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Subject Measles Outbreak in Washington state keeps going - Vaccine effectiveness.
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Original Message The measles outbreak in Washington state just keeps going.
It looks like it is finally ending but today, Mar. 12, another case has been identified to make the total cases = 72, all but one in Clark Co.
[link to www.doh.wa.gov (secure)]
Clark Co. is just across the river from Portland, OR. and is essentially a residential/bedroom community for Portland.
.
[link to www.clark.wa.gov (secure)]
"Current investigation - updated 3/12/2019

Clark County Public Health is continuing its measles outbreak investigation. Since Jan. 1, Public Health has identified 71 confirmed cases and is currently investigating three suspect cases. There are no new locations where people may have been exposed to measles.

Here are the details of the [Clark Co.] confirmed cases:
Age
- 1 to 10 years: 52 cases
- 11 to 18 years: 15 cases
- 19 to 29 years: one case
- 30 to 39 years: three cases

Immunization status
- Unimmunized: 62 cases
- Unverified: seven cases
- 1 MMR vaccine: two cases
- Hospitalization: one case (none currently)
- Date of last confirmed case: Tuesday, March 12
...
To date, the majority of lab results of confirmed cases have matched a wild strain of virus circulating in Eastern Europe. The others were vaccine strain, which were identified as described above."

.
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In Clark Co. 19% of kindergartners are unvaccinated.
[link to www.clark.wa.gov (secure)]
If that ratio hold for the general population then with the above information:
- There were 64 cases with known vaccination status.
- Unvaccinated were 62/64 = 96.9% of the cases.
- Vaccinated were 2/64 = 3.1% of the cases.
Therefore:
- 19% of the population (Unvaccinated) contributed 96.9% of the cases
- 81% of the population (Vaccinated 1-Dose+) contributed 3.1% of the cases.
wtf
Does anyone see a big, big problem here?
... Bueller?, ... Bueller?
.
What those numbers indicate is that so far in this outbreak the unvaccinated catch measles at a rate 133 times the rate that the vaccinated catch measles.
133 times as much measles in the Unvaccinated as in the Vaccinated.
.
I'd call that a pretty big effectiveness win for the MMR vaccine.
.
Moral of the story - Get your kids vaccinated.

Have fun and stay safe.


Reality.

Edited to clarify/correct the WA state vs Clark Co tallies of 72 vs 71 cases.
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