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Welcome to the new world order: The race to 2011 starts here

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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 773473
11/6/2009 1:10 PM
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Welcome to the new world order: The race to 2011 starts here

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[link to www.guardian.co.uk]

Now is a good time to assess form for the 2011 World Cup

Friday 9 September 2011. Blink and it'll be here in no time but with 22 months to go before the next World Cup this is a pretty good time to look at the runners and riders. For a start, all of the top 10 in the current world rankings will be here in the next month.

South Africa, the world champions and currently rated No1 after winning the Tri-Nations, have intriguing matches against France and Ireland. The No2, New Zealand, face Wales, England and France as well as Italy, and Australia – No3 in the IRB's rankings – go one better, playing England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales, and attempt a grand slam.

A couple of months ago, during the Tri-Nations, I took a southern hemisphere perspective. This time, I'll look at the world order with European eyes, tweaking the results-based rankings to allow for home advantage, form and gut instinct.

Argentina, for example, are rated sixth by the IRB and based upon their World Cup record you'd probably nudge them a bit higher. But they are away from home and are missing some big guns, so I'll let them slip down to eighth, just a whisker behind Wales and England. So, taking it from the top ...

No1 South Africa

No argument here. They won the Tri‑Nations almost before it began, but I would suggest that playing the Lions was the best preparation available. Those were three very physical Tests – possibly tougher than what was to come versus the All Blacks and Australia. Mind you, having their kicking game doesn't hurt. Tactically, and with excellent chasers, it allows them to play in opposition territory, where mistakes will cost points. Their place kicker rarely seems to miss and they drop goals from 60metres.
No2 New Zealand

Again no quibble and I think they'll get better as the World Cup – played in their own back yard – gets closer. They're missing a few at the moment, so there will be a few new faces, but very soon you'll see familiar guys like Carl Hayman and Chris Jack back in black.
No3 The IRB says Australia but I prefer France

It's not solely the current Wallaby record I'm going by because you have to look at the opposition they have been facing and it is a regular diet of All Black and Springbok. No, it's a lack of depth in the resources available to coach Robbie Deans. My guess is that he sees this tour as his springboard to 2011; he's looking for more talent but he has to take a decent scalp otherwise the pressure back home will just keep increasing. England would settle the jitters.
Why would I put France at three? They shared a series in New Zealand in the summer and I feel that Marc Lièvremont is moving things on again. Certainly he's got the right captain in Thierry Dusautoir. After being in temporary charge down under, he looks to have the job until 2011. His autumn kicks off with the Boks in Toulouse, his home town, and ends with the All Blacks in Marseille. Amazing venues.

No4 Ireland

If a summer with the Lions told me anything it was to appreciate mature talents like Brian O'Driscoll while looking forward to the development of players like Tommy Bowe, Keith Earls and Rob Kearney. Watch out for Stephen Ferris, too, so unlucky in South Africa.
No 5 Australia

The IRB says France. I say the Wallabies. This is where we go our separate ways.
No6= Wales and England

Argentina, says the board, but on home ground I have Wales and England pretty equal here. Both sides have injuries but both should try to use that fact to their advantage. Wales are a good side when they are at full strength, but before you can consider doing well at a World Cup you have to have talent in depth and the next month should show where we stand. Usually there is a chance to rotate the squad during the autumn Tests, but with New Zealand, Samoa, Argentina and finally Australia the pressure does not go away. And we intend to heap a bit more on ourselves with a pre-World Cup programme that relies heavily on southern hemisphere opposition – a lot of it All Black. With England I think there is a bit of a misconception. Yes, this is the time for the new boys to put their hands up, but those who write off the likes of Phil Vickery and Simon Shaw for 2011 should think again. The World Cup is very much on their minds.
No8 Argentina

The IRB has England at No7 and then Wales but with them sharing sixth place on the Edwards table, Argentina slip down for reasons already given.
Nos 9 and 10 Scotland and Fiji

The board says Fiji then Scotland, but when they go head-to-head at Murrayfield next week, home advantage and possibly the Robbo factor, will count. It's Andy Robinson's first game in charge, he knows how to win – and did in 2003 – and I expect Scotland to realise more of their potential, even without Euan Murray.

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