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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Helios Maximus

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12/14/2021 08:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
NOAA can't count sunspots just because they're visible, they need to analyze and categorize them before it's 'official'. What a hoax organization!

AR2907 is probably Beta-Gamma-Delta (but not officially). ARs 2908 & 2909 (yes, I'm naming them, dammit) look like tired old husks after launching all of the those M-flares and CMEs on the far side. Maybe they'll recharge and give us a good show....who knows?

NOAA's Daily Excuse-

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Low level solar activity continued due to several C1 level flares. Three
sunspot groups remained on the visible disk, with some notable changes.
Region 2905 (S11E16, Hrx/alpha) underwent weak growth as minimal
rudimentary penumbra emerged - however, the region was inactive. Region
2906 (S29E24, Cso/beta) continued growth in the lead penumbra, while
minimal growth and some decay occurred throughout the rest of the
region. The region was also slightly unstable as it was the source of
multiple B-class flares and a C1 flare. Region 2907 (S21E49,
Dsc/beta-gamma) continued slow growth, and analysis revealed some minor
to moderate magnetic shear. This instability was evident as this region
was the source of several C-class flares; the largest a C3 flare at
14/2053 UTC.

Additionally, the most recent continuum images and magnetograms from the
NASA SDO/HMI reveal another likely one or two spot groups just beginning
to rotate into view further east of Region 2907 and near the limb. The
area is substantially foreshortened, so we await better imagery before
making any new region designations.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Low solar activity is likely, with a slight chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2 Radio Blackouts) 15-17 Dec due to active region development,
instability, and increasing activity trends.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 349 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Dec 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2905 S11E16 351 0010 Hrx 01 01 Alpha
2906 S29E24 343 0050 Cso 07 04 Beta
2907 S21E49 318 0050 Dsc 07 05 Beta-Gamma
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Dec
Nmbr Location Lo
2904 S26W79 086
II. Regions Due to Return 15 Dec to 17 Dec
Nmbr Lat Lo
2900 S27 267
2898 S26 250


SDO/HmI Intensitygram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Magnetogram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Anonymous Coward
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12/14/2021 08:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi Hugh! :)

twirl
 Quoting: Simple27


WHY CANT I GET JUAN O' DEZE?!(NOT STALKING, NOT STALKING)CAPS
The Oracle's Cookie

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12/15/2021 05:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Ben Davidson from "Suspicious Observers" group seems
to be concerned about current developments on the sun
(seems a bunch of NEW sunspots have shown up and we
have already had a C8 solar flare early this A.M. about
10:00 UTC!)

Check it out:


[link to youtu.be (secure)]
FairUSE
12-15-2021 (The "Ides of December!")

There is also a mention in Davidson's report today
about scientists being able to TRACK the inner STAR
(Sag. A.) with real-time accuracy. Doesn't THAT prove
there is NO BLACK HOLE at the center of the Milky Way?
You can't very well "track a core signal" if it is a
black hole! Curious about that part of the video.

72 to 96 hour SOLAR FLARE WATCH is called by Ben.

Heads-up! (This DOES affect weather events, by the way!)

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 12/15/2021 05:29 PM
Simple27

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12/15/2021 05:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SUNSPOT GENESIS: The sunspot number is rapidly increasing as a profusion of dark cores emerges in the sun's southern hemisphere. This 24-hour movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows sunspot genesis in action:

https://imgur.com/ZxGJaIo


The new sunspots are crackling with C-class solar flares. Stronger M-class flares may be in the offing as the sunspots continue to grow. Stay tuned.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Simple27

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12/15/2021 06:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
THE SOLAR WIND HAS ARRIVED: A stream of fast-moving (~500 km/s) solar wind hit Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of Dec. 15th. The gaseous material is flowing from a southern hole in the sun's atmosphere. So far the action of the solar wind has not been sufficient to produce a geomagnetic storm; nevertheless, Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
~*Ride the Wave*~
joinca

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12/15/2021 09:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


hiding
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Helios Maximus

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12/15/2021 11:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


Great! I hope we learn something interesting..

solar-corona
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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12/15/2021 11:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
AR 2907 produced 15 C-flares on the 15th of December including a C8. Then it went eerily quiet which I find unnerving. The BG-delta has weakened for now. I was thrilled to see Jan Alvstad of SOLEN.info agreed with me that 2907 was B-G-D magnetically. He's almost always better than NOAA's bureaucrats.

Scroll down for region summaries, his disputes with NOAA are highlighted in red:

[link to www.solen.info]

More to come....
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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12/15/2021 11:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Like most government agencies, NOAA's SWPC makes their lame excuses sound like a prudent analysis. They 'explain' how 2907 lost its Delta when they missed the Delta in the first place. Gotta laugh.

Dept. of Commerce Update--

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to C-class flares. There were five
sunspots group present on the visible disk. The most interesting region
continued to be 2907 (S21E39, Dki/beta-gamma), which underwent growth
the first half of the day, but showed signs of some decay later. The
magnetic shear weakened as the group appeared to lose a clear delta
configuration. Activity level decreased and supported the less complex
classification. The region remained the primary source of flare
activity
. Region 2908 (S21E58, Dko/beta) rotated further into view and
grew in areal coverage. However, it remained in a simple bipolar
arrangement and was inactive. New NOAA/SWPC Region 2909 (S21E70,
Dao/beta) was assigned this period and despite its size, was stable and
inactive.

An additional area of potential spot development was present over the
northern solar hemisphere near N14W00; however, we await observatory
corroboration and duration requirements before assigning as a new
region. Several narrow CMEs were observed from both the east and west
solar limb in coronagraph imagery, however, no CMEs appeared to have an
Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Low solar activity is expected, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2;
Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) on 16 Dec due primarily to the higher
flare chances from Region 2907. Analysis indicated a possible weakening
trend for Region 2907, so flare chances are anticipated to diminish
to a slight chance of M-class flares on 17-18 Dec, with low levels of
solar activity likely.

....................
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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12/16/2021 12:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ARs 2908 & 2909 have now been officially acknowledged by NOAA. These are the returning remnants of 2900 & 2898. They both look surprisingly healthy considering few spots survive a full rotation.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 350 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Dec 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2905 S11E03 350 0000 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2906 S29E09 344 0120 Dao 04 04 Beta
2907 S21E39 314 0260 Dki 08 12 Beta-Gamma
2908 S21E58 295 0300 Dko 06 06 Beta
2909 S21E70 283 0150 Dao 09 06 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z Dec
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 16 Dec to 18 Dec
Nmbr Lat Lo
2898 S26 250

I wouldn't be surprised if we get an X-flare or near-X in the next week or so.....just a hunch.

Latest Color Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Latest HMI Color Magnetogram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
The Oracle's Cookie

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12/16/2021 01:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ARs 2908 & 2909 have now been officially acknowledged by NOAA. These are the returning remnants of 2900 & 2898. They both look surprisingly healthy considering few spots survive a full rotation.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 350 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Dec 2021
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Dec
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2905 S11E03 350 0000 Axx 01 01 Alpha
2906 S29E09 344 0120 Dao 04 04 Beta
2907 S21E39 314 0260 Dki 08 12 Beta-Gamma
2908 S21E58 295 0300 Dko 06 06 Beta
2909 S21E70 283 0150 Dao 09 06 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z Dec
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 16 Dec to 18 Dec
Nmbr Lat Lo
2898 S26 250

I wouldn't be surprised if we get an X-flare or near-X in the next week or so.....just a hunch.

Latest Color Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]

Latest HMI Color Magnetogram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


Definitely think you are correct in your prediction!

I was surprised to see that visual of the sun in
Ben Davidson's video report (previous page.) He even
made the remark that they doesn't remember seeming this
fast a development of multiple sun spots before!

Here is that video again:


[link to youtu.be (secure)]
FairUSE

We'll see!

ParakeetSOON

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 12/16/2021 01:44 AM
Catseye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
bump
Forgive your enemies, it messes with their heads.

Thoughts create, mind them well.
The Oracle's Cookie

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12/16/2021 04:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Just published an hour ago (3:42 PM EST) from Youtube
channel "Nemesis Maturity" (really classy presentations
from Italy)


[link to youtu.be (secure)]
FairUSE

There has already been ONE C-CLASS-FLARE today with
7 sunspots spotted so far. Some are earth-facing but
this FIRST C-FLARE was not earth directed.

HEADS-Up!

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie

ItsBADisntIT
Cosmo888

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12/16/2021 07:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
on c line ... waving ...
Miguel
Helios Maximus

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12/16/2021 07:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Northern Hemisphere finally checks in....

THREE new active regions have appeared in the north today. One near the NE limb has already produced 4 C-flares. Another was quietly growing near mid-disk. And the third is at a high latitude near the NW limb (it appears to be quickly developing but will be gone from our view in a day or so).

This is a positive sign for the maturation of Cycle 25.

Latest SDO/HMI Intensitygram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
mistersplinter

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12/16/2021 07:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
M flare
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein
Simple27

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12/16/2021 07:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
https://imgur.com/4jMP88p


[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]
~*Ride the Wave*~
Simple27

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12/16/2021 07:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: mistersplinter


sun
~*Ride the Wave*~
Simple27

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
https://imgur.com/zYnizzz


[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]
~*Ride the Wave*~
mistersplinter

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: mistersplinter


sun
 Quoting: Simple27


M 1.2 Max
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." -- Albert Einstein
Helios Maximus

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: mistersplinter


New region AR2911 on NE limb.

GONG image:

[link to gong2.nso.edu (secure)]

hiding
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Anonymous Coward
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12/16/2021 08:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
it hasn't started dropping yet.

how long since the last m flare? two or three months?
Anonymous Coward
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12/16/2021 08:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
my bad, it just did.
Helios Maximus

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12/16/2021 08:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SolarDemon flare detector movie:

[link to wwwbis.sidc.be (secure)]
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Helios Maximus

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12/16/2021 08:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
it hasn't started dropping yet.

how long since the last m flare? two or three months?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80526196


There was an M-flare about 15 days ago, but it was over the limb far side.

farside
The will of the people is the only legitimate foundation of any government, and to protect its free expression should be our first object.

~ Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address, 1801


It is not only vain, but wicked, in a legislator to frame laws in opposition to the laws of nature, and to arm them with the terrors of death. This is truly creating crimes in order to punish them.

~ Thomas Jefferson, 1779
Anonymous Coward
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12/16/2021 08:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
it hasn't started dropping yet.

how long since the last m flare? two or three months?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 80526196


There was an M-flare about 15 days ago, but it was over the limb far side.

:farside:
 Quoting: Helios Maximus


yeah, i can't remember when the last earth-facing one was either. i'd have thought historical flare data would be easier to find.
The Oracle's Cookie

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12/16/2021 08:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Here ya go...from "Skywatchers" group at "Boppin.net"

[link to earthboppin.net]

There are currently 7 sunspots (maybe more by morning...
YEEOWWWAAH!)

cheers
The Oracle's Cookie
Anonymous Coward
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12/16/2021 08:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
someone on twitter is saying HF on dayside has been disrupted. i doubt this, but am passing it along.
Simple27

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12/16/2021 08:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

~*Ride the Wave*~
Anonymous Coward
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12/16/2021 08:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
interesting. the type II and type IV radio emission alerts were from 0300 UTC 12/16. it's 1:50 utc 12/17 right now. and the flare was at ~0:45, i think.

earlier dark filament snap preceding the m-flare?





GLP