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Subject NEW ECONOMIST MODEL FORECAST: Chance of winning the electoral college: Biden 90% Trump 10%

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Original Message Chance of winning the electoral college:
Biden 90%
Trump 10%

Chance of winning the most votes:
Biden 99%
Trump 1%

Estimated electoral college votes:
Biden 346
Trump 192

Estimated electoral college votes
Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes. The midpoint is the estimate of the electoral-college vote for each party on election day.

Electoral-college simulations
Our model works by simulating 20,000 different paths for the election, each time varying candidates’ vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the political environment and the effects of campaigning.

Chance of winning each state
Our model combines the national prediction with polls and political-economic factors at the state level. We take into account that states that are similar are likely to move with each other; if Donald Trump wins Minnesota, he will probably win Wisconsin too.

[link to projects.economist.com (secure)]

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