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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 02:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
What was the page for the magnetic model for earth, the one where it shows up the tangling and pressures. Tried to find that but cant just remember. Would appriciate :)
 Quoting: Dodo 79721072


[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

hf
 Quoting: Simple27


oh ya, that one is easier than through the iswa app..

clappa
LazyGringo
Simple27

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12/09/2020 03:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
thumbs
~*Ride the Wave*~
RubyV82

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12/09/2020 03:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 03:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
 Quoting: RubyV82


I have felt it in the past..

Lots of previous and current posters do, go back a couple pages, we discussed it a little..
LazyGringo
RubyV82

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12/09/2020 03:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
 Quoting: RubyV82


I have felt it in the past..

Lots of previous and current posters do, go back a couple pages, we discussed it a little..
 Quoting: OpenEnded..


Thank you hf
Anonymous Coward
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12/09/2020 03:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
 Quoting: RubyV82


Bien SURE!!

https://imgur.com/0DSopuW
OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 03:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
 Quoting: RubyV82


I have felt it in the past..

Lots of previous and current posters do, go back a couple pages, we discussed it a little..
 Quoting: OpenEnded..


Thank you hf
 Quoting: RubyV82


de nada, and welcome aboard Ruby..
LazyGringo
Helios Maximus

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12/09/2020 03:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Still awaiting CME impact. I'm watching ACE SWEPAM data.

Looks like a minor effect of coronal hole stream-- gradual rise in Solar wind speed, mostly negative Bz and very low proton density.

CME could arrive any time within the next 6 hours... or maybe never. We've seen them mysteriously vanish before.

ACE data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Anonymous Coward
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12/09/2020 03:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
We've seen them mysteriously vanish before.


 Quoting: Helios Maximus


SOMETIME Them work in mysterious way chuckle
OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 03:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
if you want the real time Ace data, go to the bottom of this page..

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

the speed and density come first (you have to refresh and scroll to bottom every time)

3 minutes til the spacex launch btw..

[link to godlike.com (secure)]

Last Edited by OpenEnded.. on 12/09/2020 04:01 PM
LazyGringo
Simple27

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12/09/2020 05:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
 Quoting: RubyV82


I can't yet, but I'm expecting to. Are you feeling it now?
~*Ride the Wave*~
joinca

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12/09/2020 06:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
joinca

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12/09/2020 07:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 07:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
still not here? weird..
LazyGringo
Dodo
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12/09/2020 08:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Noticed the estimate plot going nuts, so decided to check :

Plot :
[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com (secure)]

Observed sunspots monthly, when your starting number is around 7, it takes almoust 4 years to get steady 90+ spots / month. Now the plot shows that level year from now.

To get from 7 to steady 40 spots/month, it takes 3 years. If december keeps on pushing we're lookin 40 now, or close. August was 7 starter.

[link to www.sws.bom.gov.au (secure)]
Helios Maximus

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12/09/2020 08:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SUDDEN IMPULSE detected at ACE--

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

siren2wtfdoom
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
“Amateur WeatherTard”

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12/09/2020 08:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Question. Can someone link me to the CME Cone model, the one that shows the CME in that circling animation? Not the one that solarham uses but the classic circling CME model. I need to bookmark that shit, I can’t find it if my life depended on it.
Helios Maximus

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12/09/2020 08:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
We a simultaneous jump in velocity, density and temperature. Speed leapt from 440 to 580 km/s. Density is still quite low for a CME, but we still have a day too go.

My initial visual analysis of the ejection appeared to hurl most of the dense plasma below the Sun-Earth line. I can't believe the NASA Enlil model missed that.

mag-plasmatail
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
joinca

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12/09/2020 08:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Helios Maximus

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12/09/2020 08:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Question. Can someone link me to the CME Cone model, the one that shows the CME in that circling animation? Not the one that solarham uses but the classic circling CME model. I need to bookmark that shit, I can’t find it if my life depended on it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Howdy, old friend!

There are many models there, but here's the common one.

Enlil NASA CME cone-

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 09:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
It's heeeere...

johnny

02:11:00.000","20.58","575.6"

Last Edited by OpenEnded.. on 12/09/2020 09:16 PM
LazyGringo
joinca

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12/09/2020 09:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by joinca on 12/09/2020 09:19 PM
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 09:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on December 7th passed the DSCOVR spacecraft at approximately 01:29 UTC (Dec 10). An impact past Earth is expected within the hour. The Solar wind speed is currently near 600 km/s. A geomagnetic storm warning will be in effect for the next 48 hours. The strength of the potential storm will all depend on certain characteristics of the solar wind including the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Should it point south for a longer duration, this could help to intensify geomagnetic activity and aurora. Middle to high latitude sky watchers should be alert once it is dark outside. More to follow.

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]
LazyGringo
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12/09/2020 09:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Weaker than expected coronal hole impact. Weaker than expected come impact=magnetic field shrugged this off easy
Anonymous Coward
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12/09/2020 09:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Weaker than expected coronal hole impact. Weaker than expected come impact=magnetic field shrugged this off easy
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77713810


I would also not discount the cme completely overtaking the coronal hole. It was not 600 km/s as expected so the cme likely overtook it. If the temp and speed continue to rise it may be the coronal hole... In which case the come could still impact
OpenEnded..

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Weaker than expected coronal hole impact. Weaker than expected come impact=magnetic field shrugged this off easy
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77713810


they come in like tsunamis, in waves..

this is just the first little wave showing up.. Nobody knows how good/bad it will get really (to a defined point) though many think they do..

way too early to make any judgements on strength for now..
LazyGringo
Helios Maximus

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12/09/2020 09:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Weaker than expected coronal hole impact. Weaker than expected come impact=magnetic field shrugged this off easy
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77713810


Weaker than expected coronal hole impact. Weaker than expected come impact=magnetic field shrugged this off easy
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77713810


I would also not discount the cme completely overtaking the coronal hole. It was not 600 km/s as expected so the cme likely overtook it. If the temp and speed continue to rise it may be the coronal hole... In which case the come could still impact
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77713810


You make great points there. cheers

I can't help but notice that DSCVR reports twice the proton density of ACE (20-<10p/cm3). Also, NOAA neglected to issue a Sudden Impulse Alert and it's been over 1 hour.

May be a nothing-burger or maybe more to come.....
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 09:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Question. Can someone link me to the CME Cone model, the one that shows the CME in that circling animation? Not the one that solarham uses but the classic circling CME model. I need to bookmark that shit, I can’t find it if my life depended on it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


you mean the iswa or the enlil? can you be more specific?

you should make a thread on this impact for the pinners, btw..

Thanks in advance geo, get prep'd..

eq
LazyGringo
OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 10:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Noticed the estimate plot going nuts, so decided to check :

Plot :
[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com (secure)]

Observed sunspots monthly, when your starting number is around 7, it takes almoust 4 years to get steady 90+ spots / month. Now the plot shows that level year from now.

To get from 7 to steady 40 spots/month, it takes 3 years. If december keeps on pushing we're lookin 40 now, or close. August was 7 starter.

[link to www.sws.bom.gov.au (secure)]
 Quoting: Dodo 79721072


it's definitely an anomalous start to the solar cycle..

no complaints though, 2020 has been pretty boring so far..
LazyGringo
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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12/09/2020 10:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Question. Can someone link me to the CME Cone model, the one that shows the CME in that circling animation? Not the one that solarham uses but the classic circling CME model. I need to bookmark that shit, I can’t find it if my life depended on it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Howdy, old friend!

There are many models there, but here's the common one.

Enlil NASA CME cone-

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Thank you!





GLP