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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
shenue

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03/16/2012 12:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
So what's up with the prominence on the SW corner of LASCO C2
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11696035


That happened after the comet hit the sun. It looks like its getting bigger and bigger.

Scan SOHO on the dates below to see what happened. [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

2012-03-13 to 2012-03-15

@2012/03/14 22:12 that is when the comet hit.

It looks as though the comet went through the sun and exited on the opposite side @ 2012/03/15 02:12
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10077442


WTH is this link!!

Its a page full of random symbols with a line through them 1/4 of the way in. Time to start breaking the code or what?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12511788


That's what I got too!
 Quoting: MamaHasAwakened


Right mouse click on the link and click on "copy shortcut". Then open a new browser window and 'paste' into the address bar and enter. This same thing happens to me often with links here. This is how I get around just getting a page of code.
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
MamaHasAwakened

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03/16/2012 12:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
...


That happened after the comet hit the sun. It looks like its getting bigger and bigger.

Scan SOHO on the dates below to see what happened. [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

2012-03-13 to 2012-03-15

@2012/03/14 22:12 that is when the comet hit.

It looks as though the comet went through the sun and exited on the opposite side @ 2012/03/15 02:12
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 10077442


WTH is this link!!

Its a page full of random symbols with a line through them 1/4 of the way in. Time to start breaking the code or what?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 12511788


That's what I got too!
 Quoting: MamaHasAwakened


Right mouse click on the link and click on "copy shortcut". Then open a new browser window and 'paste' into the address bar and enter. This same thing happens to me often with links here. This is how I get around just getting a page of code.
 Quoting: shenue


Thanks Shenue!
That did the trick! Glad I got to see it! What a performance!
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2012 04:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Small one/two shot from 1432/1433, C1.2 from 1432.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

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WeAreOne

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03/16/2012 04:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Did NICT get fried?

Been down a loooooong time now...
Be the change you want the World to be. Be with someone that makes you happy.
Doobie

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03/16/2012 05:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hi
NICT could be down due to the quakes in Japan? I know it was down after the big one last year.
Earth does not belong to man, man belongs to Earth
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2012 07:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Sun has decided to be quite and obedient from now on.
EW
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03/16/2012 07:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Another quick question if you dont mind, I have found a list of flares & spe's from the 50's,60's however Im not sure how to determine the direction, Im assuming back then we were only detecting earth directed ones right since we had no satelites in orbit to watch the sun like we do now?..

here is the link and directions to the page if anyone can teach me how to figure it out...

[link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov]

Then click on FTP access tab in the menu bar

Then choose solar data, then choose solar flares, then choose flares index, then choose mcmath, then choose CF115 80 TXT..

if you can show me how i can figure out if these were earth directed i would appreciate it .. mwahs!
 Quoting: EW 12458942


Just wondering if anyone had looked at this and could tell me how to figure out the direction of the flares listed..

mwahs

Enchanted
hf
 Quoting: EW 12458942

Well they would all be on the Earth-facing side of the disk since they were observed from Earth. That's some really obscure data you dug up; they list a latitude and longitude for each flare, so I guess you could plot them on a chart. Flares and CMEs are two different things you understand. I'm just not clear what you want to know. Here's a much better flare list to use (but it doesn't go back to 1950's) and they do have an archive back to 2002.

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thanks hugh, yes I know that flares and cme's are different.. havent been able to figure out which documents on that site list any known associated cme's with the flares.

Quick question if i might, I know flares dont always have a cme accompanying them, but there is always solar radiation being thrown out with a flare right?

Also, Ive tried to find info on SPE's but since im not sure what im reading i dont know if i have the right info.. Im not sure if spe means solar partical event or solar proton event.. and if you or anyone else knows could you tell me :).. also could you point me in the direction of somewhere where I can learn about what these do.. thanks a bunch

hf
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2012 08:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good Morning, we have a little action.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2012 09:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Looks like 1432 again...

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

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whiteangel
also known at WA

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03/16/2012 09:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hmmm?? [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Just one, the bottom one, showing higher reading??
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2012 10:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
New player peeking around the corner sparked a B8.8 saying hello...

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

--
shenue

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03/16/2012 11:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good Morning
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
Hugh M Eye

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03/16/2012 11:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Another quick question if you dont mind, I have found a list of flares & spe's from the 50's,60's however Im not sure how to determine the direction, Im assuming back then we were only detecting earth directed ones right since we had no satelites in orbit to watch the sun like we do now?..

here is the link and directions to the page if anyone can teach me how to figure it out...

[link to www.ngdc.noaa.gov]

Then click on FTP access tab in the menu bar

Then choose solar data, then choose solar flares, then choose flares index, then choose mcmath, then choose CF115 80 TXT..

if you can show me how i can figure out if these were earth directed i would appreciate it .. mwahs!
 Quoting: EW 12458942


Just wondering if anyone had looked at this and could tell me how to figure out the direction of the flares listed..

mwahs

Enchanted
hf
 Quoting: EW 12458942

Well they would all be on the Earth-facing side of the disk since they were observed from Earth. That's some really obscure data you dug up; they list a latitude and longitude for each flare, so I guess you could plot them on a chart. Flares and CMEs are two different things you understand. I'm just not clear what you want to know. Here's a much better flare list to use (but it doesn't go back to 1950's) and they do have an archive back to 2002.

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thanks hugh, yes I know that flares and cme's are different.. havent been able to figure out which documents on that site list any known associated cme's with the flares.

Quick question if i might, I know flares dont always have a cme accompanying them, but there is always solar radiation being thrown out with a flare right?

Also, Ive tried to find info on SPE's but since im not sure what im reading i dont know if i have the right info.. Im not sure if spe means solar partical event or solar proton event.. and if you or anyone else knows could you tell me :).. also could you point me in the direction of somewhere where I can learn about what these do.. thanks a bunch

hf
 Quoting: EW 12458942

Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEPE) is the same thing as a SEP, SPE or proton event. Here's a list of all recorded proton events from 1976-present. Note that CMEs weren't recorded until the SOHO spacecraft was operational (1997).

[link to umbra.nascom.nasa.gov]

more info here:
[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Lots of good info here, too:

[link to conceptactivityresearchvault.wordpress.com]
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2012 01:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
c flare now? [link to www.n3kl.org]
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2012 01:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
c flare now? [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


Yes and going up...
alexisj9

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03/16/2012 01:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
peaked at C1.8 for now.
shadasonic

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03/16/2012 02:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I think ace satellite is down for the count! There, usually every time I predict something it proves me wrong, so Nict should be up shortly
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
psyoptics

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03/16/2012 02:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
i have been researching into substorms and all the images and data i have found do not show a complete flip like we have been seeing.
now first is the flip a simulation glich or does it really flip.
here is the best animation of a substorm i have seen and follows how i would thought this would look.
[link to www.nasa.gov]

after going over my notes on substorms and still not find any info to help me tie this to the complete flip you guys had shown me i searched the net again.
i found this.
[link to www.nasa.gov]
once again the data is coming from the THEMIS project.

the one thing i keep finding is these substorm can be very strong and harbor energies to damage things like powergrids on earth during the reconnection.

Last Edited by psyoptics on 03/16/2012 02:42 PM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

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03/16/2012 02:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I think ace satellite is down for the count! There, usually every time I predict something it proves me wrong, so Nict should be up shortly
 Quoting: shadasonic


[link to swepam.lanl.gov]
launched Aug 25, 1997 10:39 am EST
mission lifetime 2 to 5 years.
well if we lost it....it ran10 years longer then they ever thought.

let us hope not!



Spacecraft Characteristics

Mass: 785 kg (includes 189 kg fuel)
Structure: Two octagonal decks, 1.6 m across, 1.0 m high
Propulsion: Hydazine, for insertion and maintenance in orbit
Power: 443 W, four fixed solar arrays
Attitude Subsystem: Spinning spacecraft; spin axis; Earth/Sun pointing
Communications: S-band, 7 kbps (real time), 1 Gbit (total) solid state recorders


Mission Characteristics

Launch: August 1997
Launch Vehicle: Delta II
Primary Mission: Observe energetic particles within the solar system
Mission Lifetime: 2 years/5-year goal

a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2012 03:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.

NICT uses MHD code...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

"About Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation

The real-time magnetosphere simulation is carried out using the MHD code developed by Prof. Tanaka. Input parameters are taken from the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data observed routinely by the ACE satellite. Simulation results are visualized in real time. Note all of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet."



The NASA/ISWA magnetopause simulation...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

...uses the SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere real time simulation.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Description here... [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Recent research (J. Egedal1, W. Daughton, A. Le) suggests that the MHD code used in NICT is inaccurate in the type of situation shown by the inverted magnetosphere of ISWA (they do not mention NICT but a commentor in another article linked below does). Since the research detailed in the following links was just recently released, I'm assuming that the model used in that research is not the same as is currently used by NASA/ISWA.

So here are at least three different models being used to interpret data. I'm guessing there are more. All will show different results from the same data. What we observe when we look at these simulations are NOT the actual events. They are intepretations of data subject to the inaccuracies of their various models. And the data itself is limited... so few satellites, so much space.

Links...

[link to web.mit.edu]

In addition to showing that different models produce different results this also suggests a plausable explanation for dark side of the earth events being caused by earth/sun interaction vs. cosmic origins as others have already suggested on this thread (reconnection, sub-storms, currents, etc.) (Though I'm not saying that cosmic events can't or won't affect us.)


[link to saposjoint.net] (down from the top a bit... "Mysterious electron acceleration explained")

This comment: "The reason for this discrepancy was the other work was done with the wrong model - the MHD" ...points to the pitfalls inherent in modeling.


[link to www.nature.com]

More technical... buy it ($18) and tell us what it says.


I believe what was seen in the inverted magnetosphere simulation was an inability of the modeling software to handle the data correctly. Yes there were elevated readings in the ACE data but to assume the magnetosphere actually inverted, is placing an unrealistic amount of belief in models subject to being incomplete in their methodolgy.

Kind of of like believing e=mc squared explains everything.

--
Anonymous Coward
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03/16/2012 03:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
K5+ and G1 storm... [link to www.theusner.eu]
psyoptics

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03/16/2012 05:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383


so this might just be a simulation glich. will we ever know the truth here?
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Hugh M Eye

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03/16/2012 05:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A large filament eruption near the NW limb. Two giant chunks of the big filament we've been watching. SDO is not up-to-date today, but filament lift-off and CME can be seen on the Big Bear Obs. movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

latest SDO image shows material just beginning to erupt:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

May not be earth-directed, however the possibility cannot be ruled out until we get SOHO, SDO, and STEREO all updated. Similar eruptions have been geo-effective in the past, it all depends on the size and direction of CME. Stay tuned.
Hugh M Eye

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03/16/2012 06:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.

NICT uses MHD code...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

"About Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation

The real-time magnetosphere simulation is carried out using the MHD code developed by Prof. Tanaka. Input parameters are taken from the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data observed routinely by the ACE satellite. Simulation results are visualized in real time. Note all of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet."



The NASA/ISWA magnetopause simulation...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

...uses the SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere real time simulation.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Description here... [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Recent research (J. Egedal1, W. Daughton, A. Le) suggests that the MHD code used in NICT is inaccurate in the type of situation shown by the inverted magnetosphere of ISWA (they do not mention NICT but a commentor in another article linked below does). Since the research detailed in the following links was just recently released, I'm assuming that the model used in that research is not the same as is currently used by NASA/ISWA.

So here are at least three different models being used to interpret data. I'm guessing there are more. All will show different results from the same data. What we observe when we look at these simulations are NOT the actual events. They are intepretations of data subject to the inaccuracies of their various models. And the data itself is limited... so few satellites, so much space.

Links...

[link to web.mit.edu]

In addition to showing that different models produce different results this also suggests a plausable explanation for dark side of the earth events being caused by earth/sun interaction vs. cosmic origins as others have already suggested on this thread (reconnection, sub-storms, currents, etc.) (Though I'm not saying that cosmic events can't or won't affect us.)


[link to saposjoint.net] (down from the top a bit... "Mysterious electron acceleration explained")

This comment: "The reason for this discrepancy was the other work was done with the wrong model - the MHD" ...points to the pitfalls inherent in modeling.


[link to www.nature.com]

More technical... buy it ($18) and tell us what it says.


I believe what was seen in the inverted magnetosphere simulation was an inability of the modeling software to handle the data correctly. Yes there were elevated readings in the ACE data but to assume the magnetosphere actually inverted, is placing an unrealistic amount of belief in models subject to being incomplete in their methodolgy.

Kind of of like believing e=mc squared explains everything.

--
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383

Kudos...nice post, AC. Thanks for the research on this. The link showing the 9 different modules involved in these models gives us a clue as their complexity. Many of these modules have feedback loops to the other modules. I'm still not exactly clear as what the colors are representing (J=formula)....is this energy measured in Joules?

"One joule in everyday life is approximately:
the energy required to lift a small apple one metre straight up. (A mass of about 102 g = 1⁄9.81 kg)
the energy released when that same apple falls one metre to the ground.
the energy released as heat by a person at rest, every 1/60th of a second.[5]
the kinetic energy of a 50 kg human moving very slowly (0.2 m/s).
the kinetic energy of a tennis ball moving at 23 km/h (14 mph)"

[link to en.wikipedia.org (secure)]

I don't believe folks saw what they "think" they saw. The bow-shock didn't flip (but it did look very bent-up or cracked on the dayside). I think the model was displaying the rise in energies from the magnetotail/current sheet zapping against the nightside (this is normal for a strong CME storm). The jagged appearance and flopping-around of the magnetopause on the bow-shock side is what concerns me.

remember the "Giant Breach" and "Cracks Found"?

[link to science.nasa.gov]

[link to science.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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03/16/2012 06:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A large filament eruption near the NW limb. Two giant chunks of the big filament we've been watching. SDO is not up-to-date today, but filament lift-off and CME can be seen on the Big Bear Obs. movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

latest SDO image shows material just beginning to erupt:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

May not be earth-directed, however the possibility cannot be ruled out until we get SOHO, SDO, and STEREO all updated. Similar eruptions have been geo-effective in the past, it all depends on the size and direction of CME. Stay tuned.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Only 2 SDO images in over 3 hours-WTF? SOHO 7 hours behind (unfortunately normal). There was apparently a Hyder flare (or 2-ribbon flare) along with the filament eruption to the north of the large coronal hole.

SDO composite:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

304angstom:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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03/16/2012 06:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.

NICT uses MHD code...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

"About Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation

The real-time magnetosphere simulation is carried out using the MHD code developed by Prof. Tanaka. Input parameters are taken from the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data observed routinely by the ACE satellite. Simulation results are visualized in real time. Note all of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet."



The NASA/ISWA magnetopause simulation...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

...uses the SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere real time simulation.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Description here... [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Recent research (J. Egedal1, W. Daughton, A. Le) suggests that the MHD code used in NICT is inaccurate in the type of situation shown by the inverted magnetosphere of ISWA (they do not mention NICT but a commentor in another article linked below does). Since the research detailed in the following links was just recently released, I'm assuming that the model used in that research is not the same as is currently used by NASA/ISWA.

So here are at least three different models being used to interpret data. I'm guessing there are more. All will show different results from the same data. What we observe when we look at these simulations are NOT the actual events. They are intepretations of data subject to the inaccuracies of their various models. And the data itself is limited... so few satellites, so much space.

Links...

[link to web.mit.edu]

In addition to showing that different models produce different results this also suggests a plausable explanation for dark side of the earth events being caused by earth/sun interaction vs. cosmic origins as others have already suggested on this thread (reconnection, sub-storms, currents, etc.) (Though I'm not saying that cosmic events can't or won't affect us.)


[link to saposjoint.net] (down from the top a bit... "Mysterious electron acceleration explained")

This comment: "The reason for this discrepancy was the other work was done with the wrong model - the MHD" ...points to the pitfalls inherent in modeling.


[link to www.nature.com]

More technical... buy it ($18) and tell us what it says.


I believe what was seen in the inverted magnetosphere simulation was an inability of the modeling software to handle the data correctly. Yes there were elevated readings in the ACE data but to assume the magnetosphere actually inverted, is placing an unrealistic amount of belief in models subject to being incomplete in their methodolgy.

Kind of of like believing e=mc squared explains everything.

--
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383


wow...that post should be pinned all by itself...thanks AC
El Quisqueyano

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03/16/2012 07:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.

NICT uses MHD code...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

"About Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation

The real-time magnetosphere simulation is carried out using the MHD code developed by Prof. Tanaka. Input parameters are taken from the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data observed routinely by the ACE satellite. Simulation results are visualized in real time. Note all of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet."



The NASA/ISWA magnetopause simulation...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

...uses the SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere real time simulation.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Description here... [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Recent research (J. Egedal1, W. Daughton, A. Le) suggests that the MHD code used in NICT is inaccurate in the type of situation shown by the inverted magnetosphere of ISWA (they do not mention NICT but a commentor in another article linked below does). Since the research detailed in the following links was just recently released, I'm assuming that the model used in that research is not the same as is currently used by NASA/ISWA.

So here are at least three different models being used to interpret data. I'm guessing there are more. All will show different results from the same data. What we observe when we look at these simulations are NOT the actual events. They are intepretations of data subject to the inaccuracies of their various models. And the data itself is limited... so few satellites, so much space.

Links...

[link to web.mit.edu]

In addition to showing that different models produce different results this also suggests a plausable explanation for dark side of the earth events being caused by earth/sun interaction vs. cosmic origins as others have already suggested on this thread (reconnection, sub-storms, currents, etc.) (Though I'm not saying that cosmic events can't or won't affect us.)


[link to saposjoint.net] (down from the top a bit... "Mysterious electron acceleration explained")

This comment: "The reason for this discrepancy was the other work was done with the wrong model - the MHD" ...points to the pitfalls inherent in modeling.


[link to www.nature.com]

More technical... buy it ($18) and tell us what it says.


I believe what was seen in the inverted magnetosphere simulation was an inability of the modeling software to handle the data correctly. Yes there were elevated readings in the ACE data but to assume the magnetosphere actually inverted, is placing an unrealistic amount of belief in models subject to being incomplete in their methodolgy.

Kind of of like believing e=mc squared explains everything.

--
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383


We had 2 GRB's on the 11th from the Ophiuchus Constellation. Is it possible, and I am just speculating here, That the blast shockwave from these 2 GRB's had that effect on our Magnetosphere? Earth was not hit, obviously, by the 2 jet streams that come out of the North and South from these GRB's, Had we gotten a direct hit by any of the jet streams then we would not be here. What I am wondering about is the Electromagnetic charged Gravitational Shockwave that gets disbursed at 360 degrees. If you check here;

[link to grb.sonoma.edu]

You can see the 2 GRB's are not that Far from our position in that solar system. According to where the blasts came from, Can some one here figure out if the effects on our Magnetosphere, the other day, could be linked to these 2 GRB's?
El Quisqueyano

User ID: 12576855
United States
03/16/2012 07:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A note regarding the modeling software used to interpret ACE data.

NICT uses MHD code...

[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

"About Real-Time Magnetosphere Simulation

The real-time magnetosphere simulation is carried out using the MHD code developed by Prof. Tanaka. Input parameters are taken from the real-time solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field data observed routinely by the ACE satellite. Simulation results are visualized in real time. Note all of the plots here are based on the preliminary data (ACE Real Time Data), which have not been processed yet."



The NASA/ISWA magnetopause simulation...

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

...uses the SWMF/BATSRUS magnetosphere real time simulation.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Description here... [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]



Recent research (J. Egedal1, W. Daughton, A. Le) suggests that the MHD code used in NICT is inaccurate in the type of situation shown by the inverted magnetosphere of ISWA (they do not mention NICT but a commentor in another article linked below does). Since the research detailed in the following links was just recently released, I'm assuming that the model used in that research is not the same as is currently used by NASA/ISWA.

So here are at least three different models being used to interpret data. I'm guessing there are more. All will show different results from the same data. What we observe when we look at these simulations are NOT the actual events. They are intepretations of data subject to the inaccuracies of their various models. And the data itself is limited... so few satellites, so much space.

Links...

[link to web.mit.edu]

In addition to showing that different models produce different results this also suggests a plausable explanation for dark side of the earth events being caused by earth/sun interaction vs. cosmic origins as others have already suggested on this thread (reconnection, sub-storms, currents, etc.) (Though I'm not saying that cosmic events can't or won't affect us.)


[link to saposjoint.net] (down from the top a bit... "Mysterious electron acceleration explained")

This comment: "The reason for this discrepancy was the other work was done with the wrong model - the MHD" ...points to the pitfalls inherent in modeling.


[link to www.nature.com]

More technical... buy it ($18) and tell us what it says.


I believe what was seen in the inverted magnetosphere simulation was an inability of the modeling software to handle the data correctly. Yes there were elevated readings in the ACE data but to assume the magnetosphere actually inverted, is placing an unrealistic amount of belief in models subject to being incomplete in their methodolgy.

Kind of of like believing e=mc squared explains everything.

--
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6592383


We had 2 GRB's on the 11th from the Ophiuchus Constellation. Is it possible, and I am just speculating here, That the blast shockwave from these 2 GRB's had that effect on our Magnetosphere? Earth was not hit, obviously, by the 2 jet streams that come out of the North and South from these GRB's, Had we gotten a direct hit by any of the jet streams then we would not be here. What I am wondering about is the Electromagnetic charged Gravitational Shockwave that gets disbursed at 360 degrees. If you check here;

[link to grb.sonoma.edu]

You can see the 2 GRB's are not that Far from our position in that solar system. According to where the blasts came from, Can some one here figure out if the effects on our Magnetosphere, the other day, could be linked to these 2 GRB's?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Like walking against the wind and the all of a sudden the wind comes from behind you and you get this push.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12629228
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03/16/2012 07:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
A large filament eruption near the NW limb. Two giant chunks of the big filament we've been watching. SDO is not up-to-date today, but filament lift-off and CME can be seen on the Big Bear Obs. movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

latest SDO image shows material just beginning to erupt:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

May not be earth-directed, however the possibility cannot be ruled out until we get SOHO, SDO, and STEREO all updated. Similar eruptions have been geo-effective in the past, it all depends on the size and direction of CME. Stay tuned.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Only 2 SDO images in over 3 hours-WTF? SOHO 7 hours behind (unfortunately normal). There was apparently a Hyder flare (or 2-ribbon flare) along with the filament eruption to the north of the large coronal hole.

SDO composite:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

304angstom:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

There was indeed a large CME from the NW filament eruption. Images are now trickling in. Still can't say if it's geo-effective.

STEREO Ahead image:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

SOHO C3:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

SOHO C2:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 12629228
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03/16/2012 07:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
EL Q, I have a gift for you.
First, let me state that gamma rays, like x-rays and galactic cosmic rays, do not affect the magnetosphere at all. They pass right through it. When we see an X-flare from the sun, the x-rays (along w/gamma rays) are here at light-speed (minutes) and we don't see any magnetospheric disturbance until days later and only if a CME (mass particles) also hits us. Also, when solar activity is at a high level (like recently), the amount of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth is greatly decreased as the solar wind overpowers them. It is known as the Forbush decrease.
[link to wattsupwiththat.com]
More here:
[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]

And now for you gift....scientists have created a sound translation of the 2011 Honshu earthquake and it's pretty awesome.
EQ sounds:
[link to geophysics.eas.gatech.edu]

Accompanying article:
[link to news.sciencemag.org]





GLP