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NASA: The Discovery of a Previously Unknown Asteroid Belt Will Lead To More Frequent Strikes
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In accordance with industry accepted best practices we ask that users limit their copy / paste of copyrighted material to the relevant portions of the article you wish to discuss and no more than 50% of the source material, provide a link back to the original article and provide your original comments / criticism in your post with the article.
[quote:Someone 38307156:MV8yNjQ4ODI5XzQ2NDk3MDYzX0RENDdBMEFD] Someone sayz, So where did this wrong-in-every-way story come from? One doesn't blame OP for bringing it to everyone's attention, but perhaps a little digging wiuld have helped. OP cited the http://www.thedailysheeple.com/nasa-the-discovery-of-a-previously-unknown-asteroid-belt-will-lead-to-more-frequent-strikes_092014 story. The Daily Sheeple cite http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/507480/Asteroid-Strikes-Earth-Damage-Nasa-Destruction . That really steamy pile is the one OP probably would have wanted to cite. It of course, being the Express, doesn't bother citing. Turns out the source for all of these stories ultimatly track back to one journalist with a habit of this sort of thing. Here is a section of a long article ripping this rumor up. The crux is a confusion over the difference between 400 asteroids aproaching Earth in a belt, versus a 400 orbit projection of ONE astroids not-very-close closest approach. Although one has reservations (severe) about reffering to this author, in this case, he's witheringly spot-on. One just realized this might not be an acceptable GLP link. Or name. ------------- No, We’re Not Facing an Onslaught of Asteroid Impacts By Phil Plait The very day I posted that, a ridiculous article appeared in the U.K. tabloid Express, claiming that the Earth “faces 100 YEARS of killer [asteroid] strikes starting 2017.” How do I phrase this? That claim is really, really, really, really, really wrong. Really. The author of this article, Nathan Rao, has a history of writing reality-impaired articles; ... this asteroid article he wrote is more of the same....For example, he claims: "A previously unknown asteroid belt has been located in deep space and is now hurtling towards our part of the solar system. … The terrifying predictions came as NASA revealed disturbing new data showing 400 impacts are expected between 2017 and 2113, based on new observational data of objects seen in space over the past 60 days." Um, no. Not even close. It’s not an asteroid belt, but a single asteroid. And it’s not 400 impacts, it’s 400 predicted passes of Earth, most missing by a wide margin. Happily, U.K. amateur astronomer David Wood (who also sent me the note notifying me of Rao’s article) did the footwork for me. He figured out that Rao is talking about the asteroid 2014 NZ64. It fits Rao’s (bizarrely interpreted) description; it was recently discovered (in July, about 60 days ago) and the JPL Earth Impact Risk Summary page has a list of 399 near-Earth passes between the years 2017 and 2113, the exact range Rao listed. It’s obviously what Rao is talking about, but somehow Rao turned a single asteroid that will miss us into hundreds of asteroids that will all hit us. That’s a somewhat significant error to make. ... So what’s the science here? NZ64 is a small, 100-meter or so wide, asteroid that has an orbit that does take it pretty close to Earth... Given that, at this time, NZ64 has only been observed over less than a two-day timespan,[b] I’d say trying to figure out where it’ll be more than a few months in advance is nearly impossible.[/b] ... Even so, take a look at the impact risk page, and you’ll see a column there labeled “Impact Probability.” ... Note how close to 0 the numbers are! Typical values translate into odds of about a billion to one ...and the highest chance I saw was for a pass in 2023, when it has a one in 6 million chance of hitting us. ............ http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/09/07/debunking_no_asteroid_swarm_is_headed_for_earth.html . Less than 50% copied. Emphasis added. Edited for readability. ----------------------- Allowing for the fact that more observations need to be made to increase the accuracy of the projections, it's clear there isn't a new astroid belt. This also answers why finding such a belt would increase risk of impact, that part of the story (that the whole belt was on an impact course) didn't get picked up. Journalistic example of the Telephone game. [/quote]
Original Message
NASA has released data showing that they expect at least 400 asteroid impacts on Earth between 2017 and 2113. Although most of the rocks have a diameter of 110 yards or less they have warned about a colossus that’s heading our way. The mega asteroid will encounter Earth in 2020. [
link to www.thedailysheeple.com
]
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