Anonymous Coward
User ID: 818390
 Poland
11/15/2009 5:53 PM
Report abusive post | GEAB 39- DECENT INTO ECONOMY OF HELL WILL BE OBVIOUS TO ALL BY APRIL 2010!!!!!!!!
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Messed up the title of my other thread, sorry for double posting this but it has some important yet grave information.
***TRANSLATED FROM FRENCH; ENGLISH VERSION OUT TOMORROW***
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February, without major overhaul of the international monetary system, the world is now entering in the current phase of global geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. For the year 2010, amid economic and social depression, and increased protectionism, and this trend will condemn many states to choose between three brutal options, namely: inflation, the surge pressure tax or insolvency. A growing number of countries (USA, UK, Euroland (1), Japan, China (2), ...), having fired all the cartridges fiscal and monetary crisis in the financial year 2008/2009, may in fact more s 'offer another alternative. However, reflexively ideological and trying to avoid by all means take painful choices, they will still try to introduce new economic stimulus plans (often under other names) even though it has become obvious that great public efforts in recent months aimed at reviving growth will not be relayed by the private sector. Indeed, the consumer-as-we-the-knows-from-many-decades is indeed dead, without hope of resurrection (3). And nearly 30% of the economy of Western countries is no longer made up only of "zombie economy" - financial institutions, companies or even states that the appearance of life is due only to waves of daily liquidity injected by central banks, the inevitability of the "impossible recovery (4) is confirmed. The beggar international and social (in each country) and is programmed as the general impoverishment of the former West, United States primarily. It's actually a scuttling of the West that supports live with leaders unable to confront the reality of the world after the crisis and who persist in repeating the methods of yesterday's world which, however, everyone can see the inefficiency.
In this GEAB No. 39, our team has chosen to develop its expectations on the general trends of 2010 will be characterized by the choice of key states restricted to three options that are sharp inflation, high tax or cessation of payments, and their vain attempts to avoid these painful choices.
One of the causes of this deadlock recovery plans since the death of the consumer-as-we-know-l'a past thirty years, we analyze this phenomenon in this issue of GEAB and its consequences for business, marketing and advertising.
In geopolitical matters, we also develop in this GEAB No. 39 of LEAP/E2020 expectations regarding Turkey in 2015, both vis-à-vis NATO and EU.
And of course, we present our monthly recommendations and the results of last GlobalEuromètre.
The possibility for States to escape the brutal three options can be summarized thus very simple two hopes: that consumption resumes or restarts private investment. Without either of these positive dynamics, the states will in fact no other choice in 2010 that greatly increase taxes to cope with their huge public deficits, to allow for inflation spinning reduce their debt burden or even to declare insolvency. Some, like the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Argentina, Latvia, and even Spain, Turkey, Dubai or Japan, may have to assume two or three options both.
However, on the front as on consumption than investment, the trends are negative. The consumer is affected on all sides by pressures durable savings, to repay its debts and, more generally, to refuse (voluntarily or not) the Western model of consumption of these last thirty years (5), which has led growth, including the United States and the United Kingdom, to depend almost entirely on him (6). As for companies, their lack of visibility (for positive) or their negative expectations cause a decline in the investment restrictions of credit held by banks only add (7). Public investment in turn affects its budgetary limits as the recovery plans will not be extended or renewed significantly except to further increase government deficits and to condemn, by the end of 2010, to incur two simultaneous brutal three options (8). Indeed, states are facing increasing pressures (public, oversight bodies, private operators) (9) to balance their fiscal positions that are at best troublesome and often dangerous. In other words, public investment for 2010/2011 are doomed to fall like a trickle.
As regards external demand, there is complete saturation: everybody wants now to export to find eager consumers or business venture capitalist at the neighbor, failing to find home. The prevailing myth is that Asia and particularly China, will provide this "new consumers to the West." In addition there will be many called and few chosen non-Chinese or non-Asian to enjoy the area market, imagine that it will be as eager as the Western consumer is now dying to some cases of systemic of the current crisis. The luxury industry and its current woes in Asia, however, provide a good illustration.
The "economy-zombie" is now a considerable part of the global economy
Central banks which continue to supply liquidity to financial markets, hoping that at some point, this immense effort quantitative cause a qualitative leap towards the real economy. Still claiming that the crisis did not reflect a problem of widespread insolvency of banks, consumers, government agencies and many businesses, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom, they wait for Godot in creating the conditions 'high inflation and a collapse of their currencies and their finances.
States, assuming without wincing all the faults of the following banks and still again and again the advice of bankers, who are primarily indebted beyond reasonable and beyond the tolerable, and that today 's are preparing to drastically cut government spending (10) while significantly increasing taxes in an attempt to avoid bankruptcy (11).
The "zombie economy" (12), private or public, which now comprise a significant portion of Western and Chinese economies: United States suspended payments objective (such as the United Kingdom or United States) but technically that person declares as such, companies in bankruptcy but continue to operate as if nothing was to avoid even more massive unemployment (13), insolvent banks (14) where we change the accounting rules and we do grow to conceal their assets now without values, to postpone to a later their inevitable implosion (15).
Financial markets that fuel their rising cash donated by the Central Banks (16) keen to restore consumer / fellow feeling of richness to it again to be himself and to drink heavily while all categories of assets (17) as the gold example, are also increasing (and often even higher), indicating inflation already strong.
Unemployed workers accumulate tens of millions in and outside the official statistics, one-year warranty 2010 brutal socially and commercially under the sign of protectionism for the backup job (via tariffs, environmental or health or through simple competitive devaluations), while governments are wondering how long they will still be able to assume the overall cost of compensation for the massive unemployment, with no recovery on the horizon (18).
LEAP/E2020 had written in February and March 2009 that without a complete overhaul of the international monetary system until the summer of 2009, the world would move inexorably toward the geopolitical situation of global dislocation, a kind of "great depression" wide planetary centered on the collapse of the pillar of the American world of yesterday. We're (19). Behind the figures, even tampered with (20), can no longer hide the deteriorating economic and social world, and the continuation of the descent into hell of the economy and American society, it is this reality that is emerging now and clearly will become obvious to all by the start of the second quarter of 2010. In this GEAB No. 39, our team is trying, like every month, to anticipate these major changes so that everyone, either personally or in his office, can best prepare for the very difficult context of 2010: the year revenues of the world yesterday finally showed their ineffectiveness to control the global systemic crisis. |
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