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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Simple27

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08/27/2021 06:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Look at it now. It’s fucked beyond belief.
 Quoting: Oxidizer



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Simple27

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08/27/2021 06:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
https://imgur.com/KW07JQd


[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
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Broose
Beach

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08/27/2021 08:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The KP was mostly red during the peak intensity of hurricane Dorian.
Helios Maximus

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08/27/2021 10:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The C7 LDE flare kept the x-ray flux in the C-level for nearly 3 hours. Chances of an M-flare soon is increasing.

NOAA Update-

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was low. Regions 2860 (S28E03, Eki/beta-gamma) and 2862
(S28W67, Bxo/beta) each produced C-class flare activity this period.
Region 2860 exhibited growth throughout the period while the remaining
regions were mostly stable. No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to reach low levels, with a slight chance for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, over 28-30 Aug.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 240 Issued at 0030Z on 28 Aug 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2859 N17W07 011 0050 Cso 03 06 Beta
2860 S28E03 001 0330 Eki 12 22 Beta-Gamma
2861 N15E38 326 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2862 S28W67 071 0050 Bxo 05 04 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 28 Aug to 30 Aug
Nmbr Lat Lo
2856 N14 254

Latest HMI Magnetogram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
'Ken Oath

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08/28/2021 01:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
an active sunspot

incoming

9102014ispenguins
'Ken Oath

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08/28/2021 02:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
m class

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

5a
RubyV82

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08/28/2021 04:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: 'Ken Oath


I got notifications one m class 2 hours ago and then another 1 hour ago!
WhiteAngel
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08/28/2021 05:49 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
The C7 LDE flare kept the x-ray flux in the C-level for nearly 3 hours. Chances of an M-flare soon is increasing.

NOAA Update-

Solar Activity 24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was low. Regions 2860 (S28E03, Eki/beta-gamma) and 2862
(S28W67, Bxo/beta) each produced C-class flare activity this period.
Region 2860 exhibited growth throughout the period while the remaining
regions were mostly stable. No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to reach low levels, with a slight chance for
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, over 28-30 Aug.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 240 Issued at 0030Z on 28 Aug 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Aug
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2859 N17W07 011 0050 Cso 03 06 Beta
2860 S28E03 001 0330 Eki 12 22 Beta-Gamma
2861 N15E38 326 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2862 S28W67 071 0050 Bxo 05 04 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Aug
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 28 Aug to 30 Aug
Nmbr Lat Lo
2856 N14 254

Latest HMI Magnetogram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


We need a BGD

Been a long while for that my old friend

Last Edited by WhiteAngel on 08/28/2021 05:50 AM
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Oxidizer

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08/28/2021 08:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Folks, tomatoes in. It’s probably go time.
darylandcat.com
Helios Maximus

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08/28/2021 10:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Sneaky old Sol waited for me to go to sleep to pop off.....

M4.7

Luckily for Earth the CME doesn't look too bad, but it is coming our way. Remember, the Carrington Event was caused by multiple CMEs piling up.

STEREO A Diff movie:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Cactus movie shows a faint full halo:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

explosionahhhabomb
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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08/28/2021 10:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 550
Issue Time: 2021 Aug 28 0643 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0615 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1097
Issue Time: 2021 Aug 28 0633 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0604 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 276 km/s


NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

-------------------------------------------------------------​-------------------

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 1096
Issue Time: 2021 Aug 28 0611 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0509 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 723 km/s

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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08/28/2021 11:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Images from SDO interestingly show the eruption began before the actual x-ray flare event. Also, a secondary flare is clearly seen in the trailing spot area. Nice.

SolarDemon movie of M4.7 flare:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

Solar TsunamI- A huge shockwave and coronal dimming can be seen in this difference movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

shocked
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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08/28/2021 11:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Latest Bulletin from SIDC (Belgium)--

SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Aug 2021, 1232UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 28 Aug 2021 until 30 Aug 2021)
SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Aug 2021 10CM FLUX: 092 / AP: 019
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Aug 2021 10CM FLUX: 091 / AP: 010
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Aug 2021 10CM FLUX: 090 / AP: 019
COMMENT: During last 24 the solar flaring activity significantly increased,
with number of C-class and even one M-class flare reported. Although there
are four active regions presently observed on the visible side of the Sun
(NOAA ARs 2859, 2860, 2861 and 2862) majority of the flaring activity
originated from the NOAA AR 2860 which presently has beta-gamma
configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. In the coming hours we
expect C-class flares but also M-class flares (in particular from NOAA AR
2860).
The M4.7 flare, which originated from NOAA AR 2860, peaked at 06:11 UT on
August 28. The flare was associated with the coronal dimming and EIT wave,
the on disc signatures of the CME. There are presently only two available
coronagraph images, and they show that associated CME is possibly partial
halo which means that this CME could arrive to Earth. More will be reported
when data become available.


Read the full bulletin and forecast here:
[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

SIDC homepage has lots of resources for Solar Watchers:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]

University of Bradford forecasts a 16% chance for X-flares in the next 24 hours:

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Simple27

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08/28/2021 11:31 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

~*Ride the Wave*~
Simple27

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08/28/2021 11:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: 'Ken Oath


I got notifications one m class 2 hours ago and then another 1 hour ago!
 Quoting: RubyV82


There was a C7.0 about an hour before the M4.7. But just one official M flare. :)

[link to www.lmsal.com (secure)]

hf
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Anonymous Coward
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08/28/2021 11:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


I was just thinking of this colored rendition, that you posted the other day, after watching Hugh's post/movie on the M4.7

You guys are awesome, keeping this thread real time

hf
Simple27

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08/28/2021 11:53 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
grouphug
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Simple27

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08/28/2021 11:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 Quoting: KickinIt

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The Oracle's Cookie

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08/28/2021 12:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


I was just thinking of this colored rendition, that you posted the other day, after watching Hugh's post/movie on the M4.7

You guys are awesome, keeping this thread real time

hf
 Quoting: Begin Again.


Wow! Really LOVE that animation showing the CME and
"HYDRA-Flare." Isn't this actually the SECOND CME and
Hydra-Flare we have had in the past few days?

Ben Davidson of "SuspiciousObservers dot org" really
nails it with his report today 8-28-2021...Here ya go!


[link to youtu.be (secure)]
FairUSE

NOTE:
These kinds of solar events are KNOWN to accelerate
existing STORMS--such as Hurricane Ida--so be watching
for up-ticks in Hurricane strength if you are in the
path of this storm.


Thanks for keeping the thread up-dated, everyone!

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie
Simple27

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08/28/2021 12:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
https://imgur.com/fNjNvy8


[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]
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Helios Maximus

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08/28/2021 01:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


Direct hit... but apparently very low density. It will definitely spark some good auroras though.

NOAA Update--

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Region 2860 (S28W03, Ekc/beta-gamma)
produced an M4/1n flare at 28/0611 UTC, with associated Type II and Type
IV radio sweeps. Region 2860 also produced a C7/Sn flare at 28/0505,
with an associated Type II radio sweep. Region 2860 showed signs of
penumbral development in its intermediate spots. Region 2862 (S28W74,
Bxo/beta) produced C-class flare activity early in the period as it
rotated closer to the west limb. Regions 2859 (N17W13, Cso/beta) and
2861 (N15E32, Axx/alpha) were stable and absent of significant flare
activity. Due to the source regions location and the radio signatures
from the M4 flare, there is a strong possibility of an Earth-directed
transient. Forecasters are awaiting coronagraph imagery to further
assess any potential Earth-directed CMEs.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, throughout the forecast period (28-30
Aug) due to the recent activity from Region 2860.

***************

God help us if we ever get a super-fast massive CME. The coronagraphs take 6 or 7 hours to update and SWPC needs another 20 hours to analyze the data and provide a forecast. The power grids could become toast before the warnings ever get out! We need better real-time data, especially as we near Solar Max periods.
burnitrant
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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08/28/2021 01:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


I was just thinking of this colored rendition, that you posted the other day, after watching Hugh's post/movie on the M4.7

You guys are awesome, keeping this thread real time

hf
 Quoting: Begin Again.


Wow! Really LOVE that animation showing the CME and
"HYDRA-Flare." Isn't this actually the SECOND CME and
Hydra-Flare we have had in the past few days?

Ben Davidson of "SuspiciousObservers dot org" really
nails it with his report today 8-28-2021...Here ya go!


[link to youtu.be (secure)]
FairUSE

NOTE:
These kinds of solar events are KNOWN to accelerate
existing STORMS--such as Hurricane Ida
--so be watching
for up-ticks in Hurricane strength if you are in the
path of this storm.


Thanks for keeping the thread up-dated, everyone!

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie
 Quoting: The Oracle's Cookie


I need to disagree with assertion that moderate solar flares (or weak CMEs) have any effect whatsoever on tropical cyclones. Mr. Davidson cites a middle school science project about coronal holes....c'mon, man.

Hurricane Ida was already forecast to rapidly intensify as it entered the warm waters of the GoM (long before we saw any flares).

Of course in the long haul, solar activity cycles have an undeniable relation to climate patterns; but individual events do not change the weather nor cause tectonic plates to move suddenly.

SO does some good reporting on solar events but his theories are mostly pseudo-science and fear-mongering.

By the way, what is a HYDRA-flare? Do you mean Hyder flare?
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Simple27

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08/28/2021 03:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
MAJOR FLARE WARNING: Sunspot AR2860 is big, angry, and it's directly facing Earth. The active region just unleashed a significant M4.7-class solar flare (Aug. 28 @ 0611 UT), probably hurling a CME toward Earth. If current trends continue, a major X-flare could be in the offing, so stay tuned.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
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Level 99 Doomtard

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08/28/2021 04:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
MAJOR FLARE WARNING: Sunspot AR2860 is big, angry, and it's directly facing Earth. The active region just unleashed a significant M4.7-class solar flare (Aug. 28 @ 0611 UT), probably hurling a CME toward Earth. If current trends continue, a major X-flare could be in the offing, so stay tuned.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Simple27


clappa
Simple27

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08/28/2021 04:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
https://imgur.com/HNzOjAf

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Reluctant energy

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08/28/2021 04:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I've been watching this thread a whole lot more the last couple days something told me told me to keep a watch on the sun. As wonky as the magnetosphere's been lately a couple good Ms with an X could cause some trouble.
Helping Humanity is always the Tyrants Alibi
Broose
Beach

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08/28/2021 05:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


I was just thinking of this colored rendition, that you posted the other day, after watching Hugh's post/movie on the M4.7

You guys are awesome, keeping this thread real time

hf
 Quoting: Begin Again.


Wow! Really LOVE that animation showing the CME and
"HYDRA-Flare." Isn't this actually the SECOND CME and
Hydra-Flare we have had in the past few days?

Ben Davidson of "SuspiciousObservers dot org" really
nails it with his report today 8-28-2021...Here ya go!


[link to youtu.be (secure)]
FairUSE

NOTE:
These kinds of solar events are KNOWN to accelerate
existing STORMS--such as Hurricane Ida
--so be watching
for up-ticks in Hurricane strength if you are in the
path of this storm.


Thanks for keeping the thread up-dated, everyone!

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie
 Quoting: The Oracle's Cookie


I need to disagree with assertion that moderate solar flares (or weak CMEs) have any effect whatsoever on tropical cyclones. Mr. Davidson cites a middle school science project about coronal holes....c'mon, man.

Hurricane Ida was already forecast to rapidly intensify as it entered the warm waters of the GoM (long before we saw any flares).

Of course in the long haul, solar activity cycles have an undeniable relation to climate patterns; but individual events do not change the weather nor cause tectonic plates to move suddenly.

SO does some good reporting on solar events but his theories are mostly pseudo-science and fear-mongering.

By the way, what is a HYDRA-flare? Do you mean Hyder flare?
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Can't upload the image. Search images; kp index hurricane dorian. The kp lines up with the intensity. Ive seen the same in other tropical cyclones. Obviously other factors play a role.
Simple27

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08/28/2021 05:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

~*Ride the Wave*~
Ostria1

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08/28/2021 05:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Just had a deja vu

28 August – 2 September 1859

hiding
Ostria
WhiteAngel
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08/28/2021 05:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Just had a deja vu

28 August – 2 September 1859

hiding
 Quoting: Ostria1


Dang Ostria, had no idea you were there.......lol hiding

You know I am kidding and love ya
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One





GLP