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Ohhhh, he did not say THAT!

Fantasy Woo Woo league junkie
05/27/2005 01:48 PM
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Ohhhh, he did not say THAT!
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[link to www.sabr.org]

I have come to realize, over the last three years, that a wide range of conclusions in sabermetrics may be unfounded, due to the reliance on a commonly accepted method which seems, intuitively, that it ought to work, but in practice may not actually work at all...In a sense, it is like this: a sentry is looking through a fog, trying to see if there is an invading army out there, somehwere through the fog...so he goes and gets a really, really bright light to shine into the fog. Still doesnīt see anything. The sentry returns and reports that there is just no army out there-but the problem is, he has underestimated the density of the fog...Thatīs where we are: weīre trying to see if thereīs an army out there, and we have confident reports that the coast is clear-but we may have underestimated the density of the fog. The randomness of the data is the fog...Letīs look again; letīs give the fog a little more credit. Letīs not be too sure that we havenīt been missing something important.

I believe Stanislaw Lem wrote a book novel based on the same core idea.

This realization actually has greater import than just to fantasy sports leagues. Dr. Heisenbergīs theorem is basic to reality itself, which leads to same problems Mr. James refers to in the medium scale occurring in the micro and macro scales also.