Apophis coming in 2029, direct hit or will it miss?

Asteroid threat pops up on the radar screen for future space policy
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Apophis is coming.
On April 13, 2029, an asteroid the size of two and a half football fields, a solid rock named for the Egyptian god of evil and destruction, will come out of the heavens moving at 4 miles per second (6.4 kilometers per second), streaking as close as 18,300 miles (29,300 kilometers). That’s closer than the geosynchronous satellites orbiting Earth.
Some will watch in wonder. Others will pray. A few will study and marvel at the bright object moving so close over our shores. But most will stand stunned, witnessing the closest celestial threat to our planet in our lifetime. If our luck should fail, if some force should change the asteroid’s path ever so slightly, Apophis could turn an area the size of the state of New York into an instantaneous hell.
If Apophis hits — either in 2029 or during a follow-up encounter in 2036 — the sheer violence of the 900-foot-wide (270-meter-wide) rock would throw billions of tons of scorched earth and vaporized water and melting metals and glass into the atmosphere. The sun would be blotted out in the blast zone. Living things would be wiped out.
Scientists are still weighing how much of a threat Apophis actually poses. After five years of carefully calculating Apophis’ path, NASA this month reduced the probability of a direct hit from a 1-in-45,000 chance to 1-in-250,000.

[link to www.not_gonna_happen]