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Prof Who Predicted 40-Seat Blue Wave Guarantees Trump 2020 Defeat: Dem Starts with 278 Electoral Votes
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Rachel Bitecofer, the “assistant director of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia,” told MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell on Tuesday evening that her model has Trump down 278 Electoral College votes even before Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona are decided. She believes that Florida will likely go for Trump because of the state’s older voters, but that still won’t be enough for Trump to win back the White House.
Bitecofer also told O’Donnell this week that “the election of Donald Trump is a needed kerosene on” a “lazy and complacent Democrat electorate” that was taking former President Barack Obama’s coattails for granted and “didn’t show up in big numbers in 2016” because they “took for granted that Trump would not be elected.”
According to Bitecofer, Democrats will not be complacent in 2020, and she argues that Democrats will be better off turning out their base than trying to persuade the mythical moderate swing voter.
“My model for 2020 starts off with Democrats at 278 Electoral College votes, and that’s a problem for Trump, because of course you need 270 to win. It does that because of my model’s prediction, based on turnout and predicted vote share, that Pennsylvania and Michigan will slip back to the Democrats,” she recently told Salon. “I’m uncertain about Ohio, but even if Trump wins Ohio, he can’t win the other three Midwestern states. Then as you point out I have four tossup states: Arizona, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa. Even if he wins all four of them, the Democrats have already won the election — and the idea that he would win all four is pretty unlikely.”
[link to www.breitbart.com (secure)]
breitbart less 50
I tend to disagree and think she is way off base, hopefully flip the house too.
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