SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

:hidetomato:

https://imgur.com/OXFiepJ

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

PROTON EVENT POTENTIAL SWPC issues warnings for this event.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 474
Issue Time: 2021 May 29 0043 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2021 May 29 0042 UTC
Valid To: 2021 May 29 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 549
Issue Time: 2021 May 29 0025 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 May 28 2301 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1087
Issue Time: 2021 May 29 0024 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 May 28 2303 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2087 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Before they took their nap NASA's SoHO and STEREO (shouldn't they rename it MONO?) had some interesting data coming in.

SoHO Soft X-ray Monitor:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

SECCHI's Impact Solar Particle Detection:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

ACE High Energy Protons Going Vertical!!

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

ACE EPAM (low energy electrons and protons):

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

All signatures of an incoming Radiation Storm. Warn those Chinamen, Russians and Americans in orbit.

Given where it's located, i don't see anything big happening

WOW! This will certainly be geoeffective to some degree. Events near the west limb are more connected to Earth due to the Parker Spiral. All of these indications are pretty extreme for a C-flare (or 'low level activity' as NOAA calls it, hehe).

X-rays have been above C 1 level for more than 3 solid hours. I hope NOAA isn't monkeying with the X-ray data like they do with climate data. This looks more like an M5 or 6 to me. Maybe it's because we haven't seen these type events since 2017. We'll see many more as Cycle 25 progresses.

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 05/28/2021 09:51 PM

GOES data now showing a proton spike, near warning level.

GOES Protons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

https://imgur.com/IbeG0zy

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Eskimo Ham radio operators are hearing a lot of static.

I like how after AR2826 is born it immediately chooses to manifest into a figure 8

https://imgur.com/hVVdwIu

The hashish-smokin', craft beer drinkin' nerds at SWPC have misattributed the flares source to 2826.Lockheed and SIDC seems to differ. But, hey, it's a holiday weekend.... who cares. Cue the dancing chimps...



:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 May 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels during the period with B-class
and C-class activity from Region 2826 (N23W87, Dko/Beta) and Region 2824
(N19W68, Dho/beta). The largest event was a long duration C9 x-ray event
observed at 28/2313 UTC from Region 2826. Associated with the flare was
an EIT wave observed in SUVI 195 imagery at 28/2244 UTC. Modelling of a
likely CME from this event will be performed as imagery become
available.

.Forecast...
For 29 May, C-class flare activity is likely with a slight chance
for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout conditions. There is a chance
for C-class flare activity on 30 May, and a slight chance for C-class
activity on 31 May, as both Regions 2824 and 2826 rotate beyond the west
limb.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 May 28 2303 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 2087 km/s

I can't recall ever seeing a speed like before. It may have happened a few times in Cycle 24, but I don't remember it. That's 1000 miles per second!!! Imagine flying from NYC to LA in 3 seconds. That's faster than Scotty's transporter on Star Trek.



Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 05/28/2021 11:37 PM

[link to www.space.com (secure)]

On July 23, the sun blasted a massive cloud of solar material, called a coronal mass ejection(CME), into space, sending it whipping by NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft. Scientists used STEREO's observations to calculate that the speedy CME was traveling between 1,800 and 2,200 miles per second (2,900 and 3,540 kilometers per second).

That's about 6.48 million to 7.92 million miles per hour (10.43 million and 12.75 million kilometers per hour).

The CME's blistering pace makes it the fastest one ever seen by STEREO (short for Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory), and one of the fastest solar outbursts clocked by any spacecraft, the researchers said.

GOES Protons have surpassed the warning threshold. We're officially in an S1 radiation storm now.

GOES Proton Flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX1
Serial Number: 318
Issue Time: 2021 May 29 0319 UTC

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2021 May 29 0300 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

I do remember that CME, but Radio Emissions are not analogous to a CME velocity. In my experience I believe CME velocity to be roughly half of the radio emission speed. Even so,a CME velocity of 8-900 km/s would be over-achieving for a C-flare.

The CME you cited was touted as a near-miss Carrington Event. We are overdue for such an event, but don't tell Elon Musk.

SDO 24-hr movie shows there ain't no doubt that AR2824 was the source of the flare. DEFUND NOAA!!!

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

Solarsoft's nice close-up movie of flare in AIA 0193 wavelength:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com (secure)]


Location map (somebody send to NOAA)-
[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]


CME cloud is huge!
:5/29/21-CME:

Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 05/29/2021 01:07 AM

Impressive CME from the eruptive C9.4 Solarflare. The projected speed was estimated at around 1200 km/s.

https://imgur.com/a/tHbbAro

CACTus - Type II Halo with a velocity of 880 km/s.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

SEEDS Movie:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Looks like it's wide right, a possible glancing blow at Earth.

NASA DONKI says the speed is 815 km.
[link to kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

880 isn't that fast.