SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

A full-halo CME is now heading towards Earth from the M3.7. The source of the flare AR2443 is sitting dead center on the sun's disk, so this CME should arrive a bit faster than the glancing blows we typically see. Any more strong eruptions from 2443 in the next 24 hours will serve to intensify the impact here.

Go to SOHO data page and select C2, 1024, Movie and 12 most recent images--you'll see the CME.

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

I'm sure the movies will be out on the web in a few hours.

Sweden: Solar flare causes flight delays

Stockholm (AFP) - A solar flare briefly disabled radar at Sweden's largest airports on Wednesday causing significant flight delays, the Civil Aviation Authority (LFV) said.

"At 3:45 p.m. (2:45 p.m. GMT), solar storms had disrupted the Earth's magnetic field, causing radar malfunctions here in Sweden," said LFV spokesman Per Froberg.

"We had to close the airspace," he added, which delayed airplane departures and landings at several airports.

[link to news.yahoo.com]

[link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]

[link to pbs.twimg.com (secure)]



Last Edited by Simple27 on 11/04/2015 02:06 PM

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Thanks 27 was just going to post this. Looks like this is going to come in right behind the CH storm, definitely can feel the energy today.

Well Hugh we were wishing for a full Halo, interesting the vid shows what appears to be quite a release of plasmatic energy. We may see a good storm from this .....if it actually arrives.lol


edit: some of the views aren't showing as big of a release as I thought, we watch and wait.

Last Edited by shadasonic on 11/04/2015 03:40 PM

That CME video is not quite right. Try this CACTus Details:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

First off---this CME is squarely Earth-directed. It's not a major Carrington-level ejection, but it is well-aimed at the Earth.

Secondly, I have some misgivings about the CACTus computer readouts. My guess is that this CME's velocity is closer to 700-900 km/s, not the paltry 563 km/s listed. I believe there is a perspective bias. A cloud of plasma leaving the sun at a 90-degree angle (from the limb) APPEARS TO BE faster than a cloud coming straight at you as it gradually spread out. The latter is actually faster. You would think that the geniuses who program these supercomputers would factor this into their calculations. I'm unconvinced.....though sometimes they edit and repost their corrected findings.

LOOKOUT EARTH!

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[/youtube]

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Nothing will happen, auroras are ready :D

NASA forecast for CME arrival time is late Friday night (EST) to early Saturday morning.

Event Issue Date: 2015-11-04 15:58:21.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2015-11-07 08:40:14.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 24 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 5.3 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

NASA's experimental CME Scoreboard:

[link to kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I'm thinking it may arrive sooner rather than later this time. Usually it's a day late, but this one may sneak up on us quicker....just a hunch.

.

Thanks for the info and link Hugh : )

In that YT video the part they are saying is non earth directed is just that one part on the left in between the white lines. You can see the area I'm referring to on the video's thumbnail. I probably should've mentioned that part because it can be misleading...

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

[link to www.solarham.net]

We got 2448 coming and what looks to be some decent development going on around the corner. I do like me some solar action!

Great work everyone! Thanks.

Right back at ya!

I thought this was a good video : )


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

They've finally uploaded this video.

'potentially'

lol


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Thread: Ozone Hole!!!!!!& The Sun!!!!We May Be in Trouble!!!NCOMING CME, CHANCE OF STORMS ON NOV 7th:


we are not safe right now

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]


Well from the simulation we're going to catch one of the bigger plasmatic sections. This could be a good storm depending on the incoming polarity. Its been awhile since we had one that looks this dense, but anymore I've got to see it to believe it.

Another video of the M3.7


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]

Whoa, about 2/3 rds of the North Hemisphere looks like a coronal hole!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Incoming CME may be stronger than predicted....it all depends on the Bz. If it turns South we may see a K=6 or k=7; but if it goes North we'll get only a k=4 or k=5 (G1). I think we'll see a high proton density which we lack during the glancing blows. Impossible to predict, so I'm just going on intuition.

CACTus has actually LOWERED the median velocity of the incoming CME to 488 km/s. I still guess it's nearly double that!

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

NOAA's GEOSPACE .Forecast...

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (06 Nov) as CH HSS effects continue to subside. Quiet to unsettled
conditions early on day two (07 Nov) are expected to increase to active
to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels beginning at around 07/1500 UTC
due to the anticipated arrival of the 04 Nov CME. The geomagnetic field
is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on
day three (08 Nov) due to waning CME influence in addition to the onset
of a positive polarity CH HSS.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Any large eruption from 2445 beyond the west limb may cause a proton event. Earth's magnetic footpoint is right on the NE limb.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Thanks, Simple! Absolutely awesome......

Hugh I went to give you a 1 month upgrade but it would not let me so when ever you sign up I have 100 green with your name on it

Kinda freaken out this look like a perfect upside down triangle


[link to www.spaceweather.com]

coronalhole

And thank you for all of your wonderful info Hugh!

Huge!

We have a much faster CME than they thought. Incoming early particles now hitting.


[link to services.swpc.noaa.gov]


Speed was above 650 at one point and the Bz is flip flopping all over. Proton count just started to rise.


[link to www.solarham.net]

Last Edited by shadasonic on 11/06/2015 04:05 PM

I'm hoping this isn't all we get and is just the initial pop, its hard to tell the simulation had us getting hit pretty hard while looking at several movies it seemed to head south.