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WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS.
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Joe Neubarth
User ID: 772877
11/7/2009 10:44 AM
Report abusive post | WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS.
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People call me names on this board because I say we are in Depression, yet those same people can't cite the data that would show that the economy is rebounding like the stock market........
Could it be Retail Sales numbers for the past year?
RETAIL SALES
SEP 2009 - 1.5 %
AUG 2009 -0.2%
JUL 2009 -0.1
JUN 2009 +0.8 %
MAY 2009 +0.5%
APR 2009 0.4%
MAR 2009 1.3%
FEB 2009 0.1%
JAN 2009 + 1.0%
DEC 2008 2.7%
NOV 2008 2.1%
OCT 2008 2.9%
SEP 2008 1.3%
AUG 2008 0.4%
[link to biz.yahoo.com]
Could it be DURABLE ORDERS ???? Subject to wide fluctuations, up or down two to three percent in any month. What is the average trend for 12 months? Remember flip flops on the bottom, just like a fish out of water is not a valid indicator. All that shows is that the numbers have some degree of error that can show month to month, as can be seen in January and February.
SEP 2009 +1.0%
AUG 2009 -2.4%
JUL 2009 +4.8%
JUN 2009 -1.3%
MAY 2009 +1.3%
APR 2009 +1.9%
MAR 2009 - 2.1%
FEB 2009 +3.4%
JAN 2009 5.2%
DEC2008 2.6%
NOV 2008 1.0 %
OCT 2008 8.4%
SEP 2008 1.0%
AUG 2008 4.5%
How about Capacity Utilization? I have given you a snapshot back in time to show you what it was like in better conditions.
CAPACITY UTILIZATION It looks like it is just flip flopping to me.
SEP 2009 70.5%
AUG 2009 69.9%
JUL 2009 68.5%
JUN 2009 68.1%
MAY 2009 68.3%
APR 2009 69.0%
^^^^^^^^^^^
JUN 2007 81.7%
MAY 2007 81.3%
APR 2007 81.5%
MAR 2007 81.4%
OR MAYBE CONSTRUCTION SPENDING? It looks to me that it has fallen and can not get up! FLIP FLOPPING ON THE BOTTOM.
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING The monthly changes are both volatile and subject to huge revisions.
SEP 2009 0.8%
AUG 2009 0.1%
JUL 2009 -1.1%
JUN 2009 +0.1%
MAY 2009 0.9%
APR 2009 + 0.6%
MAR 2009 +0.3%
FEB 2009 -1.0%
JAN 2009 -3.5%
DEC 2008 -2.4%
NOV 2008 -1.2%
OCT 2008 -0.4%
SEP 2008 0.0 |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 812691
11/7/2009 10:53 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
KEEP THAT MIND SHARP!!
 |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 464288
11/7/2009 10:53 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
I agree, this is a depression.
And despite some minimally encouraging signs, it is not getting better. Certainly not at the rate needed.
I have posted a few times before that my personal belief is that any real "recovery" will be choked off almost immediately by the rising energy costs that are the result of PEAK OIL.
We have stopped talking about PEAK OIL recently bc we don't see its effects as clearly given the demand destruction of the current economic situation, but that doesn't mean it has gone away.
It is an undeniable geologic fact -- we will NEVER have cheap energy again.
And that has profound implications for our economy, which has alwasy been predicated on continuing GROWTH.
Can't grow without cheap energy. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 464288
11/7/2009 10:59 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
I think this graph says a lot:
[link to graphics8.nytimes.com]
And even if the pace of job loss has slowed, which is a small victory of sorts, let's face it -- we're still losing a couple hundred thousand jobs a month.
We're not even close to creating jobs.
Before we can even THINK about creating jobs, people will have to build up hours, back to a regular workweek. Don't have a link, but I read the average week has shrunk to 33.5 hours.
Businesses won't start hiring until current employees are FULLY employed, back up to 40 hours a week.
No jobs = deprssion.
It's real bad, no doubt about it. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 812689
11/7/2009 11:00 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Not only are we in a depression but an ENGINEERED depression. It started in 1970 when nixon and kissassenger sucked up to the third world nation of Commie China. It's been downhill since.
We will NEVER get out of our depression until the sellout criminals in DC are replaced by Americans. These pigs are GLOBALISTS. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 772877 (OP)
11/7/2009 11:04 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
I think this graph says a lot:
[ link to graphics8.nytimes.com]
And even if the pace of job loss has slowed, which is a small victory of sorts, let's face it -- we're still losing a couple hundred thousand jobs a month.
We're not even close to creating jobs.
Before we can even THINK about creating jobs, people will have to build up hours, back to a regular workweek. Don't have a link, but I read the average week has shrunk to 33.5 hours.
Businesses won't start hiring until current employees are FULLY employed, back up to 40 hours a week.
No jobs = deprssion.
It's real bad, no doubt about it.
I have 20 friends who are out of work. Not one has found a job in the past 13 months. The jobs are just not there regardless of what spin Obama and his minions feed us. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 368888
11/7/2009 11:08 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
low waged jobs are available at fast food places
But I agree, the job market sucks! |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 812689
11/7/2009 11:09 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
It is an undeniable geologic fact -- we will NEVER have cheap energy again. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 464288
Well here is some good news.
o We have at least 300 years of Coal
o We have at least 300 years of oil in Alaska
Here is the bad news our sellout globalist government has locked up both.
We can make the coal clean to burn and burning oil is no REAL problem.
Our problems are totally POLITICAL.
Tell a sheeple near you. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 464288
11/7/2009 11:12 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Look, I know its unpopular here to say anything good about Obama, but the guy is making the best of a horrible situation. A situation he really did nothing to create.
Now yes, he's a politician, and he's going to spin things. But give a little credit.
IMHO, he's failed primarily by not going FAR ENOUGH. He needs to be a lot more aggressive, particularly with energy independence.
Green jobs are the one area where there is potential growth, perhaps even enough to start making some real progress in getting out of the hole we are in.
Desperate times call for desperate measures -- frankly, I think Obama's being a major pussy.
That being said, I almost hope that he's been cold and calculating enought to hold on some of that stimulus money -- I read somewhere that only a fraction of it has yet been spent.
Hopefully, Obama figured it would be best to get that money going as the midterms approached. No data for that obviously, just a hope. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 812689
11/7/2009 11:14 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Yet those same people can't cite the data that would show that the economy is rebounding like the stock market........ Quoting: Anonymous Coward 812691
Yep we want to believe. We want to trust what our lying puppet government is telling us.
BUT wanting will NEVER displace what IS.
This is the exact same problem with taking a "vaccination". |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 762208
11/7/2009 11:16 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
"I have 20 friends who are out of work. Not one has found a job in the past 13 months. The jobs are just not there regardless of what spin Obama and his minions feed us."
How are these poor folks getting by? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 812689
11/7/2009 11:17 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Desperate times call for desperate measures -- frankly, I think Obama's being a major pussy. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 368888
obomba is a puppet doing EXACTLY what he is told to do. The PTB doing the telling are destroying the USA. Each and every action our black puppet has taken is designed to prolong and make worse our depression. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 464288
11/7/2009 11:19 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
It is an undeniable geologic fact -- we will NEVER have cheap energy again.
Well here is some good news.
o We have at least 300 years of Coal
o We have at least 300 years of oil in Alaska
Here is the bad news our sellout globalist government has locked up both.
We can make the coal clean to burn and burning oil is no REAL problem.
Our problems are totally POLITICAL.
Tell a sheeple near you. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 812689
You know I think those beliefs are part of the problem.
We DON'T have 300 years of oil in Alaska.
There is no such thing as clean coal.
Here's a really good, well sourced book:
[link to www.amazon.com]
If you have one that can support your assertions about oil in Alaska and clean coal, please share. But unfortunately, I think those beleifs are myths. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 523714
11/7/2009 11:33 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
I'd qualify the term from Depression to Repression as the market effects are significantly different. Depressions adequately (although painfully) redistribute capital assets to support industries that will yield the greatest return on assets (or other measures allowing tax games and leverage). This Repression on the other hand seeks to prevent the painful redistribution, instead using an inflationary regime to allocate additional funds to industry's that the government deems to have the most efficient use of capital (here efficiency will not mean consumer welfare, but rather political stability and security). Therefore, we will get all the pain of a depression, but few of the benefits. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 464288
11/7/2009 11:38 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
I'd qualify the term from Depression to Repression as the market effects are significantly different. Depressions adequately (although painfully) redistribute capital assets to support industries that will yield the greatest return on assets (or other measures allowing tax games and leverage). This Repression on the other hand seeks to prevent the painful redistribution, instead using an inflationary regime to allocate additional funds to industry's that the government deems to have the most efficient use of capital (here efficiency will not mean consumer welfare, but rather political stability and security). Therefore, we will get all the pain of a depression, but few of the benefits. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 523714
I like that notion -- the Great Repression. You are quite correct, in my view.
Someone else recently had a thread about the ways this Depression/Repression is different from previous ones:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
I think the biggest difference is that people were in such huge debt the last time. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 801300
11/7/2009 11:49 AM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
 |
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anonymous coward
User ID: 812685
11/7/2009 12:00 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
The "Great Repression" began in 2000 and has become deeper ever since. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 812087
11/7/2009 12:04 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
GREEN SHOOTS WOOT WOOT |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 523714
11/7/2009 12:21 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Feel free to use the term "Repression." To my knowledge it hasn't been adopted as terminology in the economic community yet; but I am planning to publish in the spring in my school's Business Review about the implications of this different economic event and hopefully it will one day be a distinguished economic condition. |
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Joe Neubarth
User ID: 772877 (OP)
11/7/2009 12:42 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
All of the numbers in the beginning of the post can be verified by looking them up on the link provided. It will take hours, but the numbers all jive with the Yahoo Economic Calendar.
The economy has fallen in the US and it is not improving. It is just flopping around like a fish out of water.
Unemployment is increasing and Unemployment Insurance claims are about two million a month.
One good thing has happened in the past year. More and more older people have given up looking for work and are on Social Security, thus freeing up job opportunities for the young. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 638079
11/7/2009 12:45 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Private citizens should not be allowed to drive motor vehicles. They should walk or ride bicycle. The roads and the oil should be for trucks and companies government to use.
Citizens should learn to shop locally. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 812743
11/7/2009 12:47 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
 I am not depressed and doing just fine |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 744028
11/7/2009 1:21 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
from another forum :
[link to wallstreetbear.com]
Sober, rational analysis of the economic situation and the "Gold Bubble".
Rasputin - Sat, Nov 7, 2009 - 07:08 AM
All hysteria regarding the supposed "Gold Bubble" aside, please allow me to take this opportunity to present a sober, rational (and lengthy) case for why central bankers and other prudent people are piling into PMs.
Firstly, it has been approximately two full years since the "Ponzi Pyramid of Debt and Derivatives Death" began to implode. It started with the the marginal homedebtor defaults in the fall of 2007, and has subsequently cascaded through the entire financial system, collapsing the following gigantic entities:
1. Countrywide Financial
2. Bear Stearns
3. Fannie, Freddie, FHLBs
4. Merrill Lynch
5. Goldman, Morgan Stanley (who had to be converted to "commercial banks" in a rush 24-hour period)
6. Citi and BofA
7. AIG
8. GM, Chrysler
9. Other banks, pension funds, the entire money market space and additional financial gamblers too numerous to list here.
10. Actual states, with California being the poster child.
In the interim time since the collapse of Bear Stearns in March of 2008, the Fed and Uncle Sugar have jumped in with both feet and have gone on the most massive fiatsco-flinging campaign in the history of mankind. Monetizations, nationalizations, backstops, loans, direct buy-ins, "stress tests", stimulus packages, extensions of unemployment benefits, "Cash for Clunkers", 8000-fiatsco-bribes-for-homedebtors...you name it, they've done it.
And Europe and Asia have gone on similar campaigns to fight the worldwide economic collapse, with the central banks and governments of the world flinging a total of:
TWENTY TRILLION FIATSCOS
...at the failed financial gamblers.
And an extremely important issue of the Fed's efforts has been their gargantuan implementation of the "Alphabet Soup" programs, which include:
1. AMLF
2. CPFF
3. Interest on Reserves
4. MMIFF
5. PDCF
6. TAF
7. TALF
8. TARP
9. TSLF
...and of course the creation of various "Maiden Lanes" to literally take over Bear Stearns and AIG, paying off counterparties to these failed financial gamblers at 100%.
As part of the myriad programs outlined above, the Fed is now the "proud owner" of the following "collateral" now "backing" the U.S. nightcrawler:
Cabelas Credit Card Master Note Trust
CarMax Auto Owner Trust 2009-1
Chase Issuance Trust
Citibank Credit Card Issuance Trust
CNH Equipment Trust 2009-B
Ford Credit Auto Owner Trust
GE Capital Credit Card Master Note Trust
Harley-Davidson Motorcycle Trust 2009-1
Honda Auto Receivables 2009-2 Owner Trust
Huntington Auto Trust 2009-1
MMCA Auto Owner Trust 2009-A
Nissan Auto Receivables 2009-A Owner Trust
SLM Private Education Loan Trust 2009-B
Small Business Administration Participation Certificates
Volkswagen Auto Lease Trust 2009-A
World Financial Network Credit Card Master Note Trust
World Omni Auto Receivables Trust 2009-A
In addition to the above list of trash, the Fed has also taken in unknown quantities of EVEN MORE useless gunk in the from of Wall Street-supplied MBS, CDOs/Squareds/Cubeds.
And let us not forget that the Fed is also sopping up Agencies like there is no tomorrow, having purchased approximately 700-billion fiatscos worth so far, of a promised 1.5 trillion or so.
Then there is the 300-billion fiatscos of Uncle Sugar's debt outright that the Fed has swallowed.
Finally, there is the dropping of "Free Market Fed Funds Overnight Rates" to near-zero and keeping them there.
Whew! That's a lot of action in such a short time.
And the result of all of this flinging on the part of Uncle Sugar and the Fed?
Well, the banking system is STILL crippled. The banks are lending very little to the lambs, instead preferring to simply sit on their reserves and collect the .25% annual interest from the Fed.
The residential McMansion market is still in collapse mode, with Fannie and Freddie still showing losses one year after Uncle Sugar took them over and seven months after the Fed started sucking up their MBS and debt. In fact, the McMortgage market is so horrid that BOTH Fannie and Freddie have resorted to converting McLoans to McRental agreements in a desperate attempt to keep the deadbeat, dirtball homedebtors in the rotting McBoxes.
Commercial real estate is no better, with thousands of unfinished strip malls and "see-through" office buildings dragging down the regional banks that piled into these speculative endeavors because the developers are failing and defaulting left-and-right.
Referring back to the above-listed toxic, horrid trash that the Fed has taken on its balance sheet, the deadbeats that owe these credit card, Harley Hog, student loans and other debts are defaulting in record numbers, as unemployment has now reached:
Sixteen million people
...and rising.
Which means they won't be making the payments on the "assets" that back the U.S. nightcrawler. It's as simple as that.
But that's not even the worst part. The junk that the Fed took on its balance sheet from the failed financial gamblers is in even MORE pathetic shape and there is NO CHANCE that a good portion of the ABS/MBS/CDO/CDO-Squareds/Cubeds that the now owns (and won't disclose, even to Congress nor under FOIA suits) will ever cash flow.
(Ras Conclusion): Despite two full years of unprecedented action by The Fed, Uncle Sugar, and other central banks and governments, the financial system is still crippled. This is why we have witnessed the CONTINUED monetizations and ZIRP action on the part of the major CBs, worldwide.
And with world trade having collapsed approximately thirty-percent in the last year, the situation isn't getting better, but rather worse.
Finally, the single most important stastic--U.S. Consumer Debt--is actually FALLING, not rising, which means that our economy, which is seventy-percent consumer-based, is actually shrinking.
Which means that the "Ponzi Pyramid of Debt and Derivatives Death" continues to implode.
So, it is little wonder that China, India, and now Sri Lanka--as well as other central banks and prudent people looking to preserve their wealth--are scrambling into buggy whips.
Because these central banks and governments aren't going to stop their fiatsco-flinging campaigns, despite the fact that, so far, their efforts have only mitigated the "Great Disintegration I" that has been ongoing for over two years now.
And the Fed will NEVER be able to unwind the majority of the trash they have taken on their balance sheet--unless they can somehow pass it on to either Uncle Sugar (translation: the taxpayer) or foist it off on the money market funds (as they have been floating trial balloons to that effect lately).
So, at this point I have concluded that useless, barbarous, relics are not in a "bubble", but rather the fiat prices are merely reflecting the growing loss of faith in the fiat system.
And this trend looks to continue for some time, until either "Great Disintegration I" finishes playing out, or the governments and central banks manage to pull off "Weimar Meets Zimbabwe", which is what they are now undertaking.
Thank you for your patience, if you actually read through this entire missive. Perhaps you will come to a different conclusion, but the facts presented here are beyond dispute. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 787970
11/7/2009 1:24 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Private citizens should not be allowed to drive motor vehicles. They should walk or ride bicycle. The roads and the oil should be for trucks and companies government to use.
Citizens should learn to shop locally. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 638079
Are you trying to pick a fight? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 812841
11/7/2009 1:59 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
"I have 20 friends who are out of work. Not one has found a job in the past 13 months. The jobs are just not there regardless of what spin Obama and his minions feed us."
How are these poor folks getting by? Quoting: Anonymous Coward 762208
Here's how I'm getting by:
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 812841
11/7/2009 2:03 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Private citizens should not be allowed to drive motor vehicles. They should walk or ride bicycle. The roads and the oil should be for trucks and companies government to use.
Citizens should learn to shop locally. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 638079
Excellent idea, even the names of the cars in the US seem like they were made up by some cynical communist to make fun of the people driving them:
Pontiac Grand Prick
Escape
Moron-o
Avalanche
Cherokee (that's just mean)
And don't get me started on how ridiculous the hummer design is - like it was designed to make those people look like the most retarded fools on the face of the earth. Corporate, plastic looking, backstabbing fools that drive those. |
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Joe Neubarth
User ID: 772877 (OP)
11/7/2009 2:35 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
"I have 20 friends who are out of work. Not one has found a job in the past 13 months. The jobs are just not there regardless of what spin Obama and his minions feed us."
How are these poor folks getting by?
Here's how I'm getting by:
[ link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Since we all live in California, they have two years of unemployment benefits to use. Me, I am living off of the royalties of my writing. My paperbacks made me some money, but the E-BOOKS have been very good to me. I have been doing a lot of traveling across this great country as of late, and I can see the Depression first hand. It is getting very ugly out there. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 772877 (OP)
11/7/2009 4:58 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
We need to let as many people know that the real economic numbers do not show improvement in the economy. Obama may be talking it up, but that does not mean it is really happening. |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 772877 (OP)
11/8/2009 7:39 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Now, Obama is saying he will not rest until all Americans can have jobs. Hummmmmmm???? |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 795307
11/8/2009 8:02 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Great Repression |
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Anonymous Coward
User ID: 5240
11/8/2009 8:10 PM | | Re: WE ARE IN A SOLID DEPRESSION, FOLKS. | Quote |
Look, I know its unpopular here to say anything good about Obama, but the guy is making the best of a horrible situation. A situation he really did nothing to create.
Now yes, he's a politician, and he's going to spin things. But give a little credit.
IMHO, he's failed primarily by not going FAR ENOUGH. He needs to be a lot more aggressive, particularly with energy independence.
Green jobs are the one area where there is potential growth, perhaps even enough to start making some real progress in getting out of the hole we are in.
Desperate times call for desperate measures -- frankly, I think Obama's being a major pussy.
That being said, I almost hope that he's been cold and calculating enought to hold on some of that stimulus money -- I read somewhere that only a fraction of it has yet been spent.
Hopefully, Obama figured it would be best to get that money going as the midterms approached. No data for that obviously, just a hope. Quoting: Anonymous Coward 464288
You can't fix stupid. |
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