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Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play

 
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01/29/2010 09:43 AM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Assuming you mean "Full moon"...but it really doesn't negate that much of advantage because if there was an Arab first strike?...the counter attack would be of ferocity and scope that far supercedes any night fighting which would be far more likely a much more critical part of a limited engagement.


kitty Hi SHR. As far as dates go, it's a bit like predicting when the housing and stock market crashes would be happening back in 2007 and early 2008. We pretty much all knew it was coming, but when...

Basically what I do is look a couple of weeks ahead, or in this case days because I only found out some key stuff yesterday.

Anyway if I'm wrong, then hopefully everyone will soon forget. And in a few weeks time I'll be saying Ohhh there's a Full Moon on Valentines Day and... 1rof1

Which is about the best that you can do really. At least I'm willing to stick my neck out a bit.


No offense of course. I simply think that Hezbollah is unlikely to fight the very kind of war Israel would excel at and thus insure their own annihilation.

They would likely assume a defensive position and utilize guerrilla tactics within the mountain areas while launching rockets for as deep of penetration as they can muster. The plan in my mind would be to draw Israel into a bloody and costly campaign.
 Quoting: D. Bunker

Yup, that is exactly what I think Hezbollah would want too, but I don't think Israel is going to bite at it.

I think Israel learned 2 lessons in 2006.
One, don't get drawn into the sort of conflict you describe. Even with a tank force, they are still going to take a lot of casualties. Like you said, don't fight the enemy on terms that suit THEM best and a Guerilla war that can be drawn out for who knows how long suits Hezbollah and whomever will join in with them, not Israel.
Two, Don't leave the enemy breathing....because they only reconstitute stronger and come back for more.

That's why I think we haven't seen any limited shirmish or partial campaign sort of action from either side...that message has been sent and made clear, next time it's all in and all out war.

I think Hezbollah is considering that, Syria is too, but I really think neither, especially Syria want any part of a full scale war. I don't think they are going to give Israel the license to really beat them both down any more than Israel is going to be suckered into a bloody guerilla war. That seems to me to be a stalemate there.

What I think they are going to do is arm up and leave the call for Israel to make, ball in their court. Hezbollah will exert it's muscle and gain control of Lebanon. Some of that via the political process, but mostly through coercion by force and that is Hezbolla's play, take control of Lebanon. If Israel decides they cannot live with a Hez/Syrian controled Lebanon, more than it is now anyway, which you would know their take on better than me, then Hez/Syria lets Israel make the first move and then has the opportunity to take some deep hard shots at them and has world sentiment and pressure on their side. I don't think the UN or the YSA is going to do much of anything about it either. Hezbollah will play up that they are a viable political party and the rest of the world will back off from taking any real action.

Just saw your latest post and I think exactly the same, if it starts, it's going to be total liquidation of Hezbollah as the objective....and Syria will be on the table too...at least there won't be any safe haven thing there this time.

I think it's all going to boil down to Israel, will they or won't they...it's a big question and one that has far reaching implications.

I dunno...I am thinking Israel won't make the first move and although it sucks for them...and Lebanon...I think they are just going to suck it up...I guess we'll see how things play out.
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D. Bunker  (OP)

01/29/2010 02:59 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
...

I think it's all going to boil down to Israel, will they or won't they...it's a big question and one that has far reaching implications.

I dunno...I am thinking Israel won't make the first move and although it sucks for them...and Lebanon...I think they are just going to suck it up...I guess we'll see how things play out.
 Quoting: SHR


I think all your analysis would be correct with the exception that Israel is not viable long term. In other words, they cannot simply reach a status quo or balance of power that can be sustained perpetually.

There are numerical realities that imply that Israel is ultimately doomed. While a deterrent can be effective now and for several more years if not decades, there is an ultimate cost to inaction. This is at least my view, the longer they wait, the harder the inevitable becomes. Continued inaction means they are accepting the obvious destiny and ultimate assimilation. It depends on how objectionable this appears and what the time-line may be. Much can change in a generation or little. It is a crap shoot.

Given the irreconcilable differences that exist now, prudence suggests to go with the facts as they exist with little hope for a brighter reality later. One may be tempted to play mind games with time lines and alternate realities, but the only reality of significance is the present one. I see little hope in it.

It is of course not up to me, but a matter for the states in question to resolve, one way or another. I am merely an observer.
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D. Bunker  (OP)

01/29/2010 11:49 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Obama aide says Iran may lash out at Israel


The Associated Press
Friday, January 29, 2010; 3:21 PM


WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama's national security adviser is citing a heightened risk that Iran will respond to growing pressure over its nuclear program by stoking violence against Israel.

The adviser, retired Marine Gen. James Jones, said history shows that when regimes are feeling pressure they can lash out through surrogates.

He said that in Iran's case that would mean facilitating attacks on Israel through Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Iran helps arm Hezbollah and Hamas.

Jones also alluded to the prospect of additional international sanctions being applied to Iran as one factor in making Iran feel greater pressure. He said another factor is internal pressure - an apparent reference to street protests against the Iranian leadership over the disputed presidential election last summer.

[link to www.washingtonpost.com]
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01/30/2010 12:10 AM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
...

I think it's all going to boil down to Israel, will they or won't they...it's a big question and one that has far reaching implications.

I dunno...I am thinking Israel won't make the first move and although it sucks for them...and Lebanon...I think they are just going to suck it up...I guess we'll see how things play out.


I think all your analysis would be correct with the exception that Israel is not viable long term. In other words, they cannot simply reach a status quo or balance of power that can be sustained perpetually.

There are numerical realities that imply that Israel is ultimately doomed. While a deterrent can be effective now and for several more years if not decades, there is an ultimate cost to inaction. This is at least my view, the longer they wait, the harder the inevitable becomes. Continued inaction means they are accepting the obvious destiny and ultimate assimilation. It depends on how objectionable this appears and what the time-line may be. Much can change in a generation or little. It is a crap shoot.

Given the irreconcilable differences that exist now, prudence suggests to go with the facts as they exist with little hope for a brighter reality later. One may be tempted to play mind games with time lines and alternate realities, but the only reality of significance is the present one. I see little hope in it.

It is of course not up to me, but a matter for the states in question to resolve, one way or another. I am merely an observer.
 Quoting: D. Bunker

DB....you make me think in terms I would not have on my own....I bow to you....
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Ooooh, see the fire is sweepin' Our very streets today...
Burns like a red coal carpet, Mad bulls lost the way...
War, children, it's just a shot away...it's just a shot away....
D. Bunker  (OP)

01/30/2010 12:17 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
DB....you make me think in terms I would not have on my own....I bow to you....
 Quoting: SHR


That is very nice of you to say.
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
D. Bunker  (OP)

01/30/2010 12:12 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Israel will widen any future Lebanon conflict into Syria

Global Research, January 30, 2010
Daily Star


BEIRUT: The Israeli state must take into account Syria’s role in supporting Hizbullah in any future war with the Lebanese group, an Israeli security analyst said on Friday. Renewed hostilities could also see Israel launch a ground invasion of the Bekaa to cut Syrian supply routes to the Shiite group, Jonathan Spyer, senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, wrote in the Jerusalem Post. Hizbullah officials contacted by The Daily Star declined to comment on the story.

“Any future strike at Hizbullah that does not take into account its status as a client of Syria is unlikely to land a decisive blow,” he said, citing a recent report in the British magazine Jane’s Defence Weekly which claimed that Syria had supplied the Shiite group with missiles capable of hitting central Israel.

“The logic of confrontation in Lebanon suggests that Syria may find it hard to avoid direct engagement in a future Israel-Hizbullah clash,” Spyer said. The “point of no return” would be if Damascus provided anti-aircraft devices to Hizbullah to use during Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace.

The analyst also said that “if Israel wants … to strike a real blow against Hizbullah, this implies an Israeli ground incursion into the Bekaa” and areas close to the Syrian border, which allegedly now host most of the group’s military infrastructure.

Tensions between Israel and Lebanon have mounted in recent months, with Beirut accusing Israel of running espionage rings across the country. Earlier this month Tel Aviv blamed Hizbullah for planting 300 kilograms of explosives near the Blue Line border.

Last week Israeli minister without portfolio Yossi Peled said he believed another conflict with Lebanon was “only a matter of time,” prompting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to deny his government was seeking a war.

In a meeting Wednesday with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Israel’s Defense Minister Ehud Barak was quoted by Israeli daily Yediot Ahronot as saying Israel had no “intentions to attack Syria or Lebanon.” Barak has in the past, however, said Israel would not only target Hizbullah but also Lebanon’s government and infrastructure in a future conflict.

During his own meeting with Mubarak on Thursday, Lebanese Prime Minister nevertheless said Beirut took all Israeli threats “seriously.”

“Any threat against Lebanese territory, whether in the south, Bekaa, [the Beirut suburbs of] Dahiyeh or any other region in Lebanon is a threat against all of Lebanon and the Lebanese government,” Hariri told reporters, calling for Arab solidarity to “counter these threats.”

Spyer said that the “ominous statements” by Israeli officials were not intended to announce the arrival of a war but rather to warn Syrian officials “that they should not think their alliance with Hizbullah is cost free.” A report published by Al-Liwaa newspaper last week claimed Lebanon could be dragged into a possible war with Israel as early as March.

The Israeli state launched a devastating 34-day war on Lebanon in July 2006 after Hizbullah members captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. –

[link to www.globalresearch.ca]
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
9teen.47™

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01/30/2010 02:32 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
[“The logic of confrontation in Lebanon suggests that Syria may find it hard to avoid direct engagement in a future Israel-Hizbullah clash,” Spyer said. The “point of no return” would be if Damascus provided anti-aircraft devices to Hizbullah to use during Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace.
 Quoting: D. Bunker


kitty Hi D. Bunker. That was what I had in mind when I was saying about limited local air superiority in a previous post. I reckon they probably already have them on the QT. But will not deploy them until they judge that the time is right.
Zec 12:3 And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it.
Psa 9:17 The wicked shall be turned into hell, [and] all the nations that forget God.
Jer 6:2 I have likened the daughter of Zion to a comely and delicate [woman].
STOCK UP NOW. You should have at least 6 months worth of basics for every member of your household. Stay away from crowds when trouble starts, do not forget water storage, tobacco is worth more than gold or silver, and be kind to hungry children.
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01/30/2010 04:17 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
KJV - ISAIAH 17
17:1 The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from [being] a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.


I also think Iran will remain on the sidelines as Israel removes various threats from their immediate region. It will not be 2006 this time, Israel will seek the permanent removal of Hizbolla as a threat to the Nation as a proxy of Iran. It will be the utter destruction of Damascus that will horrify the world and unite them against Israel. Perhaps during this time they will destroy the Temple Mount

14:2 For I will gather all nations against Jerusalem to battle;
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D. Bunker  (OP)

01/30/2010 09:35 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Yemen Shia rebels make ceasefire offer

Shia rebels in northern Yemen have said they will accept government conditions for a ceasefire - once an army offensive against them has stopped.

Rebel leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said he was willing to accept the conditions to avoid civilian casualties and called on the Yemeni government to respond.

Several previous ceasefires have broken down, some soon after being agreed.

Read more: [link to news.bbc.co.uk]

Last Edited by D. Bunker on 01/30/2010 09:36 PM
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D. Bunker  (OP)

01/31/2010 12:39 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
'Hezbollah prepared for any surprise'

Sun, 31 Jan 2010 03:09:28 GMT

“Hezbollah is prepared and ready for any surprise. As long as Israel exists in the Middle East region, it poses a considerable threat to the entire region and will try to give the wrong impression about Iran's civilian nuclear program,” the senior Hezbollah official said in Beirut on Saturday.

Qassem added that the Hezbollah resistance movement is greatly indebted to Iran for its many triumphs and regards such achievements to be the result of the practical guidelines of Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and Hezbollah Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Israel has not achieved its goal of ending Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon, and the Islamic resistance movement claimed victory in the 1996, 2000, and 2006 wars with Tel Aviv.

On January 2, the Hamas movement's political representative in Lebanon, Ali Baraka, said the Palestinian resistance group will fight alongside the Hezbollah movement should Israel launch a new offensive against Lebanon.

"We are guests in Lebanon and our policy will not change," Baraka said during a memorial service to mark one week passing since the death of two Hamas members in an explosion in Beirut's southern suburbs on December 26.

"However, we are committed to resisting Israeli occupation forces," he added.

"Israel should know that if it launches a new attack against Lebanon, we will not stand handcuffed. We will face the aggression side by side with our brethren in Lebanon — be they the resistance, the army, or the people, to repel the aggression," Baraka asserted.

[link to www.presstv.ir]
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
9teen.47™

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01/31/2010 02:56 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
US speeds up its own and Gulf allies' preparations for clash with Iran


DEBKAfile Special Report January 31, 2010, 12:27 AM (GMT+02:00)

The Obama administration took the unusual step Saturday night, Jan. 30, of leaking word to major US media that the United States, Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies - the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain - have accelerated the deployment of new defenses against possible Iranian missile attacks. They are preparing for Iran, or its surrogate Hizballah, to hit back for a possible US or strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities.
debkafile's US military sources confirm that Washington plans to treble the 10,000-strong US troop contingent, already present in Saudi Arabia for guarding its oil fields and port facilities against medium or short-range Iranian missile attack, or sabotage by Hizballah marine units trained for their mission by Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Additional US Aegis missile interceptor cruisers with advanced radar and anti-missile systems were also reported to be heading for round-the-clock patrol around Iranian shores, with more Patriot anti-missile missiles to reinforce the eight batteries already deployed in the four emirates.
The Obama administration set these exceptional steps in motion, debkafile reports, in anticipation of nuclear provocations from Tehran while the regime celebrates the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution from Feb.1-11.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has promised to announce Iran's attainment of a 20 percent uranium enrichment capability, a short step to weapons grade material.

Some high-ranking Revolutionary Guards officers have also said that Iran will parade a new type of surface missile during the celebrations, without revealing its features, while Iranian space scientists predicted the launch of a new spy satellite of the Toloo series.
All this was taken in Washington as a challenge that could not be left without an appropriate response. Administration officials also feared that Israel might be goaded into going forward with a military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities. The Gulf Arab states were in need of reassurance too.
The White House's decision to deploy additional defenses in the Gulf came only a day after National Security Adviser James Jones warned that Iran was liable to react to pressure by having its proxies Hizballah and Hamas attack Israel. The abruptness of this step pointed to the administration having woken up to the realization that its diplomatic and military position in the region was in grave jeopardy and in dire need of shoring up without delay.

[link to www.debka.com]

Last Edited by 9teen.47™ on 01/31/2010 02:57 AM
Zec 12:3 And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it.
Psa 9:17 The wicked shall be turned into hell, [and] all the nations that forget God.
Jer 6:2 I have likened the daughter of Zion to a comely and delicate [woman].
STOCK UP NOW. You should have at least 6 months worth of basics for every member of your household. Stay away from crowds when trouble starts, do not forget water storage, tobacco is worth more than gold or silver, and be kind to hungry children.
D. Bunker  (OP)

01/31/2010 09:35 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Iran opposition leaders call for protests

(CNN) -- Two top Iranian opposition leaders have called on supporters to protest on February 11, the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, an opposition Web site reported.

According to The Green Way Web site, a meeting took place Saturday between opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Moussavi at Karroubi's home.

They discussed the two executions that happened last week and the cases of 16 protesters who went on trial Saturday, the site reported.

"The widespread arrests of political activists and university students, the silencing of the media, and the forced confessions of prisoners are against the principles of Islam and the constitution of Iran," the leaders said in a statement.

They also called for people to take to the streets on February 11 to demand their rights back as citizens of Iran, The Green Way reported.

Opposition protests were launched after the disputed June 12 presidential election that gave hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a second term. The government denies accusations of fraud.

About 4,000 people have been arrested in the post-election crackdown. As of January 24, the government had confirmed the deaths of at least 37 people in the protests or in detention, seven of those deaths happening on the religious holiday of Ashura.

On Thursday, authorities hanged Mohammed Reza Ali Zamani, 37, and Arash Rahmanipour, 20, who had been convicted of being enemies of God and plotting to topple the Islamic regime.

The two were convicted in mass trials of opposition supporters in August, but Rahmanipour's lawyer said the young man was arrested two months before the election.

[link to edition.cnn.com]

Last Edited by D. Bunker on 01/31/2010 09:36 PM
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
9teen.47™

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02/01/2010 06:52 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
US intelligence finds 5,000 Hizballah trained to seize Galilee towns ISRAELI-ARABS PLAN TO STAB ISRAEL IN THE BACK

kitty Please note that there is a particularly good map that was drawn especially for this article. [link to www.debka.com]

DEBKAfile Special Expose February 1, 2010, 9:19 AM (GMT+02:00)Tags: Hamas Hizballah Iran Israel Syria US intelligence

Click on the picture to get enlarged mapJones was not talking out of the top of his head, but on the strength of solid US intelligence gathered over months on detailed war plans Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas have drawn up to send five Hizballah brigades sweeping across the border to seize five sectors of Galilee, while also organizing a massive Israeli-Arab uprising against the Jewish state.
Hamas would open a second front in the south and in the east. Syria is expected to step in at some stage.
This plan with attached special map was first published exclusively by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 430 on Jan. 22, 2010. Key excerpts appear here.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards instructors at especially established training facilities near Tehran are already well advanced in training a cadre of 5,000 Hizballah fighters in special operations and urban combat tactics to standards equivalent to those current in similar US and Israeli military forces.

At the outset of the course, the group was split up into five battalions, each given a specific northern Israeli sector for capture with details of its topography and population for close study.
(See attached map).

1st Battalion:
This unit will break through the Naqura-Rosh Haniqra border pass and sweep south along seven kilometers to seize Nahariya, the Israeli Mediterranean city of 55,000 - or parts thereof.
UN peacekeepers have their headquarters at Naqura, the other side of Rosh Haniqra, and Israel defenses there are lax, so no military or geographic obstacles to this Hizballah drive are anticipated. This battalion will capture a large number of Israeli hostages for use as live shields against an Israeli counter-attack
A small group of 150 fighters, trained by Revolutionary Guards marines, will also try and reach the coast by swift boats. They are already standing by in Lebanon.

2nd Battalion:

This unit is assigned to capture the northern Israeli town of Shlomi, 300 meters southeast of the Naqura border pass and home to 6,500 inhabitants. Holding this town and its environs will give Hizballah control of a key road hub and stand in the path of Israeli reinforcements heading for Nahariya through routes 89 and 899 from key Israeli bases in the Galilee and Upper Galilee regions to the east. (See map).

3rd Battalion:

Driving further south than any other Hizballah unit, this battalion must reach the three Israeli-Arab villages of B'ina, Deir al-Asad and Majd el-Krum, which are located north of the town of Carmiel and alongside Israel's Route 85 which connects Acre on the Mediterranean with Safad in the central Galilee mountains.

Iranian war planners want Hizballah to control the three Israeli-Arab locations for two advantages:

One: As a commanding position for stirring up the disaffected Israeli-Arab villages and towns of Lower Galilee and Wadi Ara to the south into a full-blown uprising. The incoming combat force will be backed up by clandestine Hizballah cells which for some years have established, armed and funded the underground "Galilee Liberation Battalions” in Sakhnin, Araba and Deir Hana, by means of drug smugglers.

Hizballah's West Bank cells have been active for some time in the Wadi Ara region, through which National Route 65 connects central Israel to the North.
Two: To gain fire control of Acre-Safed Route 85 from positions in occupied Arab villages and so have a shield ready for the Hizballah units holding Nahariya and Shlomi, and seriously impede the passage of Israeli forces from bases in the center of the country to relieve these northern towns. The Israeli Air Force will be constrained from attacking the areas held by Hizballah by the presence of large civilian populations.

4th Battalion:
This battalion will push southeast into the Kadesh Valley, on the rim of which the Makia and Yiftah kibbutzim and Makia moshav are clustered. Capture of these locations would afford Hizballah fire coverage of Israel's northernmost Galilee Panhandle.

5th Battalion: Hizballah's Strategic Reserve.

Rocket attacks from Lebanon will focus on disabling Israel's strategic military sites, such as air force bases, missile bases, its nuclear facilities and naval bases. Targeting Israeli population centers is a lower Iranian priority.
Syria's initial involvement will be limited to cover by artillery or air for Hizballah operations. But if the fighting escalates or drags on, Hizballah will invite Syrian back-up forces to go into Lebanon; Damascus will open Front No. 4 against Israel from the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.

The Tehran-Hizballah war strategy is all but ready for any contingency. The obvious trigger would be an Israeli military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities, but once all the elements are in place, they could be activated by any other pretext conjured up in Tehran or Damascus.

In recent weeks, both Hizballah and its Syrian allies have mobilized their forces while telling the Arab world that the Jewish state is about to attack Lebanon.
Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah is straining at the leash to attack Israel however the crisis over Iran's nuclear program turns out.
Sunday, January 17, he said: "I promise you, in view of all the threats you hear today… that should a new war with the Zionists erupt, we [the Lebanese resistance movement] will crush the enemy, come out victorious, and change the face of the region.

"God willing, Israel, the occupation, hegemony, and arrogance are in the process of disappearing!"

Nasrallah was not alone in anticipating a troubled year for the Middle East.

Last Edited by 9teen.47™ on 02/01/2010 12:21 PM
Zec 12:3 And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it.
Psa 9:17 The wicked shall be turned into hell, [and] all the nations that forget God.
Jer 6:2 I have likened the daughter of Zion to a comely and delicate [woman].
STOCK UP NOW. You should have at least 6 months worth of basics for every member of your household. Stay away from crowds when trouble starts, do not forget water storage, tobacco is worth more than gold or silver, and be kind to hungry children.
D. Bunker  (OP)

02/01/2010 11:57 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
kitty Please note that there is a particularly good map that was drawn especially for this article. [link to www.debka.com]

DEBKAfile Special Expose February 1, 2010, 9:19 AM (GMT+02:00)Tags: Hamas Hizballah Iran Israel Syria US intelligence

Click on the picture to get enlarged mapJones was not talking out of the top of his head, but on the strength of solid US intelligence gathered over months on detailed war plans Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas have drawn up to send five Hizballah brigades sweeping across the border to seize five sectors of Galilee, while also organizing a massive Israeli-Arab uprising against the Jewish state.
Hamas would open a second front in the south and in the east. Syria is expected to step in at some stage.
This plan with attached special map was first published exclusively by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 430 on Jan. 22, 2010. Key excerpts appear here.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards instructors at especially established training facilities near Tehran are already well advanced in training a cadre of 5,000 Hizballah fighters in special operations and urban combat tactics to standards equivalent to those current in similar US and Israeli military forces.

At the outset of the course, the group was split up into five battalions, each given a specific northern Israeli sector for capture with details of its topography and population for close study.
(See attached map).

1st Battalion:
This unit will break through the Naqura-Rosh Haniqra border pass and sweep south along seven kilometers to seize Nahariya, the Israeli Mediterranean city of 55,000 - or parts thereof.
UN peacekeepers have their headquarters at Naqura, the other side of Rosh Haniqra, and Israel defenses there are lax, so no military or geographic obstacles to this Hizballah drive are anticipated. This battalion will capture a large number of Israeli hostages for use as live shields against an Israeli counter-attack
A small group of 150 fighters, trained by Revolutionary Guards marines, will also try and reach the coast by swift boats. They are already standing by in Lebanon.

2nd Battalion:

This unit is assigned to capture the northern Israeli town of Shlomi, 300 meters southeast of the Naqura border pass and home to 6,500 inhabitants. Holding this town and its environs will give Hizballah control of a key road hub and stand in the path of Israeli reinforcements heading for Nahariya through routes 89 and 899 from key Israeli bases in the Galilee and Upper Galilee regions to the east. (See map).

3rd Battalion:

Driving further south than any other Hizballah unit, this battalion must reach the three Israeli-Arab villages of B'ina, Deir al-Asad and Majd el-Krum, which are located north of the town of Carmiel and alongside Israel's Route 85 which connects Acre on the Mediterranean with Safad in the central Galilee mountains.

Iranian war planners want Hizballah to control the three Israeli-Arab locations for two advantages:

One: As a commanding position for stirring up the disaffected Israeli-Arab villages and towns of Lower Galilee and Wadi Ara to the south into a full-blown uprising. The incoming combat force will be backed up by clandestine Hizballah cells which for some years have established, armed and funded the underground "Galilee Liberation Battalions” in Sakhnin, Araba and Deir Hana, by means of drug smugglers.

Hizballah's West Bank cells have been active for some time in the Wadi Ara region, through which National Route 65 connects central Israel to the North.
Two: To gain fire control of Acre-Safed Route 85 from positions in occupied Arab villages and so have a shield ready for the Hizballah units holding Nahariya and Shlomi, and seriously impede the passage of Israeli forces from bases in the center of the country to relieve these northern towns. The Israeli Air Force will be constrained from attacking the areas held by Hizballah by the presence of large civilian populations.

4th Battalion:
This battalion will push southeast into the Kadesh Valley, on the rim of which the Makia and Yiftah kibbutzim and Makia moshav are clustered. Capture of these locations would afford Hizballah fire coverage of Israel's northernmost Galilee Panhandle.

5th Battalion: Hizballah's Strategic Reserve.

Rocket attacks from Lebanon will focus on disabling Israel's strategic military sites, such as air force bases, missile bases, its nuclear facilities and naval bases. Targeting Israeli population centers is a lower Iranian priority.
Syria's initial involvement will be limited to cover by artillery or air for Hizballah operations. But if the fighting escalates or drags on, Hizballah will invite Syrian back-up forces to go into Lebanon; Damascus will open Front No. 4 against Israel from the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.

The Tehran-Hizballah war strategy is all but ready for any contingency. The obvious trigger would be an Israeli military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities, but once all the elements are in place, they could be activated by any other pretext conjured up in Tehran or Damascus.

In recent weeks, both Hizballah and its Syrian allies have mobilized their forces while telling the Arab world that the Jewish state is about to attack Lebanon.
Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah is straining at the leash to attack Israel however the crisis over Iran's nuclear program turns out.
Sunday, January 17, he said: "I promise you, in view of all the threats you hear today… that should a new war with the Zionists erupt, we [the Lebanese resistance movement] will crush the enemy, come out victorious, and change the face of the region.

"God willing, Israel, the occupation, hegemony, and arrogance are in the process of disappearing!"

Nasrallah was not alone in anticipating a troubled year for the Middle East.
 Quoting: 9teen.47™


It is a bold and daring plan, but I do not think they can sustain it. The element of surprise has been gone since November when it became clear and they lack the necessary level of force. The retaliatory blows alone would be decisive.

With this said, any form of successful cross border campaign against the IDF would embolden further such campaigns. It requires only patience and resolve to build the confidence that Israel is not unbeatable. This alone may make the effort worthwhile in the eyes of the Hezbollah and Hamas.
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9teen.47™

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02/01/2010 12:34 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Nasrallah was not alone in anticipating a troubled year for the Middle East.


It is a bold and daring plan, but I do not think they can sustain it. The element of surprise has been gone since November when it became clear and they lack the necessary level of force. The retaliatory blows alone would be decisive.

With this said, any form of successful cross border campaign against the IDF would embolden further such campaigns. It requires only patience and resolve to build the confidence that Israel is not unbeatable. This alone may make the effort worthwhile in the eyes of the Hezbollah and Hamas.
 Quoting: D. Bunker


US intelligence finds 5,000 Hizballah trained to seize Galilee towns ISRAELI-ARABS PLAN TO STAB ISRAEL IN THE BACK

verycold Hi D.Bunker. Sorry I just noticed that I forgot to put the title of the article in my last post. I agree with you that if it was just Hezbollah, Israel could crush them like a fly. But I think that this will be a "catalyst" so to speak for much bigger things.

Another thing is that I've just realised that it's more than a Debkafile article. Because this is what US Intelligence is saying. So people cannot just say: "Oh it's only the Jews getting worked up again."

Lets put it this way, I'll be spending a bit more than usual in the Supermarket tomorrow.
Zec 12:3 And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it.
Psa 9:17 The wicked shall be turned into hell, [and] all the nations that forget God.
Jer 6:2 I have likened the daughter of Zion to a comely and delicate [woman].
STOCK UP NOW. You should have at least 6 months worth of basics for every member of your household. Stay away from crowds when trouble starts, do not forget water storage, tobacco is worth more than gold or silver, and be kind to hungry children.
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02/01/2010 12:48 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Nasrallah was not alone in anticipating a troubled year for the Middle East.


It is a bold and daring plan, but I do not think they can sustain it. The element of surprise has been gone since November when it became clear and they lack the necessary level of force. The retaliatory blows alone would be decisive.

With this said, any form of successful cross border campaign against the IDF would embolden further such campaigns. It requires only patience and resolve to build the confidence that Israel is not unbeatable. This alone may make the effort worthwhile in the eyes of the Hezbollah and Hamas.


US intelligence finds 5,000 Hizballah trained to seize Galilee towns ISRAELI-ARABS PLAN TO STAB ISRAEL IN THE BACK

verycold Hi D.Bunker. Sorry I just noticed that I forgot to put the title of the article in my last post. I agree with you that if it was just Hezbollah, Israel could crush them like a fly. But I think that this will be a "catalyst" so to speak for much bigger things.

Another thing is that I've just realised that it's more than a Debkafile article. Because this is what US Intelligence is saying. So people cannot just say: "Oh it's only the Jews getting worked up again."

Lets put it this way, I'll be spending a bit more than usual in the Supermarket tomorrow.
 Quoting: 9teen.47™


Yes, indeed, there is actionable intelligence present. Whether Hezbollah/Hamas seek to go through with it or simply goad Israel into an expensive deployment remains to be seen. I have lost my sense of Hezbollah's thought process in recent years.

If they truly hope for Jordan and Egypt to join such an attack, then the planning must include elimination of King Hussein and Mubarak or have effects lowering the risk to Egypt and Jordan. It is hard to imagine a scenario where Israel is crippled in such a way to make such tempting to the rational strategist.
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02/01/2010 01:15 PM
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Barak: Without Syria peace, we could be headed for all-out war

By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Israel News, Israel Syria



Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned Monday that the stalled peace process with Syria could augur ill for the future of the Middle East.

"In the absence of an arrangement with Syria, we are liable to enter a belligerent clash with it that could reach the point of an all-out, regional war," Barak told senior Israel Defense Forces officers on Monday.

"Just like the familiar reality in the Middle East, we will immediately sit down [with Syria] after such a war and negotiate on the exact same issues which we are have been discussing with them for the last 15 years," the defense minister said.

"A political arrangement is not the dream come true of the other side," Barak added. "This will be a choice of no choice. If the other side believes that it is possible to bring down Israel, to wage a battle of attrition against it, or lure it into a honey trap, then it will prefer to do so."

The defense minister has long called for a resumption of peace talks with Damascus, yet his warning of a regional war is significant in that it is uncharacteristically sharp and strident.

Barak said Israel's response to the Goldstone Report, which it submitted to the United Nations on Friday, was "very important."

"UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon was very impressed with the presentation given to the UN by the Military Advocate General, and he even said so to me in private," Barak said. "It would be a mistake to establish a commission of inquiry over the Goldstone Report."

"There is no other army in the world that has probing and investigative guidelines like that of the IDF, and whoever would like to can check whether the government instructions to the IDF senior command stands up to norms and to international law," the defense minister said. "I have no doubt that both of these answers are in the affirmative."

As for Iran, Barak said the Islamic republic poses a threat to world peace and that, from Israel's standpoint, all options remain on the table. "The United States is supposed to lead the international drive for sanctions beginning next month," the defense minister said. "The Americans' chances for enlisting the Chinese and others in sanctions are not great given the recent events in China and the U.S."

[link to www.haaretz.com]
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9teen.47™

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02/01/2010 01:39 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
kitty I just found a really good video of America's intelligence gathering capabilities. There is all sorts of stuff in this one, and it has over 207,000 views.


Zec 12:3 And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it.
Psa 9:17 The wicked shall be turned into hell, [and] all the nations that forget God.
Jer 6:2 I have likened the daughter of Zion to a comely and delicate [woman].
STOCK UP NOW. You should have at least 6 months worth of basics for every member of your household. Stay away from crowds when trouble starts, do not forget water storage, tobacco is worth more than gold or silver, and be kind to hungry children.
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02/01/2010 05:54 PM
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Terror Alert: Let us protect UNIFIL, and fast
By Bilal Y. Saab and Magnus Ranstorp

Monday, February 01, 2010

Perspective By Bilal Y. Saab and Magnus Ranstorp

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is at serious risk of another terrorist attack by Al-Qaeda and it needs immediate protection. This time, the potential harm that Al-Qaeda in Lebanon could inflict on the multinational peacekeeping force could be significant as the terrorist organization has recently been able to adjust, reorganize, and plan for a deadly operation. If Al-Qaeda succeeds in bleeding UNIFIL, this will undoubtedly push some of its member states to withdraw their troops, which by default would undermine the mission of the Force altogether and ultimately cause its dissolution.

While the global counter-terrorism community seems understandably focused on the terror problems in Yemen and Somalia, it cannot afford to brush aside Al-Qaeda’s reach in another strategically vital part of the world: Israel-Lebanon. Make no mistake about it, if UNIFIL suffers another terrorist hit and starts crumbling as a result, the task of averting another devastating war between Israel and Hizbullah (which this time could be much more destructive and could involve other foreign powers) becomes nearly impossible. Middle East stability, not just calm on the Israeli-Lebanese borders, is at stake here.

The terrorist threat to UNIFIL (and Lebanon) has drastically changed since the events of Nahr al-Bared in 2007, and here is why we believe it has become much more dangerous and imminent. Since its deployment in southern Lebanon following the 34-day war between Israel and Hizbullah in summer 2006, the expanded multinational force (now has 12,133 uniformed personnel) has had to deal with an emerging threat posed by Al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda’s second in command Ayman al-Zawahri has had his eyes on the multinational troops the day they set foot in the southern part of the country. His three messages (so far) have been clear, and his directions even clearer: wage armed jihad against the “crusader” troops in the South and force them to withdraw from “Muslim lands.”

Zawahri’s calls did not fall on deaf ears. One June 24, 2007, three Spanish and three Columbian UN soldiers were killed when a bomb destroyed their armored troop carrier. A month later, another bomb exploded near a UNIFIL position, luckily causing no casualties. Then on January 8, 2008, two members of the Irish contingent were wounded when their vehicle was hit by a roadside bomb near Rmaileh village, 35 kilometers south of Beirut. In addition to these direct hits (and many others that were not reported), Al-Qaeda’s fighters have regularly launched rockets from southern Lebanon into northern Israel (so far on seven separate occasions, the most recent of which attempt to ignite another war between Hezbollah and Israel with UNIFIL in between, killing in what Al-Qaeda’s calculations would be three birds with one stone: “the infidel Shiite party,” the “Zionist entity,” and the “crusader army.” Fortunately, Hizbullah and Israel did not fall into Al-Qaeda’s trap, exercising wise judgment and restraint at every incident.

However, with rumors of renewed conflict widely circulating in the media these days, cooler heads may no longer prevail next time another mysterious rocket lands in a northern Israeli town.

The numbers of foiled Al-Qaeda plots against UNIFIL and arrests of terrorist cells by the Lebanese military intelligence services have also been staggering. Ever since the Lebanese Army crushed Fatah al-Islam (the Al-Qaeda-inspired group) in summer 2007 and the Lebanese military intelligence services have been working day and night on combating the terror threat. Having conducted extensive field research on the subject of Al-Qaeda in Lebanon over the past six years, we found no evidence that Al-Qaeda’s senior leadership in Pakistan-Afghanistan has a franchise in the country like in Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and other places around the world. Also, we found no sizable support for the terrorist group’s militant agenda among the Sunni Islamist community (including the doctrinally rigid but nonviolent salafis). Al-Qaeda’s extremist ideology is also shunned by the majority of Lebanese Sunni Muslims. All these factors and others explain why Al-Qaeda’s attempts to create an overt insurgent group in the country on New Year’s Eve in 1999-2000 and in summer 2007 failed miserably. Realizing that Lebanon is not a fertile ground for establishing a solid insurgent base, Al-Qaeda adjusted and opted to go underground. Instead of helping form insurgent groups, Al-Qaeda in Pakistan-Afghanistan is now working, with the help of its franchises in Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula, on creating sleeper cells in Lebanon that would be in charge of recruiting, training, and planning operations against Western and Israeli targets, in addition to attacking UNIFIL. These terrorist cells, some of which are remnants of Fatah al-Islam while others continue to arrive from several regional battlefronts, are scattered across the country but with heavy concentration in its northern region, specifically in places like Tripoli, Akkar, Qaroun, Majdar Anjar, and al Koura (there are also some pockets in the Bekaa Valley and around the Palestinian camps in the southern suburbs of Beirut). Today, there exists a dangerous terrorist axis that links, by land and sea, these northern areas to the Palestinian refugee camp of Ein al-Hilweh in the southern city of Sidon, where arguably most major terrorist planning and coordination takes place.

Under-funded, poorly equipped, and largely inexperienced in the counter-terrorism business, the Lebanese military intelligence services have surprisingly done a superb job in making life difficult for Al-Qaeda in the country. However, despite their commendable effort, the threat is now too big for a tiny country like Lebanon to handle on its own. The Lebanese government has a legal responsibility to protect UNIFIL but it cannot do this crucial job alone. What is needed is a concerted effort by nations that are contributing troops to UNIFIL and by those countries that have a vested interest in preserving the fragile calm along the Lebanese-Israeli borders to provide immediate technical and financial assistance to the Lebanese security and counter-terrorism apparatus, specifically to the military intelligence services.

Washington has a strong interest in leading this effort for three important reasons: one, uphold Lebanese stability and help the country in its campaign against salafi jihadism; two, safeguard UNIFIL so that it can do its critical job of keeping the Israeli-Lebanese peace, and three, protect its close ally Israel from further attacks by Al-Qaeda elements in southern Lebanon.

There is no question that Al-Qaeda in Lebanon is a real danger to the country in general and to UNIFIL in particular. The safety of the Force is of utmost importance to the security of Lebanon and the entire region. While Israeli and Hizbullah officials often complain about UNIFIL, in private, they do appreciate its important deterrent role.

Indeed, the truth of the matter is that UNIFIL is the only thing standing in the way of another large-scale military conflict in the Middle East. Let us help Lebanon better protect it from Al-Qaeda before it is too late.

[link to www.dailystar.com.lb]

Last Edited by D. Bunker on 02/01/2010 05:54 PM
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02/02/2010 09:27 AM
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Gaza and Lebanon: On Brink of Israeli War?

The Survival of Israel's Iron Wall

By Ramzy Baroud


The Israeli military may be much less effective in winning wars than it was in the past, thanks to the stiffness of the Arab resistance. However, its military strategists are as shrewd and unpredictable as ever.

The recent rhetoric that has escalated from Israel suggests that a future war with Lebanon will most likely target Syria as well. While this does not necessarily mean that Israel actually intends to target either of these countries in the near future, it is certainly the type or language that often precedes Israeli military maneuvers.

Deciphering the available clues regarding the nature of Israel's immediate military objectives is not always easy, but it is possible.

Possible Indicators

One indicator that could serve as a foundation for any serious prediction of Israel's actions is Israel's historical tendency to seek a perpetual state of war. Peace, real peace, has never been a long-term policy.

"Unlike many others, I consider that peace is not a goal in itself, but only a means to guarantee our existence," claimed Yossi Peled, a former army general and a current cabinet minister in Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing government.

Israeli official policy — military or otherwise— is governed by the same Zionist diktats that long preceded the establishment of the state of Israel. If anything has changed since early Zionists outlined their vision, it was the interpretation of those directives. The substance has remained intact.

For example, Zionist visionary, Vladimir Jabotinsky stated in 1923 that the Zionist "colonization can… continue and develop only under the protection of a force independent of the local population — an iron wall which the native population cannot break through."

He was not then referring to an actual wall. While his vision took on various manifestations throughout the years, in 2002 it was translated into a real wall aimed at prejudicing any just solution with the Palestinians.

Recently, unfortunately, Egypt has started building its own steel wall along its border with the war-devastated and impoverished Gaza Strip.

One thing we all know by now is that Israel is a highly militarized country. Its definition of "existence" could only be ensured by its uncontested military dominance at all fronts.

Thus, the devastating link between Palestine and Lebanon makes any analysis of Israel's military intents in Gaza — that excludes Lebanon and Syria — is seriously incomplete.

Consider, for example, the unprecedented Israeli crackdown on the Second Palestinian Uprising that started in September 2000.

How is that linked to Lebanon? Israel had been freshly defeated by the Lebanese resistance, led by Hizbullah, and was forced to end its occupation of most of South Lebanon in May 2000.

Israel wanted to send an unmistakable message to Palestinians that this defeat was in fact not a defeat at all, and that any attempt at duplicating the Lebanese resistance model in Palestine would be ruthlessly suppressed. Israel's exaggeration in the use of its highly sophisticated military to stifle a largely popular revolution was extremely costly to Palestinians in terms of human toll.

Israel's 34-day war on Lebanon in July 2006 was an Israeli attempt at destroying Arab resistance, and restoring its metaphorical iron wall. It backfired, resulting in a real — not figurative — Israeli defeat. Israel, then, did what it does best. It used its superior air force, destroyed much of Lebanon's civilian infrastructure and killed more than 1,200 people, mostly civilians. The resistance, with humble means, killed more than 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers during combat.

Reviving the Iron Wall

Not only did Hizbollah have penetrated the Israeli iron wall, it had also filled it with holes. It challenged, like never before, the Israeli army's notion of invincibility and illusion of security — a something that went horribly wrong in Lebanon.

Since then, the Israeli army, intelligence, propagandists, and politicians have been in constant preparation for another showdown. Nevertheless, before such pending battle, the nation needed to renew its faith in its army and government intelligence; thus, it was the war in Gaza late December 2008.

As appalling as it was for Israeli families to gather en masse near the Israeli-Gaza border, and watch giddily as Gaza and Gazans were blown to smithereens, the act was most rational.

The victims of the war may have been Palestinians in Gaza, but the target audience was Israelis. The brutal and largely one-sided war united Israelis, including their self-proclaimed leftist parties in one rare moment of solidarity. Here was proof that the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) still had enough strength to report military achievements.

Of course, Israel's military strategists knew well that their war crimes in Gaza were a clumsy attempt at regaining national confidence. The tightly-lipped politicians and army generals wanted to give the impression that all was working according to plan. However, the total media blackout, and the orchestrated footage of Israeli soldiers flashing military signs and waving flags on their way back to Israel were clear indications of an attempt to improve a problematic image.

Thus, Yossi Peled's calculated comments on January 23: "In my estimation, understanding, and knowledge, it is almost clear to me that it is a matter of time before there is a military clash in the north." Further, he claimed, "We are heading toward a new confrontation, but I do not know when it will happen, just as we did not know when the second Lebanon war would erupt."

Peled is of course right. There will be a new confrontation. New strategies will be employed. Israel will raise the stakes, and will try to draw Syria in, and push for a regional war. A Lebanon that defines itself based on the terms of resistance — following the failure to politically co-opt Hizbollah — is utterly unacceptable from the Israeli viewpoint.

Peled might be creating a measured distraction from efforts aimed at igniting yet another war — against the besieged resistance in Gaza, or something entirely different.

Hamas' recent announcement that its senior military leader Mahmoud Al- Mabhouh was killed in January in Dubai at the hands of the Israeli intelligence is also an indication of the involved efforts of Israel that goes much further than specific boundaries.

Will it be Gaza or Lebanon first? Israel is sending mixed messages, and deliberately so. Hamas, Hizbollah, and their supporters understand well the Israeli tactic, and they must be preparing for the various possibilities. They know Israel cannot live without its iron walls, and are determined to prevent any more from being built at their expense.

[link to www.islamonline.net]
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02/02/2010 09:36 AM
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Iran Plans to End US Apache's Domination over Battlefields

TEHRAN (FNA)- Iran has designed a new kind of surface-to-air missiles to bring down the United States' much boasted Apache choppers, an Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) official announced on Tuesday.


Colonel Nasser Arab-Beigi, the head of IRGC's Self-Sufficiency Jihad Organization, made the remarks in an exclusive interview with FNA.

"Enemies should not imagine that if their Apache choppers have shown a mighty and desirable performance in Iraq and Afghanistan, they can show the same might and power in a possible aggression against Iran. We will certainly put an end to the power of their Apaches through our measures," Arab-Beigi stressed, without specifying the type of the weapon Iran is manufacturing to shoot down Apache choppers.

Describing IRGC's capabilities in designing and manufacturing anti-armor weapons as surprising, he reiterated "The variety of our measures and weapons is so wide that the enemy cannot even think of them."

The Iranian official further warned Iran's enemies that they would face a crushing response by the Iranian forces in case of any ground attack against the country.

Tehran launched an arms development program during the 1980-88 Iraqi imposed war on Iran to compensate for a US weapons embargo. Since 1992, Iran has produced its own tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles and fighter planes.

Yet, Iranian officials have always stressed that the country's military and arms programs serve defensive purposes and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country.

[link to english.farsnews.com]

Last Edited by D. Bunker on 02/02/2010 09:36 AM
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02/02/2010 09:41 AM
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Iran Plans to End US Apache's Domination over Battlefields

TEHRAN (FNA)- Iran has designed a new kind of surface-to-air missiles to bring down the United States' much boasted Apache choppers, an Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) official announced on Tuesday.


Colonel Nasser Arab-Beigi, the head of IRGC's Self-Sufficiency Jihad Organization, made the remarks in an exclusive interview with FNA.

"Enemies should not imagine that if their Apache choppers have shown a mighty and desirable performance in Iraq and Afghanistan, they can show the same might and power in a possible aggression against Iran. We will certainly put an end to the power of their Apaches through our measures," Arab-Beigi stressed, without specifying the type of the weapon Iran is manufacturing to shoot down Apache choppers.

Describing IRGC's capabilities in designing and manufacturing anti-armor weapons as surprising, he reiterated "The variety of our measures and weapons is so wide that the enemy cannot even think of them."

The Iranian official further warned Iran's enemies that they would face a crushing response by the Iranian forces in case of any ground attack against the country.

Tehran launched an arms development program during the 1980-88 Iraqi imposed war on Iran to compensate for a US weapons embargo. Since 1992, Iran has produced its own tanks, armored personnel carriers, missiles and fighter planes.

Yet, Iranian officials have always stressed that the country's military and arms programs serve defensive purposes and should not be perceived as a threat to any other country.

[link to english.farsnews.com]
 Quoting: D. Bunker


Looks like someone stole Imadinnerjacket's thunder.

:DJrebelli:
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02/02/2010 09:46 AM

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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Iran is definetely doing some tauntage lately....lol...we'll see what they have to say on the 11th...about their state of enrichment....if they are over a certain level?...welp...they might as well just announce, "We have an atomic bomb"...they won't say that, but there really isn't any difference....it will be interesting to see how the world press handles whatever is said......

They are also executing 9 more protesters today, or "Soon"....so they are in close ranks mode I'd say....
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02/02/2010 09:48 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Iran is definetely doing some tauntage lately....lol...we'll see what they have to say on the 11th...about their state of enrichment....if they are over a certain level?...welp...they might as well just announce, "We have an atomic bomb"...they won't say that, but there really isn't any difference....it will be interesting to see how the world press handles whatever is said......

They are also executing 9 more protesters today, or "Soon"....so they are in close ranks mode I'd say....
 Quoting: SHR


Honestly, I believe they thought the 11th was specifically significant to Western plans. The mention of the date, I think, was intended as a "I want you to know that I know."
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02/02/2010 10:09 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Hey, there's always hope of peace and goodwill prevailing!

Controlling Jewish Destiny Does Not Require Controlling Theirs
By MJ Rosenberg, April 27, 2007
Issue # 320



Visiting Israel is always a good antidote to some of the hysterics that surround debate about the country and its future here in the United States.

I just returned from an Israel Policy Forum leadership trip to Israel (also Jordan and the Palestinians) and there was not much of the end-of-the-world rhetoric one hears so often at pro-Israel conclaves here.

Take former Prime Minister Netanyahu, for instance. Although here in the United States, he sometimes sounds pessimistic about Israel's future, on his home turf he was bullish about Israel and particularly about its economy. (His one caveat was that all bets are off if suicide bombings resume, indicating that the Likud leader, like every other Israeli we met, may understand that reaching an agreement with the Palestinians is required for Israel to thrive).

But all in all, Netanyahu, like his colleagues from across the political spectrum, was anything but apocalyptic about the future. As for the Iran threat, it rattles them but they believe that Israel has the resources to deal with it - especially if the international community is emphatic with Tehran about the diverse costs it will be forced to pay if it pursues the nuclear weapon option.

Contrary to some of the rhetoric emanating from Jewish organizations here, no one we spoke to likened Israel's situation today to that of European Jews in the 1930's, with Ahmadinejad playing the role of Hitler. Israelis find that kind of rhetoric both laughable and offensive. After all, if Israelis are as powerless as stateless Jews 60 years ago, their state has been a failure. That is not how they view Israel. Not by a long shot.

The invocation of the worst years in the history of the Jewish people as analogous to today's situation seems particularly absurd when you are walking along the seafront tayelet (promenade) in Tel Aviv.

Tel Aviv has always been my favorite Israeli city. There are other wonderful places in Israel, but it is Tel Aviv and not Jerusalem that is the embodiment of the Zionist accomplishment.

Jerusalem is beautiful, and suffused with holiness, but it would be beautiful and suffused with holiness even if Jews had never returned to their ancient homeland. The most beautiful aspect of Jerusalem - its skyline dominated by the golden Dome of the Rock - was not built by Jews anyway, nor were the gates and walls of the Old City. With the exception of the Western Wall, the Romans and other occupiers of ancient days destroyed imposing physical reminders of the long Jewish connection to Jerusalem.

But Tel Aviv would not exist if the Jews hadn't returned. In 1909, Zionist pioneers chose a spot among the sand dunes north of the ancient city of Jaffa and declared that it would be the great city of the future Jewish state. They divided lots in the sand and started building.


And, last week, 98 years later, I once again got to see their accomplishment.

I think today's T-A is precisely what the founders had in mind. Like Rio, Chicago and Beirut, Tel Aviv is one of those cities which grew up alongside the water. But not with its back to the water (like New York) but facing it with its pastel high-rise buildings right along the Mediterranean.


Tel Aviv is, unlike Jerusalem, an overwhelmingly Jewish city. I love Jerusalem's Arab parts, especially the Old City and I know East Jerusalem well (I once lived on Salah-El Din for three months).

But I'm a Zionist, which means, as Israel's national anthem, Hatikva, puts it, "Jews living in freedom in their own land."

Although there is nothing wrong with being part of a minority, the whole point of Israel is to have one place in the world where Jews are not one.

And that is Tel Aviv. Secular and religious, fashionable, tolerant (gay Palestinians come to Tel Aviv to be part of the lively gay scene), Tel Aviv represents the best of Zionism.
It is also, not coincidentally, the place in Israel that is most antithetical to the Zionism of the settlers who choose to live not in an Israeli city, town, village or kibbutz but as a tiny minority among a Palestinian population hostile to its presence. While the Jews of Tel Aviv would never choose to live as a minority, the Jews of Hebron and the far-flung settlements just outside Ramallah and Nablus, are determined to do just that, despite the obvious threat to themselves and their children from living where there presence is a provocation.

The settlers also present a threat to Zionism itself. As Dr. Alon Liel, formerDirector of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, told us: "Zionism is not about the past. It is about preserving a Jewish democracy for the future."

The settler movement, and the preservation of Israeli control over the West Bank which is its sine qua non, undermines the future of that Jewish democracy.
The good news is that less than 5% of the Jewish population of Israel has chosen to abandon life in Israel for life on a hostile frontier. Not only do few Jews even consider living in a place like Hebron, where a tiny Jewish minority routinely abuses the majority Palestinians, but not many more than that even choose to visit there.

Hebron may once have had a vibrant Jewish community but that was long ago. Today, choosing to live in Hebron or the other settlements in overwhelmingly Palestinian areas is to reject Zionism in favor of the ghetto. Jews rejected that option a long time ago. In fact, it was not one they ever chose for themselves.

The beauty of Tel Aviv is that it epitomizes the Zionist dream which is, despite the critics, not a movement designed to impose Jewish control over Palestinians but to enable Jews to control their own destinies. Freeing Jews to control their destinies does not require preventing Palestinians from controlling theirs. In fact, it requires just the opposite.

MJ Rosenberg is the Director of Israel Policy Forum's Washington Policy Center. If you would appreciate receiving this weekly letter via e-mail, send an e-mail, with the subject "subcribe" to: [email protected]
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D. Bunker  (OP)

02/02/2010 11:47 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Hamas threatens to take fight against Israel beyond Gaza

After blaming Israeli agents for assassinating a Hamas official in Dubai on Friday, Hamas said it too could broaden the conflict beyond Israel and Gaza. But analysts are doubtful Hamas can pull it off.

More: [link to www.csmonitor.com]
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D. Bunker  (OP)

02/02/2010 11:54 AM
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Israel warns ships in Mediterranean

February 2, 2010

JERUSALEM (JTA) -- Israel's Port Authority warned all ships in the Mediterranean Sea to be alert for explosive devices floating near beaches in southern Israel.

Beaches remained closed Tuesday, the day the warning was issued, as several suspicious objects were reported at southern beaches.

A day earlier, two explosive devices in barrels were discovered near southern Israeli beaches in Ashkelon and Ashdod, according to reports, and deactivated by police sappers.

Also Tuesday, a Kassam rocket fired from the Gaza Strip landed in southern Israel. No injuries or damage were reported.

Police told the Israeli media that they believe the barrels discovered Monday by people walking on the beach came from Gaza, Haaretz reported. The barrels each weighed about 175 pounds.

A senior Palestinian source told Ynet Monday evening that the explosives were to be used to attack an Israeli oil rig in southern Israel. The source told Ynet that the attacks were a joint operation of several Palestinian terror groups.

[link to jta.org]

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While quite practical, a maritime warning has potential additional meaning.
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
D. Bunker  (OP)

02/02/2010 11:56 AM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Report: N. Korea resumes military aid to Syria

Japanese newspaper reports that Pyongyang helping Damascus manufacture maraging steel, which is used in missile skins, ballistic warheads, and gas centrifuges. Iran denies connection to North Korean weapons plane stopped in Thailand last month

Yitzhak Benhorin
Published: 02.02.10, 18:44 / Israel News


WASHINGTON – The Pyongyang-Damascus axis is back in order. For the first time since the Syrian reactor was bombed in September 2007, North Korea has renewed its supply of sensitive military technology to Damascus, according to a report Tuesday in Japanese business newspaper, Nikkei.

Western intelligence sources told the newspaper that North Korea is aiding Syria in the production of maraging steel, which is extremely durable at high heats and pressure. It is typically used in missile skins, ballistic warheads, and gas centrifuges critical in the uranium enrichment process. Its durability and malleability makes it ideal to for creating thin missile skins capable of carrying heavier payloads.

more: [link to www.ynetnews.com]
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009
D. Bunker  (OP)

02/02/2010 06:42 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
Iran president Ahmadinejad accepts nuclear deal terms


Iran's president has said it is ready to send its enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment under a deal to ease concerns about its nuclear programme.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told state TV that Iran would have "no problem" if most of its stock was held for several months before being returned as fuel rods.

Correspondents say the decision would be a major shift in Tehran's position, but there is scepticism in the West.

The US said that if Iran was serious it should tell the UN's nuclear watchdog.

Last month, diplomats said Iran had informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it did not accept the terms of the deal and had instead demanded a simultaneous exchange on its territory.

The US and its allies fear Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons. Iran insists its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful.

'Definitive answer'

The deal agreed in October between Iran, the IAEA and the so-called P5+1 - the US, Russia, China, UK, France plus Germany - envisaged Iran sending about 70% of its low-enriched uranium to Russia and France, where it would be processed into fuel for a research reactor.

More : [link to news.bbc.co.uk]
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02/02/2010 06:46 PM
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Re: Middle East War & Peace 2011 - Egypt back in play
'Israel infiltrated Syria leadership'

BY KHALED ABU TOAMEH
03/02/2010 01:27


Hamas probing whether Israel also got into Damascus security services.

The mysterious death of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai last month has prompted Hamas to launch an internal investigation to determine whether Israel has managed to infiltrate the highest echelons of the Islamist movement, a senior Hamas official in the Gaza Strip revealed on Tuesday.

“The assassination of someone as senior as Mabhouh has rung an alarm bell in Hamas,” the official told The Jerusalem Post. “Only a few people in the Hamas leadership knew about Mabhouh’s secret activities and movements.”

The official said that many Hamas officials in the Gaza Strip and Syria were convinced that the Mossad has infiltrated the movement’s top ranks. “Obviously, the assassination of Mabhouh is a huge security blunder for Hamas, because it shows that the Israeli agents are sitting among our leaders in Damascus.”

The Hamas official said Hamas was also looking into the possibility that Israel has infiltrated the Syrian security services, which are responsible for the safety of the leaders of all the radical Palestinian groups based in Damascus, including Hamas.

“We don’t rule out the possibility that the Israelis or some other security agency that works with them have recruited a senior Syrian intelligence officer who feeds them with details about the movements and whereabouts of representatives of Hamas and other groups, particularly Hizbullah,” he said.

Meanwhile, Hamas appears to be divided over the question of whether it should attack Israeli and Jewish targets around the world to avenge the killing of its top operative.

Some Hamas officials warned that “exporting” the fight against Israel to the international arena would jeopardize the movement’s efforts to seek recognition by the West.

A Hamas representative in the West Bank urged his movement to abide by its long-standing policy of refraining from attacking Israeli and Jewish targets outside the Palestinian territories and Israel.

He predicted that despite the threats, Hamas would not “change the rules of the game” by carrying out terrorist attacks abroad.

Hamas’s “foreign minister,” Osama Hamdan, hinted that his movement has no intention to launch terrorist attacks on Israelis and Jews around the world. “Hamas won’t be dragged to the square where the Israelis want to take us,” he said. “Hamas makes its decisions in a balanced manner and in accordance with the interests of the Palestinian people.”

Hamdan, who is Hamas’s representative in Lebanon, said his movement does not make hasty decisions based on “emotional” considerations.

Shortly after blaming Israel for the killing of Mabhouh, a number of senior Hamas officials, including Mahmoud Zahar, declared that their movement would seek revenge outside Israel and the Palestinian territories. Hamas’s armed wing, Izzadin Kassam, issued a similar threat.

[link to www.jpost.com]
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Favorite Quote - "I just fucking love outer space, it has all those planets and stars and shit." - Mister Obvious 2009





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