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Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
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Statistical Analysis of Coronavirus Outbreak
This morning I've completed a comprehensive numerical analysis of the current situation.
The official numbers of infected and deaths seem to be plausible, however I believe they are delayed 10 days from what is actually currently happening.
It also appeared at first that the virus was following a purely exponential progression, however as of today, the data is beginning to depart from that trendline. I believe this is because before today it was too early (not enough information) to accurately express its behavior.
It may also be that travel restrictions and quarantine have worked to inhibit it's full potential.
Because of this, the virus is proceding in a polynomial instead of exponential fashion and can be described by the following formula:
f(x) = 128.38x^2 -605.82x + 940
If this is correct, in 3 days from now, by Sunday evening we will see 17,620 reported cases 3,524 in critical condition and 384 deaths.
I believe things will continue in this fashion in the Northern Hemisphere for 3 more months until late Spring.
It may continue to progress if areas in the Southern Hemisphere are contaminated.
By the middle of March I think we will be looking at 426,759 cases and 9,300 deaths.
If countries do not enact quarantine, however, the situation may be worse.
This may however cause significant and continued economic disruption to the travel, tourism and hospitality industries.
If things continue as they have, I think there will be sufficient medical facilities to handle the critical care cases and prevent those numbers from adding to the death toll.
The world situation was already in a fragile state before this happened, and political factions and state actors may use this as an opportunity to foment civil and political unrest, although this would be much akin to throwing bricks when you live in a glass house.
I think Sunday evening will be another benchmark to reassess the accuracy of analysis.
This is a dynamic situation and there are too many variables to feed into the equations i.e. length of recovery, number of ventilators available, countries adopting city wide quarantines and travel bans, global weather patterns, etc.
I don't have all the answers. Nobody does. But this is my best attempt at logic at the moment.
-Jackal
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