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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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[quote:Digital mix guy:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzk4ODIxMzg4Xzc4ODg3NUEw] [quote:Helios Maximus:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzk4Njk2NTA5XzEzRDZEQjU0] I often see scare-mongering headlines about a low M-flare of a filament CME for example. They often scream "TERRIFYING Solar Eruption Threatens Blackouts..." or some such nonsense. The worst offenders (which I won't name) seem to be so-called 'tech journals' based in India or Malaysia, but I've also seen a few from Forbes, Newsweek and other mainstream fake-news outlets. Anyway, Scientific American has published a good analysis of what real dangers may result from Solar activity and how to weed through the over-hyped nonsense. It's something y'all should read to ground yourself in the real science of heliophysics and space weather. (Ironically, Sci-Am promotes links to their own articles with fearful click-bait titles, haha) Here we go- [b]Should You Really Worry about Solar Flares?[/b] On January 6 a powerful solar flare erupted from the surface of the sun. It was the first X-class flare—the strongest type on the flare intensity scale—in around two months. Two further X-class flares followed within the next few days, marking a distinct uptick in solar activity—and in breathless speculations that the flurry of flares could threaten us here on Earth. One U.K. tabloid raised the possibility of “major continent-wide power blackouts.” “Terrifying solar storm coming to Earth,” read another outlet’s headline. Heliophysicists and other scientists studying “space weather” warn that flares and related solar outbursts can indeed interfere with modern life by damaging power grids, as well as by increasing radiation exposures for occupants of space habitats and high-altitude aircraft. But even so, such[b] experts say, the risk of harm arising from inclement space weather remains far lower than many media reports often suggest. Does that mean we shouldn’t worry any time our star decides to belch in our general direction? Not exactly. Knowing what to worry about and when, however, requires proper context and perspective.[/b] (snip) “At this point, I do not need to convince you that we are not facing the apocalypse,” says Erika Palmerio, a heliophysicist at solar research company Predictive Science. “The point is that solar activity is rising at the moment because that is what is expected of the solar cycle.” X-class flares, for instance, are quite common during periods of heightened solar activity despite their ominous “strongest” ranking. According to Palmerio, a typical solar cycle produces almost 200 of them, with most occurring towards the maximum. Statistically speaking, that implies we can expect more than a dozen X-class flares to erupt this year alone. (less<50%) READ the FULL REPORT: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/should-you-really-worry-about-solar-flares/ ***Caveat: Of course GLP creates the BEST DOOM titles and I enjoy them all (especially the stupid ones, LOL). Yes, I occasionally hype up an event to garner interest in, and provoke discussion of an unusual or strong eruption. But that's a rare thing from me. Dr. Tony Phillips @ spaceweather is also known to exaggerate stuff for clicks, not to mention the usual suspects on YouTube. Nuff said. :Aztec-sacrifice: [/quote] [quote:Helios Maximus:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzk4NzY4MTQ1X0QwRDZDOUUw] [quote:Digital mix guy:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzk4NzI0Mjk0X0FGNkYyMDFB] A newly emerged sunspot is making its presence known, unleashing a [b][i][u]powerful X-class solar flare[/u][/i][/b] that triggered shortwave radio blackouts across the South Pacific. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a massive solar flare on Thursday (Jan 5) at 7:45 p.m. EST (0045 GMT on Jan. 6). The outburst blasted out a glowing-hot plasma dome that lingered above the sunspot AR3182 for over an hour, according to Spaceweather.com(opens in new tab). Because of the sun's rotation, the [b][i][u]lively sunspot will [color=red]soon[/color] face Earth [/u][/i][/b]and could continue its explosive activity in the days ahead. Solar flares are categorized by size into lettered groups, with X-class being the most powerful. Within each class, numbers from 1 to 10 (and beyond, for X-class flares) denote a flare's relative strength. The recent flare clocked in at X1.2, a relatively weak example of the most powerful class. AR3182 has also been linked to the violent eruption on Tuesday (Jan. 3) that sent a coronal mass ejection (CME), a giant cloud of magnetized plasma, barrelling off into space. At the time, [b][i][u][color=red]the sunspot was hidden on the far side of the sun [/color]and so the eruption posed no danger to Earth. [/u][/i][/b] https://www.space.com/sun-releases-first-massive-solar-flare-of-2023 [/quote] Your news is like a month late, my friend. We try to update events daily or every few days when it's quiet. Don't buy in to the hype that every flare is massive, terrifying or a threat to civilization. The 'blackouts' are merely brief interruptions of HF transmissions on the day-side of Earth when the D-Layer of the Ionosphere is used to bounce radio waves. Many headlines I see attempt to scare people about electric grid blackouts....ie., fake news. Great posts but a bit late. Let us know what happened today or yesterday if you can. :yoda: [/quote] ok, no problem, but actually, my recent post about the Jan 6 X-flare was actually in response to Helios' s post above that is dated January 30, which relates to the X-flare that occurred on January 6. just wanted to clarify that. your point is valid as well. thanks! about [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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