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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
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[quote:tomasgod1:MV8xMzgyOTUyXzI3NTUzNzkyXzg5REE2RUQ5] Hi everyone,:hi: We currently have a lull in activity. I thought I would go ahead and post NOAA's 3 day forecast. Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2011 Oct 07 2200 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2011 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1313 (S16E39) produced a C1/Sf at 07/0121Z. Region 1305 (N11W91) continued to produce C-class activity as it rotated around the west limb. All of the other regions on the disk remained relatively stable during the past 24 hours. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next three days (08-10 October). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (08 October). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (09-10 October) due to effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 Oct 122 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 114 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-010/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/15 Minor storm 01/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/15 Minor storm 01/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html [/quote]
Original Message
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
We have just had another huge X flare measuring at a X8.2 originating from sunspot 2673
On September 11, 2017
[
link to legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov
]
ALL flares recorded ARE Earth facing regardless of where the sunspot is located
-----------
CME FROM X9 HAS ARRIVED!
Issue Time: 2017 Sep 07 2242 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2017 Sep 07 2255 UTC
Valid To: 2017 Sep 07 2330 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2017 Sep 07 2229 UTC
On September 6th we have had 2 X flares! A X2.2 at 09:10 utc & a secend larger flare just a few hours later of X9.3 at 12:02 utc. There is a large widespread Earth directed CME associated with this latest X flare as we can see here
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
[
link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)
]
An update as to the arrival time of this CME will be added once all data has been reviewed.
The X9.3 flare is the 14th largest X flare ever recorded!
On September 4th we had 7 M flares from fast growing sunspot 2673, with at least 1 large dense Earth directed CME. This CME will arrive late in the day on Wednesday September 6th.
There is now a 25% chance for X flares over the next 24hrs & 71% chance for M flares
We have a Long Duration M2.4 Solar Flare starting
01:05 UTC July 14th 2017
There was a full halo CME observed with this solar flare. The associated CME is Earth Directed. See discussion on the last page for all updates!
1,000,000 Views hit on July 3, 2012
A big thanks to all the wonderful contributors of
the GLP Solar Watch thread!
Please See Current Events Discussion On Last Page :)
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