/2009 8:55 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Is there a reason a lot of the earthquakes are on 1 side of the Earth? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 791937
10/11/2009 9:15 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 791943
10/11/2009 9:22 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
I'm curious as to why there have been no quakes off British Columbia, WA. and Ore.
It's wierd to look at the quake maps and see a break in activity there.
Does the Jaun de Fuca Plate keep pressure away from the area , or what's going on?
Anyone know or have ideas?
Thx. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 79810
10/11/2009 9:52 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
for  |
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White Widow
User ID: 780533
10/11/2009 10:22 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Considering VANUATU and the last EQs as per this map:
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
GAUA Banks Islands (SW Pacific) 14.27°S, 167.50°E; summit elev. 797 m
According to news articles from 2 October, increased seismicity at Gaua was detected during the previous two weeks. Villagers living nearby reported ashfall and sulfur odors. Both villagers and a pilot flying past Gaua heard explosions. The Alert Level was raised to 1 (on a scale of 0-5).
Geologic Summary. The roughly 20-km-diameter Gaua Island, also known as Santa Maria, consists of a basaltic-to-andesitic stratovolcano with an 6 x 9 km wide summit caldera. Small parasitic vents near the caldera rim fed Pleistocene lava flows that reached the coast on several sides of the island; several littoral cones were formed where these lava flows reached the sea. Quiet collapse that formed the roughly 700-m-deep caldera was followed by extensive ash eruptions. Construction of the historically active cone of Mount Garat (Gharat) and other small cinder cones in the SW part of the caldera has left a crescent-shaped caldera lake. The symmetrical, flat-topped Mount Garat cone is topped by three pit craters. The onset of eruptive activity from a vent high on the SE flank of Mount Garat in 1962 ended a long period of dormancy. |
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White Widow
User ID: 780533
10/11/2009 10:27 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
[link to www.radioaustralia.net.au]
From Radio Australia.
Vanuatu volcano alert
Updated Fri Oct 2, 2009 5:14pm AEST
Communities on the Vanuatu island of Gaua are worried about the volcano in its centre. For the past fortnight Gaua volcano has shown signs of increased seismic activity, generating sulphurous gas and ash into the atmosphere and affecting water supplies. The volcano's alert level has now been set at one, nowhere near the highest, that's level five, but still a worry for the two thousand people who call the remote island home.
Presenter: Pacific Correspondent Campbell Cooney
Speaker: Gaua Island community headmen, Charles Bice
Listen: Windows Media
(go to link for audio)
BICE: Ash fall from the volcano and also the smelling of sulphur and other gasses that was really no good smell and also their water was also affected and also some of the cabbages which they always eat, one of the cabbages which we call island cabbage. Every time since last Sunday, before they want to cook their island cabbage they have to wash it because of the ashes. The situation especially the confirmation from one of the pilots from Air Vanuatu flying past, he said he heard an explosion. On Sunday, they had the first explosion down on the village on the west coast. They heard an explosion. So Monday morning, some of the young men went up to the top of the lake and they saw that there was a big change, there was a lot of smoke and then the dry leaves and also they told Father ki every 45 minutes they would hear an eruption, like an a loud noise.
COONEY: There is no plans or anything that you are going to have to leave or anything like that?
BICE: Well, for me in 1973, I was away in Vila, but my other families were living on Ambae. My father and one of my brothers was on Gaua when there was evacuation in 1973. They spent two months in Sola which is the provincial headquarter. For two months they were there, they thought a big eruption would happen it never happened. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 791808
10/11/2009 11:20 PM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
I say we make an enormous marshmellow and then make a ginormous blimp to pick the thing up and roast it over one of the volcanoes then gently place it where people need food. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 87692
10/12/2009 5:22 AM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 656642
10/12/2009 6:48 AM | | Re: ALERT - Toba Super Volcano, New Intense Swarm Starts Again - NOV 9 - UPDATE PG 17 | Quote |
Wish I could contribute more, great thread. |
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05 -12.918 166.036 10.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
01 -12.892 165.909 10.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS