SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

It is NOT that I don't "give a dam" about this idea
...but if you DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK...you'll find out that
solar flares are, indeed, dangerous at SOME levels.

The chart below shows just a few of the confirmed physical
dangers of higher-level solar outbursts (say over KP 6-7) and
(*as well as emotional/mental side-effects) of these flares:



Gamma Ray burst are different from solar flares, but
that is something you also would need to look into.


The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 01/29/2023 02:06 AM

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

Nice capture of a possible sun-diving comet at
the final clips of the solar tracker (on Solarham
link belw:)

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]

This link for "Solar Tracker" ends at 4:54 UTC or
around 1:00 A.M. EST--comet is in the last clips.
Looks to also be a fair sized CME at the 5:00 o'clock
position. Good start for the week!


The Oracle's Cookie

I often see scare-mongering headlines about a low M-flare of a filament CME for example. They often scream "TERRIFYING Solar Eruption Threatens Blackouts..." or some such nonsense. The worst offenders (which I won't name) seem to be so-called 'tech journals' based in India or Malaysia, but I've also seen a few from Forbes, Newsweek and other mainstream fake-news outlets.

Anyway, Scientific American has published a good analysis of what real dangers may result from Solar activity and how to weed through the over-hyped nonsense. It's something y'all should read to ground yourself in the real science of heliophysics and space weather. (Ironically, Sci-Am promotes links to their own articles with fearful click-bait titles, haha)

Here we go-

Should You Really Worry about Solar Flares?

On January 6 a powerful solar flare erupted from the surface of the sun. It was the first X-class flare—the strongest type on the flare intensity scale—in around two months. Two further X-class flares followed within the next few days, marking a distinct uptick in solar activity—and in breathless speculations that the flurry of flares could threaten us here on Earth. One U.K. tabloid raised the possibility of “major continent-wide power blackouts.” “Terrifying solar storm coming to Earth,” read another outlet’s headline.
Heliophysicists and other scientists studying “space weather” warn that flares and related solar outbursts can indeed interfere with modern life by damaging power grids, as well as by increasing radiation exposures for occupants of space habitats and high-altitude aircraft. But even so, such experts say, the risk of harm arising from inclement space weather remains far lower than many media reports often suggest. Does that mean we shouldn’t worry any time our star decides to belch in our general direction? Not exactly. Knowing what to worry about and when, however, requires proper context and perspective.

(snip)
“At this point, I do not need to convince you that we are not facing the apocalypse,” says Erika Palmerio, a heliophysicist at solar research company Predictive Science. “The point is that solar activity is rising at the moment because that is what is expected of the solar cycle.” X-class flares, for instance, are quite common during periods of heightened solar activity despite their ominous “strongest” ranking. According to Palmerio, a typical solar cycle produces almost 200 of them, with most occurring towards the maximum. Statistically speaking, that implies we can expect more than a dozen X-class flares to erupt this year alone.

(less<50%)

READ the FULL REPORT:
[link to www.scientificamerican.com (secure)]

***Caveat: Of course GLP creates the BEST DOOM titles and I enjoy them all (especially the stupid ones, LOL). Yes, I occasionally hype up an event to garner interest in, and provoke discussion of an unusual or strong eruption. But that's a rare thing from me. Dr. Tony Phillips @ spaceweather is also known to exaggerate stuff for clicks, not to mention the usual suspects on YouTube. Nuff said.

COMET 96P/Macholz--

STEREO Cor2 movie showing several CMEs and approaching Comet 96P:

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

Latest SoHO C3 image:

[link to soho.nascom.nasa.gov (secure)]

These large sungrazing comets are fun to watch! No two are alike.

I was a bit disappointed we didn't any huge eruptions from 3190 or 3192. As soon as NOAA raised the threat of X-flares and Proton events, I had a gut feeling that nothing would happen. The best X-flares happen when NOAA predicts a 1% chance.

Today we had more than 16 low C-flares from many diverse regions. A new region in the SE may be active.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 31 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jan 2023
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
3201 N24W22 352 0060 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
3204 N25W59 029 0040 Dao 06 04 Beta
3205 S22W62 033 0080 Cao 05 04 Beta
3206 S22E47 283 0010 Bxo 05 05 Beta
3207 S13E71 258 ]030 Cai 01 01 Beta

AR3207-

:Newspots_SE:
:NewSE_mag:

I remember COMET LOVEJOY back in 2011. A large Kruetz sungrazer which miraculously survived perihelion against all the predictions of its doom. We actually watched it live via SDO sailing through the corona.

COMET LOVEJOY 2011:

[link to www.cometography.com]

NASA page:

[link to www.nasa.gov (secure)]

I'lll never forget the excitement of watching it with my GLP brothers & sisters here.

[link to www.solarham.net (secure)]



You'all will want TO CHECK THE SOLARHAM SOLAR TRACKER
RIGHT NOW. IT'S WILD! (Made a smilie of it but won't be
approved prolly until tomorrow. I will post it then.)

Lots going on in the tracker tonight at 4:00 a.m. EST
with 3 cme's (I think)...comet fly-by...moon occults MARS
TODAY and something else I can't think of lol!


The Oracle's Cookie

Last Edited by The Oracle's Cookie on 01/31/2023 04:13 AM

I remember that as well...and if you check the GLP Archives
(change date to 2000 and search "Comet Lovejoy")--you can
find some others. Interesting comments on this.

I recall a (now DELETED) Youtube video from the "rogue
Astrophysicist" Dr. Nissam Harrimine (sp?) in which he
suggested that a certain COMET was feared to have been
on a trajectory to hit earth--but that it was somehow
"miraculously" diverted...He lost me a bit when he suggested
that this comet was the long-awaited (Nancy Leider and
followers) "Planet X"...and that it has now COME AND GONE
(talk about a let-down for friends who believed in Planet X)
lol!

Anyways, You don't..."THROW THE BABY OUT WITH THE BATHWATER"
...just take what resonates with you and leave the rest
behind. I still liked his delivery in his many early
videos and have hosted some of them in threads I've done
since 2012.

You may be interested to learn he has a foundation set
up to have a "unified theory" (of everything!???) And
Harrimine is trying to assist in "out of the box thinking"
(not to far-out I hope!) with this effort. Here is the link:
[link to www.resonancescience.org (secure)]

Did you see that video he did (Comet NEAT, I believe,
was his target for Planet-x)...I would love to see a copy
of that again if anyone has saved it.


The Oracle's Cookie

Nice view of the comet

https://imgur.com/kSXVAq4

Newly discovered green comet comes close to Earth

https://twitter.com/_/status/1620690524381364224

more on that:

A massive explosion on the far side of the sun recently spat out a potential X-class flare — one of the most powerful solar flares the sun is capable of producing. The resulting solar storm will narrowly miss Earth, but the sunspot responsible for belching it out could soon be pointed directly at our planet.

The epic eruption was detected on Jan. 3 by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), an Earth-orbiting spacecraft co-operated by NASA and the European Space Agency. SOHO spotted a bright stream of plasma, known as a coronal mass ejection (CME), that emerged from the sun's southeastern limb, according to Spaceweather.com(opens in new tab).

The CME was likely given off by a hidden far-side flare and registered as a C-class event, the third highest class of solar flares. (Solar flare classes include A, B, C, M and X, with each class being at least 10 times more powerful than the previous one.) But based on the size and strength of the visible CME, experts believe the hidden outburst that birthed it was probably large enough to be designated as an X-class flare, Spaceweather.com reported. But this has not been officially confirmed.

[link to www.livescience.com (secure)]








Last Edited by Digital mix guy on 02/01/2023 12:19 PM

A newly emerged sunspot is making its presence known, unleashing a powerful X-class solar flare that triggered shortwave radio blackouts across the South Pacific.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a massive solar flare on Thursday (Jan 5) at 7:45 p.m. EST (0045 GMT on Jan. 6). The outburst blasted out a glowing-hot plasma dome that lingered above the sunspot AR3182 for over an hour, according to Spaceweather.com(opens in new tab). Because of the sun's rotation, the lively sunspot will soon face Earth and could continue its explosive activity in the days ahead.

Solar flares are categorized by size into lettered groups, with X-class being the most powerful. Within each class, numbers from 1 to 10 (and beyond, for X-class flares) denote a flare's relative strength. The recent flare clocked in at X1.2, a relatively weak example of the most powerful class.


AR3182 has also been linked to the violent eruption on Tuesday (Jan. 3) that sent a coronal mass ejection (CME), a giant cloud of magnetized plasma, barrelling off into space. At the time, the sunspot was hidden on the far side of the sun and so the eruption posed no danger to Earth.

[link to www.space.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Digital mix guy on 02/01/2023 12:30 PM

Jan 19, 2023:

#solarflare #CME #sunspot

One of the biggest sunspots in years is crossing the solar disk. If you have eclipse glasses or other proper eye protection, you can see it with the unaided eye. AR 3190 is huge! It has an area of 5 Earths!!!

Best of all, it's about to explode! AR3190 has an unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. Any eruptions will be geoeffective because the sunspot is directly facing Earth.

The sun has 8 labeled active regions today. Solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class activity from Region 3196. The largest solar flare was an M1.7 at 19/10:12 UTC.

Thanks for watching!



Last Edited by Digital mix guy on 02/01/2023 03:32 PM

THIS RUNS THRU FEB. RIGHT? BUT THE CLOSEST IS LIKE UH, NOW? UH

Yes I believe that's right. I think until 2/24.

January 6:

THE SUN TODAY: 1) SSN up to 130. 2) An X1.1 flare: only 10 X flares so far this cycle, this was the 5th largest. The sun brightened by a factor of 100 in a few minutes in X-rays! 3) Nothing expected back. 4) 3 new regions (white). AR3183 growing rapidly, expecting flares from it.

https://twitter.com/_/status/1611351346568990721

CME WATCHm- 2023.01.31: No CME data has been posted on the CACTus website since the 28th January. However, it is clear from the video that there are a lot going on. Enjoy these "invisible" CMEs! :)

https://twitter.com/_/status/1620624695912697857

THE SOLAR FLYBY OF COMET 96P: Some comets like it hot--especially comet 96P/Machholz. The 6-km-wide dirty snowball just flew past the sun deep inside the orbit of Mercury and survived. Play this movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) to see the entire flyby. Researchers working with the SOHO data say they may have a surprise to share in the days ahead. Stay tuned!

https://imgur.com/ygGwj29

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 9-YEAR HIGH: In a continued sign of strength for Solar Cycle 25, sunspot counts just hit a 9-year high. This plot from NOAA shows how the monthly sunspot number skyrocketed in January 2023:

https://imgur.com/hR3ZjhW

The monthly sunspot number of 144 in January 2023 was only percentage points away from topping the previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, which peaked in Feb. 2014 with a monthly value of 146.

Originally, forecasters thought Solar Cycle 25 would be about the same as Solar Cycle 24, one of the weakest solar cycles in a century. Current trends suggest Solar Cycle 25 will surpass that low threshold, at least. Solar Maximum is not expected until 2024 or 2025, so it has plenty of time to strengthen further, bringing X-flares, geomagnetic storms and auroras.

You can follow the progression here. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov (secure)]

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

"WEAK" CME IMPACT SPARKS AURORAS: An unexpected CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 1st at 18:54 UTC, causing a 10 nanoTesla jolt in magnetometer readings from Canberra, Australia. This is considered to be a weak impact. Nevertheless, it was enough to spark auroras around the Arctic Circle:

https://imgur.com/R2dzpzK

"What an amazing night!!!" says Marianne Bergli, who photographed the display from Storfjord, Norway. "It looked like a green serpent was dancing around the Moon."

The instigating CME may have been one of many CMEs that left the sun in recent days but which, initially, did not appear to be Earth directed. When multiple CMEs overlap in coronagraph images, it can be difficult to sort out their individual trajectories. As a result of such confusion, more minor impacts are possible in the days ahead.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 9-YEAR HIGH: In a continued sign of strength for Solar Cycle 25, sunspot counts just hit a 9-year high. This plot from NOAA shows how the monthly sunspot number skyrocketed in January 2023:



The monthly sunspot number of 144 in January 2023 was only percentage points away from topping the previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, which peaked in Feb. 2014 with a monthly value of 146.

Originally, forecasters thought Solar Cycle 25 would be about the same as Solar Cycle 24, one of the weakest solar cycles in a century. Current trends suggest Solar Cycle 25 will surpass that low threshold, at least. Solar Maximum is not expected until 2024 or 2025, so it has plenty of time to strengthen further, perhaps far exceeding Solar Cycle 24. You can follow the progression here.

[link to www.spaceweather.com (secure)]

Last Edited by Digital mix guy on 02/03/2023 08:44 AM

SEEDS has been off since the 28th too....What gives?

Your news is like a month late, my friend. We try to update events daily or every few days when it's quiet.

Don't buy in to the hype that every flare is massive, terrifying or a threat to civilization. The 'blackouts' are merely brief interruptions of HF transmissions on the day-side of Earth when the D-Layer of the Ionosphere is used to bounce radio waves. Many headlines I see attempt to scare people about electric grid blackouts....ie., fake news.

Great posts but a bit late. Let us know what happened today or yesterday if you can.

I did a whole post on this last week! I guess Dr. Tony had to wait til NASA made it 'official'. LOL.

Just a reminder..... the heioseismic far side projections are completely overblown.

First of all that's not a GONG prime mission for helioseismology data, it's just a theoretical afterthought. (I've posted all the details here 2 or 3 times)

Secondly, take the recent examples promulgated by Dr. Tony Phillips-- A giant sunspot was due in the SE this week....turned out to be an expansive plage region and a few small spots. However GONG did correctly predict the large sunspot 3190 last rotation. But the 3 times before that the predicted massive sunspots failed to materialize-- a couple were spotted ARs close together or nothing at all. Every solar observer knows the 2 'New Spots' on the far side are the same 2 spots we watched for the past two weeks-- ARs 3190 & 3192. They may or may not survive the backside transit... we shall see.