A little tidbit from Ted Butler's latest newsletter (10/13/09) that is relevant to this thread:
...........
In my estimation, if JPMorgan did not short sell more than 8,000 contracts, or 40 million ounces, silver would have been over $30 an ounce right now.
JPMorgan’s concentrated and uneconomic silver short position has placed the market at risk. I am aware on no legitimate reason why this position is allowed to exist. It undermines the credibility and lawful functioning of our markets.
Quoting: Anonymous Coward 464288
that is just incredible. seriously. the BIG deal with silver is that there is so little of it and it is the commodity with the BIGGEST short position of any market. the fuse has been lit, is burning and racing toward ignition. i can even hear it.
Anonymous Coward User ID: 771233 10/20/2009 9:27 PM
Given the gyrations seen in the price of gold and silver this week, a natural question is "why??"
This article gives a great, simple explanation. One which reinforces the now almost indusputable belief that the silver (and gold) markets are highly manipulated.
(see bold and underlined)
So I ask again, HOW HIGH WILL SILVER GO?
.......................
There are two significant events this week that could exert pressure for higher gold prices. Because of this, I expect to see major behind-the-scenes actions to try to suppress gold (and silver) prices until the middle of Thursday afternoon.
First, the U.S. government’s Treasury debt auctions will sell the greatest amount of debt ever sold in one week. The net debt increase of $153 billion is so high it will exceed the current authorized federal debt limit. Flooding the financial markets with so much debt is a sign of weakness for the U.S. dollar. As the dollars declines in value, the price of gold in U.S. dollars invariably rises.
Second, we will also see the expiration of options contracts in two days. If the spot price at the close of trading on the day that gold (and silver) options contracts expire is higher than the contract price on a call option, the owner will exercise the option to demand immediate delivery of physical gold. The higher the price of gold, the more call options that will be exercised. Conversely, a lower gold spot price will reduce the demand for gold for immediate delivery. There is a major block of call options at $1,050, so expect prices to stay below that level through Wednesday night.
As we have seen previously in 2009 with large Treasury debt auctions and options expirations, the price of gold was clobbered before these events, and not allowed to rise quickly until after the last Treasury auction closed on Thursday afternoon. I see no reason to expect a different pattern this week.
H.R. 1207, the bill in Congress calling for an audit of the Federal Reserve System (that would also likely result in an audit of the U.S. government’s gold holdings) is under current consideration in the House Financial Services Committee. Hearings began last month. With over 330 co-sponsors of this bill and of the Senate’s companion bill S. 604 (over 75 percent of all members of Congress), there would be reasonable prospects of enactment.
A couple of months ago, the Fed hired a government-relations lobbyist to combat H.R.1207. Various Fed officials have tried to intimidate Congress and the public by stating that enactment of this legislation would result in higher interest rates, higher consumer prices and a falling value of the U.S. dollar. None of these threats seemed to have stopped H.R. 1207 from moving along.
On Oct. 20, a new tactic to combat H.R. 1207 was implemented. Senators Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., and Bob Corker R-Tenn., introduced S. 1803, the Federal Reserve Accountability Act. This alternative bill pretty much guts any attempt at Federal Reserve accountability by allowing only limited audits of the Troubled Asset Relief Program and similar high profile bailouts. I expect to see Fed officials pushing for this bill as a way to sidetrack H.R. 1207.
Last Friday, Bloomberg reported an interview with Shayne McGuire, director of global research at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, the nation’s seventh largest pension fund. McGuire noted that his retirement fund has now invested $250 million of its $95 billion in total assets in precious metals, mining stocks, and exchange traded funds. McGuire further predicted that pension funds were going to have to significantly increase the percentage of their portfolios devoted to precious metals.
Also last Friday, Dennis Gartman, the analyst who writes the Gartman Letter, said that he expects gold to become the world’s largest reserve currency. Gartman is not fan of gold and rejects any possibility that the price of gold has been suppressed. His gold trading recommendations over the past five to 10 years have almost always lost money. There are gold traders who have made profits by trading the opposite of Gartman’s recommendations.
Analyst Adrian Douglas is publisher of the Market Force Analysis and now serves as a member of the board of directors of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee. He issued an essay Saturday where he argues that the volume of gold traded on the London bullion exchange could not be supported by the reported sales of 15,000 tons (482 million ounces). By Douglas’s calculations, the London market needed a minimum of 64,000 tons (2.05 billion ounces) of gold to be sold to support its reported trading volume. He believes that any disclosure that this much extra gold has been sneaked onto the market, leaving less inventory available to cover open contracts in London, could cause a panic in the gold market.
Bill Murphy is the chairman of GATA. He reported late last week the latest scoop from a London trader who has been his source of secret information since the early years of this decade. This source has an extremely accurate record on trends. For instance, he was the first to tell Murphy that it looked like the Chinese government was regularly buying gold reserves, including information on quantities, back in 2003. This same source says he has recently added two American clients, one a very wealthy individual and the other a large corporation, with instructions to execute major physical gold purchases. His source told Murphy that he is having extreme difficulty locating any sizeable quantities of physical metal to fill the orders.
There has been little new reported about the rumors of counterfeit gold bars which are actually gold-plated tungsten. One Chinese company has a Web site (www.tungsten-alloy.com) where it offers to provide tungsten as a gold substitute. On the first page of its Web site, just below a picture of gold ingots, it states, “Also, it is widely adopted in making faking coins . . .” To the extent that counterfeit 100- and 400-ounce gold bars exist, this company almost certainly could fabricate them.
In the meantime, I have heard rumors that all gold bars at the central banks in France and China are being checked for counterfeits. Central banks would have a strong desire to keep such stories from becoming public knowledge, even if no counterfeits were uncovered. If, however, the public got a whiff that one or more major central banks were holding counterfeit gold bars, that could spark a gold-buying panic.
In the summer, I warned that the commercial real estate market would be hard hit in the fall. On Oct. 26, Capmark, one of America’s largest commercial real estate lenders, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. Expect more bad news from this sector in the coming months.
Russia’s central bank has been an aggressive buyer of gold for some time. Late last week a story appeared that a state-owned Russian enterprise might be selling up to 45 tons of gold. If you read the details, you learn that the sale may be as small as two tons. This story is baffling analysts as the Russian central bank could almost certainly snap up the entire amount being offered for sale.
In only one month in the past three years has the Russian central bank reduced its gold reserves. About the only thought that makes sense of this story is that the Russians are astute traders. If everyone thinks the Russians are selling instead of buying, that could knock down the price of the gold to the Russian central bank after this story breaks.
Following the anticipated price dip during the first few days this week, expect the current bull market in gold to come roaring back.
Anonymous Coward User ID: 464288 (OP) 11/3/2009 4:11 PM
Given today's events, i thought it appropriate to resurrect this thread for some more input.
And here is a recent primer on "Why to invest in silver" by Ted Butler:
The Silver Challenge
Recently, Investment Rarities, Inc. has been heavily marketing an investment in silver through magazine (Forbes) advertisements and television commercials. To my knowledge, this is somewhat unusual, in that most similar marketing efforts by other companies involve the purchase of gold, not silver. Since IRI first started sponsoring my research nine years ago, most of their marketing thrust has been silver-oriented. As a result of the response to their current marketing campaign, Jim Cook, the president of IRI, asked me if I would address the question of investing in silver from the perspective of someone brand new to the issue.
This is always a worthwhile exercise, as it forces me to ratchet back from the micro- details that typically consume my analysis. It’s a good thing to be asked to explain why someone new should invest in silver, and my responsibility, as I see it, is to explain a very complicated issue in simple terms. For those already well-versed with the real silver story, I’m expected to answer detailed and well-thought out questions. But, I know if I start talking about things like concentrated short selling and manipulation and prospective regulatory developments in the futures market, someone new to the subject is going to scratch his or her head and move onto something else. I know that would be my reaction if I were in their place. So let me get down to basics.
The first and most important reason why someone new to silver should seriously consider it as an investment, in my opinion, is because silver will make you more money in the long run than anything else of which I’m aware. I admit that’s a pretty strong statement, so let’s see if I can back it up. The only legitimate way to back such a statement is by looking at the past record and by considering the current facts and future prospects.
When I first started writing for IRI, nine years ago, the price of silver ranged between $4 and $5 per ounce for several years. In fact, because the price of silver averaged close to $5 for the decade prior to my association with IRI, in late 2000, it was an investment asset largely neglected. Although there was near universal disdain for silver as an investment, I knew and wrote that the real facts surrounding silver were wildly bullish. Furthermore, I also knew that there was a good explanation as to why the price was so low for so long, in spite of the bullish supply/demand fundamentals. That explanation was because silver was manipulated in price, mainly due to excessive and uneconomic short selling on the COMEX, the principal world silver exchange.
Those early investors who came to believe, like me, that silver was undervalued and took the time to investigate and then invest, have been richly rewarded. While volatile, the price of silver has climbed as much as 400% to 500% from the lows earlier in this decade. There are not many assets that have performed as well over the past nine years, especially when you include only assets that could be invested in easily. Certainly, the stock market and real estate have proven to be dismal failures when compared to the price appreciation that silver has recorded since the end of 2000.
While no one can turn back the clock and make $4 silver available again, I think an investment in silver today will yield returns similar to those achieved by the investors fortunate to have acted years ago. That’s because the facts in silver today are more bullish than they were 9 years ago. I will outline some of those facts in a moment, but first I would like to make in interesting.
Y ears ago, I wrote an article for IRI also titled like this one, “The Silver Challenge.” The challenge was simple – I’ll point out the facts in silver, as I see them, ask you to investigate those facts, and then I’ll challenge you not to invest in silver when you are done investigating. Obviously, I believe that the facts in silver are so compelling that if you do your homework, you will buy it. I will tell you that I have yet to run across anyone who has ever come back to me after a thorough investigation of the silver facts and chose not to buy silver.
Here are the facts. In addition to being a widely-recognized precious metal and store of value for 5,000 years, silver became a vital industrial material in the past century, necessary in thousands of modern applications. That’s because silver has properties superior to any other material, such as, being the best conductor of electricity, the best reflector of light, the best heat transfer agent, an important photographic chemical, and being used in a wide variety of medical applications. Due to these unique properties, the world embarked on a silver consumption binge over the past century. So great was this consumption appetite, that silver production couldn’t keep pace with consumption, and inventories were drawn down to balance the supply/demand equation. By 2006, after 60 continuous years of the world consuming more silver than it produced by mining and recycling, above ground inventories of silver bullion had been depleted to the lowest levels in hundreds of years.
In 1940, the world had 10 billion ounces in total silver bullion inventories, with the US Government the largest single holder at 6 billion ounces. Today, the US Government holds zero ounces, and there appears to be no more than 1 billion ounces of silver bullion in existence, down more than 90%. The depletion of world silver bullion inventories has been so dramatic that it has created a situation that when first learned, causes disbelief. There in now less silver bullion in the world than gold bullion. The disbelief is caused by the question, how can gold be more than 60 times the price of silver, if there is more gold bullion in existence than silver bullion? That’s a very intelligent question. Let me make it easy for you – if you are pressed for time in taking my silver challenge, confine your investigation to that one question. You will discover the fact is correct; it’s the price of silver that is wrong.
If you have more time, please also investigate the fact that, for the first time in decades, the net investment flow into silver has exploded. More silver has been bought as an investment over the past three years than was cumulatively bought in the past 60 years. This investment pattern is expected to continue and intensify in the years ahead, as more people around the world learn of the incredible facts and undervaluation of silver.
If you do investigate the facts and confirm the depletion of world silver inventories, its rarity compared to gold and the burgeoning investment demand, just for starters, you will inevitably be confronted with the simple question that I was originally confronted and challenged with 25 years ago. That question is, with all these incredibly bullish facts in silver, why the heck is it so cheap? I think I can save you the many years of my own personal investigation and study by pointing you to the manipulation of the price due to excessive and concentrated short selling on the COMEX. It would be an understatement to say I have written extensively on this topic. All past writings are available and only require an investment of your time.
As was true when I first wrote of the silver challenge years ago, silver represents the single best investment available. All you have to do is take some time to investigate the real story and use your common sense. If you do that, and take the appropriate action and invest in silver for the long term, you will be as rewarded in the years to come, as were the silver investors who did so in the past.
Ted Butler
Anonymous Coward User ID: 464288 (OP) 11/4/2009 3:59 PM
Silver remains very undervalued on an historical basis (charts below) and is undervalued even against gold (chart below). While gold has begun to receive some interest from a small minority of retail investors, silver remains the preserve of relatively few contrarian investors and the media and financial press rarely if ever covers silver. And yet silver is quite likely in the intermediate stage of a bull market that will rival or surpass that of the 1970’s.
Silver is currently worth less than $17.00 per ounce. Silver rose to a recent nominal high $20.88/oz in March 2008. After an 18 month period of correction and consolidation, silver looks set to challenge that high in the coming months. We continue to be bullish on gold and particularly silver and believe that silver will likely surpass its non inflation adjusted high of $48.70 per ounce and its inflation adjusted high of some $130 per ounce in the coming years.
Why Silver is in a Bull Market and How High Could it Go?
Precious metals has been the best performing asset classes in recent years with gold and silver outperforming equities, property and most asset classes over a 3, 5 and 10 year period. This outperformance looks set to continue in the coming months due to the very bullish fundamentals. The primary reason for our bullish outlook on silver is due to the continuing and increasing global macroeconomic, currency and geopolitical risks; silver’s historic role as money and a store of value; the declining and very small supply of silver; significant industrial demand and perhaps most importantly significant and increasing investment demand.
Gold, oil and nearly every major commodity, stock indices and property market surpassed their record highs in recent years. Favourable supply and demand factors, continuing global macroeconomic and geopolitical risk and concerns regarding the emergence of inflation and stagflation as the massive global monetary and fiscal reflation affects the value of fiat currencies all point to higher silver prices in the long term.
In the 1970’s silver rose from under $1.50/oz in 1970 to nearly $50/oz in 1980. Thus, silver rose by more than 25 times or by more than 2,400%. Were silver to replicate its performance in the 1970’s, it would have to rise by more than 25 times again. The average price of silver in 2001 was $4.37/oz and 25 fold increase would result in silver rising to over $110/oz. While this price target may seem outlandish to some, it is worth remembering that silver’s record high in 1980 adjusted for inflation (according to US government inflation figures) was some $130/oz.
SGS Inflation Adjusted Silver Price (using more accurate government methodology of measuring inflation that was used in 1980)
Admittedly, the final phase of the silver blow off was a speculative bubble as the billionaire Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market. Unlike in 1979, today there are hundreds of billionaires, some multi billionaires, thousands of millionaires, hedge funds and many sovereign wealth funds. Small allocations by any of these will see sharp moves up in the price. Indeed, the silver market is so small that it could very easily be cornered again (as appears to be happened in the tin market in recent weeks).
Is Silver about returns or a hedge against inflation & systemic risk?
Silver is a hedge against macroeconomic, systemic and inflationary risk with the attractive added potential for significant capital gains. Real asset allocation and prudent diversification would be an important reason to have an allocation to silver. Silver is highly correlated to the safe haven of gold and is in effect a leveraged sister of the precious yellow metal. Thus, informed investors use gold more for wealth preservation purposes and silver in order to make a return.
Silver: Declining Supply
In 1900 there were 12 billion oz of silver in the world. By 1990, the internationally respected commodities-research firm CPM Group say that figure had been reduced to around 2.2 billion ounces of silver. Today, that figure has fallen to less than 1 billion ounces in above ground refined silver. It is estimated more than 90% of all the silver that has ever been mined has been consumed by the global photography, technology, medical, defence and electronic industries.
On current supply/demand trends, the amount of above ground refined silver is projected to shrink to even lower levels in the coming years. Industrial demand has been outstripping mining supply for most of the last 20 years, driving above ground supply to historically low levels. Few in the investment world are aware of this important fact.
Silver production has been flat in recent years while demand has been increasing. This hasn't resulted in significantly higher prices yet because the world has been able to fill the gap from inventories and official government stockpiles.
However, today the U.S. government's stockpile is all but gone, and sales from other official sources, such as China, Russia and India, are declining, too. The decline in refined silver stocks, from around 2.2 billion ounces in 1990 to around 300 million ounces today means that silver stocks are near an all time low.
Very importantly, silver is very unusual as its supply is inelastic.
This means that silver production will not ramp up significantly if the silver price goes up. Supply didn't increase significantly in the 1970’s when silver rose more than 35 fold in price – from $1.40/oz in 1971 to a high of nearly $50/oz in 1980. Importantly, silver is a byproduct metal and some 80% of mined silver is a byproduct of base metals. Higher prices for silver will not cause copper, nickel, zinc, lead or other base metal miners to increase their production. In the event of a global stagflationary or deflationary slowdown, demand for base metals would likely fall thus further decreasing the supply of mined silver.
There are only a handful of pure silver mines remaining – many with depleting reserves. This inflexible supply means that we cannot expect significant mine supply to depress the price after silver rises in price. It is extremely rare to find a good, service, commodity or investment that is price inelastic in both supply and demand. This is another powerfully bullish aspect unique to silver.
Silver: Increasing Industrial Demand
Industrial applications for silver have always been significant but have increased significantly in recent years. Silver is used in film, mirrors, batteries, medical devices, electrical appliances such as fridges, toasters, washing machines and uses have expanded to include cell phones, flat-screen televisions and many other modern high tech devices.
Increasing industrial demand for silver is forecast due to economic growth in China, India, Vietnam, Russia, Brazil and other emerging economies in South America, the Middle East and Asia. Growing middle classes are now demanding the quality of life and standard of living enjoyed by many in the West and thus the demand for silver will likely increase.
Silver is known as the ‘healthy metal’ and has many and increasing medical applications.
In a world that is showing increasing concern about the spread of diseases and pandemics such as swine flu, silver is being increasingly tapped for its biocidal properties. Research is ongoing on the use of silver and its compounds for therapeutic uses and on its potential use as a disinfectant in hospitals and other medical facilities.
Increasingly, silver’s antimicrobial and antibacterial qualities are seeing it being used in all sorts of medical applications and this looks set to become a very significant source of demand in the coming years.
Silver has many unique properties which make it ideal and indeed essential in global industry – especially in the global photography, technology, medical, defence and electronic industries. Yet, silver is a finite resource and the supply of silver is increasing only very incrementally.
It is important to note that silver, unlike gold, is heavily used in industry and because of gold's much higher value, it gets recycled and all the gold mined in the world ever is still with us but a huge amount of silver has been used in photography, mirrors and other industrial uses in the last 200 years. The low price of silver makes recovery and recycling uneconomic.
Unlike gold, silver is like oil – as it is consumed in these many industrial applications it is gone forever.
Silver: Increasing Investment Demand
Investment demand for silver has risen in recent years as investors concerned about the value and safety of property, equities and deposits allocated funds to the finite commodities and currencies of silver and gold. More recently, there are increasing concerns about the value of paper currencies themselves (voiced by many including Alan Greenspan, John Paulson and George Soros) which is leading to further diversification into hard assets and precious metals.
There has been a marked increase in investment demand for silver in recent years. Some of the reasons why this trend is likely to continue are - the introduction of ETFs that track the price of silver, a new global liquidity bubble, the significant growth in the global money supply, the proliferation of millionaires, ultra high net worth individuals and billionaires, the proliferation of hedge funds and the exponential growth in derivatives.
The Bank for International Settlements has estimated that the total value of derivatives contracts was $592 trillion at the end of 2008 (up exponentially from $260 trillion in June 2006). Thus, dwarfing the GDP of the entire world which was estimated at some $61 trillion at the end of 2008.
There is still a debate as to whether derivatives are a good or a bad thing. Alan Greenspan recently warned they could lead to "cascading cross defaults." Warren Buffett is similarly concerned and has warned that they could trigger “serious systemic problems.” Buffet said that “the derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. “
For this reason Buffett presciently called derivatives “financial weapons of mass destruction” in 2003.
Investors in silver bullion coins and bars are hedging themselves against further deflation and falls in property and equity markets. They are further protecting themselves against rising inflation, possible currency devaluations and still very prevalent geopolitical and macroeconomic risks such those posed by the humongous global derivatives market.
Silver Undervalued Versus Gold
Silver is undervalued versus gold with the gold silver ratio at 60:1 ($1050oz/$17/oz) This is particularly the case on a long term historical basis. The long term historical average gold to silver ratio is 15:1 and this is because it is estimated that geologically there are some 15 parts of silver in the ground for every one part of gold. In 1980 the ratio nearly reached 15 ($850oz/$50oz=17) and the average in the 20th century has been around 40:1.
Many analysts believe that silver’s ratio to gold will revert to its mean average in recent years below 40:1. Even if gold only remained at some $1,000/oz this would see silver rise to some $25/oz ($1,000oz/$40oz=25).
A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words
SGS Inflation Adjusted Silver Price (using more accurate government methodology of measuring inflation that was used in 1980)
A picture or a chart truly is worth a thousand words and the chart above showing silver prices adjusted for inflation shows how seriously undervalued silver remains.
Conclusion
Silver is unique in terms of being both a monetary and an industrial metal. Silver is priced at less than $17/oz today. The average nominal price of silver in 1979 and 1980 was $21.80/oz and $16.39/oz respectively. In today’s dollars and adjusted for inflation that would equate to an inflation adjusted average price of some $60/oz and $44/oz in 1979 and 1980. It is for this reason that we believe silver will be valued at well over $50/oz in the coming years and silver remains the investment opportunity of a lifetime.
Anonymous Coward User ID: 464288 (OP) 11/11/2009 1:24 PM
The last paragraph of Ted Butler's recent newsletter (subscribers only):
What this means to subscribers is to continue to be prepared for either a price explosion straightaway or a price explosion after one more clean-out to the downside. The issue in front of us should be clear to you. As I have maintained consistently, the central issue at this time is the concentration on the short side of silver. How this issue is resolved will determine the price path for silver in the immediate future. All events, as they occur, seem to be confirming the coming resolution. No matter the timetable or near term price direction, the final resolution will mandate a silver price radically higher than the current price.
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