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Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play

 
D. BunkerModerator
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01/21/2010 05:30 PM

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Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
I will go on record as expecting a regional war in the Middle East this year. My belief is it will be contained to Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel and possibly Syria. I do not expect Iran to directly participate, but is certainly planning to support their proxy participants via munitions.

I have predicted this before and will admit my ability to predict Hezbollah's plans has been poor recently. As to how this conflict will start depends on which chooses to initiate hostilities.

If Israel chooses preemption, look for the focus to begin with Hamas in terms of containment before moving to the Northern border.

If Hezbollah and Hamas choose to initiate, they will do so with little to no warning.

The timing for such a conflict is the most difficult; however, both sides would benefit from the mobility that a summer campaign would provide. Israel may maximize their advantages with an early spring attack, while Hezbollah would likely maximize theirs with a late Summer engagement.

I would expect the ramifications to be more extreme for all parties than the war in 2006.

Last Edited by D. Bunker on 01/30/2011 01:39 PM
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2010 05:33 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
You may very well be correct. We'll see if they can contain it to just the players you mentioned.
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2010 05:34 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
boring
Avian

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01/21/2010 05:35 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
if you wanted to get a wood stove...now would be the time...tick tock
"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."
- Frédéric Bastiat

food, water, ammo, weapons, battery back up solar, hand well pump, wood stove and 1 year of food...oh yeah PM's too...good luck
Prepubescent God

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01/21/2010 05:39 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Doesn't matter, nothing done there will truly effect us. If we wanted we could be completely self reliant.

Sadly self reliance doesn't make the big bucks.

Just leave the sand people to themselves, we shouldn't have gone there anyways.
D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/21/2010 05:43 PM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Doesn't matter, nothing done there will truly effect us. If we wanted we could be completely self reliant.

Sadly self reliance doesn't make the big bucks.

Just leave the sand people to themselves, we shouldn't have gone there anyways.
 Quoting: Prepubescent God


The balance of power within the region does effect the flow of oil and other important resources as one of the most important sea lanes. I disagree, it will matter who wins such an exchange.
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
ZTE

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01/21/2010 05:44 PM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
I don't think Iran could sit still if Israel attacks (or is attacked).
If you can justify killing one man, you can justify killing every man.

The Greatest Lie is the one never told, but assumed.

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D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/21/2010 05:46 PM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
I don't think Iran could sit still if Israel attacks (or is attacked).
 Quoting: ZTE


Of course they could. In my opinion, Iran would be best served to allow their proxies to engage Israel and first see how best to exploit that outcome before approaching what could become the end game.
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2010 05:48 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Hezbollah isn't a country, but pretty much runs Lebanon these days. You think that's the battlefield?
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2010 05:48 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
I saw another thread yesterday in which the OP claimed to have inside info that Israel was planning new incursions into Gaza and Lebanon in March.
Ragman
Fuk it ........ Were doomed!!!!!!

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01/21/2010 05:50 PM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
spock
D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/21/2010 05:55 PM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Hezbollah isn't a country, but pretty much runs Lebanon these days. You think that's the battlefield?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 373696


Hezbollah liquidation will be the main objective of any Israel operational plan. If done properly it will require 4-5 weeks to accomplish, but the toll exacted could be considerable.

At issue is really the timing. Israel would benefit from waiting a couple of more years, but I doubt Hezbollah will oblige waiting for them to maximize their advantages.

Hezbollah merely needs to exact a considerable toll and withstand the Israeli assault for sufficient time. The ability to politically sustain an assault of the scale required will become difficult as will financing it.
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2010 05:56 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Doesn't matter, nothing done there will truly effect us. If we wanted we could be completely self reliant.

Sadly self reliance doesn't make the big bucks.

Just leave the sand people to themselves, we shouldn't have gone there anyways.


The balance of power within the region does effect the flow of oil and other important resources as one of the most important sea lanes. I disagree, it will matter who wins such an exchange.
 Quoting: D. Bunker

Real winners:
They have oil,we have food,medicine,other forms of energy, more to come - Tesla's free.../etc.....


.
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2010 06:00 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Hezbollah isn't a country, but pretty much runs Lebanon these days. You think that's the battlefield?


Hezbollah liquidation will be the main objective of any Israel operational plan. If done properly it will require 4-5 weeks to accomplish, but the toll exacted could be considerable.

At issue is really the timing. Israel would benefit from waiting a couple of more years, but I doubt Hezbollah will oblige waiting for them to maximize their advantages.

Hezbollah merely needs to exact a considerable toll and withstand the Israeli assault for sufficient time. The ability to politically sustain an assault of the scale required will become difficult as will financing it.
 Quoting: D. Bunker


Hez, Hamas, Syria, and Iran (supposedly) have some kind of war pact agreement, so that if one gets attacked, the others go in. We'll see if it's a bluff or not.
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2010 06:09 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
tired of 'war'
D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/21/2010 06:11 PM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
tired of 'war'
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 466571


Get used to it.
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
Anonymous Coward
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01/21/2010 06:21 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
tired of 'war'


Get used to it.
 Quoting: D. Bunker

no
D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/21/2010 08:57 PM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
A few articles of interest...

[link to www.analyst-network.com]

[link to www.theaustralian.com.au]

[link to www.upi.com]
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
malu

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01/21/2010 09:05 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
like your new avatar pic


i wonder how turkey will play out in all of this? i also wonder if this will be used as a reason to stop the flow of troops out of iraq? i need to look at a world map, as i also wonder if the slow escalation in pakistan is related
"By way of deception, thou shalt do war."

Israel's Mossad

"The truth shall set you free."

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Motto
D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/22/2010 09:49 AM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
like your new avatar pic


i wonder how turkey will play out in all of this? i also wonder if this will be used as a reason to stop the flow of troops out of iraq? i need to look at a world map, as i also wonder if the slow escalation in pakistan is related
 Quoting: malu


I would not expect Turkey to involve themselves directly nor is there direct linkage to the Wests concerns regarding Pakistan.

This is primarily about Israeli security and/or the Iranian Shia block seizing a perceived opportunity.
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
JADR

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01/22/2010 09:55 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
I will go on record as expecting a regional war in the Middle East this year. My belief is it will be contained to Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel and possibly Syria. I do not expect Iran to directly participate, but is certainly planning to support their proxy participants via munitions.

I have predicted this before and will admit my ability to predict Hezbollah's plans has been poor recently. As to how this conflict will start depends on which chooses to initiate hostilities.

If Israel chooses preemption, look for the focus to begin with Hamas in terms of containment before moving to the Northern border.

If Hezbollah and Hamas choose to initiate, they will do so with little to no warning.

The timing for such a conflict is the most difficult; however, both sides would benefit from the mobility that a summer campaign would provide. Israel may maximize their advantages with an early spring attack, while Hezbollah would likely maximize theirs with a late Summer engagement.

I would expect the ramifications to be more extreme for all parties than the war in 2006.
 Quoting: D. Bunker


Mark my words: By 2011 - Hizbollah will be no more.

Last Edited by JADR on 01/22/2010 09:55 AM
Dear sir, poor sir, brave sir: You are an experiment by the Creator of the Universe. You are the only creature in the entire Universe who has free will. You are the only one who has to figure out what to do next--and why. Everybody else is a robot, a machine.

"MANE – THECEL – PHARES."
D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/22/2010 09:56 AM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Mark my words: By 2011 - Hizbollah will be no more.
 Quoting: JADR


This depends on the strategy and tactics Israel will or will not employ to achieve the desired result.

Last Edited by D. Bunker on 01/22/2010 09:56 AM
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
JADR

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01/22/2010 09:59 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Mark my words: By 2011 - Hizbollah will be no more.


This depends on the strategy and tactics Israel will or will not employ to achieve the desired result.
 Quoting: D. Bunker


Indeed. Israel learned its lesson from 2006 - If there is a war against Hizbollah - no point doing a half job.
Dear sir, poor sir, brave sir: You are an experiment by the Creator of the Universe. You are the only creature in the entire Universe who has free will. You are the only one who has to figure out what to do next--and why. Everybody else is a robot, a machine.

"MANE – THECEL – PHARES."
Anonymous Coward
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01/22/2010 10:41 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
I don't think Iran could sit still if Israel attacks (or is attacked).


Of course they could. In my opinion, Iran would be best served to allow their proxies to engage Israel and first see how best to exploit that outcome before approaching what could become the end game.
 Quoting: D. Bunker


Sure, an argument could be made for that. But the folks making decisions in Iran may not see their priorities the same as you see their priorities. It is still very possible that a madman is in charge there, in which case his actions and decisions are unpredictable.
D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/22/2010 10:44 AM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
I don't think Iran could sit still if Israel attacks (or is attacked).


Of course they could. In my opinion, Iran would be best served to allow their proxies to engage Israel and first see how best to exploit that outcome before approaching what could become the end game.

Sure, an argument could be made for that. But the folks making decisions in Iran may not see their priorities the same as you see their priorities. It is still very possible that a madman is in charge there, in which case his actions and decisions are unpredictable.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 471789


Of course they shall do as they decide to do, but I do not think they are so mad as some seem to think. Being crazy, but not too crazy is a strategy that can be very effective with the West.
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/22/2010 04:15 PM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Tensions rise as Israeli Army stages maneuvers on border
By Elias Sakr
Daily Star staff
Saturday, January 23, 2010


BEIRUT: Media reports said Friday tensions rose on the Lebanese-Israeli border as the Israeli Army undertook military maneuvers on its northern border, while Hizbullah members were put on high alert, according to the pan-Arab daily Ash-Sharq al-Awsat.

Asked whether Hizbullah members were put on high alert, the party’s spokesman Ibrahim Musawi told The Daily Star on Friday that Hizbullah was always ready to face any aggression but declined to elaborate further.

On Thursday, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said that he feared the situation in Iran might prompt officials in Tehran to behave unpredictably, which could prove dangerous given Hizbullah’s weapons, and could lead to unfortunate events.

Kouchner made his statement at Paris following talks with Lebanese Premier Saad Hariri who expressed fear of an Israeli aggression against Lebanon.

As for Kouchner’s stance, Hizbullah issued a statement on Friday “strongly condemning” the minister’s remarks. “We see the clear [influence] of the Israeli voice and a complete disregard of the history and legacy of France in fighting aggression and occupation.”

Hizbullah said there was a contradiction in the remarks of Kouchner and the reports by UNIFIL peacekeeping forces in the south, about Israeli’s near-daily overflights of Lebanon and other acts.

“This stance [by Kouchner] is an attempt to absolve the Israeli enemy [of guilt] and cover its repeated violations of Lebanese sovereignty. This constitutes protection of the Israeli occupier and an encouragement for it to continue with its violations.”

On the Syrian front, Ash-Sharq al-Awsat reported that Syria called on its fourth reserve brigade which includes Syrian workers in Lebanon.

It added that Syrian sources said Damascus was against any war against any Arab country and particularly Lebanon.

However, a high-ranking Israeli military official denied reports stating that Israel was considering launching a war against Lebanon, while stressing that military maneuvers were part of Israel’s routine defensive exercises, Ash-Sharq al-Awsat reported.

The Israeli official reportedly said that Israel had earlier announced that it would undertake the large-scale military maneuvers in 2010 in order to learn from its experience during the 2006 war against Lebanon.

On the domestic front, Minyeh MP Ahmad Fatfat underlined Friday the importance of denying Israel any pretext which could be exploited to launch an aggression against Lebanon. “Repeated Israeli statements concerning an upcoming war do not come out of a vacuum,” said Fatfat, a Future Movement official.

Tackling Kouchner’s statement, Fatfat said the French foreign minister’s stance could be an attempt to highlight the dangerous regional situation.

“Both Hariri and Kouchner’s statements signal that the region is prone to instability and all parties should be alert during the upcoming period, so as not to give Israel any pretext to launch a devastating war against Lebanon,” Fatfat said.

“Perhaps French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner thought it was appropriate to point out dangers based on his political position and relations,” Fatfat added.

Meanwhile, the deputy head of the Higher Shiite Council, Sheikh Abdel-Amir Qabalan, slammed Kouchner’s statement while rejecting “silly donations to the Lebanese Army” by unidentified countries.

[link to www.dailystar.com.lb]
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
ºEATº

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01/22/2010 04:16 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Hi D. Bunka
Coffee in the morning. Tea in the afternoon.
D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/22/2010 04:17 PM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Hi D. Bunka
 Quoting: ºEATº


Hallo EAT.
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
9teen.47™

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01/22/2010 04:22 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
blackcat And hot off the press from Debkafile...

Syria partially mobilizes reserves as tensions rise on Israel's northern border
DEBKAfile Special Report

January 22, 2010, 6:30 PM (GMT+02:00)


Iranian and Syrian defense ministers shake on a military pact
Friday, Jan. 22, Damascus ordered a Level 4 mobilization of Syria's army reserves for deployment to the Golan Heights on the Israeli border, to meet what it calls "IDF plans of attack." DEBKAfile's military sources interpret Level 4 as referring to Syrian armored and commando brigades.

In Lebanon, too, Hizballah has placed "all its forces" on a state of military preparedness. Our intelligence sources report that this order applies to the Iranian proxy's strongholds across southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley, but not to its command posts in Beirut and other Lebanese cities.

Damascus and Hizballah both claim that Israel has embarked on a large-scale military exercise along its northern borders to create a jumping-off point for striking Hizballah followed by raids into Syria.

However, Western and Arab sources confirm that Israel made a point of reassuring Damascus and Beirut via American and UN intermediaries at the beginning of this week that the military units massed in the north were engaged solely in maneuvers with no aggressive intent.

Far from being prompted by IDF war games, Syria and Hizballah are reported by our Iranian and military sources as acting out the secret military cooperation pacts they have just concluded with Tehran. The pacts were negotiated and signed during visits to Damascus by Iran's National Security Adviser Saeed Jalili on Nov. 3 and its defense minister Ahmed Vahidi on Dec. 17.

These treaties commit Syria to come to Hizballah's aid if it comes under Israeli attack, and all three signatories to respond to any Israeli military movement. Our military sources believe Hizballah and Syria are taking advantage of the Israeli war game to test their own preparedness for attack on orders from Tehran.
Zec 12:3 And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it.
Psa 9:17 The wicked shall be turned into hell, [and] all the nations that forget God.
Jer 6:2 I have likened the daughter of Zion to a comely and delicate [woman].
STOCK UP NOW. You should have at least 6 months worth of basics for every member of your household. Stay away from crowds when trouble starts, do not forget water storage, tobacco is worth more than gold or silver, and be kind to hungry children.
D. BunkerModerator (OP)
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01/22/2010 04:26 PM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
I can't get the spiral out of my head....


they are everywhere...


spirals everywhere....


damned
 Quoting: ^TrInItY^


I am mastering some graphic software. I thought it a cute idea.
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
~GAIA~

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01/22/2010 04:30 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Saw on TV today news the tunnels that Hezbollah had build all along the border, inside the villages turning them as a base of any kind of attack.
They are very well armed and have Katyushas ready to be launched pointing at Israel.
Netanyahoo said a couple of days ago, that since they are freely operating inside Lebanese soil and part of the gov, any kind of assault will be responded as a total war aimed to all Lebanon, not only Hezbollah bases.
Any kind of aggression coming from them will start a full war, is what he said.
"Its over. I will always speak to you, and I don't mind if you don't say anything. Just because you went away, it doesn't mean you're not here anymore. Perhaps all I ever needed was this gift, the one you gave to me at the end.
I love you."

My blog... [link to israelitkan.ning.com]
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