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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
“Amateur WeatherTard”

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12/09/2020 10:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Question. Can someone link me to the CME Cone model, the one that shows the CME in that circling animation? Not the one that solarham uses but the classic circling CME model. I need to bookmark that shit, I can’t find it if my life depended on it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


you mean the iswa or the enlil? can you be more specific?

you should make a thread on this impact for the pinners, btw..

Thanks in advance geo, get prep'd..

eq
 Quoting: OpenEnded..


Thanks. It was answered one page before this. This is the one I was talking about....


[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]
Simple27

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12/09/2020 10:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
THE CME HAS ARRIVED, BUT NO STORM YET: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 10th (1:30 UT), suddenly raising the solar wind velocity around our planet to nearly 600 km/s. So far, the impact has not triggered a geomagnetic storm. However, there is still a chance of storms in the hours ahead as Earth moves through the CME's turbulet wake. Stay tuned.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
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Simple27

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12/09/2020 10:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
CME Passage Detected

December 10, 2020 @ 01:50 UTC (UPDATED)


[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]
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Simple27

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12/09/2020 10:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
https://imgur.com/hgA6sl2

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Simple27

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12/09/2020 10:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
https://imgur.com/gRiUVXa

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Simple27

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12/09/2020 10:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Current Geomagnetic Overview

https://imgur.com/tlsDg6l


https://imgur.com/bcIMdAh


https://imgur.com/SGeZiGw


https://imgur.com/w2RKF30

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Simple27

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12/09/2020 10:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
https://imgur.com/5IKLdXL

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Simple27

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12/09/2020 10:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
 Quoting: RubyV82


I can't yet, but I'm expecting to. Are you feeling it now?
 Quoting: Simple27


Ears are popping like crazy right now. Almost to the point of painful.
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Anonymous Coward
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12/09/2020 11:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
CME Passage Detected

December 10, 2020 @ 01:50 UTC (UPDATED)


[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]
 Quoting: Simple27


Looks like it is a single impact. Speed and temp are dropping off already. Kp5 looks like peak storm.
Anonymous Coward
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12/09/2020 11:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
 Quoting: RubyV82


I can't yet, but I'm expecting to. Are you feeling it now?
 Quoting: Simple27


Ears are popping like crazy right now. Almost to the point of painful.
 Quoting: Simple27


Hey simple, I am always in your EQ thread

Ears were popping driving around LA, valley area. 1 hour ago
Simple27

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12/09/2020 11:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
https://imgur.com/JulMbb4

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Simple27

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12/09/2020 11:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
 Quoting: RubyV82


I can't yet, but I'm expecting to. Are you feeling it now?
 Quoting: Simple27


Ears are popping like crazy right now. Almost to the point of painful.
 Quoting: Simple27


Hey simple, I am always in your EQ thread

Ears were popping driving around LA, valley area. 1 hour ago
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 65853998


hugs

Oddly enough, I don't think I am EQ-sensitive. But I have had solar-sensitive symptoms in the past, and right now the pressure is real.
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OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 11:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
 Quoting: RubyV82


I can't yet, but I'm expecting to. Are you feeling it now?
 Quoting: Simple27


Ears are popping like crazy right now. Almost to the point of painful.
 Quoting: Simple27


i think i feel it..

also, the dogs ears are up..
LazyGringo
OpenEnded..

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12/09/2020 11:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
CME Passage Detected

December 10, 2020 @ 01:50 UTC (UPDATED)


[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]
 Quoting: Simple27


Looks like it is a single impact. Speed and temp are dropping off already. Kp5 looks like peak storm.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77713810


easy now, this just started..
LazyGringo
Helios Maximus

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12/09/2020 11:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


Nice work, my friend. Thanks for the info. hismile_kiss

Very weak CME... the G3 and G4 predictions look absurd now.

My ears are popping from the very fake news cycle in the USA, LOL.

I'm happy to see you and other veterans of Cycle 24 dust off their old skills and report data and stay ahead of the curve as always on GLP.

Keep up the great work, Simple!
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Cosmo888

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12/10/2020 12:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Can you guys feel the energy?
 Quoting: RubyV82


I can't yet, but I'm expecting to. Are you feeling it now?
 Quoting: Simple27


Ears are popping like crazy right now. Almost to the point of painful.
 Quoting: Simple27


dense cosmic radio active dark solar material
Miguel
Cosmo888

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12/10/2020 12:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
CME Passage Detected

December 10, 2020 @ 01:50 UTC (UPDATED)


[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]
 Quoting: Simple27


Looks like it is a single impact. Speed and temp are dropping off already. Kp5 looks like peak storm.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77713810


easy now, this just started..
 Quoting: OpenEnded..


48 hours minimum ringing if not 72
Miguel
Helios Maximus

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12/10/2020 12:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The chimps at NOAA finally saw my post 3 HOURS LATER!


Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 226
Issue Time: 2020 Dec 10 0447 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2020 Dec 10 0211 UTC
Deviation: 30 nT
Station: BOU


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

3Chimps
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Isis One

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12/10/2020 12:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
UofM model showing some action..

https://imgur.com/NlEw2v8

 Quoting: OpenEnded..


That’s the one I was trying to remember! Thanks OE.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Isis One

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12/10/2020 12:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
best one, nict, is gone.

you can get good ones by launching
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

then go to magneosphere, then page 8 and 9..

also, this one is pretty good

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
 Quoting: OpenEnded..


Another good one.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Isis One

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12/10/2020 12:16 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Noticed the estimate plot going nuts, so decided to check :

Plot :
[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com (secure)]

Observed sunspots monthly, when your starting number is around 7, it takes almoust 4 years to get steady 90+ spots / month. Now the plot shows that level year from now.

To get from 7 to steady 40 spots/month, it takes 3 years. If december keeps on pushing we're lookin 40 now, or close. August was 7 starter.

[link to www.sws.bom.gov.au (secure)]
 Quoting: Dodo 79721072


Nice analysis.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
OpenEnded..

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12/10/2020 12:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
a little red starting in fairbanks..


LazyGringo
Isis One

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12/10/2020 12:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Question. Can someone link me to the CME Cone model, the one that shows the CME in that circling animation? Not the one that solarham uses but the classic circling CME model. I need to bookmark that shit, I can’t find it if my life depended on it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Howdy, old friend!

There are many models there, but here's the common one.

Enlil NASA CME cone-

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


I think those magnetic field lines reconnecting might push the cme south of us.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
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12/10/2020 12:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
CME Passage Detected

December 10, 2020 @ 01:50 UTC (UPDATED)


[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]
 Quoting: Simple27


Looks like it is a single impact. Speed and temp are dropping off already. Kp5 looks like peak storm.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 77713810


easy now, this just started..
 Quoting: OpenEnded..


48 hours minimum ringing if not 72
 Quoting: Cosmo888


Yes, but with such a weak magnetometer disturbance from the initial density shock and no likely second impact scenario, it is hard to see any sudden increase in instability from the imf or bz at this point.
Simple27

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12/10/2020 12:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

~*Ride the Wave*~
OpenEnded..

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12/10/2020 12:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
UofM model showing some action..

https://imgur.com/NlEw2v8

 Quoting: OpenEnded..


That’s the one I was trying to remember! Thanks OE.
 Quoting: Isis One


you're certainly welcome, M'lady..
LazyGringo
Simple27

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12/10/2020 12:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

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OpenEnded..

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12/10/2020 12:36 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
bowshock and wake look stable so far..

https://imgur.com/KEzUPRa

LazyGringo
Isis One

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12/10/2020 12:44 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Bow shock is hot hot hot though!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
OpenEnded..

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12/10/2020 12:46 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
so, I found this on a tweet by an enthusiast...

"There is no doubt that the CME erupted from the Sun with a WNE configuration, so no Bz south!"

does this make sense? Hugh?
LazyGringo





GLP