2008-03-31

Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai is leading President Robert Mugabe in presidential elections with 58 percent of the vote, according to an assessment endorsed by his party, amid claims the government may manipulate the results.

Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change also obtained a parliamentary majority, according to a Web site the MDC said was set up by non-governmental organizations and reflected its own assessment. Electoral authorities said the party won 24 of 51 parliamentary seats announced so far. Bloomberg News wasn't able to independently verify the MDC's assessment.

``We have won this election, but the ruling party and its apparatus may still try and steal it,'' Tendai Biti, the MDC's secretary general, said in an interview from Harare today. ``Rigging can happen and that's why we are taking the precaution of doing our own counts from information posted outside polling stations. We know we are well ahead.''

Mugabe, 84, is competing against Tsvangirai, 56, and Simba Makoni, a 58-year-old former finance minister and ex-ruling party member, to extend his 28-year rule of Zimbabwe. The southern African nation has suffered a decade-long recession and the world's highest inflation rate, 100,580 percent, after Mugabe's seizures of white-owned commercial farms caused export income to plummet.

In elections in 2000, 2002 and 2005, early vote counts from urban areas put the MDC ahead before rural-area results allowed Mugabe to claim victory.

Public Protests

Of the seats announced, the MDC won eight in Harare to the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front's one, results posted on the Web site of the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corp. showed. Almost all of Zanu-PF's seats were in rural areas.

Since the polls closed two days ago, only 24 percent of seats have been announced by the state-run Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. Zanu-PF has won 26 seats and a splinter group of the MDC one.

Uncertainty created by the commission's delay in releasing results may lead to public protests, Marian Tupy, a sub-Saharan Africa specialist at the Washington-based Cato Institute, said in an e-mailed statement.

``Should that occur, the role of the police and army will be crucial in determining whether the democratic process is respected or ignored.''

Riot Police

Zimbabwean riot police and paramilitary units have been deployed throughout Harare, police spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena said in an interview from the city. The security forces will prevent intimidation and violence, he said.

``People mustn't be violent and must not intimidate or provoke,'' Bvudzijena said. ``However, it's human to celebrate, but we don't want any insulting behavior.''

The poll assessment showed Mugabe winning 37 percent of the presidential vote and Simba Makoni 5 percent. It gave the MDC 117 out of the 210 seats to be allocated, Zanu-PF 50 and independents and a splinter group of the MDC that competed separately 20. The other results and those for senatorial elections were yet to be collated.

In some constituencies ``the turn out is very low, about 40 percent,'' Irene Petras, the head of Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights, said. ``They also aren't talking about the spoilt ballot, which is very important given the number of voters that were turned away'' from polling stations.

This year's ballot was held amid accusations by Amnesty International and other human rights groups that the government harassed the opposition and threatened to cut off food supplies to voters who didn't back the ruling party.

Torture Victims

Zimbabwe Lawyers said many people were prevented from voting by officials who said they had incorrect identification documents or tried to vote in the wrong area.

``It would be opportune that the Zimbabwe electoral commission should publish the final results as soon as possible to demonstrate its independence and to avoid unnecessary speculation,'' European Commission spokesman John Clancy told a Brussels press conference today.

U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown's spokesman Michael Ellam told reporters in London it was important that there was ``clarity'' about the election results ``as soon as possible.''

George Charamba, Mugabe's spokesman, and Patrick Chinamasa, Zimbabwe's justice minister, didn't answer calls to their mobile phones.

Chinamasa lost his parliamentary seat, Innocent Chagonda, a Harare-based lawyer, said in an interview, citing state radio. Chinamasa, a 61-year-old Mugabe loyalist, in 2002 banned a number of human rights organizations in Zimbabwe, including the Amani Trust, which counsels torture victims.

Credibility Gap

The MDC said it leads in Mashonaland Central province and won a majority in the province of Masvingo, both strongholds of Zanu-PF.

Results are posted outside polling stations before being sent to a central collating center, Petras said. Figures from the independent Web site are being circulated via mobile-phone text messages in Harare.

``If Zanu-PF continues doing this, continues delaying and the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission continues delaying, they are going to end up with an insurmountable credibility gap,'' the MDC's Biti said.

Zimbabwe's government had instructed parties not to release results before official announcements.

A second round of voting will be held within three weeks if none of the presidential candidates win more than 50 percent of the vote. Mugabe said he doesn't expect a runoff as he won the election, the state-controlled Sunday Mail reported yesterday.

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