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Unemployment Projections Through 2020 - It Looks Grim

 
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 566027
Netherlands
12/09/2009 05:14 AM
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Unemployment Projections Through 2020 - It Looks Grim
Unemployment above 10% likely for a long time.
- Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 - It Looks Grim

The economic outlook going into the end of the year here, is not looking good for 2010. We can say that we did a decent job of leveling out in 2009, with the markets up and all. Yet, job losses continue. And as we see here, even IF we have 150,000 per month job gains, un-employment will still top 10% for years to come. Here is just a small part of the in-depth research from the article title, "Mish Unemployment Projections Through 2020 - It Looks Grim";

Assumptions (near term)

* Job losses are likely to continue for a minimum of another year.
* When job gains start, they will be very slow at first, then pick up.
* An extremely generous monthly job gain stat over the course of the year would be 150,000 jobs.
* A falling participation rate will continue to mask reported unemployment.
* Starting in 2013 the labor pool will start decreasing because of boomer demographics.
* The noninstitutional population will rise by 2.5 million workers a year

Extremely Generous Assumptions (Longer term)

* I am assuming there will be job gains (on average) in 2010 even though history suggests otherwise.
* I have the number of jobs gained per month increasing to 170,000 jobs per month for 2013 even though I think 150,000 is a more realistic maximum target for an entire year.
* I have +150,000 jobs for 4 consecutive years through 2016.
* I have the Labor Pool decreasing dramatically as a result of boomer demographics starting in 2014.This acts to lower the unemployment rate.
* I have the participation rate falling every year, accelerating rapidly starting in 2014 all the way through 2020.

The Scenario - near 10% unemployment outwards to 2020 (chart):

Source: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"I was going to map a scenario number 2 that includes a double dip recession but I do not want to frighten everyone to death.

Bear in mind that I think a double dip recession is very likely. Alternatively, we just ramble along for years. Moreover, even if we do not have a double dip, the odds of a second recession at some point the coming decade has to be amazingly high.

We cannot run $trillion deficits every year forever. It just won't work. And as soon as the Fed steps off the gas and/or Congress steps off the stimulus we will see this recovery for the hot air it really is." Article continues and MUCH more detail from Mitch here...

[link to newsusa.myfeedportal.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 836857
China
12/09/2009 05:45 AM
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Re: Unemployment Projections Through 2020 - It Looks Grim
Mish is such the pessimist.

I see full employment by the end of 2012, as what few remaining humans there are - are all gainfully employed scratching out a bare living.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 566027
Netherlands
12/09/2009 06:58 AM
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Re: Unemployment Projections Through 2020 - It Looks Grim
Mish is such the pessimist.

I see full employment by the end of 2012, as what few remaining humans there are - are all gainfully employed scratching out a bare living.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 836857


That's kinda irony, but heck, may be what happens. "Meaningful work."

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