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US will run out of hospital beds by May 6 (must read!)
Ms Sans Serif
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[quote:Shaun Kaven:MV80MjkyOTI1Xzc4MjMwOTY0XzQ2QUQwNzIw] [quote:bhdz71:MV80MjkyOTI1Xzc4MjI1NTA2X0ZENURFMTZD] Yep, by the 12th of May denial of the situation will be impossible without insanity. [/quote] Indeed. The nothing burgers want a real date, we’ll there you have it. Or sooner, as Trin wrote, because she assumes doubling every 6 days but it has been doubling every three. [/quote]
This is a great analysis and MUST READ. I summarized below but for the full thread click:
link to twitter.com (secure)
It breaks down like this: (courtesy of Liz Specht, PhD Biologist)
I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math.
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate.
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on.
Nothing burgers: I know that exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go...
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