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Subject Yield curve inversion on Friday for first time since 2007: Recession sign sparks panic

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[quote:Anonymous Coward 57310145:MV80MDA2ODIyXzcwQUQwOTlC]
On Friday afternoon, the yield curve inverted, which, if you’re a halfway normal person, sounds extremely boring, but it sent the financial press into a tizzy.

CNBC reported on a Morgan Stanley client note urging customers to “get defensive” with their investments due to a “key indicator of an economic recession.” A separate, not-so-reassuring CNBC segment over the weekend featured a key official from the Bank of Singapore urging, “Don’t panic over yield curve inversion yet.” But when is the right time to panic? James Mackintosh’s investing column at the Wall Street Journal led with the observation that “the market’s most reliable recession indicator is finally flashing red,” while Simon Moore at Forbes was more precise, pegging the risk of recession at exactly 30 percent.

This swiftly got pushed out of the mainstream news cycle by breathless speculation about Robert Mueller’s report on Trump and Russia, then by the summary of the report itself, but it continues to be a topic in financial media. And, realistically, you are more likely to have your life affected by the possibly looming recession than by Russian hackers.

https://www.vox.com/2019/3/25/18279705/yield-curve-inversion-recession-explained
[/quote]

Original Message On Friday afternoon, the yield curve inverted, which, if you’re a halfway normal person, sounds extremely boring, but it sent the financial press into a tizzy.

CNBC reported on a Morgan Stanley client note urging customers to “get defensive” with their investments due to a “key indicator of an economic recession.” A separate, not-so-reassuring CNBC segment over the weekend featured a key official from the Bank of Singapore urging, “Don’t panic over yield curve inversion yet.” But when is the right time to panic? James Mackintosh’s investing column at the Wall Street Journal led with the observation that “the market’s most reliable recession indicator is finally flashing red,” while Simon Moore at Forbes was more precise, pegging the risk of recession at exactly 30 percent.

This swiftly got pushed out of the mainstream news cycle by breathless speculation about Robert Mueller’s report on Trump and Russia, then by the summary of the report itself, but it continues to be a topic in financial media. And, realistically, you are more likely to have your life affected by the possibly looming recession than by Russian hackers.

[link to www.vox.com (secure)]

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