SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

That was the far-side halo CME from the other day. Spaceweather.com has it featured now along with a pretty photo of Comet ISON.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

There just a B7 flare from 1856:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

posts above ^^^

Hope all goes well....

Earth-directed CME incoming....looks like bullseye.

Cone Model:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

C1 Double-ribbon Spotless Falre-
:10/6-spotless:

Post-eruption Arcade-
:10/6-spotless2:

What's next??????





Z

I doubt that it's mega-powerful considering the C1 level x-rays. It looked like a smallish filament channel eruption, but it was extremely well-aimed at Earth. If the polarity is negative, we may get a geomagnetic storm; if not it may go almost unnoticed. Wait and see what the 'experts' predict.

:10/6-earthboundCME:

Thanks Hugh,...I heading out to star-gaze. Have a great evening.




Z

NASA has changed the cone model since the initial run. The CME looks much weaker in the updated model. At least they know there was a CME, NOAA isn't sure yet.

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels due to an impulsive C1 flare at 06/1125
UTC as well as a long duration C1 flare that occurred along a filament
channel centered near S16W15 at 06/1424 UTC. SDO/AIA 193 imagery showed
coronal darkening beginning at 06/1348 UTC followed by a post flare loop
arcade structure. Further analysis is on-going as imagery becomes
available to determine if a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated
with the event.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

I had a screen capture from the original model run, but for some reason my smilie never appeared (lots of probs w/smilies of late here). Anyway, I unfortunately trashed the image after I 'successfully uploaded' it. So I went to do it again and that's when I noticed the model had changed...hmmm.

:10/6-earthboundCME:

No good images available of today's CME. STEREO Ahead cor 2 shut off just as CME was becoming visible. Here's the last difference image (you can see how closely aligned with the ecliptic it was):

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

:10/6-earthfacingCME:

We have a heart beat!
C6.2 from 11856
The Earths proximity is here (Oct 4):
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Eve:
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]


Last Edited by joinca on 10/07/2013 12:45 AM

I can't believe it!

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
flare is visible here

Oh my, I am sooo sad too. I'll say a prayer to the kitty gods for a safe return. Keep hopeful mang.

wondered where that cme came from when I spied it on enlil, thanks.

Cool, love the thought flow, as always rp

woowhooooo

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Not so much earth directed but might get a side sweep and if its faster than the earlier one, might piggy back it along a little. Has everyone noticed Juno under earth on the enlil, she is making her slingshot orbit.

Funny story for everyone today, I have same routine every morning coffee and GLP and news, this am when I woke , I had no internet and when I looked it said none available whole town so I had a moment of went to TV to see what had happened , but then it came on Have great day

Solarsoft-SDO close-up movie of yesterday's filament eruption:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 1856 (N07E06, Cro/beta) produced a C6/1n
flare at 07/0414 UTC which was the largest event of the period.
Newly-numbered Region 1861 (S15E69, Bxo/beta) produced a C1 flare at
07/0508 UTC. Region 1860 (S28E46, Bxo/beta) was also numbered this
period. A filament eruption centered near S15W43 was observed
initially on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 06/1348 UTC, and the resulting
asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on SOHO/LASCO
imagery at 07/1432 UTC. Current analysis of this event indicates that
this CME will arrive at Earth between 09/2200 UTC and 10/0300 UTC. See
the Geospace portion of this discussion for further details on
anticipated impacts.

Geospace.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (07 Oct) with waning CME influence. Predominately quiet
conditions are expected for day two (08 Oct). The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
active conditions late on day three (09 Oct) with arrival of the 06 Oct
CME.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

So Wednesday evening prime-time (EDT) CME arrival. I'm certain NOAA screwed up the coordinates for the cme source eruption- the longitude wasn't 'W43', but W12 as confirmed by Lockheed Solarsoft:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Lasco C2 movie....notice the faint halo and picture a huge blob of plasma in the middle which you can't see 'cause it's comin' right at ya.



[link to www.lmsal.com]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/07/2013 09:17 AM

Sharp rise in the X-Ray flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

A C2.3 from AR1856 again...GONG pic:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

I see 5 new Active Regions in the SE-
:10/7-5newARs:

Finally got my screenshot smilie of incoming CME Cone model-
:10/6-incomingCME:

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/07/2013 11:46 AM

Big chill: Climate guru puts 'global warming' on ice
News flash! The sun is actually causing the Earth to to get COOLER. Don't believe it? Find out what this famous climate guru has to say about the plunging temperatures headed our way.
Read the latest now on WND: [link to www.wnd.com]

snip:The problem is what they’re getting out of their computers is not fitting with what’s actually happening.

now who knew this?

NASA's CME arrival prediction is about 20 Hours later than NOAA's! Sometimes I think they just spin a roulette wheel and take a few side bets...IDK.

"Event Issue Date: 2013-10-06 17:28:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-10-09 18:42:27.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 29 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.8 Re"

I think that is because nasa are pushing gravity theory so if the cme does not fit there models they revise it until does whilst noaa just puts out the pure correct data with no agenda so they clash.

I was busy last month so I'm going through about 300 old emails. I found this important article that I missed from Sept. 11th. Pardon me if it already covered here-

No Evidence of Planetary Influence on Solar Activity
by Staff Writers
Washington DC (SPX) Sep 11, 2013

In 2012, Astronomy and Astrophysics published a statistical study of the isotopic records of solar activity, in which Abreu et al. claimed that there is evidence of planetary influence on solar activity. A&A is publishing a new analysis of these isotopic data by Cameron and Schussler. It corrects technical errors in the statistical tests performed by Abreu et al. They find no evidence of any planetary effect on solar activity. (snip)

In principle, the planets can affect the Sun by exerting tides (similar to terrestrial ocean tides caused by the moon), but these effects are extremely tiny (tide heights of a few millimeters, at most) in comparison to all other dynamical forces. Furthermore, detailed statistical analyses have time and again shown that apparent similarities between some planetary periods and solar activity variations were consistent with chance and were statistically insignificant.(snip)

In a new paper published in A&A, R. Cameron and M. Schussler, however, identify subtle technical errors in the statistical tests performed by Abreu et al. Correcting these errors reduces the statistical significance by many orders of magnitude to values consistent with a pure chance coincidence. The quasi-periods in the isotope data therefore provide no evidence that there is any planetary effect on solar activity.

more here:
[link to www.spacedaily.com]

The cited paper's abstract:
[link to www.aanda.org]

Spittin' Cesium (if you're out there) or someone should forward this to Suspicious Observers in case they missed it, too.

Howdy OJ I've found that both agencies are correct (or close) about 50% of the time; although it's obvious they use different methodologies and get sometimes wildly divergent conclusions. I merely report and comment on the inconsistencies but I do realize that accurate CME forecasting is an almost impossible task. Not too many years ago no one had a clue that a CME was coming. When the STEREO spacecraft were at 90 degree angles from SOHO it was much easier to calculate the velocity of the ejecta. Now the STEREO probes are much further on the far side (and the images shut down 10-12 hrs a day), so it's getting harder to see what's coming at Earth.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/07/2013 12:41 PM

Looking at the SDO images (beginning @15:00) I noticed a lot of interaction and coronal dimming between 1856 and 1857. The dimming (or hole?) occurred right on the equator and there appears to be plasma streaming a long way toward the west. This looks very unusual to me, but I've rarely seen two ARs of opposite polarity so close to the equator before.

SDO:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Equatorial Disturbance near 1856 & '57-
:10/7-dimming:
:10/7-EVE:

Very interesting will have to keep an eye on that interaction thanks hugh

Magnetosphere is wacky again...

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I would agree, the polarity of division , what a concept and energy to try and understand. Well we'll do our best HME, good catches on all these transfers.

I've had that happen too, its like withdrawal reaction, lol