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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
X-ray flux rising.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Just a C1.5, nevermind.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 08:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Every spike counts .... don't forget, this last X was a rebound C, that went to M, that went to X.

The way these sunspots are connected, one flare could set off another.

Thanks for the heads up hf
shenue

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07/13/2012 08:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
This CME is moving really fast. I have been waiting for Stereo B HI1 to update, but nada since 23:18 UT on the 12th. AARRGHH! They have been updating Ahead HI1 though and it has tore past Mercury and almost across the view of HI1
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ahead HI2 isn't going to be of much use as it is looking at this globular section of our galaxy at the moment.

If the NASA/CCMC Cone models are anywhere close to being right(and I think they are), this CME is going to hit fast and hard. The models have it arriving with the density maxed out while still cruising at over 800 km/s. This should make for a big IP shock/large deviation.

I will leave you guys with dreams of Auroras dancing in your heads. Gnite!


 Quoting: tomasgod1


Thank You for that amazing video!
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
nerdrage88sasr

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07/13/2012 09:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
hmmmm....within 3hrs .. BOHICA!
just a hunch
Peace
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
zacksavage

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07/13/2012 09:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
shenue

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07/13/2012 10:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 10:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey there 88 ... so glad to see everyone today smile_kiss

Hey Shenue, long time no see ..

I'll go with spanked any day over beat !!! hf
zacksavage

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07/13/2012 10:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey shenue,...

Barrelling??? Bbbbbarrelling???

Oh dear,...that doesn't sound good.

Hope you are well.


Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
shenue

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07/13/2012 10:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey there 88 ... so glad to see everyone today smile_kiss

Hey Shenue, long time no see ..

I'll go with spanked any day over beat !!! hf
 Quoting: TS66


Hi TS66. Hope you are well. I'm here every day, but usually don't post more than a "good morning". I don't have the knowledge to be able to contribute anything meaningful to this thread. But I definitely come here every day and I appreciate all the dedication and information that is shared here by those who understand the sun a lot better than I.
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
shenue

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07/13/2012 10:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey shenue,...

Barrelling??? Bbbbbarrelling???

Oh dear,...that doesn't sound good.

Hope you are well.


Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Hi Zack, I hope you are well, too.
Watch your thoughts; they become words. Watch your words; they become actions. Watch your actions; they become habits. Watch your habits; they become your character. Watch your character; it becomes your destiny.
nerdrage88sasr

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07/13/2012 10:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone hf


Bradford reporting 7 distinct solar regions this morning, 1520 back up to M @ 63%, and an X @ 66%/ 1521 @ 16%, and 10%

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Could get interesting again today.
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS,...Everyone.

Okay, so it's friday the 13th and I'm just sitting here and sipping some Starbucks.

Oh,...and waiting for the magnetosphere to get spanked by the sun God.

:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


spanked?...spanked?... Now that got my attention. lol

I'll tell you what else got my attention. That CME barrelling towards us.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey there 88 ... so glad to see everyone today smile_kiss

Hey Shenue, long time no see ..

I'll go with spanked any day over beat !!! hf
 Quoting: TS66


Hey all....damn, you guys posted ALOT in a couple of days....tantrum

Mid-atlantic anomoly....wonder if it will increase more due to this big X?...i got a feeling it will..as stated before..i will bring the tomato plants in if we get another X in the next 2-3 hrs...
Peace all
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
amywood71605

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07/13/2012 10:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
So what's the updated/latest forecast for when we can expect the CME to arrive? I'm still trying to learn, months of reading this thread and I'm still not anywhere near as knowledgeable as you guys. =)
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."

GO PATS!!
:Go Patriots!:
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 10:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
So what's the updated/latest forecast for when we can expect the CME to arrive? I'm still trying to learn, months of reading this thread and I'm still not anywhere near as knowledgeable as you guys. =)
 Quoting: amywood71605


This is the best source [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] . Nin has it coming in on the 14th

And the simulation

[link to www.solarham.net]
zacksavage

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07/13/2012 10:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
So what's the updated/latest forecast for when we can expect the CME to arrive? I'm still trying to learn, months of reading this thread and I'm still not anywhere near as knowledgeable as you guys. =)
 Quoting: amywood71605


This is the best source [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] . Nin has it coming in on the 14th
 Quoting: TS66


I thought Tom mentioned a few pages back,..that it was coming faster than expected TS???

Perhaps that even the O classification should be moved to rare someone said.


1dunno1

Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 10:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
So what's the updated/latest forecast for when we can expect the CME to arrive? I'm still trying to learn, months of reading this thread and I'm still not anywhere near as knowledgeable as you guys. =)
 Quoting: amywood71605


This is the best source [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] . Nin has it coming in on the 14th
 Quoting: TS66


I thought Tom mentioned a few pages back,..that it was coming faster than expected TS???

Perhaps that even the O classification should be moved to rare someone said.


1dunno1

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


I think they have it at +/- 7 hrs, with it expected at 13:00 UTC on the 14th

They keep updating on arrival time, but each source has it's own time frame

iSwa has:

Event Issue Date: 2012-07-13 07:21:45.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-14 09:17:23.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Space Weather has:

hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

[link to spaceweather.com]

Enlil has 13:00 UTC :

[link to www.solarham.net]



These space agencies don't have my full confidence.

When Nin is sure I'm sure she will update us.
mtn_mang

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07/13/2012 10:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.facebook.com]

check out this illustration of expected kp index for cme impact in the US. am i reading this right? says there could be aurora between yellow and red line
amywood71605

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07/13/2012 10:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Thanks for the responses =) Hoping for a chance to see the aurora =)
"Live each day like it's your last, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching."

GO PATS!!
:Go Patriots!:
zacksavage

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07/13/2012 10:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I think they have it at +/- 7 hrs, with it expected at 13:00 UTC on the 14th

The keep updating on arrival time, but each source has it's own time frame
 Quoting: TS66


You know,...this is all pretty amazing isn't it TS? To access all these orbiting sensors and see such clear images of solar ejections in real time. Never in the history of this planet, that we are aware of,...has this been possible.

We live in the NOW.

Friday the 13th, 20freaking12 we gather to watch and wait.

Hope your day goes well.

Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 10:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Bradford probs now 67/69.
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 11:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I think they have it at +/- 7 hrs, with it expected at 13:00 UTC on the 14th

The keep updating on arrival time, but each source has it's own time frame
 Quoting: TS66


You know,...this is all pretty amazing isn't it TS? To access all these orbiting sensors and see such clear images of solar ejections in real time. Never in the history of this planet, that we are aware of,...has this been possible.

We live in the NOW.

Friday the 13th, 20freaking12 we gather to watch and wait.

Hope your day goes well.

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


You're right, and it is absolutely amazing. I never imagined any such technology in my time. Not only because there are satellites orbiting and collecting data, but that I can access that data in my own home. Truly a great time to be alive.

Have a wonderful Z hf
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 11:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.facebook.com]

check out this illustration of expected kp index for cme impact in the US. am i reading this right? says there could be aurora between yellow and red line
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Awesome find, never saw that map before. I'm not sure about auroras in those areas. They actually reflect the potential strength of the expected geomagnetic storm for each area.

I'm in upstate NY (well mid hudson valley) and a K7-9 is nothing to sneeze at !!!

Here's a link that explains each storm level/category

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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07/13/2012 11:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Good-Day/Evening to everyone : )

Back in after a long walkies with my little Man 'Major Thom' - He is so cool(anyway,sorry)..Seagull at 3 on the dial [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Ooo.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 07/13/2012 11:12 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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07/13/2012 11:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.facebook.com]

check out this illustration of expected kp index for cme impact in the US. am i reading this right? says there could be aurora between yellow and red line
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Awesome find, never saw that map before. I'm not sure about auroras in those areas. They actually reflect the potential strength of the expected geomagnetic storm for each area.

I'm in upstate NY (well mid hudson valley) and a K7-9 is nothing to sneeze at !!!

Here's a link that explains each storm level/category

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


You can say that twice!

Kp 7-9 would be just great for my pasty British non-summer tan,perhaps if I were to add some Vegetable Oil I might tan a little quicker : ?

*Sizzle-Pop-Fryyy*
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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07/13/2012 11:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
So what's the updated/latest forecast for when we can expect the CME to arrive? I'm still trying to learn, months of reading this thread and I'm still not anywhere near as knowledgeable as you guys. =)
 Quoting: amywood71605


This is the best source [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] . Nin has it coming in on the 14th
 Quoting: TS66


I thought Tom mentioned a few pages back,..that it was coming faster than expected TS???

Perhaps that even the O classification should be moved to rare someone said.


1dunno1

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


I think they have it at +/- 7 hrs, with it expected at 13:00 UTC on the 14th

They keep updating on arrival time, but each source has it's own time frame

iSwa has:

Event Issue Date: 2012-07-13 07:21:45.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-07-14 09:17:23.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 8 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Space Weather has:

hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend.

[link to spaceweather.com]

Enlil has 13:00 UTC :

[link to www.solarham.net]



These space agencies don't have my full confidence.

When Nin is sure I'm sure she will update us.
 Quoting: TS66


They aren't sure about much of anything until right before it gets here, Nins predictions are usually way better than any agencies. This thing came out of the gate FAST. I'm wondering if theres a little more to this than they're letting on. The whole SOHO debacle is outrageous.I'm really starting to believe nasa and its cohorts are just an aesthetic blinder to a real space agency,that we aren't aware ofhuffy.

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 07/13/2012 11:14 AM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 11:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Anybody see this?

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
mtn_mang

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07/13/2012 11:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to www.facebook.com]

check out this illustration of expected kp index for cme impact in the US. am i reading this right? says there could be aurora between yellow and red line
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Awesome find, never saw that map before. I'm not sure about auroras in those areas. They actually reflect the potential strength of the expected geomagnetic storm for each area.

I'm in upstate NY (well mid hudson valley) and a K7-9 is nothing to sneeze at !!!

Here's a link that explains each storm level/category

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66


i took this quote from the article associated with the picture, wish i could find a direct link to that but will keep searching.

"With the arrival of this CME on Saturday July 14, 2012 at 10:20 UT (plus/minus 7 hours), we will most likely experience geomagnetic activities. The estimated Kp is between 6 and 8, which translates into moderate to severe geomagnetic storms.

One very positive about this event is that aurorae could be visible between the yellow and the red line. Of course the weather has to cooperate and light pollution of a city can wash out the aurorae. This time around the Moon is not playing a big role. "

the zone described is right though the middle of united states

Last Edited by mtn_mang on 07/13/2012 11:16 AM
shadasonic

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07/13/2012 11:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Anybody see this?

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 7024207


Its been posted ALOT! Thanks for the info, better to post many times than to not know!hf
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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07/13/2012 11:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
it's rising...
NiNzrez  (OP)

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07/13/2012 11:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
good morning everyone
just looked at the magnetogram images for today and there is a delta growth within the center of 1520
if this continues, we may see another major event today

for those that remember, i reported the exact same growth yesterday morning, before the X flare occurred

i will keep an eye on this and report any changes





GLP