2010/11 The Coming UK winter , Thoughts?

So anyone's thoughts on the coming winter in the UK and indeed our neighbours over in europe (of course I've mainly been looking at the UK).

From what I have seen so far most people seem to be forecasting or in the very least believing or thinking that it will be a cold winter, comparable or worse than last year.

Although to add some differential into the mix.. There is also speak of a sudden stratospheric warming event, wherein the jet stream is stopped for a short while as the Quasi-biennial oscillation takes effect and switches the equatoral zonal wind between easterly and westerly.

This sudden stratospheric warming also has the effect of warming the temperatures at ground level significantly to, in england cause double digit degrees (C) in january/feburary.

Also coming up there is even the possibility that in the next week there could be snow/wintry frosts in the north of england and scotland as artic air is pulled down.

Unusual for snow in september indeed.

Now a lot of people have also brung up the atlantic conveyer, more specific the gulf stream, I'm sure most of you on here have already read about that, but if not, basically the theory is that the oil spill stopped it (it is indeed just a theory, proof surrounding the exact cause is somewhat fuzzy, you go conspiracy theorists) But that's not the point.

The point is, at least from a surface motion standpoint that the heat injected into the conveyer from the waters short time in the gulf of mexico has been disrupted and is bringing less heat up northwards to the UK and the west of europe. Some would correlate this with the lack of heat in the uk this year, but in my experience a small amount of data will not yield an accurate result.

Also then of course we go and look at the sunspots and the sunspot cycle against past years.

We do indeed see a correlation in the waxing and waning of temperatures in the UK in comparison to the sunspot cycle, although it seems on average from each solar minima it takes around 5 years for the real "cooling" effects to be felt, It's a delayed onset.

So as you would likely find there are people jumping on this saying that we will have a cold winter becuase it is at the right time for the cooling effect to take place, compounded by an above average solar mimina duration. (the average is 11 years, but looking back through the data we can see solar cycle durations fluxing between 9 and 15 years).

But as is likely when looking into the future of weather especially so far out there is considerable "uncertainty" and proper forecasts cannot be made as of yet, be aware that early onset winter weather or unseasable low temperatures does not mean that we will have a cold/snowy winter.

But there is always hope for us that like the cold, and always hope for those who don't.

Now I've heard a lot of reports of things like "snow coming to the alps 1 month earlier than expected" which indeed does give me high hopes for this coming winter, but also reservations about whether this is or isn't "climate change" in any sense of the word.

So, what do you think this winter will be like and also, what do you want it to be like?

Last Edited by OTOC on 09/14/2010 09:58 PM