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Subject HOW MANY WILL DIE FROM PANDEMIC H1N1 FLU??? LETS RUN THE NUMBERS.
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Original Message If the death rate of those infected in Mexico is any indication of the mortality rate of this virus, then we are looking at a mortality rate of ~6%. Some have suggested that the number of reported cases is being under reported and that there may be more that were mildly ill. While it is possible that the number those who fell ill is actually higher than what is reported, it is ALSO possible that the number of dead is being underreported. Keep in mind that they are actively testing samples from those who died trying to determine if they were infected with the H1N1 Swine Flu.

For the sake of argument though, lets assume that the number of infected is actually 25% more than what is reported. This would have the effect of lowering the projected mortality rate from ~6.25% to ~5%.

So far there have ben ~21 cases of swine flu reported in the US and zero deaths. Those numbers are NOT conflict with a 5% fatality rate. Statistically, if this flu has a mortality rate of 5%, then you would expect to see 1 death for every 20 cases. Unfortunately, our sample size in the U.S. is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions at this point. However, we can state that given the current number of reported cases in the US, statistically, we would not necessarily expect to see a death yet.

So if we go with a 5% mortality rate and assume that only 7% of the U.S. population becomes infected - we would be looking at over 1 MILLION DEAD.

If 30% or 40% of the U.S. population became infected with a virus that has a 5% mortality rate - WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT 5+ MILLION DEAD

If just 7% of the World population falls ill with this virus and it exhibits a 5% mortality rate, 22+ MILLION DEAD

If 40% of the world population fell ill? - 150 MILLION DEAD

wow.
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