------->>>>>>Major Breakthrough: ECS From China Found The Time Law Of 7.5+ Earthquakes

Major Breakthrough: ECS From China Found The Time Law Of 7.5+ Earthquakes

Earthquake Civil Society (ECS) is based in China,mainly study 7.5+ quakes,found the time law of 7.5+ earthquakes. Prediction cycle within +/- one day for 7.5+ earthquakes,that's a big project.ECS's cycle is ± 7 days.By the law ECS found ,ECS can predict earthquake perfectly.(ECS's cycle for 7.0+ earthquakes is +/- 3 days and predicted perfectly by probability is for reference only.)

This is tested by historical data:

Get 7 dates by predict 7 times, corresponding to World 7.5+ earthquakes, in which ± 7 days 1 times, ± 3 days 1 times, ± 2 days 1 times, ± 1 day 2 times, ± 11 days 1 times, and another 1 corresponding to magnitude 7.3 earthquake ± 4 days .

And this is tested by future data:

Original precdicton link:

[link to tieba.baidu.com]

Thread: BREAKING: Chinese mathematician found the law of time of the USGS 7.5+ earthquakes

Feedback:

Magnitude7.7
Monday, October 25, 2010 at 14:42:22 UTC
Location 3.484°S, 100.114°E
Depth20.6 km (12.8 miles)
RegionKEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event IDusa00043nx

Someonesay: The frequency of occurrence of 7.0-7.9 mag. earthquakes per year is 18 (avg.) You say that in a 15 day period (2010 Oct 20 ±7 days) there will be one. The chance that you will be right without ANY law, just by luck is about 75% - (18*15)/364. THIS IS NOT IMPRESSIVE!

ECS's answer:

As you say 7.0-7.9 quakes ±7 days the probability is .75,and ECS know predict 7.0-7.9 quakes ±7 days is meaningless.The 7.0+ quakes and the 7.5+ quakes are different concept,if you predict 7.0+ quakes ±6 days 10,000 times by random,the probability is .46,if you predict 7.5+ quakes ±7 days 10,000 times by random,the probability is .21.There's no that many 7.5+ quakes,at the year 2010,till 30th Oct ,we only got 5 earthquakes:

2010 02 27 -36.12 -72.90 8.8
2010 04 06 2.38 97.05 7.8
2010 06 12 7.88 91.94 7.5
2010 07 23 6.49 123.47 7.6
2010 10 25 -3.484 100.114 7.7

If you take 8th and 15th ±7 days every month as 7.5+ quake time,you need predict 20 times to hit these 5 7.5+ quakes,the probability is 5/20 =.25,near the random probability .21.
ECS's 7.0+ quakes ±3 days probability is 1, 7.5+ quakes ±7 days probability is .92.

Feedback online:

Fantastic! Maybe someone could use this software tool Eureqa to get the prediction cycle within +/- one day.

Any reliable information is good information. At least earthquake prone areas can be on greater standby when needed.

This is a great accomplishment. Any general warning can be helpful as all who live in large quake-prone areas can prepare themselves. It's great information.

Firendly Tips:

The three elements used to identify an earthquake event, i.e. time, location and magnitude.Someone maybe wanna know where its going to strike,where its going to strike is ECS's another study scope. ECS identify an earthquake event before the earthquake take place only for ECS's honor members.Even the probability of you see ECS's time ,magnitude prediction openly is < .0001,so if someone think too much,take it easy.

ECS take USGS data as standard data,UTC as standard time.