SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Hiya, Simple!

Yes, a possible Earth-directed CME from the C3 flare near mid-disk.

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

SolarDemon movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Also, a new sunspot is growing in the NE and has already produced a B7 flare.

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Things are beginning to heat up again. Don't take your eyes off of AR2860; it looks potentially explosive to me and is nearing the prime geoeffective location.

NOAA/SWPC Discussion--

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2859 (N16E06, Dso/beta) produced a C3/1F
flare at 26/1818 UTC. A second C1/Sf flare occurred shortly later at
26/1901 UTC while the G16 X-rays were in recovery toward a low B
background. Region 2860 (S30E14, Dao/beta) was quiet most of the period,
but produced a C3/SN flare at 26/2322 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep at 26/2329 UTC. The region grew in heliographic extent as
the spread between its trailing and leading spots widened. New Region
NOAA/SWPC Region 2861 (N15E53, Bxo/beta) was assigned, but remained
unremarkable. We are awaiting updated SOHO/LASCO imagery to determine if
there was a CME associated with the 1818 UTC event. No other new
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity on 27-29 Aug.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1095
Issue Time: 2021 Aug 27 0012 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 26 2329 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 691 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 239 Issued at 0030Z on 27 Aug 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 26 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2859 N16E06 011 0050 Dso 01 04 Beta
2860 S30E14 003 0150 Dao 06 12 Beta
2861 N15E53 323 0010 Bxo 00 01 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 26/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 27 Aug to 29 Aug
Nmbr Lat Lo
2856 N14 254

AR2860 images:

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Another new sunspot group has appeared near the SW limb and has produced a C 1 flare:

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

SolarDemon movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

NOAA Update-

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Aug 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low with four numbered regions currently on the disk.
Region 2859 (N18W00, Cso/beta) produced a C3/1F flare at 26/1818 UTC.
Associated with this flare was a partial-halo CME, first visible in
LASCO C2 imagery at 26/1900 UTC. The region exhibited some decay in the
trailer portion of the region.

The largest region on the disk, Region 2860 (S29E09, Dki/beta-gamma),
produced a C1/Sf at 26/1901 UTC and a C3/Sn at 26/2322 UTC. Associated
with the second flare was a Type II radio sweep along with low level,
multi-frequency radio emissions. The region displayed rapid growth, both
in area and spot count, and exhibited mixed polarities within the leader
portion of the group.

Region 2861 (N15E47, Bxo/beta) produced some B-class activity, but was
otherwise stable. New Region 2862 (S29W62, Bxo/beta) was numbered during
the period and was quiet and stable.

Initial analysis, and subsequent model output, suggests the 26/1818 UTC
CME possibly has a potential Earth-directed component. However, more
analysis is ongoing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
R1-Minor flare activity on 27-29 Aug. These increased levels are due to
the rapid growth and complexity of Region 2860.

**********
Cactus analysis of yesterday's CME:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Geomagnetic storm possible.

Strong auroral oval near Iceland and Scandinavia...

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Antarctica, too!

[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]



Last Edited by Helios Maximus on 08/27/2021 01:46 PM

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 3924
Issue Time: 2021 Aug 27 1614 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Aug 27 1615 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Aug 28 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Solar Wind polarity dipped the Bz South to -14!!

Although the weak transient had only minor speed and density enhancements, the Bz is the most important factor in geoeffectiveness. If it stays this far South a storm is very likely.

Solar Wind plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 1608
Issue Time: 2021 Aug 27 1753 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2021 Aug 27 1800 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Aug 28 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.


GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

https://imgur.com/a/FoIg6e1

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Last Edited by Ostria1 on 08/27/2021 03:48 PM

Been watching this. Does not look good nor normal at all.

yes i dont remember seen it like that before. And check the charts too.

Bad feeling it’s going to be lights out…

Damn, been a lurker on this thread and others regarding magnetosphere for years. Never seen it look like that.

I have felt super weird today. I have a buzzing/vibrating in my teeth, very magnetic feeling. SUper strange and can not get enough water/hydration.

This is a graphic that "Suspicious Observers" Ben Davidson
created to give us the heads-up on PHYSICAL EFFECTS of
higher scale geomagnetic events. You will notice that if
there is a GEOSTORM at level "5" (right side of graph)...
we can expect some physical symptoms from it. This is
especially true if you are "solar sensitives" as many
on GLP claim to believe they are now. (I'm a negative
Rh factor blood type and I believe folks with this blood
type are more "sensitive" than most.)

:CosmicRAhealth:

Just a heads-up for "SOLAR SENSITIVES" tomorrow.


The Oracle's Cookie

I feel a bit upset today but i guess it is altogether.

I see Xrays growing
[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

ISS is working ok so far
[link to iss.stormway.ru]

Relax, folks, a minor CME impact in outer space is not vibrating your teeth or anything else here on Earth. That iSWA model is showing a mostly peaceful magnetosphere. No doom here (yet).

AR2860 has produced a C 1.7 flare.

GONG pic:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

SolarDemon movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

AR2860 is now directly facing Earth, so any major events (M, X, CME) in the next few days will likely be geoeffective.

I have this feeling that a strong one will hit us soon. Maybe not a Carrington strong one but a significant one.

It's about time for solar doom again. Just a feeling.

Eruptive C6 flare in progress from 2860.

X-Ray Flux plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

GONG pic:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

Howdy, old friend! As I recall, your hunches had a high success rate ;)

I agree we're overdue for a good proton storm, lol.

Flare peaked at C7.48 and may be Long Duration Event (LDE).

Any CME would be directly aimed at Earth (unless it ain't, haha).

SolarDemon movie of C7 flare:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Some minor dimming observed but images are still being processed:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

I'm going to take a shower and wait for the coronagraph images to come in.

Watch STEREO for any hints of a CME:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Bz - 14, that's wild. It would seem that big iron ball in the middle of our planet isn't doing his job very well.
Thanks a ton for the info!

That is...different

Look at it now. It’s fucked beyond belief.